Who Will Be the Unlucky Player That Makes Way for Royce Lewis?

[jorgenswest]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If it's Julien

Right/Left - Multi-Position

DH - Kirilloff/Miranda 

C - Jeffers/Vazquez

1B - Miranda/Santana

2B - Castro/Farmer

3B - Lewis

SS - Correa

LF - Larnach/Castro

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler/Margot

I would give Kepler some starts against lefties sitting him no more than once a week. He would replace Farmer in the line up against some left handed pitching..

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

As much as I complain about the plan to roster three short side guys and platoon heavy like they do. I don't believe it is wise to change plans in the middle of the season so... they should keep going on the planned path and hopefully try something else next year. 

With that said... If Miranda is to stay... A right hander for a right hander would be eye for an eye. The players with options are all left handed with the exception of course being... Miranda.  

The plan isn't working. Sticking with it is bad management. I have no idea why Margot should be on this roster at this point. Other than that was the plan

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The plan isn't working. Sticking with it is bad management. I have no idea why Margot should be on this roster at this point. Other than that was the plan

Agreed but it's hard to change when I'm sure they are playing the long game.

They will not abandon this platoon model. As long as you need 3 short side bats to keep it going... you will need 3 short side replacements to jettison these short side guys off the roster. I just don't see that happening and switching mid-season is hard to do. 

 

[Riverbrian]

13 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I would give Kepler some starts against lefties sitting him no more than once a week. He would replace Farmer in the line up against some left handed pitching..

I would play Kepler every day and that's why I choose Margot... Although... It is important to point out... that I would have cut Kepler last June. 😉

Your model though... Absolutely renders Farmer next to useless. 

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

If they cut Manny, Lewis can play left too, and Larnach also can play right.

I'd love to see Lewis use his flexibility. It opens up a lot of doors.

Rumors are that he would rather remain static and the Twins seem to agree.   

[jorgenswest]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The plan isn't working. Sticking with it is bad management. I have no idea why Margot should be on this roster at this point. Other than that was the plan

The plan was to improve their line up against a left handed starter.

In games started by a lefty few players on the roster have put up better numbers than Margot. He has a team best OBP of .370 in those games and OPS of .810. Castro and Miranda have better OPS. Kepler also has a better OPS often as a sub.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

39 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I can't argue with your logic... which is solid as usual. 

I just can't see them cutting Farmer and what's left of the 6 million. I actually don't see them cutting Margot either even though he gets my vote.

I think it will end up being a player with options barring injury to anybody of course.  

 

Agreed, while I think Farmer should be the one to go, and believe there to be a strong chance, I hear Larnach has been DHing almost exclusively because he’s fighting a foot injury, certainly likely/possible he gets the Il stint to recover from it, or one of Larnach/Kirilloff getting demoted

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The plan was to improve their line up against a left handed starter.

In games started by a lefty few players on the roster have put up better numbers than Margot. He has a team best OBP of .370 in those games and OPS of .810. Castro and Miranda have better OPS. Kepler also has a better OPS often as a sub.

This is misleading at best. Margot is hitting .269/.328/.365 vs LH pitching this year. 

An his OF defense has been bad as well.

It's a wasted roster spot.

[jorgenswest]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

This is misleading at best. Margot is hitting .269/.328/.365 vs LH pitching this year. 

An his OF defense has been bad as well.

It's a wasted roster spot.

I didn’t intend to mislead. It is simply the data when the Twins have faced a left handed starter. He is 2/30 as a sub. 

[Riverbrian]

22 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed, while I think Farmer should be the one to go, and believe there to be a strong chance, I hear Larnach has been DHing almost exclusively because he’s fighting a foot injury, certainly likely/possible he gets the Il stint to recover from it, or one of Larnach/Kirilloff getting demoted

Kepler would return to every day... If Farmer is the choice: 

RH/LH Multi Position

DH - Kiriloff/Miranda

C - Jeffers/Vazquez 

1B - Miranda/Santana

2B - Julien/Castro

3B - Lewis

SS - Correa

LF - Larnach/Margot

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler

[Major League Ready]

They probably make a move that buys them some time.  IE. Send Julien or Kirilloff down to reset.  

[PaddyO]

Margot is the obvious choice but Julian needs to stop swinging for the fences with every swing and get back to who he was last year.  Let Larnach get a full season.  Go Twins!

 

 

[Linus]

Julien or Kiriloff. And it’s not punishment like some people think. Both might be part of our future but both need to hit. I’m not sure letting their confidence get obliterated in the big leagues is helpful right now. One aspect of the platoon discussion is that it isn’t only the short side platoon players that have disappointed. Julien and Wallner have been really bad and Larnach only recently reviving himself. 

[gregens]

Unfortunately, if I was the front office, I'd make a move that could easily be reversed because Lewis'' history shows it's highly unlikely he will be able to remain healthy.   I know Lewis can be an exceptional player (if healthy) and I'd love for him to be a long-term Twin, but so far his injury history is not on his side.

It's a tough decision, because the Twins have 3 (Farmer, Margot, Santana) veterans that don't currently provide enough value for a team trying to win games in a surprisingly strong division.

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

My guess? A good young player so they can have bad depth. 

My want? Margot, Farmer, or Santana. I mean, I'd do Margot and Farmer right now and bring up kiersey and Lewis. Once Wallner is right, bring him up and move on from Santana. 

Kiersey just got put on the IL in AAA, so he can't be brought up right now.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's an obvious choice of Kirilloff to me. No defensive value. Limited value at the plate. Never had a good season in his entire career.
2021 = 0.3 fWAR (Scrub)
2022 = (0.5) fWAR (AA player caliber)
2023 = 0.6 fWAR (Scrub)
2024 = 0.1 fWAR (Scrub)

Not sure how much more people need to see of Kirilloff to come to the conclusion he's a bust, but I've seen plenty. In fact, if the season ended today, I'd non-tender him.

This is a defensible position. He has little left to learn in AAA but he's not doing enough to keep his MLB roster spot.

[Heiny]

1 hour ago, PaddyO said:

Margot is the obvious choice but Julian needs to stop swinging for the fences with every swing and get back to who he was last year.  Let Larnach get a full season.  Go Twins!

 

 

I agree whole heartedly.  I've been saying for weeks "Julian got a quick 7 homers to start the season and now seems to think he might be Joey Gallo".  He leads the team in strike-outs, and that just cannot be.  It is claimed that he knows the strike zone so well,  then he needs to start protecting the plate when he has two strikes on him.  And stop trying to hit the ball to Mars.  It may be necessary to send him to St. Paul with the idea of greatly improving his batting average.  Oh,  and by the way,  welcome to TD.

[Shaitan]

Does it have to be a position player? (So many roster rules nowadays, who can keep track).

Cuz I also think it could be any low leverage RP to buy time until a position player inevitably sprains/strains something.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

7 hours ago, PaddyO said:

Margot is the obvious choice but Julian needs to stop swinging for the fences with every swing and get back to who he was last year.  Let Larnach get a full season.  Go Twins!

 

 

His hard hit rate is down, as is his pull rate, while his oppo rate is up. His fly ball rate is up, and he’s swinging at fewer pitches in the zone, while swinging at more pitches out of the zone.

Usually when hitters are swing for the fences too much, they try to pull too many pitches and roll over the top. He’s going oppo more and getting more loft.

he might benefit from trying to hit homers more

[terrydactyls]

I've lost count but I think this about the tenth article asking the same question.   The replies and arguments haven't changed and no one knows what the front office is going to do.  As my magic eight ball is telling me - "All will be revealed soon!".   And when it does happen, then the same thoughts will be revealed and argued in multiple articles.

[DocBauer]

I've thought about this so long and hard the past couple of weeks it makes my brain cramp. But after a TON of thought and examination, the answer has become obvious, Margot needs to go, barring any sort of injury that changes the situation.

1] Despite a sudden 7-10 games where he's actually produced a little offense, he's still barely league average in OPS against LHP. He's so far down against RHP that it embarrasses ME. He's got little power, his speed has greatly diminished, and his once valued defense has become average at best.

2] The OF against LHP is obvious without Margot. Kepler in RF...having a surprising year against same side arms..Buxton in CF...and Castro in LF. This just isn't that hard. 

2A] Don't talk to me about a Buxton inury. You can bring Martin back up...who's doing just fine after his demotion...OR, add Keirsey OR the often forgotten about Helman, raking after a slow start if you want a different and more versatile RH bat, to sub defensively. 

3] Some have mentioned Farmer as a roster cut. So far, he's just not the same player he was in 2023. And ZERO disrespect to Margot as a person or teammate, but Farmer has team "credit" already built up. On top of that, the "next guy up" is either Lee or Anthony Prato. UNFORTUNATELY, one is still rehabbing, and one is having a surprisingly poor season at AAA so far. In a weird twist of fate, Helman is the "next man up" for the INF until Lee is ready. So Farmer is safe for now because he can play across the dirt effectively. 

4] Julien is a TALENT. It's possible he knows the STIKE ZONE better than most umps. But he HAS to ADJUST. That means NOT just trusting what he thinks he knows, but adjusting his approach to look for something earlier in the zone. Larnach has made serious adjustments and keeps plugging along like a legitimate ML hitter. To send him down while adapting and productive would not only be a HUGE mistake...just look at the numbers...it might rob him of the confidence and approach he's built up now. Kirilloff started strong, went in to the tank, but has been coming out of his recent funk. His last 15 games mediocre, but his last 7 games are powerful and productive. 

A few decent games notwithstanding, Margot has NOT produced, and is NOT part of the future. He's the easy choice!

Farmer is, unfortunately, living on borrowed time. I can easily see Lee up around July 1st, playing all over, giving breaks to players, and establishing himself for 2025 and beyond.

So much angst about who goes only because we've bought in to the depth idea the FO has sold us? And I'll admit, I generally LOVE the idea of depth EVERYWHERE for the Twins, the Vikings, or my beloved Huskers. I get and enjoy the idea of depth for the Twins to make sure we have the best team we can have season to season. But best laid plans don't aways work the way you want them to and you need to adjust.

Margot is gone. You've got options.

Farmer is probably next at some point.

Keep the guys doing well, and who might be part of the future. It's just not that hard!

[swahl]

Margot needs to be gone. He is--in no way--remotely close to being a deserving position player on this team. This should be obvious. Julien, Kirilloff, et al are not going to benefit from time back in the minors. Keep your best players playing with the team. It is simple.

[David HK]

Dfa for either of the last two on the list would be fine by me.

Or maybe we can call the dodgers and get our shortstop refunded. 🤔

 

[David HK]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I've thought about this so long and hard the past couple of weeks it makes my brain cramp. But after a TON of thought and examination, the answer has become obvious, Margot needs to go, barring any sort of injury that changes the situation.

1] Despite a sudden 7-10 games where he's actually produced a little offense, he's still barely league average in OPS against LHP. He's so far down against RHP that it embarrasses ME. He's got little power, his speed has greatly diminished, and his once valued defense has become average at best.

2] The OF against LHP is obvious without Margot. Kepler in RF...having a surprising year against same side arms..Buxton in CF...and Castro in LF. This just isn't that hard. 

2A] Don't talk to me about a Buxton inury. You can bring Martin back up...who's doing just fine after his demotion...OR, add Keirsey OR the often forgotten about Helman, raking after a slow start if you want a different and more versatile RH bat, to sub defensively. 

3] Some have mentioned Farmer as a roster cut. So far, he's just not the same player he was in 2023. And ZERO disrespect to Margot as a person or teammate, but Farmer has team "credit" already built up. On top of that, the "next guy up" is either Lee or Anthony Prato. UNFORTUNATELY, one is still rehabbing, and one is having a surprisingly poor season at AAA so far. In a weird twist of fate, Helman is the "next man up" for the INF until Lee is ready. So Farmer is safe for now because he can play across the dirt effectively. 

4] Julien is a TALENT. It's possible he knows the STIKE ZONE better than most umps. But he HAS to ADJUST. That means NOT just trusting what he thinks he knows, but adjusting his approach to look for something earlier in the zone. Larnach has made serious adjustments and keeps plugging along like a legitimate ML hitter. To send him down while adapting and productive would not only be a HUGE mistake...just look at the numbers...it might rob him of the confidence and approach he's built up now. Kirilloff started strong, went in to the tank, but has been coming out of his recent funk. His last 15 games mediocre, but his last 7 games are powerful and productive. 

A few decent games notwithstanding, Margot has NOT produced, and is NOT part of the future. He's the easy choice!

Farmer is, unfortunately, living on borrowed time. I can easily see Lee up around July 1st, playing all over, giving breaks to players, and establishing himself for 2025 and beyond.

So much angst about who goes only because we've bought in to the depth idea the FO has sold us? And I'll admit, I generally LOVE the idea of depth EVERYWHERE for the Twins, the Vikings, or my beloved Huskers. I get and enjoy the idea of depth for the Twins to make sure we have the best team we can have season to season. But best laid plans don't aways work the way you want them to and you need to adjust.

Margot is gone. You've got options.

Farmer is probably next at some point.

Keep the guys doing well, and who might be part of the future. It's just not that hard!

I agree with everything you said, but you spelled "beloved Gophers" wrong.

😂

[Whitey333]

My vote would be to dump Margot.  But perhaps the geniuses in the FO will make it simple and "find"  a player to put on the I jury list.  As a side note:  I can't stand this platoon system especially with the younger players and prospects.  How are they going to develop when they wind up being part time players?  How do you judge Miranda, Kiriloff. Larnach, Julienne, etc al when they play so sporadically?  I think the Twins are hurting the development of their younger talent.  A good bench is fine but this strict adherence to platooning is ridiculous.  Most of your best teams play a regular lineup day in day out barring injuries.  Of course it's impossible to KNOW if the Twins would be better or not since they only play the way they do.  Anyway Go Twins.

[Fatbat]

Dfa Margo and work a trade for a bag of balls…

[Riverbrian]

On 6/1/2024 at 11:20 AM, Riverbrian said:

If it's Julien

Right/Left - Multi-Position

DH - Kirilloff/Miranda 

C - Jeffers/Vazquez

1B - Miranda/Santana

2B - Castro/Farmer

3B - Lewis

SS - Correa

LF - Larnach/Castro

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler/Margot

 

According to reports... It is Julien (probably) going down to make room for Lewis.  

Right hander for the Yanks on Tuesday. Left hander on Wednesday so it'll only take two games to discover Rocco's platoon rotation.

What I laid out above on Saturday seems to be the only platoon rotation that makes sense. 

1. Castro will have to assume Julien's Role at 2B against right handers. Farmer remains short side 2B as Castro moves to LF against the lefties. 

2. Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Castro and Miranda are the 5 players who will play against both hands. 

3. Farmer's playing time will increase because Castro will have to abandon his 2B post to play CF and SS when Buxton and Correa need maintenance days and they will get maintenance days.  

4. Castro becomes very difficult to take out of the lineup. Farmer will also face the right hander at 2B if Castro ever gets a day off. 

5. Miranda, Kirilloff and Larnach can rotate the DH spot against right handers. With Kirilloff playing some 1B and LF.

6. Rocco does have the option of throwing Jeffers into the DH vs Right Handers mix to get him some extra playing time on those Vazquez starts. Jeffers was locking down the DH spot vs left handers. His DH time if it happens... will now happen when Right Handers are on the mound. Otherwise We shouldn't see Jeffers in the DH spot against lefties and this should knock down Vazquez's playing time down from 50% to 33%. Jeffers two out of three is my guess. 

7. When a left hander is on the mound. Miranda should lock into DH and Santana should be a lock at 1B. 

8. The platooned lefties: Kepler, Kirilloff and Larnach.

9.  The short siders: Farmer, Margot and Santana. 

10. What happened to that log jam?

 

 

 

 

[wabene]

The above post and all the time posting about platoons by @Riverbrianhas brought me to a conclusion. It is established that right handers hit same side pitchers better than left handers do, probably due to repetition and familiarity. This front office acknowledges this by their intense platooning of left handed batters. They also tend to stock the farm with leftys. Why? If rightys are more versatile and platoon proof, why have more than 3 maybe 4 leftys in your regular lineup? Wouldn't right handed bats be more coveted? 

[Riverbrian]

54 minutes ago, wabene said:

The above post and all the time posting about platoons by @Riverbrianhas brought me to a conclusion. It is established that right handers hit same side pitchers better than left handers do, probably due to repetition and familiarity. This front office acknowledges this by their intense platooning of left handed batters. They also tend to stock the farm with leftys. Why? If rightys are more versatile and platoon proof, why have more than 3 maybe 4 leftys in your regular lineup? Wouldn't right handed bats be more coveted? 

It's a good question.

Which brings us back to the bigger issue. Righties may be more platoon proof but 75% of pitchers are right handed and there is still a platoon disparity. 

With Julien sent down. If health remains... it won't... but if health remains. 

The Roster is now: 

3 left handed hitters

8 right handed hitters

2 switch hitters

Starting lineups against lefties will be 9 in the right handed batter's box with one extra. The extra will be the catcher spot. They are loaded up to the hilt against left handed pitching. 

Starting lineups against righties will be 4 in the right handed batter's box with two extra (Margot and Farmer) plus the catcher spot for the 3rd extra and 5 in the left handed batters box with one extra (Santana). 

I'll continue to claim that this is backwards since 75% of the pitching is right handed. Yes... the platoon split is larger lefty against lefty but if the Twins really want to play the platoon split... they need more left handers because of all the right handed pitching. The split may not be as big righty against righty but the platoon advantage is still there.  

Replacing Farmer and Margot with left handed bats will balance things better against the primary hand.  

Let's say they bring Julien back to replace Farmer. Or Brooks Lee for those who really really want that. And just for fun... Let's call up Keirsey. Or... ERod for those who really really really want that. We could even put Wallner into consideration. 

Here is your starting lineup against those 75% right handers. 

DH - Larnach

C- Jeffers

1B - Kirilloff 

2B - Julien or Lee

3B - Lewis

SS - Correa

LF - (Keirsey or Erod or Wallner)

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler

Extras - Miranda, Castro and Santana and Vazquez.

These extras will provide better cover against the 75% of right handed pitchers that they will face... when injuries occur. We have options to turn to when players struggle against the primary hand. As it stands right now Farmer, Margot and Santana will have to provide the cover and they are below average against right handers and therefore... not decent cover.    

Against those 25% left handers. 

DH - Miranda

C - Jeffers

1B - Santana 

2B - (Julien or Lee)

3B - Lewis

SS - Buxton

LF - Castro

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler

Extras - Larnach, Kirilloff, (Keirsey or Erod or Wallner) and Vazquez. All you have to do is let a couple of lefties hit against left handers and that will occur 25% of the time.