The 2024 season is off to a nightmarish start for the Minnesota Twins. They've lost their two best position players to injuries and the two guys they hoped would be upside plays at the back end of the starting rotation are showing off their downsides, instead, but worst of all, the team's offensive approach looks broken again. The Twins are 27th in MLB in wOBA and have the third-highest strikeout rate in the league.
Coming into the season, we knew this team would strike out a lot. It's wired into their approach at the plate, and by consciously refusing to make major changes to that approach when the count reaches two strikes, they're leaning into the risk of strikeouts. When they're going right, though, they make up for that with the walks and power that are part of that same approach. They lay off pitches on the edges of the zone as a matter of policy, and if that means taking a lot of called third strikes, so be it. Philosophically, they want to wait for a pitch they can crush and then crush it.
The good news, if you're feeling generous, is that that is working, as far as it goes. On four-seam fastballs, the Twins have the seventh-highest wOBA in MLB. They're second-best against curveballs, too. What are they looking for? Stuff without a lot of wiggle, that both starts and ends over the white of the plate. What happens when they get it? They hit it hard.
The bad news, as you've already guessed, is everything else. The Twins are 29th in wOBA against sinkers, 27th against sliders and sweepers, and dead last against splitters and changeups. In Harmon Killebrew's time, executing this strategy this well would have led to one of the best offenses in baseball, because most pitchers threw fastballs that we'd now consider pretty straight, and paired it with curveballs. As any calendar and at least one grave marker will tell you, though, this is not Harmon Killebrew's time.
How do you fix this problem? How do you take a studied and carefully crafted but insufficiently nuanced team approach and make it more flexible, more dynamic, and more effective? And how on Earth is the answer to that question a guy whom no one wanted to see be a lineup fixture until a handful of days ago?
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