Marlins Trevor Rogers Remains Twins Best Hope in Waning Hours of Trade Deadline

[Theodore Tollefson]

The Twins remain one of just two teams who have not made a trade, in the waning hours before the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline. There's still hope a move could be made before 5 PM, though, and the Marlins may have the best target onto which the front office could lock its sights.

Image courtesy of Thomas Shea - USA Today Sports

Only about six hours remain until the trade deadline, and the Twins are still without external reinforcements. Fewer players than usual remain on the open market in the final hours of this year’s deadline, as teams have steadily made moves since last Thursday. 

One player whose market is heating up is Marlins left-handed starter, Trevor Rogers. The 26-year-old lefty has had a mediocre season with Miami, posting a 4.53 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across 105 ⅓ innings in 21 starts. 

Rogers's price on the market will be considerable, as he’s arbitration-eligible and can remain under team control through the 2026 season. However, with slim pickings left for the Twins to trade for in their desperate need to add rotation depth, Rogers is another Marlins starter whom this team could try to revamp into an All-Star--er, an All-Star again. 

As fellow Twins Daily writer Lucas Seehafer pointed out on Twitter, the Twins' player development and coaching staff has found a way to get the most out of a former Marlins starter very recently, in Pablo López. Like López, Rogers possesses a changeup and sinker in his arsenal, and has an intriguing arm slot. 

López has taken a step back in terms of how good his changeup has been this season, compared to last year. But the numbers on that offering in 2023 were a testament to the value of the Twins' ability to augment an already successful hurler. Maybe they would look to add a sweeper for Rogers, as they did with López. 

This season, hitters have a .306 batting average off Rogers's changeup, the highest out of any of his four pitches, but his opponents' wOBA of .329 off the changeup is the lowest of the four. This is just a place for the Twins to start helping Rogers get on a better path, like they did with López, but the relevance of any of this depends on their willingness to go in on him at a high price point. 

In addition to the work that could be done with Rogers's changeup, his fastball velocity has seen a decline since his 2021 All-Star season.  Back then, Rogers averaged 94.5 MPH on his heater, compared to the 92.5 MPH he has on it now. The Twins have been able to help pitchers improve their velocity, whether they be draft prospects like Louie Varland going through the system or a veteran like López, who went from averaging 93.4 MPH on his fastball with Miami in 2022 to 95 MPH in his tenure with the Twins.

It's becoming a tradition: any time the Marlins make the playoffs, they disassemble the team at the trade deadline the very next season. This is yet another year of that, as the Marlins squeezed into the second N.L. Wild Card spot last season and were swept out of the playoffs by the Phillies. Now, it’s only a matter of who the Marlins would want in return for a left-handed starter with two and a half years of control left. 

Luke Keaschall is a likely name to come up in any conversations, but the Twins were able to acquire López and some prospects for Luis Arráez a year and a half ago. It’s possible they could get a second Marlins starter to bring back into All-Star form, without having to empty their farm system.

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[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The Twins are going to sit this one out. It is what it is.

Hopefully...

1. Correa gets back soon.

2. Stewart works through the rust.

3. Topa can be effective.

4. Duran is more consistent.

5. SWR and Festa can handle the pressure.

 

[nicksaviking]

I'm not against it, but I'm really only interested in guys with upside and I think Rogers can only regain that upside if he can increase that velocity. The Twins have been good at doing that lately, but is that the case here? With his history of arm troubles, it might not be possible, or even smart to try.

[Rhyno006]

Quote

... 4.53 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across 105 ⅓ innings in 21 starts.

If that's what Rogers has put up this year in NL then no thanks, I'd rather roll with SWR, Pollack, Festa, etc. The only reason I'd take him would be to have a southpaw in the rotation, but the price sounds like a hard pass to me.

[weneedneshek]

If he can be had without giving up any top prospects (soto is probably as high as I'd go) then i'd be fine with it. Otherwise no

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Rodgers is pretty far removed from his only good season in 2021, and it seems like a lot of that season's effectivity was predicated on painting the edges of the zone. He's lost 2.5 mph and his control was bad last year with all the arm injuries and hasn't really come back this year. Right now he has mediocre stuff which doesn't get whiffs and gets barreled up often. 

Might be a good buy low candidate if the Marlins are just done with him, but I wouldn't give up much on a reclamation project that doesn't move the needle this year. 

[Doctor Gast]

MIA has been on my radar for a while, I like what Stotlemeyer has done with their pitchers there. Rogers & Cabrera are candidates if the Twins think that they can make the needed tweaks necessary to take them to the next level. It could very likely take Keaschall but I'd think  MIA'd settle for a couple or more lesser-valued prospects instead. Big emphasis on if 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Similar to Kikuchi,  I think the value of a pitcher who has potentially more stuff is going to be much more expensive than a SP like Fedde.  Will know here shortly.  Thinking we will stand pat.  

[Karbo]

57 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

The Twins are going to sit this one out. It is what it is.

Hopefully...

1. Correa gets back soon.

2. Stewart works through the rust.

3. Topa can be effective.

4. Duran is more consistent.

5. SWR and Festa can handle the pressure.

 

That is a lot of hope!

[Karbo]

58 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not against it, but I'm really only interested in guys with upside and I think Rogers can only regain that upside if he can increase that velocity. The Twins have been good at doing that lately, but is that the case here? With his history of arm troubles, it might not be possible, or even smart to try.

I question if they could do much in season, or if they would need an off season plus driveline?

[Rosterman]

Kepler, Margfot, Farmer and Vasquez could all go.

Julien, Kirilloff, WInder are expendable.

The Twins have names leaving the organization like Helman, WIlliams, Keirsey, Isola, Fjardo, Shuffied, that could be major league ready. Names like Winkel, Schobel, McCusker, Sabato, Fedko, may get passed.

The Twins do have to cut out some minor league roster space for the draftee signees. Better to do it in trade than just release guys, too.

[mini_tb]

I believe the word is "waning"

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

9 minutes ago, Karbo said:

That is a lot of hope!

Yup. It's what we're left with as Twins' fans :(

[CRF]

Uh...no thanks. Just do nothing, like everyone expects, and get on with the rest of the season. 

[adjacent]

There was a rumor that the Yankees were offering Cortes. I don't know what they were asking.

[Beast]

You would think watching the pitching staff get absolutely throttled last night would’ve driven home the message.  Guess not.

Nobody will like this, but stick a fork in this team.  They needed career first halves out of 3/4 of the lineup, including Correa, and Ryan, Ober, SWR, and some of the relievers to stay within 5.5 games of the division and barely hang onto a wild card spot.  The regression is coming and this team very well could be on the outside looking in.

What an epic disappointment and garbage ownership group (bUt DoNt SaY tHeYrE cHeAp).  They sold this rebuild cycle since drafting Royce, and they yank the rug out just when it gets rolling.  Absolute joke.

[Theodore Tollefson]

That was fun for a good hour and a half 

[mickster]

6 minutes ago, Theodore Tollefson said:

That was fun for a good hour and a half 

Rodney Dobnak looks like the add  LMAO

[Jocko87]

For Conner Norby. Who's our Norby equivalent?

[nicksaviking]

We still got time for a few more of these articles today.

[LambchoP]

Yup, guess we're staking our "upgrade" hopes on Dobnak dnd Topa lol. Wouldn't be surprised if KC passes us up and we miss the playoffs altogether:(

[clone52]

8 minutes ago, Theodore Tollefson said:

That was fun for a good hour and a half 

Orioles gave up their #5 prospect, a 2B/OF, but not a top 100 guy.  I'm sure the Marlins asked the Twins for Keaschall and the Twins turned them down.  Hopefully the Twins offered Tanner Schobel and the Marlins turned them down.

Probably safe to stick with Keaschall.  If Keaschall keeps hitting and there isn't room for him on the roster, he'd be a great trade chip next year again.

[clone52]

Just now, LambchoP said:

Yup, guess we're staking our "upgrade" hopes on Dobnak dnd Topa lol. Wouldn't be surprised if KC passes us up and we miss the playoffs altogether:(

I'm sure Dobnak is a stop gap and it'll be interesting to see if anyone would have liked the trade cost for any SPs that get moved (so far, I'm guessing not).

If Topa were a trade deadline bullpen pickup, fans probably would have been okay with it.  Getting him healthy is like a trade deadline pickup.

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

For Conner Norby. Who's our Norby equivalent?

Here's our Nordbe....no wait. You said Norby.

Nm

[hitterscount]

9 minutes ago, Beast said:

You would think watching the pitching staff get absolutely throttled last night would’ve driven home the message.  Guess not.

Nobody will like this, but stick a fork in this team.  They needed career first halves out of 3/4 of the lineup, including Correa, and Ryan, Ober, SWR, and some of the relievers to stay within 5.5 games of the division and barely hang onto a wild card spot.  The regression is coming and this team very well could be on the outside looking in.

What an epic disappointment and garbage ownership group (bUt DoNt SaY tHeYrE cHeAp).  They sold this rebuild cycle since drafting Royce, and they yank the rug out just when it gets rolling.  Absolute joke.

You are spot on. They will be lucky to hold on to a wildcard spot. Doing nothing to improve the current roster since last winter is inexcusable and insulting to the fan base. The cheap ass owners sign Correa and then wash their hands and are comfortable with slashing the payroll. Not real sold on the BP, but another starter is badly needed to. make the playoffs, Rogers does nothing to address this area,

[Jocko87]

3 minutes ago, clone52 said:

Orioles gave up their #5 prospect, a 2B/OF, but not a top 100 guy.  I'm sure the Marlins asked the Twins for Keaschall and the Twins turned them down.  Hopefully the Twins offered Tanner Schobel and the Marlins turned them down.

Probably safe to stick with Keaschall.  If Keaschall keeps hitting and there isn't room for him on the roster, he'd be a great trade chip next year again.

He was a top 100 guy last year.  Currently fangraphs #19 and a 40 fv.  I thought he was Colby Mayo for a second.  Keaschall would have been a lot more but Schobel seems about right.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, clone52 said:

I'm sure Dobnak is a stop gap and it'll be interesting to see if anyone would have liked the trade cost for any SPs that get moved (so far, I'm guessing not).

If Topa were a trade deadline bullpen pickup, fans probably would have been okay with it.  Getting him healthy is like a trade deadline pickup.

I would not at all have been happy with a 33 year old reliever with 1 good MLB season who hasn't pitched in the majors at all this year as the deadline pickup. I don't view him as "like a trade deadline pickup" at all. I view him as a wild card lottery ticket we hope is useful this year.

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, clone52 said:

Orioles gave up their #5 prospect, a 2B/OF, but not a top 100 guy.  I'm sure the Marlins asked the Twins for Keaschall and the Twins turned them down.  Hopefully the Twins offered Tanner Schobel and the Marlins turned them down.

Probably safe to stick with Keaschall.  If Keaschall keeps hitting and there isn't room for him on the roster, he'd be a great trade chip next year again.

Julien might be the better comp since both he and Norby have already started their service time clock. Looks like they also got left handed OF Kyle Stowers. Maybe he's a step down from someone like Trevor Larnach? Not sure. Possible step up.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I would not at all have been happy with a 33 year old reliever with 1 good MLB season who hasn't pitched in the majors at all this year as the deadline pickup. I don't view him as "like a trade deadline pickup" at all. I view him as a wild card lottery ticket we hope is useful this year.

Concur.

Major props for best use of "just like making a trade" though. 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Rhyno006 said:

If that's what Rogers has put up this year in NL then no thanks, I'd rather roll with SWR, Pollack, Festa, etc. The only reason I'd take him would be to have a southpaw in the rotation, but the price sounds like a hard pass to me.

Orioles got him