To Turn Around Twins Offense, Have Guys Hit More Like Austin Martin - Caretaker Exclusive

[Matthew Trueblood]

Didn't expect to read that headline before we even reached May Day, did you? But hey, maybe May Day is here, even while it's April on the calendar.

Image courtesy of © David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 season is off to a nightmarish start for the Minnesota Twins. They've lost their two best position players to injuries and the two guys they hoped would be upside plays at the back end of the starting rotation are showing off their downsides, instead, but worst of all, the team's offensive approach looks broken again. The Twins are 27th in MLB in wOBA and have the third-highest strikeout rate in the league.

Coming into the season, we knew this team would strike out a lot. It's wired into their approach at the plate, and by consciously refusing to make major changes to that approach when the count reaches two strikes, they're leaning into the risk of strikeouts. When they're going right, though, they make up for that with the walks and power that are part of that same approach. They lay off pitches on the edges of the zone as a matter of policy, and if that means taking a lot of called third strikes, so be it. Philosophically, they want to wait for a pitch they can crush and then crush it.

The good news, if you're feeling generous, is that that is working, as far as it goes. On four-seam fastballs, the Twins have the seventh-highest wOBA in MLB. They're second-best against curveballs, too. What are they looking for? Stuff without a lot of wiggle, that both starts and ends over the white of the plate. What happens when they get it? They hit it hard.

The bad news, as you've already guessed, is everything else. The Twins are 29th in wOBA against sinkers, 27th against sliders and sweepers, and dead last against splitters and changeups. In Harmon Killebrew's time, executing this strategy this well would have led to one of the best offenses in baseball, because most pitchers threw fastballs that we'd now consider pretty straight, and paired it with curveballs. As any calendar and at least one grave marker will tell you, though, this is not Harmon Killebrew's time.

How do you fix this problem? How do you take a studied and carefully crafted but insufficiently nuanced team approach and make it more flexible, more dynamic, and more effective? And how on Earth is the answer to that question a guy whom no one wanted to see be a lineup fixture until a handful of days ago?

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[DJL44]

I think moving their offense up to the below average level that Austin Martin has produced would be an improvement over their terrible performance so far but it isn't going to win a pennant.

[RpR]

Watching pitches go down the middle of the strike zone did not happen in Harmon's day either.

Trout and Witt must get all old school pitches.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree on the approach, but I question your "None of that constitutes stardom, especially given Martin's defensive limitations" comment. What defensive limitations? Martin appears to be an above average fielding LF and has looked at least competent in CF. Do you see him differently and, if so, why? I'm genuinely curious because I think his speed and defense gives him a role on this team above a Wallner or Larnach, even if the latter two improve to league average hitting with more power. 

Martin has hit 267/.333/.367 since essentially becoming a starter. That's probably not quite good enough to be an everyday player but pretty damn close, and it's definitely good enough to be the 4th OF if he plays well in the OF. I think if Martin can hit .267/.350/.400 plus with a SO % of 20% or less, he's an MLB starter on most teams if he is an above average OF.  Maybe not a star, but an everyday player. I think he is an above average OF.  He's close at the plate and may get there or more soon. That's why your fielding comment baffles me.

I think Martin and Miranda have shot at earning big league starting jobs over the next month. I'd like to see them do it because Lord knows we need it. 

[Guest]

That’s a lot of face paint.

[Rosterman]

You get the chance and you run with it. Plus, Martin can also play second. And the Twins can figure out first base for the long-term then...will it be Julien or Miranda. Glad to see Kirilloff in the outfield, the one with the most service time and the priority of the Twins needing to make a longterm decision.

The sad part of the season so far as that the Twins didn't add strengths to weakness (like experience in the rotation, for one). We can argue the veteran presence of Santana and Margot being equal to Taytlor in the outfield. But many of us are wishing we still had Polanco with an option year rather than, say, Kepler.

But one does what one does within salary constraints, and Rocco has to put together a lineup. No easy task today.

[Karbo]

What happens when they get it? They hit it hard.

This is a big part of the problem so far, they have either wiffed on, or popped out. or grounders over and over this season. Yah, I know its early yet, but if they don't turn this around real soon, they will be chasing the rest of the season. 

I also wonder if they need some sort of a shrink to work with them and try to overcome the clutch hitting problem.

 

[Karbo]

They better start scoring more because as of now it looks like our starting pitchers only go 3 deep. Crying shame Lopez didn't get a win yesterday. 1 mistake in 6 innings. I think once again Rocco overplayed his stat sheet pulling him after only 87 pitches. They would have lost anyway, unless they could score a few runs!

[Mark G]

I really do love these articles, and I mean no offense when I critique them, but...........we are 27th in this, 29th in this, and 27th in this.  But wait!  We are 7th in this, and 2ND in this; gotta have some good news in here somewhere.

You know what?  We are 4th in a 5 team division that was projected to be pretty weak.  That's the only th I care about.  

In my line of work (mental health) we tell our clients " do you want something better in your life?  Then it is going to have to be something different; 'cause if you do what you've always done, you're  gonna get what you've always got."  For this team to be better, it is going to have to do something different!!  I just question if they want to.  

Thanks, though, Matthew for the info that most of us don't have.  Where would we be without our writers?  🙂

[Doctor Gast]

I never doubted Martin, just wait until he really feels comfortable in the MLB.

[JD-TWINS]

15 minutes ago, Karbo said:

They better start scoring more because as of now it looks like our starting pitchers only go 3 deep. Crying shame Lopez didn't get a win yesterday. 1 mistake in 6 innings. I think once again Rocco overplayed his stat sheet pulling him after only 87 pitches. They would have lost anyway, unless they could score a few runs!

Can’t win scoring two runs. Pablo deserved better. I too thought he might go one more - no problem with him getting pulled though. 2 hits & zero walks…..ouch!

Can they win 5 of 7 on the Home-stand?

Maeda gave up a bunch today for Detroit - Urshella butchered a run down tag - maybe the Tigers are reverting back to their real level of about 80 total wins.

[Jocko87]

I think emulating Martin by putting the fat part of the bat on the ball will work wonders. Martin was never going to be a power hitter but if the guys with more of a power profile get the damn bat to the ball the power will take care of itself.

[rv78]

5 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Martin has hit 267/.333/.367 since essentially becoming a starter. That's probably not quite good enough to be an everyday player

This is quite hilarious when you consider that these numbers would be huge improvements for Buxton and Kepler, who have been everyday players, (when healthy) for 9 years on the Twins. Just goes to show how low the Twins bar is.

[Eris]

You mean the Austin Martin who was the 22nd ranked MLB prospect in 2021 whom the Twins tried to change his swing to generate more power. They screwed up his swing so badly that some even questioned if he would be an MLB player. The difficulty in wishing for more players like Austin Martin is that the Twins try very hard not to acquire/draft such plays and if they do they change their swing or trade them. 
 

One aspect of the Twins hitting philosophy that really makes me question how hitters are being coached is the pitches on the outside part of the plate that batters try to pull rather than hitting to the opposite field. Buxton seems to be in that zone right now. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree on that. We will see Buxton start to hit when he starts to fly out to right center. This fly outs will become line drive doubles and he'll go on a heater. I think Julien is poised to break out in part because he's hitting the ball to left center. Just needs to swing more. 

It's like the old days. When Mauer or Morneau were cold and then started to take walks, you knew they were coming out of it because they were seeing the ball well. When Buxton and Kepler start to drive the ball the opposite way, they are ready to roll at the plate. 

[Eris]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

 

It's like the old days. When Mauer or Morneau were cold 

This article appeared in April 2014. At that point in his career Joe Mauer’s longest hitless streak was 0 for 10. 
 

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-sports/mauer-snaps-hitless-streak-in-twins-win

 

 

[h2oface]

13 hours ago, Karbo said:

They better start scoring more because as of now it looks like our starting pitchers only go 3 deep. Crying shame Lopez didn't get a win yesterday. 1 mistake in 6 innings. I think once again Rocco overplayed his stat sheet pulling him after only 87 pitches. They would have lost anyway, unless they could score a few runs!

When a pitcher purposely throws the first pitch down the middle it’s hardly a mistake. Pablo Day López was betting on blowing it right by for a 0-1 count to start the game. A bit arrogant, but good bet on a first pitch take, too. Not a mistake, though. 

[Cagycat]

Looks to me like everyone is going to the plate to hit a dinger!  Maybe instead of that try playing a little small ball. Twins used to be very good at it. Not everyone on the team is a power bat. Yes let’s play like Austin does , just get on base and go from there.

[Florida Flash]

Just wait. The Twins coaches havent had enough time to screw up Austin's swing and mechanics......yet.

[joefish]

15 hours ago, Eris said:

You mean the Austin Martin who was the 22nd ranked MLB prospect in 2021 whom the Twins tried to change his swing to generate more power. They screwed up his swing so badly that some even questioned if he would be an MLB player. The difficulty in wishing for more players like Austin Martin is that the Twins try very hard not to acquire/draft such plays and if they do they change their swing or trade them. 
 

One aspect of the Twins hitting philosophy that really makes me question how hitters are being coached is the pitches on the outside part of the plate that batters try to pull rather than hitting to the opposite field. Buxton seems to be in that zone right now. 

And when Buxton reached out and pulled a low outside fastball down the left field line one announcer raved about his plate coverage. He should have driven it down the right field line,  where it was pitched. 

I'm glad he got the hit but...

[KBJ1]

Their 2 strike approach is the biggest problem. Mauer, it seemed, would intentionally take two strikes,  then proceed to hit the ball up the middle.

That's how you win games - put the ball in play! Not to mention 2 batting titles.

I have been a firm believer in Martin's style of play and approach at the plate.

Wasting money on the likes of Margot & Santana, not to mention DeSclafani cost them $15M and the chance of signing a decent pitcher.

Here we are with Martin, Miranda & Varland up anyways. And $15M poorer.

And yes, Buxton is only good when he hits the ball to all fields, like he did in early 2022. Trying to pull a slider with two strikes is why we lead the league in strikeouts. Everyone seems to know this but the hitting coach.

A bloop single, a stolen base & a couple of bunts will lead to a run.

3 K's with the bases loaded leads to zeros.

[RpR]

8 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

Their 2 strike approach is the biggest problem. Mauer, it seemed, would intentionally take two strikes,  then proceed to hit the ball up the middle.

That's how you win games - put the ball in play! Not to mention 2 batting titles.

I have been a firm believer in Martin's style of play and approach at the plate.

Wasting money on the likes of Margot & Santana, not to mention DeSclafani cost them $15M and the chance of signing a decent pitcher.

Here we are with Martin, Miranda & Varland up anyways. And $15M poorer.

And yes, Buxton is only good when he hits the ball to all fields, like he did in early 2022. Trying to pull a slider with two strikes is why we lead the league in strikeouts. Everyone seems to know this but the hitting coach.

A bloop single, a stolen base & a couple of bunts will lead to a run.

3 K's with the bases loaded leads to zeros.

Well, it works both ways; for quite some time posters peed and moaned the Twins were ONLY a bomba squad, not enough small ball.  This year the small ball is still mostly gone, and when they do get runners on, double plays or strike outs are what are common.

So, I miss the bomba squad, at least single run home runs put the opposing pitchers on edge.

[Larry Janisewski]

On 4/18/2024 at 1:54 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree on the approach, but I question your "None of that constitutes stardom, especially given Martin's defensive limitations" comment. What defensive limitations? Martin appears to be an above average fielding LF and has looked at least competent in CF. Do you see him differently and, if so, why? I'm genuinely curious because I think his speed and defense gives him a role on this team above a Wallner or Larnach, even if the latter two improve to league average hitting with more power. 

Martin has hit 267/.333/.367 since essentially becoming a starter. That's probably not quite good enough to be an everyday player but pretty damn close, and it's definitely good enough to be the 4th OF if he plays well in the OF. I think if Martin can hit .267/.350/.400 plus with a SO % of 20% or less, he's an MLB starter on most teams if he is an above average OF.  Maybe not a star, but an everyday player. I think he is an above average OF.  He's close at the plate and may get there or more soon. That's why your fielding comment baffles me.

I think Martin and Miranda have shot at earning big league starting jobs over the next month. I'd like to see them do it because Lord knows we need it. 

When your team batting average is .184 as it was going into the Baltimore series a .267 average is spectacular.

[mrcharlie]

Baseball, like most pro sports at that level is a game of adjustments.  The competition has adjusted to the Twins hitting approach and until we see the Twins countering that, and change their approach to hitting particularly with two strikes,  then I see no reason for improvement.

[joefish]

If we had 9 Austin Martins in our lineup  would we be contenders?