The Twins' Playoff Odds Have Taken a Significant Hit

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins had an opportunity to establish themselves as clear frontrunners in the AL Central this offseason. They opted against doing that, and were fine being good enough in a division where that should get it done. Early on though, the competition has lapped them.

Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

It should have never been a shock that the Twins were going to dial back payroll this offseason. Derek Falvey said as much almost immediately following a successful postseason run, and with Joe Pohlad taking over as the new face of ownership, the front office's strategy was a direct result of his family not providing assets to the club.

So while Sonny Gray went elsewhere, and the seemingly ideal free agents landed in other spots, Minnesota stood pat. Sure, they spent some money on Carlos Santana, and shuffled strengths with the Jorge Polanco trade, but there was very little commitment to building depth or quality across the roster.

Despite that lack of aggressiveness, the Twins found themselves as favorites. In a division where Stephen Vogt was taking over for Terry Francona, and A.J. Hinch wasn’t yet sure what he had with the Tigers, there was no reason why Minnesota couldn’t sleepwalk their way to a second division title. Rocco Baldelli’s pitching staff was going to have issues in the rotation, but the bullpen seemed solid. The lineup took forever to get going a year ago, but that shouldn’t repeat itself, right?

Well, here we are, roughly three weeks into the 2024 Major League Baseball season, and projections have flipped on their heads. Baseball Prospectus sees the Twins as competitors in a four-team race for the top. FanGraphs has put the odds highest for the Guardians, and that’s in spite of their having lost Shane Bieber for the season.

It seemed laughable for there to be so much hype for the Royals being a competitor in 2024. They spent money, but on the likes of Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Hunter Renfroe. Even a Twins team not spending money should lap that sort of competition. It’s Kansas City, though, that has raced out to a 12-7 start, almost the exact opposite of where Minnesota finds themselves.

This is still far too early for panic. The regular season is 162 games long so that sample sizes are able to be established and the cream can rise to the top. The Twins need to get healthy. Namely, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis need to return. They also need to produce. Byron Buxton, Santana, Edouard Julien and others all have to join Alex Kirilloff and Ryan Jeffers in carrying the lineup load.

If the odds are going to tip back into the favor of the Twins, it will be because they start to right the ship before the end of April. There is ample opportunity, with games against the Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, and Los Angeles Angels upcoming. Right now, it’s Minnesota that is circled on the calendars of the opposition.

A Twins start that has culminated in a 6-11 record has all but given everyone else in the division an open opportunity to take over. So far, they have evened the playing field, and this Minnesota isn’t going to back their way into another postseason berth from here. What seemed like an offseason built around simply being better than depressed competition now has the Twins staring in the mirror, seeing that depressed quality on their own countenance.

View full article

[Karbo]

Its getting late early. Last season they had the starters to keep them in the race even though they didn't hit much early. This season looks like a 3 deep of quality starters with 2 that need better run support. If they want to stay in the race they need to wake up and try to manufacture some runs. After all, its hard to 3 run HR's when nobody is on base.

[Riverbrian]

A simple 12 game win streak and we will look back on these days and laugh. 

[Whitey333]

Another great article.  The injuries have been tough for sure.  But the Twins brought a lot of this on themselves with a non competitive off season.  Last year they had the pitching and enough offense to carry them through.  I'm not convinced they can do it again this year.

[weneedneshek]

30 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

A simple 12 game win streak and we will look back on these days and laugh. 

I don't even need that much. Just a cool 9-4 over our next 13 against beatable opponents to get back to .500. That's all baseball gods. Please 🙏

[Tibs]

Damn better call the season off boys

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

I don't even need that much. Just a cool 9-4 over our next 13 against beatable opponents to get back to .500. That's all baseball gods. Please 🙏

Good idea lowering that hurdle. 

[old nurse]

Another couple weeks there will be countless articles on the top pick in the draft for 2025  The geniuses who put together 3 division championships in 7 years will be considered buffoons. The words total system failure will be exposed by too many people. 

[Blyleven2011]

I don't really know what to say that I haven't said before ...

The ALC opposition strengthened in the off season  and the twins reduced payroll and quality starting pitching was let go and not replaced , we traded switch hitting Polanco for a injured pitcher , ( desclafini out for the season ) , topa ( injured and only 1 successful mlb season )  and a  prospect and replaced Polanco with free agent switch hitting Santana  , we traded a shortstop  prospect for Margot  to cover a position of uncertainty  ( buxton )  ...

We addressed the bullpen  and on paper it looks solid  ...

The regime likes power and we didn't address that  , we are not a Homerun hitting team , solo  Homer's make no difference  , clutch 3 run Homer's  are the game changer ...

Last but not least the front office didn't take into consideration for the sophomore jinx  , we did not address our depth for hitting   ...

Forget the injuries for now , the twins have professionals to fill the gaps and win games but something could be holding them back and that just might be not letting the players play the way they are capable of and inserting their plan into the players that just isn't working  ... 

Name of the game is to win games and if we aren't winning games it all comes down to the coaching , the coaching isn't getting it done with the professional players we have and someone needs to be held accountable  !!!!

What the FO did over the off season was not a recipe for playoff success  ...

[Fire Dan Gladden]

10 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Another couple weeks there will be countless articles on the top pick in the draft for 2025  The geniuses who put together 3 division championships in 7 years will be considered buffoons. The words total system failure will be exposed by too many people. 

With 100% blame on the Front Office and coaching staff and no accountability to the Ownership group that hamstrung the organization this winter...

Don't forget blaming the culture/approach for the lack of offense instead of the players who can't hit the ball.

[farmerguychris]

I really wonder if the ownership/the F.O. would have signed Correa had they known that one player (as good as he is) would be preventing them from being competitive.  This is a team game, and with that much of your self imposed salary cap invested in one spot (especially when on the IL) - you're setting yourself us to be 'short staffed' in other areas.  

[Doctor Gast]

There are many teams with less budget than the Twins that are doing better than the Twins. It's a matter of better player evaluations & development resulting in some proactive trades. So I don't put all the blame on ownership. I disliked every transaction the Twins did this off-season we had better players on the team & gave away than who we acquired, I knew there'd be some regression from some of the players & they never addressed our real needs. I knew contrary to many that we didn't have a team to compete in the postseason but I figured we could easily win the division. But I didn't figure on an early Lewis exit, a player like Soto who can carry a team & Correa, the backbone of our INF & one of our better hitters.

When national podcasters discuss the AL Central division race now, they mention CLE/ KC & DET has an outside chance but do not mention MN at all. I still believe we can win but Lewis & Correa need to return, players like Buxton need to really turn it on, they need to figure out how to use Paddack/ Varland/ SWR & their hitting approach. When Duran comes back our BP should be awesome. When we get to that point they need to finally decide how to address the lack of 2nd postseason SP.

[Florida Flash]

Just now, Fire Dan Gladden said:

With 100% blame on the Front Office and coaching staff and no accountability to the Ownership group that hamstrung the organization this winter...

Don't forget blaming the culture/approach for the lack of offense instead of the players who can't hit the ball.

They grossly overpaid Buxton before he really proved much. A fabulous one half of a season. (2021) but that's been it. Granted great defense, but there are a lot of guys that are great outfielders that cant hit either. He needs to hit a whole lot better. $6 million for Farmer??? Kepler's salary? (No wonder they cant trade him) Correa $35M/yr??? The Astros should pay him that, that is where he had great numbers. This is not hind sight, I said so at the time of the signings. But apparently that is the going rates for mediocre players (I'm not referring to Correa as mediocre just think $35M is absurd) and also why I can afford to go to a game very often. So no wonder they have to cut expenses. I'd start with the FO. Oh well, raise the prices some more and chase even more fans away.

[beterday]

Who would not have predicted a better team with the addition of #1: Buxton fully healthy and playing center field.  I suspected, but hoped against, his creating a competition with Sano for the worst hitting approach and most predictable strike outs in the major leagues.  #2 Of course we would get a full year out of Royce Lewis.  Nobody is so unlucky as to keep losing season after season to injury; #3 Julien is not going to regress, his going to become Tony Gwynn or Rod Carew, not continue to beat his head against the wall trying to prove to umpires he can see a pitch as 1/4 inch off the plate and then have the umpire call him out on strikes;  #4 (probably #2) Correa is going to be healthy after an entire year lost to Plantar Fasciitis;  #5 Alex Kiroloff is a hitter.  After being injured throughout his career "he is fixed" and becomes a mainstay on-base-with-power guy.  Griffin Jax says everybody is pressing and its easy to see why, everybody is lousy (Webster def: extremely contemptible or nasty) and its hard to be confident when the whole team sucks.

[D.C Twins]

Losing a bunch of games hurts your playoff chances.... Hot Take?

[roger]

Ted, the only playoff odds that matter are the odds come September 30.

As for reducing the payroll.  With Lewis, Correa and Kepler out injured the lineup is playing with one arm tied behind them.  Add that nearly everyone playing, except Jeffers, AK and Martin, are hitting 100 points or lower than one would expect, having another $30M of payroll for one really good pitcher wouldn't make a heck of a lot difference.  But it sure doesn't help that this year's additions, Santana and Margot, could and probably should be replaced...and soon.  Didn't like those signings when they were made, don't like'em now. 

[Schmoeman5]

Here's my take for what it's worth. And it's not unique to just the Twins. The 2024 projections were based on a lot of "ifs". If Lewis could stay healthy and build off his successful 2023 campaign. If Correa could return to form. Being hobbled for most of 2023. If Buxton who was finally healthy could play X amount of games and put up mvp like numbers. If Kepler produced what he did in the 2nd half last year. If Julien and Wallner don't have the dreaded sophomore slump. And maintained what they did with a " slight" drop-off.  If Jeffers could match last year. If Vasquez could improve his poor hitting season and continue his solid catching. If Varland, Paddack, and or DeSclafani could replace Maeda and Gray's innings with similar results. Super utility man Castro would cover the diamond and contribute offensively. Santana was going to push Kirilloff aside with his defense and his ability to hit left handers. Margot was going to help as a defensive plug and add offense against lefties. The bullpen was going to be one of the best in baseball. Farmer being a solid infield backup with good numbers vs lefthanders. And Martin and Lee were knocking on the door. Sure it's only 17 games. But at this point, MOST of those "ifs" haven't delivered. I just believe that perhaps it may have been too large an ask for all those to fall into place and run away with another division crown in a cakewalk. 

[UpstateNewYorker]

3 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

I really wonder if the ownership/the F.O. would have signed Correa had they known that one player (as good as he is) would be preventing them from being competitive.  This is a team game, and with that much of your self imposed salary cap invested in one spot (especially when on the IL) - you're setting yourself us to be 'short staffed' in other areas.  

This is a good point, but it seems like ownership/the FO has to have the foresight to know whether Correa's contract might hamstring them down the road before they commit to that signing. That's kind of their job.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I'm still not sure why we consider Detroit as easy pushover W's. They're not. LAA could be an equal to this team too by the looks of it. They better get well on CWS I would say.

[sweetmusicviola16]

3 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

I really wonder if the ownership/the F.O. would have signed Correa had they known that one player (as good as he is) would be preventing them from being competitive.  This is a team game, and with that much of your self imposed salary cap invested in one spot (especially when on the IL) - you're setting yourself us to be 'short staffed' in other areas.  

That's the Pohlad mentality. Sign Mauer in 2010, Correa in 2023 to big buck deals then think you can stay in the shallow end of the pool in filling out the roster around them.  

I guess I forgot the bad investment made in Buxton. He thinks he can hit HR's with Ruth and Bonds. Instead he K's. A lot. He has a lot of the same talent of Rickey Henderson,but not the make up. 

[Loops]

It is fantastic to have a great bullpen, but that is kind of a back-handed compliment.  If we get down by 5-6 runs from the starters, and we cannot produce runs, even if our bullpen gives up zero runs we will be hard-pressed to win many games.

[old nurse]

23 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

With 100% blame on the Front Office and coaching staff and no accountability to the Ownership group that hamstrung the organization this winter...

Don't forget blaming the culture/approach for the lack of offense instead of the players who can't hit the ball.

The horse that is the payroll discussion has been beaten so much that the bones are dust in the wind 

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I don't really know what to say that I haven't said before ...

The ALC opposition strengthened in the off season  and the twins reduced payroll and quality starting pitching was let go and not replaced , we traded switch hitting Polanco for a injured pitcher , ( desclafini out for the season ) , topa ( injured and only 1 successful mlb season )  and a  prospect and replaced Polanco with free agent switch hitting Santana  , we traded a shortstop  prospect for Margot  to cover a position of uncertainty  ( buxton )  ...

We addressed the bullpen  and on paper it looks solid  ...

The regime likes power and we didn't address that  , we are not a Homerun hitting team , solo  Homer's make no difference  , clutch 3 run Homer's  are the game changer ...

Last but not least the front office didn't take into consideration for the sophomore jinx  , we did not address our depth for hitting   ...

Forget the injuries for now , the twins have professionals to fill the gaps and win games but something could be holding them back and that just might be not letting the players play the way they are capable of and inserting their plan into the players that just isn't working  ... 

Name of the game is to win games and if we aren't winning games it all comes down to the coaching , the coaching isn't getting it done with the professional players we have and someone needs to be held accountable  !!!!

What the FO did over the off season was not a recipe for playoff success  ...

IMO, you gotta be kidding. It’s “coaching”?

Wallner disappeared……Lewis got in 2AB’s, IL…..,,10 year vet in RF out after a handful of games, IL………”leader”, SS on IL in the second week of season…..,,.#3, #4, #5, & #7 hitters OUT!

Top prospect is hurt, IL.

The guy Polanco was traded for, Topa, has been out hurt along with Duran for first 18 games. Lopez - Ober - Ryan have pitched 4 times giving up one run or none and they lost all four with no run support.

.252 career BA hitting .088 - Farmer

.256 career BA hitting .121 - Vazquez

.245 career BA hitting .134 - Castro

.255 career BA hitting .179 - Margot

.241 career BA hitting .121 - Santana

.240 career BA hitting .197 - Buxton

.250 career BA hitting .169 - Julien

7 guys under .200 …. most, considerably under .200!

The F.O. signed/hired the guys in the left column - that’s who Baldelli is supposed to be managing.

Dick Williams, Billy Martin, Tony LaRussa, Bruce Bochy couldn’t win with this type of offensive output. Can’t see how coaching “professional athletes” on how to hit at this point in their careers is a real topic?

 

 

[LastOnePicked]

When the Twins were being predicted as the ALC winner for 2024, that's when I started rethinking any grand optimism I had. When have the Twins - especially Rocco's Twins - ever lived up to high expectations? For some reason, expectations almost seem to create a mental block for this club. They just fall apart, whether it be at the start or at the end of a season.

I understand the Lewis and Correa injuries have taken a toll, but come on. This isn't some fluke poor start - this is veering into "total system failure" territory again.

[LastOnePicked]

23 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

IMO, you gotta be kidding. It’s “coaching”?

Read your post again. You're saying that players with stronger established career track records (5 of the 7 you mention have played the majority of their careers outside of MN) are suddenly struggling with the Twins ... and the coaching staff here has *nothing* to do with it? I'm not sure you're making the case you think you are.

I sometimes wonder what folks think "coaches" are actually hired to do. Fill out a lineup card? Take up a spot on the bench? Answer a few postgame questions? Presumably, they might at some time be responsible for player development and performance. Crazy thought, I know.

[IndianaTwin]

I do enjoy the part where Chicago appears to have started at about 0.5 percent and have trended downward. I was not expecting anything out of them, but woooow…

[Woof Bronzer]

42 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

IMO, you gotta be kidding. It’s “coaching”?

Wallner disappeared……Lewis got in 2AB’s, IL…..,,10 year vet in RF out after a handful of games, IL………”leader”, SS on IL in the second week of season…..,,.#3, #4, #5, & #7 hitters OUT!

Top prospect is hurt, IL.

The guy Polanco was traded for, Topa, has been out hurt along with Duran for first 18 games. Lopez - Ober - Ryan have pitched 4 times giving up one run or none and they lost all four with no run support.

.252 career BA hitting .088 - Farmer

.256 career BA hitting .121 - Vazquez

.245 career BA hitting .134 - Castro

.255 career BA hitting .179 - Margot

.241 career BA hitting .121 - Santana

.240 career BA hitting .197 - Buxton

.250 career BA hitting .169 - Julien

7 guys under .200 …. most, considerably under .200!

The F.O. signed/hired the guys in the left column - that’s who Baldelli is supposed to be managing.

 

It's not just the coaching, and I am not calling for Rocco's head because he'd just be replaced by a clone, but your post actually has me convinced it's MORE coaching than I previously thought.  An entire roster of players underperforming against their career norms by similar margins under this coaching staff.  Which scenario is more likely:  that an entire roster is coincidentally individually underperforming, or some philosophy or coaching or approach is causing an entire roster to underperform by roughly similar proportions?  

Let me ask you this:  what metrics do you use to rate a manager?  And how is Rocco performing against those metrics?  

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, LastOnePicked said:

Read your post again. You're saying that players with stronger established career track records (5 of the 7 you mention have played the majority of their careers outside of MN) are suddenly struggling with the Twins ... and the coaching staff here has *nothing* to do with it? I'm not sure you're making the case you think you are.

I sometimes wonder what folks think "coaches" are actually hired to do. Fill out a lineup card? Take up a spot on the bench? Answer a few postgame questions? Presumably, they might at some time be responsible for player development and performance. Crazy thought, I know.

Wallner - Buxton - Kepler - Julien ……,none performing …,……..,SAME coaches as July - September of ‘23. Accurate? “Twin’s guys.” Accurate?

Jeffers - Kirilloff (Twin’s guys) seeking advice from the Brewer’s hitting coach for success??

Castro had best success of his career last year after being exposed to the poisonous coaching in MN.

Farmer hit .255 in ‘23 - dead on his career BA…..had the same coaches then as now - maybe they weren’t able to poison him in just 1 season?

Correa hit .290 in ‘22……. .230 in ‘23 while injured …….. .306 so far in ‘24

Margot has been OK through career at best - Santana was/is washed from the left side (well sighted fact pointed out when he was acquired)……at 38, he should be able to figure it out IMO!

Players play. …….,,,is Corey Seager asking the batting coach in Texas how to hit every other day??

Just don’t get the excuse of “it’s coaches” when swinging at pitches down, out of the zone & taking fastballs in the zone……watching Buxton flail at a slider or sinker out of the zone for the first pitch from EVERY GUY he faces is an adjustment a hitter needs to make between his ears…..,Do the hitters need a psychologist to clean up their minds, maybe?

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

It's not just the coaching, and I am not calling for Rocco's head because he'd just be replaced by a clone, but your post actually has me convinced it's MORE coaching than I previously thought.  An entire roster of players underperforming against their career norms by similar margins under this coaching staff.  Which scenario is more likely:  that an entire roster is coincidentally individually underperforming, or some philosophy or coaching or approach is causing an entire roster to underperform by roughly similar proportions?  

Let me ask you this:  what metrics do you use to rate a manager?  And how is Rocco performing against those metrics?  

Wins - Losses with reasonably performing players…….the only way to critique a manager. If 4 presumed starters are out, the Manager is toast. Take 4 starters out of the Big Red Machine……..Rose(3B) - Foster(LF) - Concepcion(SS) are all hurt and young guy, Dreesen is hitting .050. They look a lot different at that point……..particularly if Morgan - Geronimo are stinking it up.

A hitting coach can’t screw up 8 guys at the same time - these are grown men - professional hitters, not 16 year olds.

SAME coaches as 2nd half of 2023 season. 

[Woof Bronzer]

14 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Wins - Losses with reasonably performing players…….the only way to critique a manager.

SAME coaches as 2nd half of 2023 season. 

Well then Rocco is failing.  They're 7 games out and it isn't yet May.  

I believe Rocco was also the manager in the 1st half of 2023, the entirety of 2022 (78 wins), 2021 (73 wins)..do those count?  Why does it only count when the team does well?