Make it Official! Twins 6, Mariners 3: Hits Keep Coming

[Ted Schwerzler]

Chris Paddack was dominant on the bump matching a season high strikeout total and earning additional leash from Rocco Baldelli. A couple of big back-to-back instances scored runs for Minnesota, and the Twins put themselves in position for a series victory in game four.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
SP: Chris Paddack 5 1/3 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K (99 pitches, 70 strikes, 19 whiffs)
Home Runs: Carlos Correa (2), Trevor Larnach (3), Willi Castro (3)
Top 3 WPA: Chris Paddack (.154), Willi Castro (.153), Trevor Larnach (.087)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Back to Back Jacks
There were significant amounts of hard-hit contact early for both sides. With Chris Paddack on the bump for the Minnesota Twins, both Julio Rodriguez and Jorge Polanco had hard-hit balls in the top of the 1st inning. Rodriguez wound up with a single but the Mariners couldn’t do damage and Minnesota had a chance to strike first.

Carlos Correa stepped in and blasted his second home run of the season. The 406 foot shot made it a 1-0 game and put Minnesota in the lead early. Wasting no time to follow his lead, Trevor Larnach went back-to400-footth a 400-foot shot of his own. Sporting a .367 average and 1.010 OPS, he has been everything Rocco Baldelli has needed and more since swapping him in for Matt Wallner.

Continuing to add on, the Twins returned to the batter’s box for the 3rd inning and Willi Castro broke an 0-for-11 streak with a solo home run of his own. It was Castro’s third big fly of the season, and as he continues to fill in for Byron Buxton, it’s this sort of production the team is looking for. After having the rally sausage out of the dugout for a brief time, it quickly re-emerged for this series and made an appearance in short order Wednesday.

Smelling a Strong Start
While the Twins have made the rally sausage part of their dugout shenanigans this season, that has largely been limited to catching it following a run scored or home run. After Castro’s dinger though, he was seen amongst his teammates smelling the meat piece.

Paddack may find himself with the sausage at some point throughout the game if his first three innings of work are any indication. Striking out seven batters across the game’s first nine outs, he positioned himself well to threaten some career numbers. Having struck out ten earlier this season, and 11 twice during his career, both numbers seemed possible with just 65 pitches under his belt.

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Through the 4th inning on 79 pitches and nine strikeouts, Paddack had new highs within his reach. Mitch Garver did tag him for a solo home run, but the damage was limited to one. Minnesota needed him to go deep tonight with something of a taxed bullpen, but they got a bit more breathing room in the bottom half. After Jose Miranda drew a walk, it was Castro coming through again. His third triple of the season allowed Miranda to motor around and make it a 4-1 game.

Turned Over to the Bullpen
Despite being at 92 pitches, Paddack talked his way back out onto the mound to start the 6th inning. Garver got him for a single but then the Twins starter punched out Ty France for his 10th strikeout of the evening. Caleb Thielbar came on in relief and shut down Seattle to send the Twins back into the dugout. A night after the bullpen imploded, Baldelli was going to need good work from them yet again.

Thielbar got three outs but was lifted in favor of Griffin Jax as Polanco stepped in. The Minnesota setup man got the former infielder, but Mitch Haniger drew a walk before Cal Raleigh ripped a two-run double that made it a 4-3 game. For the second consecutive night, the Big Dumper had brought the runs in. Clinging to a one-run lead, the Twins needed to thread the needle.

Doubling Down
Facing Mariners reliever Cody Bolton, Manuel Margot flew out to start the inning but Julien singled to put a runner on. In motion looking to steal second base, Julien was near the bag when Ryan Jeffers ripped a double just inside of the third base line. The Minnesota second baseman continued motoring around and scored to make it a 5-3 game. Though this back-to-back wasn't of the home run variety, Kepler followed Jeffers and swapped places. His double made it a 6-3 game and gave the Twins some much-needed breathing room.

Jhoan Duran was on, with another one of his electric entrances, seeking the save and a chance to lock down the victory for the Twins. Making quick work of the Mariners in order, the Twins avoided back-to-back losses and put themselves in position to take the series on Thursday. Improving to 4-2 on the current homestand, they have a chance to head out to Boston on a high note.

Notes
Josh Winder made his first rehab appearance with the Saints on Wednesday afternoon. Working 1 2/3 innings of relief, he allowed three runs (two earned) on three hits. Winder struck out one and walked a batter. He will be in the mix for bullpen opportunities at some point this year, but the Twins have to see a sharper level of production before promoting him.

Justin Topa has been on a rehab assignment as he works to make his debut for the Twins. The results haven’t been great, and unfortunately, he underwent an MRI to see what lingering issues there are for his knee injury.

Reliever Brock Stewart had an MRI on his shoulder over the weekend. Initially placed on the injured list with some tendinitis, it was expected that the Twins caught it early and he would need only a brief shutdown. The word on his MRI is that things looked good.

A pretty neat note was shared by The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman today that worked itself into a coincidence thanks to Scott Servais’ pitching decisions for the Mariners.

What’s Next? 
It’s a Pablo Day on Thursday for an afternoon contest as Minnesota wraps up the series with Seattle. Pablo Lopez goes against Logan Gilbert, and both sides will presumably have their hands full with the opposition's starting pitcher.

The Twins then head north of the boarder to Toronto this weekend for a series with the Blue Jays. While Byron Buxton would be eligible to join them on Sunday, meeting the team back home makes more sense.

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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[GNess]

Paddack may prove to a super solid mid-rotation starter. He has been putting together some real quality starts.

[stringer bell]

Pablo needs to go deep into the game. Funderburk, Sands, Jackson and Okert don't inspire a lot of confidence. I'm sure Jax is down and I don't know if Rocco will want to use Durán less than 24 hours after throwing 18 pitches. 

[Shaitan]

5 minutes ago, GNess said:

Paddack may prove to a super solid mid-rotation starter. He has been putting together some real quality starts.

I expect some bumps as almost all pitchers have in their first year after TJ surgery, but I'm happy so far. He is more like 1.5 years in at this point.

[Shaitan]

Is it just me, or is this team hitting a lot of triples?

[jmlease1]

Kind of a strange game from Paddack, who racked up the Ks and wriggled out of trouble, but also gave up a lot of hits. He certainly showed he could get outs, and if he'd been able to keep the pitch count down and finish off some hitters faster, I think he would have been able to get through 6.

nice to see the bats get some big knocks; Correa and Larnach going back to back was a fine way to start things out.

A good win. Be great to take the series!

[D.C Twins]

Mar-got-to-find-a-replacement. Cannot keep doing this all season.

Duran an absolute beast! If he has durability in his career... HOF is not off the table (yeah... I said it!)

[LastOnePicked]

37 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

Is it just me, or is this team hitting a lot of triples?

Is it just me, of is this team kinda fun to follow since late April?

[hitterscount]

54 minutes ago, GNess said:

Paddack may prove to a super solid mid-rotation starter. He has been putting together some real quality starts.

He has the potential to be higher than a mid rotation starter. He might be the key to another playoff appearance. Nice to see him come out to start the 6th with where his pitch count was at. 

[Shaitan]

16 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Is it just me, of is this team kinda fun to follow since late April?

There is a direct correlation between triples and fun, obviously.

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, GNess said:

Paddack may prove to a super solid mid-rotation starter. He has been putting together some real quality starts.

He was the Twins best starter in 2022 before going down. I worry about the durability, but he's been solid.

[stringer bell]

This clinched a winning homestand against two pretty good teams. 5-2 would more than meet expectations IMHO. 

[h2oface]

Has Baldelli learned something? Can it be? At least he couldn't pinch hit Margot for Larnach tonight.

I give the game ball to Paddack. I will take just 1 run and 10 Ks no matter how many hits he gives up or pitches he has to throw. 1 run does the trick for me. That's 2 great starts, in my book, in a row.

[UK Twin]

2 hours ago, h2oface said:

Has Baldelli learned something? Can it be? At least he couldn't pinch hit Margot for Larnach tonight.

I give the game ball to Paddack. I will take just 1 run and 10 Ks no matter how many hits he gives up or pitches he has to throw. 1 run does the trick for me. That's 2 great starts, in my book, in a row.

This. A SP isn't going to have every start where he gives up only a handful of hits. There will be times where he gives up plenty of base runners. But if you can strand most of them it's fine! The only issue is the pitch count will rise rapidly like it did with Paddack. 

At the end of the day we scored 6 runs off 7 hits, they scored 3 off 10. That's what counts. 

My main concern is bullpen depth. If I were Falvey, I would seriously consider making a trade now. Topa could be out for a while yet and while Stewart may be back soon, his injury record isn't good. There are several teams who clearly won't be contending this year so why not pull the trigger on a trade now?

[Parfigliano]

7 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Mar-got-to-find-a-replacement. Cannot keep doing this all season.

Duran an absolute beast! If he has durability in his career... HOF is not off the table (yeah... I said it!)

I have no doubt Margot can keep doing this all season.

[Peter]

Much much much better then Monday night!!! Huge win!!! Let’s get win and take series today!!! Go twins!!

[Doctor Wu]

7 hours ago, hitterscount said:

He has the potential to be higher than a mid rotation starter. He might be the key to another playoff appearance. Nice to see him come out to start the 6th with where his pitch count was at. 

Yeah, if he keeps pitching games with that many strikeouts, and only walking one batter (or even none like he did last week), then I think he certainly could vault up the pecking order. I realize the Twins will try to limit his innings over the course of this season, but right now he's in a groove. 

[bighat]

Discouraging to hear the news on Topa. Is this dude going to be out for the year? That makes 5 pitchers off the top of my head (Paddack, Mahle, DeSclafini, Sam Dyson and Topa) that the Twins have traded for and who have all subsequently gone down with Tommy John or other major career threatening injuries almost IMMEDIATLY after being traded for. It's very clear that someone is not doing their due diligence. You can't chalk this all up to "bad luck", this is bad scouting and bad intel. 

Speaking of Paddack the Twins did a great job signing him on the cheap after his injury. Here's hoping we can get more of this type of outing from him this year. 

Hard to complain about the starting pitching so far: Lopez, Ryan, Paddack, and Ober have all worked out perfectly according to plan. With SWR seemingly finding his footing here as the 5th starter, it's encouraging to see. 

[EPEZRider]

2 hours ago, Peter said:

Much much much better then Monday night!!! Huge win!!! Let’s get win and take series today!!! Go twins!!

I hope you mean Tuesday night. I kind of enjoyed Monday night's win.

[Doctor Gast]

10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Pablo needs to go deep into the game. Funderburk, Sands, Jackson and Okert don't inspire a lot of confidence. I'm sure Jax is down and I don't know if Rocco will want to use Durán less than 24 hours after throwing 18 pitches. 

Twins tend to use up their high-leverage RPs all in one shot leaving none every other game. Although they preached a good sense approach of extending RPs they have been lax returning to limit RPs to 1 inning & extending Alcala when they shouldn't. Ober pitched a good game deserving a win the day before but relying on Jackson & Okert in a higher leverage situation was foolhardy. Here today we are left in the same situation having no high-leverage arms available, in what should prove as a close game.

I am here again to advocate the need for long relief. Especially w/o Steward, we need to extend Sands a little more & bring up Varland in that role & spot start if need be. Limiting 1 or at most 2 high-leverage RPs leaves us in a better situation to win a lot more games. If there is a concern of excess non-options RPs, trade them, there is some demand.

[Whitey333]

Nice win Twins.  I'm discouraged though that Thursdays matinee game may become one of Roccos throw away games due to the overuse of the bullpen.  Too many high leverage arms that may be unavailable.  Lopez needs to go deep in the game.  Go Twins!

[Jeff K]

10 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Mar-got-to-find-a-replacement. Cannot keep doing this all season.

Duran an absolute beast! If he has durability in his career... HOF is not off the table (yeah... I said it!)

It will be interesting to see what the Twins do when Buxton comes back.  I hope Margot becomes a roster casualty.

[LambchoP]

I really wish they would cut Margot and bring up Keirsey Jr. Or send down Kiriloff for a bit to find his swing. I'm worried about our bullpen, especially with Stewart, probably our second best reliever hurt and now Topa probably not coming back anytime soon. Maybe we should stick Varland in the bullpen as long relief man for awhile to take some of the pressure off the rest of the BP. A trade or FA signing probably couldn't hurt either, as long as we stop trading for injured pitchers:(

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, UK Twin said:

This. A SP isn't going to have every start where he gives up only a handful of hits. There will be times where he gives up plenty of base runners. But if you can strand most of them it's fine! The only issue is the pitch count will rise rapidly like it did with Paddack. 

At the end of the day we scored 6 runs off 7 hits, they scored 3 off 10. That's what counts. 

My main concern is bullpen depth. If I were Falvey, I would seriously consider making a trade now. Topa could be out for a while yet and while Stewart may be back soon, his injury record isn't good. There are several teams who clearly won't be contending this year so why not pull the trigger on a trade now?

If a team isn’t competitive, they are better off waiting for suitors to have more desperation to get a better return. Other than maybe 3-4 teams, I doubt many other teams have given up on the season…….even if their goal is to just return to .500 to gain fan respect.

Stewart is probably a month away. Alcala will be available by the end next weekend. Topa is just a POTENTIAL benefit by mid-June the way things are going (MRI Sunday to re-evaluate), not very positive so far!! I like Staumont is up and getting a look. Almost a certainty he pitches today.

10.73 hits per 9 innings isn’t sustainable for success…….gotta strike out 10 per game every game to get through that amount of traffic on the bases ………his WHIP is 1.50. I like his stuff and think he’s a positive for the rotation! He’s gotta keep tightening up as he has been over last few starts.

[jmlease1]

7 hours ago, UK Twin said:

My main concern is bullpen depth. If I were Falvey, I would seriously consider making a trade now. Topa could be out for a while yet and while Stewart may be back soon, his injury record isn't good. There are several teams who clearly won't be contending this year so why not pull the trigger on a trade now?

Seriously? The bullpen has been excellent this season and is the deepest it's been in a really long time. And no one is giving away bullpen pieces right now except for stupid level overpays. Let not get too jumpy because the bullpen had a couple of poor games: no bullpen in the world shuts down teams every single night.

[UK Twin]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Seriously? The bullpen has been excellent this season and is the deepest it's been in a really long time. And no one is giving away bullpen pieces right now except for stupid level overpays. Let not get too jumpy because the bullpen had a couple of poor games: no bullpen in the world shuts down teams every single night.

So if Jax and Duran aren't available you'd be happy handing the 8th and 9th in a close game over to the likes of Funderburk and Jackson? Funderburk is not good against RH hitters and Jackson doesn't convince me at all. With Stewart out, we're lacking on set up guys. We don't need 3 lefties in the pen either. Funderburk should be in AAA. There's definitely space for another RHP. Of course that could be Topa if he can get healthy. 

[jmlease1]

3 minutes ago, UK Twin said:

So if Jax and Duran aren't available you'd be happy handing the 8th and 9th in a close game over to the likes of Funderburk and Jackson? Funderburk is not good against RH hitters and Jackson doesn't convince me at all. With Stewart out, we're lacking on set up guys. We don't need 3 lefties in the pen either. Funderburk should be in AAA. There's definitely space for another RHP. Of course that could be Topa if he can get healthy. 

I think Sands is showing something, and maybe we see how Staumont starts to look. Historically Thielbar has been much more than a lefty specialist and it's too soon to write him off; and Stewart isn't going to be out for the year. There isn't going to be a set-up man on the level of Jax available at this point; even if a team has already given up on the year there's really only 3 that are in that boat: White Sox, Marlins, and Rockies. ChiSox aren't trading Leasure for anything less than a King's ransom, Rockies don't have anyone that I'd be excited about, and I'm not seeing much of a fit from Miami even they are starting a fire sale. (Burch smith and his 1.5 WHIP? Pass)

And frankly, the back of the bullpen is always going to get stretched if you play 3 close ones in a row, especially if the starters are struggling to get through 6.

[UK Twin]

34 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think Sands is showing something, and maybe we see how Staumont starts to look. Historically Thielbar has been much more than a lefty specialist and it's too soon to write him off; and Stewart isn't going to be out for the year. There isn't going to be a set-up man on the level of Jax available at this point; even if a team has already given up on the year there's really only 3 that are in that boat: White Sox, Marlins, and Rockies. ChiSox aren't trading Leasure for anything less than a King's ransom, Rockies don't have anyone that I'd be excited about, and I'm not seeing much of a fit from Miami even they are starting a fire sale. (Burch smith and his 1.5 WHIP? Pass)

And frankly, the back of the bullpen is always going to get stretched if you play 3 close ones in a row, especially if the starters are struggling to get through 6.

I'm with you on Thielbar. And I'm not saying we should overpay - just if any opportunity arises. Texas picked up Grossman for example so I do think teams are open for business for players on 1 year deals or in the last year before FA.