In a Crowded Twins Pitching Picture, Don't Overlook This Southpaw Prospect

[Cody Christie]

Since being drafted in 2019, Brent Headrick moved quickly through the Minnesota Twins system. Is he being overlooked because of other arms in the team’s pitching pipeline?

Image courtesy of Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Organizations need pitching depth throughout a 162-game season, to overcome injuries and poor performance. The Twins hired Derek Falvey to replicate the successful pitching pipeline he helped develop in Cleveland. Minnesota is starting to see the fruits of that labor, with the team projected to have one of the AL’s best pitching staffs in 2024. They have amassed depth by fishing in multiple rivers, including drafting and developing young players and trading for arms, then tweaking specific pitches. 

The Twins drafted Brent Headrick from Illinois State University in the 9th round of the 2019 MLB Draft. Minnesota’s current front office has shown a tendency to draft college pitchers from lesser-known schools in the draft’s later rounds, in hopes of working with the player on slight mechanical adjustments to improve velocity and pitch mix. Tracking his development in the Twins system has been challenging, because the pandemic wiped out what should have been his first full professional campaign. Headrick only sits in the low 90s with his fastball, but he has a good slider that can get swings and misses from lefties and righties.

The 2021 season was Headrick’s first chance to make an impression on the Twins organization, but shoulder issues limited him to 16 appearances. In 63 innings, he posted a 3.71 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and an 88-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Fort Myers. Minnesota moved him up to High-A for the start of the 2022 season, and he dominated, with a 2.34 ERA and 10.6 K/9 across 15 starts. His strikeout rate increased to 12.3 K/9 when he was promoted to Double-A in the second half, which made it easy to add him to the team’s 40-man roster. 

So, what have been Headrick’s strengths when moving through the upper minors?

“For me, fastball has always been a strength, slider has always been good," Headrick told Twins Daily's John Bonnes. "And now this year, we’re trying to promote the splitter a little bit more to give that third weapon.”

The left-handed pitcher went on to say that he was comfortable using his secondary pitches against righties and lefties, so it will be interesting to see how he approaches hitters early in the season. 

Last season, Headrick began the year at St. Paul, and it was the first time he was over a year younger than the average age of the competition at his level. At Triple-A, he posted a 4.68 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 in what is considered a hitter-friendly league. With the Twins, he was asked to pitch multiple innings in half of his appearances, but he continued to strike out more than 10 batters per inning. His biggest issue was keeping the ball in the park, with seven home runs allowed in 25 2/3 innings. Adding an improved splitter can help him to keep batters more off-balance and improve his big-league performance. 

Headrick pitched as a starter in the minors, but all his big-league appearances came in a relief role. He plans to build up as a starter to begin the season, because it's easier to transition from that to a relief role than to do the reverse.

“I have pretty even splits for the most part, but the slider plays really well to lefties and righties," he said. "My biggest goal this year for righties is to get that splitter moving away from them, so they have a different look than just a slider coming in.”

Headrick’s path to the big leagues in 2024 isn’t as straightforward as it would have been in previous seasons. The Twins have added to the bullpen this winter, which leaves the club with three left-handed options ahead of Headrick on the depth chart: Caleb Thielbar, Steven Okert, and Kody Funderburk. Minnesota has five pitchers penciled into the rotation, with other options slated for Triple-A, like Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Matt Canterino. Headrick will begin the year in St. Paul, and must prove his new pitch mix is effective to earn a call-up.

Fans have clamored for the Twins to add pitching depth, and that’s one of the main goals of the current regime. Headrick fits into that pitching puzzle, and can play a significant role in 2024 and beyond.

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What role will Headrick play with the Twins this season? Will his new pitch mix make him more effective? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

Reporter credit: @John Bonnes

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[Karbo]

Could he develop into the quality LH starter the Twins have been missing for the last few years, or he going to be another bullpen guy?

[Major League Ready]

He might get some starter innings the next year to year and a half, but it will be quite disappointing if some combination of Festa / Raya / Canterino / Culpepper and Prielipp don't force him to the BP.  Of course, should his stuff improve in a way that elevates his ceiling to level of these other prospects, great!   That would be the opposite of disappointing.  If he could get the same type of uptick that Jax got going to the pen we might have a new version of Glen Perkins.

[arby58]

Assume it is '10 batters per nine innings' because it would be practically impossible to strike out 10 batters per inning. I'll admit to thinking Headrick was in a bit over his head last year. Maybe a third pitch will improve his chances.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Headrick strikes me as being an AAA+ pitcher. Good enough to do well in the minors but not good enough to consistently get major leaguers out. Hopefully he takes a step forward this season but I would think other prospects will be more impactful...

[KBJ1]

Well it's either Velocity or Deception.

If he developed a pitch that moves away from rightness or comes backmover the outside edge to lefties, with control, that's what it's all about. Still might need a 4th pitch though.

[JD-TWINS]

48 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

He might get some starter innings the next year to year and a half, but it will be quite disappointing if some combination of Festa / Raya / Canterino / Culpepper and Prielipp don't force him to the BP.  Of course, should his stuff improve in a way that elevates his ceiling to level of these other prospects, great!   That would be the opposite of disappointing.  If he could get the same type of uptick that Jax got going to the pen we might have a new version of Glen Perkins.

I think he’s in the mix with these other guys (can Prielipp even throw?) ……Raya seems fragile to date due to protective status within organization. Canterino seems to be a darling here but has 85 pro innings over the past 4+ years. Cullpepper isn’t on radar yet for me ……Festa seems like he’s only a couple months away from helping intermittently.

Headrick threw 27 innings in the bigs - he was just OK at best. The new splitter & having command of it would be a big dea!. I can see him getting 4-5 spots starts in the Show this year………won’t be disappointed if he outshines anyone on this list……Ober gets guys out with a similar fastball MPH.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'll admit, I overlook him as a prospect/option for the pitching staff. But he has a decent fastball, decent command, and he is left handed and breathing. Hopefully he takes some strides with adding a splitter, and with that can take a step forward.

[bean5302]

I don't consider Headrick more than MiLB roster filler. A 1.30 WHIP and mid 4's ERA doesn't project well to the MLB level. I wouldn't bat an eye if the Twins DFA'd him.

[MinnInPa]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Headrick strikes me as being an AAA+ pitcher. Good enough to do well in the minors but not good enough to consistently get major leaguers out. Hopefully he takes a step forward this season but I would think other prospects will be more impactful...

that's the Twins farm system in a nutshell.. they develop AAA wonders..but dont even develop into #5 starters at the big league level.. they get to the bigs and get shelled

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

1 minute ago, MinnInPa said:

that's the Twins farm system in a nutshell.. they develop AAA wonders..but dont even develop into #5 starters at the big league level.. they get to the bigs and get shelled

Ober is probably the best one of late, right? 

[Kenny Powers]

Good read.  We are going to have some good Left handed options this year - which is good because Thielbar is now 37 years old....I'm not sure how long he's going to hold up.

Beyond Headrick, I like this Steven Okert they picked up.  He's not young (32), but has had a pretty successful career and seems to have decent velocity.

But the guy I'm really curious to see pitch this spring is Jovani Moran.  He played himself off the roster last year.  But he's still only 26 and really looked like a good left handed arm until he had a down year last season.  If he's healthy, I'd expect him to make his way back on the roster at some point.

It's been mentioned many times on here, but we really seem to have a lot of interesting bullpen options this year.

 

[bean5302]

28 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Ober is probably the best one of late, right? 

Yeah. Ober is the biggest starting pitcher development success story in recent years. Berrios was the previous. I was hoping for Winder, but the shoulder pretty much wiped his rotation projection out.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Headrick threw 27 innings in the bigs - he was just OK at best. The new splitter & having command of it would be a big dea!. I can see him getting 4-5 spots starts in the Show this year………won’t be disappointed if he outshines anyone on this list……Ober gets guys out with a similar fastball MPH.

Ober has the advantage of being 6'9", so he delivers the ball from a fairly unique angle and has a release point closer to the batter, which 'speeds up' his fastball in comparison to Headrick or most other pitchers.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah. Ober is the biggest starting pitcher development success story in recent years. Berrios was the previous. I was hoping for Winder, but the shoulder pretty much wiped his rotation projection out.

With you on Winder. Had high hopes for him during the 2022 season but alas...

[arby58]

42 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

But the guy I'm really curious to see pitch this spring is Jovani Moran.  He played himself off the roster last year.  But he's still only 26 and really looked like a good left handed arm until he had a down year last season.  If he's healthy, I'd expect him to make his way back on the roster at some point.

Only if he can improve his control - a relief pitcher with 52 BB in 91 innings is not going to cut it.

[Kenny Powers]

24 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Only if he can improve his control - a relief pitcher with 52 BB in 91 innings is not going to cut it.

Agreed.  Still...the season prior he had 18 walks in 40 innings which was good enough for 2.21 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.  Relievers will drive you crazy with their ups and downs which is why I HATE trading for them (see Jorge Lopez, Dylan Floro etc.)

Regardless, Moron hasn't thrown yet this Spring, so I'm very curious to see if he's healthy again.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

Agreed.  Still...the season prior he had 18 walks in 40 innings which was good enough for 2.21 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.  Relievers will drive you crazy with their ups and downs which is why I HATE trading for them (see Jorge Lopez, Dylan Floro etc.)

Regardless, Moron hasn't thrown yet this Spring, so I'm very curious to see if he's healthy again.

Moran had TJ. He's rehabbing the entire season.

 

[Kenny Powers]

6 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Moran had TJ. He's rehabbing the entire season.

 

Ahhh.  I'm a bad fan.  I did not know that.  Probably explains how they were able to get him off roster and through waivers last year.  Thank you for that info.

[TwinsDr2021]

I kind of think it is a stretch to call him a prospect. I mean his age 25 season was not very good (it was probably great for him to be AAA and the majors) performance wise. With that said former starters generally don't become good relief pitchers until about this age or even a bit later, because they were starting prior to that. I think he can be a pretty good relief pitcher for many years going forward, but I don't really need to see him continue to be a starter going forward and if we do things probably have gone horribly wrong.

[ashbury]

He's 26 years old, and a year from now has a good chance of being 27.

Time to start mystifying the AAA batters, and dominating the lefties he faces.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah. Ober is the biggest starting pitcher development success story in recent years. Berrios was the previous. I was hoping for Winder, but the shoulder pretty much wiped his rotation projection out.

Isn't Ober the only success from a pure development stand point for this FO? They have done well in other areas with starters but not drafting them. (Varland has a chance, and at this point I think SWR would count as a internal development starting pitcher)

[stringer bell]

Back to Headrick--starter or reliever? The OP says he will be starting at St. Paul, which makes sense to me. First of all, as is being covered on other threads, starters make more money. Secondly, the Twins have a dearth of left handed starters. Third, he has at least three pitches, so he does have a starter profile. I would guess the path to the big leagues might go through the bullpen, but he would be on the edge of the roster if he was recalled this year. 

As to a comparison with Ober, Headrick is a big guy (6'6") as well. He might have some of the "tall guy" advantages that Ober has utilized. In watching Headrick, he threw mostly low leverage innings where throwing it over and eventually getting the game over were priorities. In those appearances, he had some interludes where he looked outstanding. Perhaps he has some repeatability issues, but I see something pretty good.

With the starting rotation in St. Paul likely to produce starts for the major league team, if Headrick can get to the "head of the class" and be the first one up (after Varland) for starts. The fallback for all of this would be a chance to contribute as a bullpen piece, perhaps working multiple innings. 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Isn't Ober the only success from a pure development stand point for this FO? They have done well in other areas with starters but not drafting them. (Varland has a chance, and at this point I think SWR would count as a internal development starting pitcher)

In the Falvey era, the Twins top picks have generally been position players - Lewis, Larnach, Lee being prominent examples. One pitcher who was a first round pick, Petty, was traded for two years of Gray (fine by me). Reya was taken in the fourth round in 2020, and he still has a shot. Like it or not, the Twins seem relatively risk averse to starting pitching at the top of the draft and prefer to trade for it.

[Dman]

I had to be the high man on Headrick to start the season last year (I had him top 10 in my top 20).  He came out and had 2.45 ERA for the Twins into June and shortly thereafter gave up more runs (5) in one inning than he had the previous 10 innings. It seemed by mid June on, he just wasn't the same pitcher.  I remember a game late in the season where they brought him into a blowout and he couldn't find the strike zone and ended up with the bases loaded.  He looked like shell of himself from early in the season.

I do hope that a new pitch can help with his HR problem as he has shown signs of being a solid 5th starter, but like most on this site given what I have seen to this point he looks like a better bet to be in relief or long relief.  He has a big rugged frame so it feels like he could be a durable starter.  He just needs to find the right mix to get guys out.

This will be a big year for him.  40 man spots are always short in short supply so he will need to show something to stay on there.

[DocBauer]

It feels a bit awkward to debate the future of someone like Headrick when you are reminded of how little he's really pitched, but how far he's come in such a short time. I mean, drafted in 2019 and got 3.2 IP once he signed and didn't throw again in  competition until 2021. In 2022 he pitched less than half a season at AA before being added to the 40 man. And then he jumped to the Twins after only a couple of weeks of AAA introduction with his first appearance coming April 19th. So we can have the old debate again about age vs experience. 26 isn't exactly old, and he's really only got 3yrs of experience coming in to the 2024 season.

I remember liking a lot of what I saw in ST last season. He looked like he belonged. His first 4 appearances for the Twins in 2023...covering some time in April and June... provided 10.2 IP and 14K's and a solid ERA. Then he had a horrible game against Boston where he got nailed for 5 runs in a single inning. His remaining 9 appearances were a mixed bag of usually 1 or 2 IP and a couple good appearances, and a couple bad appearances. Overall, he was uneven to be sure. But he hits per, as a rookie, weren't awful. And the K% of 10.5 is quite good. His peripherals at St Paul weren't  bad at all, except for the HR numbers.

Without that true 3rd offering, I still see him in the bullpen. And he seems to have the stuff to do well there given time to adjust. He and Funderburk and Moran...when healthy again...could all be important pieces of future pens from the left side, and there's nothing wrong with that. But  I also believe you don't take someone out of the rotation too soon. And after not even a half season of AA ball he was in  the majors and AAA and bouncing back and forth at different times during the year. He definitely deserves an opportunity to work on that 3rd pitch and stay in the rotation for now to see what his ceiling there might be. And he's going to be up again at some point in various roles to help the Twins this year almost assuredly. But there's some really good arms coming up right behind him that might move him to the pen full  time by 2025 if he doesn't take a fairly significant step forward in 2024.

[Rosterman]

He is still in the prospect list as a starter. The Twins are at least hoping he can be a multi-inning bullpen guy, able to face batters from both sides of the plate. If he can do that, he has a home in the majors, even if NOT as a starter. AT worse, he becomes a situational lefthander and enjoys a long career.

[Shaitan]

3 hours ago, Rosterman said:

He is still in the prospect list as a starter. The Twins are at least hoping he can be a multi-inning bullpen guy, able to face batters from both sides of the plate. If he can do that, he has a home in the majors, even if NOT as a starter. AT worse, he becomes a situational lefthander and enjoys a long career.

At present I think that's exactly his role: multi-inning eater, AAAA shuttle for when the bullpen is gassed.

It's not a glamorous role, but it gives him a foot in the door if he can impress.

[MinnInPa]

23 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Ober is probably the best one of late, right? 

i like Ober...he is still progressing

[bean5302]

22 hours ago, arby58 said:

In the Falvey era, the Twins top picks have generally been position players - Lewis, Larnach, Lee being prominent examples. One pitcher who was a first round pick, Petty, was traded for two years of Gray (fine by me). Reya was taken in the fourth round in 2020, and he still has a shot. Like it or not, the Twins seem relatively risk averse to starting pitching at the top of the draft and prefer to trade for it.

Chase Petty, Landon Leach, Blayne Enlow, Cade Povich, Steve Hajjar, Connor Prielipp, Matt Canterino. Those are all pretty high draft picks by this front office. Plenty of trade acquisitions, too. Of course most of the Twins draft choices have been traded to sustain the rotation over the past few years, a few have flopped, but only Petty looks like a sure thing (for the Reds) with Canterino possibly working out for the Twins.

To be blunt, my perspective is this front office has been far below average at developing starting pitching.