In a Crowded Twins Pitching Picture, Don't Overlook This Southpaw Prospect

Could he develop into the quality LH starter the Twins have been missing for the last few years, or he going to be another bullpen guy?

Assume it is '10 batters per nine innings' because it would be practically impossible to strike out 10 batters per inning. I'll admit to thinking Headrick was in a bit over his head last year. Maybe a third pitch will improve his chances.

I'll admit, I overlook him as a prospect/option for the pitching staff. But he has a decent fastball, decent command, and he is left handed and breathing. Hopefully he takes some strides with adding a splitter, and with that can take a step forward.

I don't consider Headrick more than MiLB roster filler. A 1.30 WHIP and mid 4's ERA doesn't project well to the MLB level. I wouldn't bat an eye if the Twins DFA'd him.

28 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Ober is probably the best one of late, right? 

Yeah. Ober is the biggest starting pitcher development success story in recent years. Berrios was the previous. I was hoping for Winder, but the shoulder pretty much wiped his rotation projection out.

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Headrick threw 27 innings in the bigs - he was just OK at best. The new splitter & having command of it would be a big dea!. I can see him getting 4-5 spots starts in the Show this year………won’t be disappointed if he outshines anyone on this list……Ober gets guys out with a similar fastball MPH.

Ober has the advantage of being 6'9", so he delivers the ball from a fairly unique angle and has a release point closer to the batter, which 'speeds up' his fastball in comparison to Headrick or most other pitchers.

42 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

But the guy I'm really curious to see pitch this spring is Jovani Moran.  He played himself off the roster last year.  But he's still only 26 and really looked like a good left handed arm until he had a down year last season.  If he's healthy, I'd expect him to make his way back on the roster at some point.

Only if he can improve his control - a relief pitcher with 52 BB in 91 innings is not going to cut it.

3 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

Agreed.  Still...the season prior he had 18 walks in 40 innings which was good enough for 2.21 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.  Relievers will drive you crazy with their ups and downs which is why I HATE trading for them (see Jorge Lopez, Dylan Floro etc.)

Regardless, Moron hasn't thrown yet this Spring, so I'm very curious to see if he's healthy again.

Moran had TJ. He's rehabbing the entire season.

He's 26 years old, and a year from now has a good chance of being 27.

Time to start mystifying the AAA batters, and dominating the lefties he faces.

Back to Headrick--starter or reliever? The OP says he will be starting at St. Paul, which makes sense to me. First of all, as is being covered on other threads, starters make more money. Secondly, the Twins have a dearth of left handed starters. Third, he has at least three pitches, so he does have a starter profile. I would guess the path to the big leagues might go through the bullpen, but he would be on the edge of the roster if he was recalled this year. 

As to a comparison with Ober, Headrick is a big guy (6'6") as well. He might have some of the "tall guy" advantages that Ober has utilized. In watching Headrick, he threw mostly low leverage innings where throwing it over and eventually getting the game over were priorities. In those appearances, he had some interludes where he looked outstanding. Perhaps he has some repeatability issues, but I see something pretty good.

With the starting rotation in St. Paul likely to produce starts for the major league team, if Headrick can get to the "head of the class" and be the first one up (after Varland) for starts. The fallback for all of this would be a chance to contribute as a bullpen piece, perhaps working multiple innings. 

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Isn't Ober the only success from a pure development stand point for this FO? They have done well in other areas with starters but not drafting them. (Varland has a chance, and at this point I think SWR would count as a internal development starting pitcher)

In the Falvey era, the Twins top picks have generally been position players - Lewis, Larnach, Lee being prominent examples. One pitcher who was a first round pick, Petty, was traded for two years of Gray (fine by me). Reya was taken in the fourth round in 2020, and he still has a shot. Like it or not, the Twins seem relatively risk averse to starting pitching at the top of the draft and prefer to trade for it.

I had to be the high man on Headrick to start the season last year (I had him top 10 in my top 20).  He came out and had 2.45 ERA for the Twins into June and shortly thereafter gave up more runs (5) in one inning than he had the previous 10 innings. It seemed by mid June on, he just wasn't the same pitcher.  I remember a game late in the season where they brought him into a blowout and he couldn't find the strike zone and ended up with the bases loaded.  He looked like shell of himself from early in the season.

I do hope that a new pitch can help with his HR problem as he has shown signs of being a solid 5th starter, but like most on this site given what I have seen to this point he looks like a better bet to be in relief or long relief.  He has a big rugged frame so it feels like he could be a durable starter.  He just needs to find the right mix to get guys out.

This will be a big year for him.  40 man spots are always short in short supply so he will need to show something to stay on there.

22 hours ago, arby58 said:

In the Falvey era, the Twins top picks have generally been position players - Lewis, Larnach, Lee being prominent examples. One pitcher who was a first round pick, Petty, was traded for two years of Gray (fine by me). Reya was taken in the fourth round in 2020, and he still has a shot. Like it or not, the Twins seem relatively risk averse to starting pitching at the top of the draft and prefer to trade for it.

Chase Petty, Landon Leach, Blayne Enlow, Cade Povich, Steve Hajjar, Connor Prielipp, Matt Canterino. Those are all pretty high draft picks by this front office. Plenty of trade acquisitions, too. Of course most of the Twins draft choices have been traded to sustain the rotation over the past few years, a few have flopped, but only Petty looks like a sure thing (for the Reds) with Canterino possibly working out for the Twins.

To be blunt, my perspective is this front office has been far below average at developing starting pitching.