Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober the Two Best Reasons for Twins' Deadline Inaction

[Cody Christie]

Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan have continued to perform at a high level while helping the Twins contend in the AL Central. So, is the team comfortable with these two arms starting playoff games?

 

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski - USA Today Sports

Minnesota entered the 2023 playoffs with Pablo López and Sonny Gray leading the rotation. Both players finished the season among the AL’s best pitchers in multiple statistical categories, and the team had the one-two punch that fans had longed for at the top of the rotation. It was a dynamic duo that helped the Twins end their playoff drought, but it takes more than two starters to win in October. 

Behind López and Gray, there were some question marks for the Twins. Bailey Ober had pitched well during the regular season with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. However, he pitched more innings than in any previous professional season, so there were some concerns about his workload. Joe Ryan pitched at an All-Star level in the season’s first half before trying to hide a groin injury and seeing his performance suffer. The Twins avoided using him in October, until it was no longer possible to do so. Ober got lit up for six earned runs against the Astros, and Ryan was allowed to pitch only two innings.

The Twins are in a much different spot in 2024. Gray left the team in free agency, and López has struggled at some points. Minnesota was interested in adding starting pitching at the trade deadline, but no deals came to fruition. Now, they must turn to Ober and Ryan to qualify for the playoffs and make an extended run in October. So, what’s changed with these two pitchers since last season, and can they fit the mold of playoff-caliber starters?

Bailey Ober’s 2024 Improvements
Ober’s first start was disastrous, as he allowed eight earned runs on nine hits in 1 1/3 innings versus the Royals. Since that start, he has posted a 3.17 ERA with a 120-to-26 strikeout-to-walk rate in 113 2/3 innings. He’s pitched six innings or more in seven straight starts, establishing himself as one of the AL’s most consistent pitchers. Ober began his career with injury concerns and workload limits but now has a 114 ERA+ in over 400 big-league innings. 

Ober has seen some changes this season that have impacted his overall performance. He’s known for his control, but he’s seen a slight increase in his walk rate, from 5.0% in 2023 to 6.0% in 2024. While this might not be intentional, pitchers who are strike-throwers can get a reputation, making it easier for batters to make contact. He also introduced a cutter this season, throwing it nearly 22% of the time. Opponents have posted a .291 xwOBA against the pitch, with a 20.8 Put Away %, his second-highest total outside his changeup. 

Joe Ryan’s 2024 Improvements
Ryan has been arguably Minnesota’s best starting pitcher this season, with his xwOBA, BB%, and xERA all ranking in the top 9% or higher among qualified MLB starters. He's cut his own walk rate in half over the last two seasons, from 7.8% in 2022 to 3.9% this season. Ryan has pitched five innings or more in every start this season, averaging over six innings per start. He’s also done a better job at keeping the ball in the park, with his home run rate dropping from a career-high 1.8 per nine innings last season to 1.2 this year. It’s these small changes that have made a big difference for Ryan.

One of the biggest knocks against Ryan as a prospect was his reliance on his unique fastball. He was able to dominate in the high minors with a deceptive fastball up in the zone, but that pitch wasn’t going to be as successful at the MLB level. His fastball usage has dropped from over 60% in 2022 to 48.3% this season, while holding batters to a .195 BA. His splitter has also shown improved performance this season, with the pitch being worth -4 runs last season and providing positive value in 2024. Ryan has continued to improve at the big-league level in one of the most successful pitching developments for the current front-office regime.

It would have been great for the Twins to add a frontline starting pitcher at the trade deadline, but that would have taken significant prospect capital that the front office wasn’t willing to surrender. Ober and Ryan have significantly improved, and are more than capable of being playoff-caliber starters. Health and continued strong performance from these two pitchers will be critical to the team’s playoff success this season. However, the Twins must feel confident in this duo being playoff-caliber starters.

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Do you trust Ober and Ryan to make starts in October? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[LA Vikes Fan]

At this moment, I would say Ober yes, Ryan.... maybe. IF the playoffs started today i would pitch Lopez, then Ober, then Ryan. Hopefully, we'll be playing in October, both these guys and Lopez will be healthy, and we'll get a chancel out see. 

[weitz41]

NONESENSE! Referring to the title. They are imo why you go for it. End of silly excuses.

 

[Beast]

No, they had nothing to do with the deadline inaction.

They’re one of the major reasons they’re currently occupying a playoff spot (potentially temporarily, as we saw everyone around them get better).  If it weren’t for them pitching as well as they did, they’d already be on the outside looking in.

If someone brought that up in a meeting as a reason to not add to the bullpen, or fill the rotation spot behind them that would certainly get used in a playoff series (if they make the playoffs), they’re incompetent and should be fired.

There was only one reason they sat on their hands.  And ownership should be called out on it and ridiculed at every turn.

[mikelink45]

This is our team. It's got us this far and I think could catch the guardians but if not it's as good as we're going to have. Based on the quality of the relief picture they treated for, I think what we have is as good as can be and we can forget about acquiring players that might cost us anything.  

[tony&rodney]

Im more concerned about the hitting and defense.

[sftwinsfan]

Obviously, both would get starts, Ryan scares me a little more than Ober. He seems to get away with a lot over the middle, we'll see how that goes against the better lineups in the postseason. He deserves a start though. That said, it wouldn't be a valid reason not to make a trade. If Woods-Richardson and Festa falter down the stretch, and/or the bullpen blows game after game, there likely won't even be a post-season. They still have a shot, but there was ample room for improvement. 

[Craig Arko]

Won’t make a lot of difference if the team can’t score. They’re good, but not perfect. 

[bean5302]

16 minutes ago, Beast said:

...There was only one reason they sat on their hands.  And ownership should be called out on it and ridiculed at every turn.

Agreed. I don't expect to be a season ticket holder next year. I need to "right size" my attendance.

[Colbeh]

I still like next year as the year to start pushing all the chips in. We'll enter the off-season with 6-7 top 100 prospects and hopefully better clarify on payroll (could also be reduced again). 

We'll have Lopez, Ober, and Ryan as our big 3. Now we find out what have in SWR, Festa, Varland, Matthews, and Paddack (I have confidence in him next year with a rested arm). 

We can shop around in the off-season and pay less of a premium on a solid controllable starter. 

The Twins future is bright and we have alot of controllable big leaguers and a ton of promising prospects. FO has done a hell of a job the past few years!

[bean5302]

13 minutes ago, Colbeh said:

I still like next year as the year to start pushing all the chips in. We'll enter the off-season with 6-7 top 100 prospects and hopefully better clarify on payroll (could also be reduced again). 

We'll have Lopez, Ober, and Ryan as our big 3. Now we find out what have in SWR, Festa, Varland, Matthews, and Paddack (I have confidence in him next year with a rested arm). 

We can shop around in the off-season and pay less of a premium on a solid controllable starter. 

The Twins future is bright and we have alot of controllable big leaguers and a ton of promising prospects. FO has done a hell of a job the past few years!

Gleeman thinks the Twins will cut payroll even further this offseason. If ownership is unwilling to even make a minor salary pick up to grab Flaherty when the team is poised for the playoffs, I wouldn't hold my breath on what they'll do in the offseason. Even Cleveland was more in at the deadline than Minnesota.

By the way, the AL Central is winnable this year. The Royals are building. The Tigers are building. There's no guarantee the Twins are even in a position to be .500 next year. A couple injuries, and we're cooked.

[Colbeh]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Gleeman thinks the Twins will cut payroll even further this offseason. If ownership is unwilling to even make a minor salary pick up to grab Flaherty when the team is poised for the playoffs, I wouldn't hold my breath on what they'll do in the offseason. Even Cleveland was more in at the deadline than Minnesota.

By the way, the AL Central is winnable this year. The Royals are building. The Tigers are building. There's no guarantee the Twins are even in a position to be .500 next year. A couple injuries, and we're cooked.

Which is why hoarding prospects and letting them gain a little more value this year is more important than paying a premium at the trade deadline.

If they're cutting payroll and ownership wants to still contend next year, then we're going to have to package up some players.

Getting a rental 4th starter and lefty reliever isn't worth the hefty price tag when those same players plus a little extra can get us a controllable starter with better upside this offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Colbeh said:

I still like next year as the year to start pushing all the chips in. We'll enter the off-season with 6-7 top 100 prospects and hopefully better clarify on payroll (could also be reduced again). 

We'll have Lopez, Ober, and Ryan as our big 3. Now we find out what have in SWR, Festa, Varland, Matthews, and Paddack (I have confidence in him next year with a rested arm). 

We can shop around in the off-season and pay less of a premium on a solid controllable starter. 

The Twins future is bright and we have alot of controllable big leaguers and a ton of promising prospects. FO has done a hell of a job the past few years!

Next year never seems to come. It's always next year. 

[Colbeh]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Next year never seems to come. It's always next year. 

Isn't it almost a daily discussion here about us trading for Mahle, Jorge Lopez and Sam Dyson?

Twins were competing with 20 other teams for the same player on a tight deadline/budget. FO made the right call.

[Jocko87]

23 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Next year never seems to come. It's always next year. 

New to sports?

[NYCTK]

Fun Fact our ownership might not know: Ober, Ryan, and Lopez can only start up to 60% of the remaining games in the season and they're only 2 games up in the Wild Card slots. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

This is our team. It's got us this far and I think could catch the guardians but if not it's as good as we're going to have. Based on the quality of the relief picture they treated for, I think what we have is as good as can be and we can forget about acquiring players that might cost us anything.  

Honesty I think they're more likely to fall out of the playoffs at this point than winning the Central. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Colbeh said:

We'll enter the off-season with 6-7 top 100 prospects

What are smoking? Cause I want some. 4 maybe? Possibly 5.

[TheLeviathan]

This isn't a good reason.  The truth is....there was almost nothing good available this year.

It's still disappointing, however.  There were ok options that could have been had.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Colbeh said:

Which is why hoarding prospects and letting them gain a little more value this year is more important than paying a premium at the trade deadline.

If they're cutting payroll and ownership wants to still contend next year, then we're going to have to package up some players.

Getting a rental 4th starter and lefty reliever isn't worth the hefty price tag when those same players plus a little extra can get us a controllable starter with better upside this offseason.

...that's what you got from my post? That's certainly not the point I'm attempting to make or a point I consider valid.

Remember back in 2011 when the Twins were expected to make the playoffs? How'd that turn out? The Twins were favorites after 2010. They were expected to be perennial contenders. 
They had can't miss prospects like on this list
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/10/19/1091423/top-20-minnesota-twins-prospects

Not one of those prospects truly panned out as expected in the near future. Gibson was the only one of them who made a significant contribution for the Twins before 2015, but he was far from the ace the Twins were hoping for. Miguel Sano was the only other MLB regular starter who came out of our top 20.

Teams who horde prospects are almost universally known as "rebuilding." They typically rock out to 90 loss seasons, and when the door opens, they spend money, trade prospects and go for a title. Baltimore is putting their money where their mouth is. Kansas City is putting their money where their mouth is. Pittsburgh refused to trade away assets. Even pathetic, perennially cash strapped, lowly Cleveland acquired talent at the deadline.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think some people are mistaking activity (or a lack of it from the Twins) with productivity.   The Dodgers got better, but how many teams actually got better and how many were just shuffling chairs on the deck?  I would have loved to get Flaherty, but beyond that there weren't that many realistic targets for the Twins to trade for that would be difference makers.

I think that the Twins are pretty solid and will likely challenge the Guardians for the division title.  Will they catch them?  Not sure, but it should be fun to watch and find out.  In the meantime, I'm gonna cheer for the guys we have (like Ober and Ryan) rather than lament the pipe dreams that didn't materialize.  Complaining about the Pohlad family's money and cheapness just gets me sweaty and frustrated.  That doesn't change it or make me feel better. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Remember back in 2011 when the Twins were expected to make the playoffs? How'd that turn out? The Twins were favorites after 2010. They were expected to be perennial contenders. 
They had can't miss prospects like on this list
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/10/19/1091423/top-20-minnesota-twins-prospects

Not one of those prospects truly panned out as expected in the near future. Gibson was the only one of them who made a significant contribution for the Twins before 2015, but he was far from the ace the Twins were hoping for. Miguel Sano was the only other MLB regular starter who came out of our top 20.

While those prospects weren't as highly regarded as the ones the Twins have at the top of their list right now, that's really a depressing list.  (Who can forget the Tom Stuifbergen era?).  I do think the Twins have some prospects that will turn out, the simple fact remains that most of them won't, and then they won't have any value at all.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think some people are mistaking activity (or a lack of it from the Twins) with productivity.   The Dodgers got better, but how many teams actually got better and how many were just shuffling chairs on the deck?  I would have loved to get Flaherty, but beyond that there weren't that many realistic targets for the Twins to trade for that would be difference makers.

I think that the Twins are pretty solid and will likely challenge the Guardians for the division title.  Will they catch them?  Not sure, but it should be fun to watch and find out.  In the meantime, I'm gonna cheer for the guys we have (like Ober and Ryan) rather than lament the pipe dreams that didn't materialize.  Complaining about the Pohlad family's money and cheapness just gets me sweaty and frustrated.  That doesn't change it or make me feel better. 

Okay so why didn't the Twins get Flaherty? He went for the equivalent of Schobel and De Andrade. I think fans, especially fans who invested in the team for a season ticket package like myself, deserve to be ticked off. We put our money into the team. Now, obviously everything will be forgiven if the Twins win the World Series, but if they don't... even if they make it and watch a winnable game go south with a guy like Ober or Woods Richardson coughing up rough start vs. Flaherty who pitches excellent, there will be the what if. What if the ownership of the Twins was better?

[Colbeh]

21 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

What are smoking? Cause I want some. 4 maybe? Possibly 5.

Sure take out Lee and Festa assuming they make the service time cut off.

Jenkins, Rodriguez, Matthews, and Keaschall if things stay the same. Assuming 10-20 of the top 100 graduate then we're looking at possibly Raya and Soto since they're young and have been pitching well.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

39 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Okay so why didn't the Twins get Flaherty? He went for the equivalent of Schobel and De Andrade. I think fans, especially fans who invested in the team for a season ticket package like myself, deserve to be ticked off. We put our money into the team. Now, obviously everything will be forgiven if the Twins win the World Series, but if they don't... even if they make it and watch a winnable game go south with a guy like Ober or Woods Richardson coughing up rough start vs. Flaherty who pitches excellent, there will be the what if. What if the ownership of the Twins was better?

And what if they were worse?   Ask the A’s.  Ask the pre-Pohlad owned Twins.  
I would love a great pickup. I can’t control that. It didn’t happen.  I’ve moved on to the next game and I will continue to enjoy baseball.  

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, Colbeh said:

I still like next year as the year to start pushing all the chips in. We'll enter the off-season with 6-7 top 100 prospects and hopefully better clarify on payroll

We could have been as active as any team in baseball and STILL entered the offseason with all the precious "top 100 prospects." They'd still be there, for folks to salivate over.

 

Why? Not a single top 100 prospect changed hands this deadline. 

Not one.

Zip.

Zilch.

Nada.

You can look it up.

We could have had Puk and Flaherty.  Maybe a better outfielder than Margot.

All without costing a single one of those, based on what they actually cost. 

 

 

 

side note: It won't be 6 or 7, BTW.

[GNess]

I and I assume most of us on TD are. not billionaires so I (we) can't fully grasp what financial pressures the ownership of a MLB team face. (Yes, I understand that the value of MLB franchises over time have a strong tendency to grow considerably.)

However, it seems they have an obligation to the fans and regions in which they operate to do their best to pursue reasonable actions to create the best opportunity to win games and contend for the World Series title as often as they can.

The offseason didn't move the needle at all, and the trade deadline was a bust. (No offense intended to the new RP.)

It won't make me care about the Twins any less, but it will make me long for the day that  the Pohlads sell the team to someone or some group interested in competing and overall excellence.

 

[Mark G]

6 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

And what if they were worse?   Ask the A’s.  Ask the pre-Pohlad owned Twins.  
I would love a great pickup. I can’t control that. It didn’t happen.  I’ve moved on to the next game and I will continue to enjoy baseball.  

I know exactly how you feel.  I wanted a great pickup too, but I had to settle for a Corolla.  Oh well........🫠

[Karbo]

I wonder how hot Falvey's seat is getting? If they can't make the playoffs this year Would they turn over the FO and coaching staff?

[Doctor Gast]

Do you trust Ober and Ryan to make starts in October? We really don't have choice.

Deadline is really a bad time to look for a top-tier SP or even a decent SP. Last offseason was the time & we blew it.

Gonzales should have been flipped right away for a decent return. Instead of watching his rank & value keep dipping.

Puk was very gettable. They should have made a decent offer well before the deadline. That'd have settled the natives pretty quickly.