Are Surveyed Players Right to Call Carlos Correa Overrated?

[Cody Christie]

Carlos Correa has been a polarizing figure throughout his career, from Houston’s cheating scandal to his multi-offseason free agency saga. Fans and players view him through different lenses. Does that make him one of baseball's most overrated players?

Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Sports debates have been part of water cooler and barstool discussions for generations. Who is the GOAT? Who makes your favorite team’s Mount Rushmore? Media can drive the conversation in many of these areas, for better and worse. Current players fall into similar traps as fans, with the media and significant storylines shaping their opinions. Earlier this week, The Athletic posted the results of their annual player poll, which included a look at the game’s best players, best organizations, and various other topics.

One question asked on the survey had mixed results, because some players hesitated to answer. Over 100 players were interviewed, but only 59 were willing to name someone as baseball’s most overrated player. Jazz Chisholm Jr.(20.3%), Anthony Rendon (10.2%), and Carlos Correa (6.7%) were the top three finishers. Mathematically, four players voted for Correa, while Chisholm Jr. (12) and Rendon (10) received double-digit votes. Chisholm is near the top of the list, with many questioning why he was picked as the cover athlete for MLB The Show 23. Rendon finishes second, after comments earlier this year about not enjoying playing baseball. 

Let’s look into why Correa is featured so highly on the list, though, and discuss how he can move down the list in future years. 

The Face of the Cheating Scandal
Correa’s final year in Houston was when reports surfaced about the Astros' elaborate sign-stealing system, which helped them win the World Series. Some Astros players stood before the media and refused to answer questions. Correa took the opposite approach, and made himself available to the media to answer the tough questions. He was part of one of baseball’s biggest scandals, but he didn’t shy away from the mistakes made by that Houston team. Correa is a very smart player and is well-spoken in media interviews. It might have helped him more to take the approach some of his teammates adopted, but he understood the long-term ramifications.

Fans mercilessly booed the Astros in the aftermath of the cheating scandal being revealed. Correa and other current/former Astros are still booed at stadiums, even by some fans who likely don’t know why they are displeased with the star shortstop. Other players hear the boos, and it is hard to ignore, which is one of the big reasons he’s viewed as overrated. 

Free Agency Saga and Subsequent Poor Performance
Another reason he is featured highly on this list is that Correa’s name was dragged through the muddied waters of free agency in back-to-back seasons. He headed to free agency after the 2021 season as one of the top players on the market. MLB owners locked out the players, and Correa was forced to wait until spring training to sign with a club. He was so frustrated with the process that he switched agents and joined Scott Boras’s growing group. Minnesota signed him to a record-breaking deal, with him fully intending to hit the open market following the 2022 campaign.

Correa performed well in his first year with the Twins and hoped his second free-agent stint would improve. He agreed to massive contracts with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets, but both deals collapsed because of concerns over his surgically repaired ankle. Eventually, the Twins re-signed him to a six-year, $200 million contract. Other players must have followed his free agency saga closely, and it was another knock against Correa. The first year of his new massive deal was marred by a plantar fasciitis injury that impacted him on both sides of the ball. He showed up big in October for the Twins, but other players might not pay as close of attention when their season ends.

In the end, it was a small sample size of voters, and it speaks volumes that some players refused to answer this question. The prominence of Correa's mention in the subsequent article oversells the real extent to which the survey showed any resentment or doubt in his talent on the part of his counterparts throughout the league. Factors largely beyond his control (teams backing out of deals to which he had agreed and the injury-driven struggles in the first year of the deal that was finally consummated) set him up for this kind of list appearance, but it's a safe bet that just as many players (or more) quietly think of the smart, well-rounded Correa as underrated.

Correa will get further away from the cheating scandal and his free agent debacle, which should remove him from the list in subsequent years. Other players behind him deserve more attention for their performance (or lack thereof). Correa can help his own narrative by performing well in the regular season and helping the Twins to win games in October.

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Is Correa one of baseball’s most overrated players? Who is the most overrated player on the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion, 

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[mikelink45]

Yes he is overrated, but he also very good.  When compared to the list of SS that were signed in his first FA year he was not at the top and the subsequent failure of other teams to sign him the second time left the Twins with an opportunity to overpay to get someone they really needed.  

I am fine with this because the other poll on this Athletic summary showed only 2.3% of players would choose to play for the Twins.  So to get stars we need to extend and pay a premium.  But in the end I would choose Buxton as our most overrated. 

Fox sports lists the 10 best SS in MLB:

• Corey Seager, Texas Rangers. ...
• Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers. ...
• Francisco Lindor, New York Mets. ...
• Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies. ...
• Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles. ...
• Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals. ...
• Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays. ...
• Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs.

Bleacher Reports in 2023 rated the Shortstops and had Correa at number 17.   But for us he is number one. 

[Whitey333]

Correa is a very good shortstop.  I think he's a little overrated at least when compared to what he is being paid.  You don't get much for 35 million a year anymore.  200 million guaranteed.  I don't think we have gotten value.  I think he's a steady reliable fielder with only average to slightly above average performance.  Bottom line is I'm glad he's on the Twins but I sure wish he would perform at the level he's getting paid for.

[tony&rodney]

We all know that Correa has a huge contract. However, it is a big jump from a shortstop like Correa to the next best available option. I choose to ignore the contract and feel the Twins (and their fans) are lucky to have a very dependable shortstop. I watch a fair amount of minor league games (milb.com) and have yet to see anyone remotely close in skills playing shortstop.

[Karbo]

As is said, "opinions are like ass holes, everyone has them and they all stink." I am glad correa plays here and I expect him to play at a high level.

[Dman]

All I know is he is the best Twins shortstop we have had in a very long time.  Happy to have a guy that can fill that hole for us.

[garn from vancouver]

i think, and who am i?...that he's a great shortstop with a slightly above average bat - maybe i'm being generous with the bat. i was put of by the cheating and the off season drama (who likes that?) and ultimately, capt. obvious, it's a business and he's a business athlete and will get the most he can get and the highest bidder will get his services.

 

and yes, if we really want to talk over-rated - and i love buck - it would be byron.

[Dave The Dastardly]

I would go with overpaid more so than overrated. He's better than most in the field; average at the plate.

[Steve Lein]

Plays great defense and is a 126 OPS+ guy this season (and 125 for his career). He is a well above average player overall, and at his position (shrugs).

[bean5302]

Does it really matter? Correa is a very good baseball player. He's the #9 SS in baseball during the time he's been with the Twins, including last year's disappointing campaign from him. IMHO, he's a reliable All Star caliber player who can be expected to produce about 4-5 WAR. He's not the greatest shortstop in baseball, and he doesn't need to be the greatest because he's not paid like the greatest.

While Royce Lewis has become the new face of the franchise, Carlos Correa is the veteran leader and cornerstone at this point, and there is a lot of value in that. I think he's almost universally liked. His leadership and instincts were on full display last year in the playoffs, and his work was absolutely key in the Twins advancing.

If we were to calculate Correa's value based on different methods.
Traditional $8MM / WAR, keeping in mind this cost is decreasing right now as teams are paying less per free agent WAR than they used to, but I don't expect the trend to continue as MLB revenues/payrolls are inflating so I'll hold it right at $8MM per WAR, with 4.00% inflation assumed for MLB salaries. For this year, I assumed he'd play in 137 games (88 of 95 remaining games) and multiplied 137 / 49 by his current fWAR.

Correa:
2022 a27, 4.6 fWAR = $37MM vs. $35MM paid.
2023 a28, 1.9 fWAR = $15MM vs. $36MM paid.
2024 a29, 5.3 fWAR = $42.4MM vs. $36MM paid.
2025 a30, 4.5 fWAR = $36MM vs. $36MM ($33MM w/inflation) paid.
2026 a31, 4.0 fWAR = $32MM vs. $31.5MM ($28MM w/inflation) paid.
2027 a32, 3.5 fWAR = $28MM vs. $30.5MM ($26MM w/inflation) paid.
2028 a33, 3.0 fWAR = $24MM vs. $30.0MM ($25MM w/inflation) paid.
----------------------------------------------------------------- guarantee ends, moves to 3B?
2029 a34, 2.0 fWAR = $16MM vs. $25MM ($20MM w/inflation) paid.
2030 a35, 2.0 fWAR = $16MM vs. $20MM ($15MM w/inflation) paid.
2031 a36, 1.5 fWAR = $12MM vs. $15MM ($11MM w/inflation) paid.
2032 a 37, 0.5 fWAR = $4MM vs. $10MM ($7MM w/inflation) paid.

Basically, Correa's contract is pretty reasonable. Even considering his performance on the field should be expected to decline as he ages and moves off SS, his salary is probably pretty commiserate with reasonable production expectations, and if he does wind up suffering a significant injury or playing time, beyond age 33, the Twins aren't on the hook for anything.

[Craig Arko]

Maybe with the deals the Giants and Mets were offering; I think the Twins did okay with the contract as structured. Carlos is doing just fine.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

He's not overrated. Players calling him overrated are probably Yankees and Dodgers that are still bitter over 2017 and 2019. 

If you have to win a game 7 in the post-season and you can only pick one short-stop, Correa's the guy and it is not close, IMHO. He's that good and he's that clutch in big games.

[chpettit19]

Does anyone think he's a bad fielder? I'd bet not many even think he's just an average fielder. Pretty widely accepted as above average to elite defensively. He's currently 5th in baseball in wRC+ amongst SSs with at least 150 PAs this year. I don't know what people think they should be getting. Yes, he makes a lot of money, but that's the cost of acquiring big time talent. 

Is he overrated? I'm sure players are sick of hearing about him. But Juan Soto got a vote in that survey for being overrated as well. Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Manny Machado, Yordan Alvarez, Emmanuel Clase, Rafael Devers, Gerrit Cole, Julio Rodriguez, Spencer Strider, and Bryce Harper all received at least 1 vote. Any of those guys feel "overrated" to folks around here? If we had those guys in a Twins uniform would we be complaining about them, too? It costs a lot to have top end talent that aren't pre-arb, or year 1 or 2 arb, guys. Maybe the people complaining about spending money on players aren't the same as the people who want the Twins to be WS contenders. But if you want big time talent for more than 3 or 4 years of their careers you have to accept that they're going to cost a lot. Or we can be the Rays and never have guys around for more than 3 or 4 years at a time.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

He's not overrated. Players calling him overrated are probably Yankees and Dodgers that are still bitter over 2017 and 2019. 

If you have to win a game 7 in the post-season and you can only pick one short-stop, Correa's the guy and it is not close, IMHO. He's that good and he's that clutch in big games.

He'd probably be 2nd to Corey Seager, but I'd be very happy with Carlos.

[mikelink45]

6 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

I would go with overpaid more so than overrated. He's better than most in the field; average at the plate.

They are all overpaid

 

[jkcarew]

I can see him being considered overrated given all the attention and accolades surrounding his and the Astros accomplishments…and the subsequent controversy. Also, the Astros success without him…and probably a smidgin of contract envy from some mixed in there.

But it’s not because he isn’t objectively very good. Because he is.

[Seth Stohs]

Good day for a 5-hit game!!

[VivaBomboRivera!]

20 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I am fine with this because the other poll on this Athletic summary showed only 2.3% of players would choose to play for the Twins.

The question was:

Which team would you sign with if contracts, state taxes and rosters were not a factor?

86 players responded, which is a small sample. At 2.3%, Minnesota tied with 5 other clubs in 8th place. 12 clubs did not get a vote at all.  Beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Yes he is overrated, but he also very good.  When compared to the list of SS that were signed in his first FA year he was not at the top and the subsequent failure of other teams to sign him the second time left the Twins with an opportunity to overpay to get someone they really needed.  

I am fine with this because the other poll on this Athletic summary showed only 2.3% of players would choose to play for the Twins.  So to get stars we need to extend and pay a premium.  But in the end I would choose Buxton as our most overrated. 

Fox sports lists the 10 best SS in MLB:

• Corey Seager, Texas Rangers. ...
• Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers. ...
• Francisco Lindor, New York Mets. ...
• Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies. ...
• Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles. ...
• Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals. ...
• Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays. ...
• Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs.

Bleacher Reports in 2023 rated the Shortstops and had Correa at number 17.   But for us he is number one. 

Lindor is a roller coaster of performance - Turner and Swanson aren’t on the field as much as a Team would like to see - Bichette is more like Arraez, value but CC stacks up with him.

Seager - Betts - Witt are among Top 10 Players in the game, they just happen to play SS. …….Henderson looks like he’ll be elite as well.

Correa is solid defensively - he leads - and when his approach is right, he’s a .280 hitter with pop for the middle of the line-up. When his approach wanders he hits too many grounders to SS & his average dips to .240ish. I like his health & look in ‘24!

He makes a bunch of $$$ so he’s got to be near perfect OR he’s considered overrated.

[saviking]

Is Correa an asset to the team? I sure hope so for 36 million a year. But you must consider what 36 million would have provided you if he wasn't on the team. Let's say Lewis plays SS and Miranda plays 3b, and we use the extra 33 million on other positions. 

Yay, Correa is overpaid, in my opinion. 

[JD-TWINS]

32 minutes ago, saviking said:

Is Correa an asset to the team? I sure hope so for 36 million a year. But you must consider what 36 million would have provided you if he wasn't on the team. Let's say Lewis plays SS and Miranda plays 3b, and we use the extra 33 million on other positions. 

Yay, Correa is overpaid, in my opinion. 

OR Miranda could be hitting .218 again with 3 XBH & Lewis could be hurt…….lots of ifs and buts and hindsight are available.

We could have signed Blake Snell and then everyone would be pissed off about that spending. It’s all educated guessing and Correa definitely hasn’t been anywhere near below average trending toward pretty good.

There are plenty of days that Kepler/Buxton at $26M seems to be awfully foolish as well. Gotta roll with it and hope youth balances the spending and output for the good.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

OR Miranda could be hitting .218 again with 3 XBH & Lewis could be hurt…….lots of ifs and buts and hindsight are available.

We could have signed Blake Snell and then everyone would be pissed off about that spending. It’s all educated guessing and Correa definitely hasn’t been anywhere near below average trending toward pretty good.

There are plenty of days that Kepler/Buxton at $26M seems to be awfully foolish as well. Gotta roll with it and hope youth balances the spending and output for the good.

I don't think the Twins would have let Snell start out of the gate like the Giants did, and I suspect there are more than a few teams keeping a close eye on the NL West standings and last year's Cy Young winner. Snell could be a good trade target for the Twins at the end of July.

[Sutter50]

This whole article is based on the fact that out 59 respondents 4 yes 4!!! said he is overrated.  What a stupid waste of time

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, saviking said:

Is Correa an asset to the team? I sure hope so for 36 million a year. But you must consider what 36 million would have provided you if he wasn't on the team. Let's say Lewis plays SS and Miranda plays 3b, and we use the extra 33 million on other positions. 

Yay, Correa is overpaid, in my opinion. 

What would that extra 33 million have gotten you? What if Lewis was at SS and Miranda was at 3B, what would you have spent the money on this offseason? And who would've been playing SS for the first 2 months of the season while Lewis was hurt?

[wabene]

The poll to start with is a fluff piece with pretty much useless data. Many have then misinterpreted the results of the player's preferred destination, lol, and continue to do so. Now 4 guys reluctantly mention Correa as overrated. There is nothing to see here. Correa for his career has been 25% better than the league average of all hitters while playing one of the 3 most important positions on the field. He is a very good fielder, a great clubhouse leader, well spoken team representative and happens to play his best in the post-season. I'll take it.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 minutes ago, wabene said:

Now 4 guys reluctantly mention Correa as overrated.

Wrong. The reluctant guys declined to submit any name at all. 

[wabene]

Just now, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Wrong. The reluctant guys declined to submit any name at all. 

Maybe, but an anonymous poll of little value nonetheless.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 minute ago, wabene said:

Maybe, but an anonymous poll of little value nonetheless.

I disagree; but I also think the more interesting question is the one about how the Injured List is used. 

[Reptevia]

Is he a legitimate “Superstar “?  No. Is he paid like one?  Yes. 

[mikelink45]

12 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Lindor is a roller coaster of performance - Turner and Swanson aren’t on the field as much as a Team would like to see - Bichette is more like Arraez, value but CC stacks up with him.

Seager - Betts - Witt are among Top 10 Players in the game, they just happen to play SS. …….Henderson looks like he’ll be elite as well.

Correa is solid defensively - he leads - and when his approach is right, he’s a .280 hitter with pop for the middle of the line-up. When his approach wanders he hits too many grounders to SS & his average dips to .240ish. I like his health & look in ‘24!

He makes a bunch of $$$ so he’s got to be near perfect OR he’s considered overrated.

I am not denying that he is good, but that is not the question.  How high do we rate him?