Minnesota Twins Acquire Outfielder Manuel Margot from Dodgers in 3-Player Trade

[darin617]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Boy, you don't look at the news for one day and the Twins make a trade! 

There are plenty of things to like about this deal.  Here is how I see the various factions of it. 

#1.  The straight up trade of Miller for Doncon is probably OK in and of itself.  Doncon is younger with more offensive upside.  Miller may have an MLB glove but right now his bat is nowhere to be found.  That may change, but it hasn't happened yet.  Besides that, we don't need a SS for awhile, so having a younger prospect is more useful/valuable to us than having one closer to the majors. 

#2. Margot is a decent 4th outfielder.  He's not someone to get excessively excited about.  Definitely a step above Garlick, Cave, etc., but a good insurance policy that can play all three OF positions and hit enough to keep a job. 

#3. Prospect Blocking.  Margo blocks Martin in the same way that DeSclafani blocks Varland.  If we give Martin the job, we have no backup plan at AAA with upside.  In the same way that there is value in having Varland in AAA, there is value in having Martin there.  DeSclafani is the fifth starter because it allows them to keep both him and Varland (who will be at AAA).  If Varland is the fifth starter they have nothing to do with DeSclafani. 

#4. Player Development. This move tells me that they weren't ready to give Martin a job and want him to have some additional healthy time in AAA.  They don't want him playing twice a week coming off the bench for the Twins, but would rather he played nearly everyday in St. Paul.  This is true if they see him as a future important piece or if they want to trade him midseason.  IF he's ripping it up in St. Paul, his trade value could go up a lot.

#5.  Setting the floor.  We've seen this move a lot of times.  Margot's floor is higher (or more consistent) than Martin's.  Even though Martin's ceiling is higher, he is less of a sure thing. 

#5.  Midseason moves.  Santana, DeSclafani, and Margot are easy trade-aways at the deadline IF you no longer need them and could be filler for a more substantial trade move for a starting pitcher. 

Your mileage may vary, but I think it's a decent move. 

2. If Buxton goes down again I don't have faith in Margot taking over like MAT did last year. It would be interesting to know the last offer MAT turned down from the Twins, if they even made him an offer this offseason.

[arby58]

6 minutes ago, JYTwinsFan said:

Reading a lot of the comments on this trade, I'm a little surprised by the reaction. A lot of people are overthinking this and reading too much into it.

1) The Twins just signed a right handed 4th outfielder for $4mm. That was gonna happen one way or the other. None of the signings were going to be exciting, All of the options were gonna be in that range if the Twins were to get them. The upside here is that he can play center, which not all of the options out there could. So...plus.

2) They traded a mid 20s ranked prospect for a different kind of mid 20s ranked prospect. Both are young enough and unproven enough that anything could happen. The upside here is that he fits the organizational need better and he's younger so his rep is less set in stone whereas Miller's is starting to develop (all glove, no bat). So...plus.

Ready to move on and play ball.

Yeah, that was pretty much ESPN's reading - they graded the trade a B for Minnesota and a B for Dodgers - when combined with their signing of Enrique Hernandez. Their reading of the minor leaguers: "F'or now, we can consider the prospect part of this a wash, and we'll see if we hear anything from these guys in a couple of years."

[Johnny Ringo]

I have always been a FO neutralist but this trade is completely a head scratcher. Margot is fine but he has the same skill set and price tag more or less as plenty of RH free agent outfielders who don't cost you Noah Miller. 

It is like giving away a lottery ticket where you have six out of seven numbers right and the last number hasn't yet been revealed.   

You may ultimately discard it as worthless but option theory tells you that you are a fool to do so prematurely.

[arby58]

4 minutes ago, Johnny Ringo said:

I have always been a FO neutralist but this trade is completely a head scratcher. Margot is fine but he has the same skill set and price tag more or less as plenty of RH free agent outfielders who don't cost you Noah Miller. 

It is like giving away a lottery ticket where you have six out of seven numbers right and the last number hasn't yet been revealed.   

You may ultimately discard it as worthless but option theory tells you that you are a fool to do so prematurely.

Except they got a 'lottery ticket' in return with a similar minor league grading by several of the minor league graders.

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

No point in considering Kike’s fate as a Twin or anywhere, he won’t help anyone. 75 & 74 OPS+ the past 2 seasons.

He hasn't really hit since 2018 actually. He wouldn't be my first choice for that last spot with the Twins. However, he has career .801 against lefties and the Dodgers are a platooning team. and perhaps most importantly...  The Dodgers keep bringing him back. After the trade from the Red Sox last year... This is what Dave Roberts said:

“I still stand by, he’s one of the most talented baseball players I’ve been around,”

 

[Fatbat]

Great trade! Got a guy and it isn’t another gallo. Got a prospect and cash….. all for a prospect with upside but not one of our highest potential prospects. The ‘24 team got better today. 
 

[arby58]

7 hours ago, CRF said:

I'm ok with this deal. Don't we need to lose someone off the roster now? Who's that gonna be? 

Good question! My guess would be Weiss.

[ashbury]

6 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Good question! My guess would be Weiss.

I think they already announced that Winder goes on the 60-day.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

We didn't need Margot!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Miller was our future SS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! How stupid can this FO be!!!!!!!!!!

BTW the goal of the offseason is to go forward now & in the future not go backward. I had given this FO an F- so far we haven't fill any real needs, they just backfilled positions that were already filled in-house & gave away players who were real assets to the team. 

Miller was an elite SS, that had promise as a good hitter. But because he wasn't a slugger, he's nothing? I've had it with this FO, He'd be miles ahead if he had done nothing. It's like '21 but worse.

Dodger knows a lot about players. this FO knows nothing

Noah Miller has hit .220/.326/.318 so far. Please be realistic. 

[arby58]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't see many people screaming about the prospect they gave up....more about the guy they got......

The MLB player isn't a throw in, he blocks younger guys. He's on the roster.

Which 'younger guys' does this block? Certainly not Larnach, because he can't play CF. For that matter, Larnach is 27 and the 'old guy' blocking him is 29. Martin? He's barely played at the AAA level so far and while he is making progress, he doesn't look MLB ready yet. Margot is a proven major leaguer. When you're wanting to compete for a title, you want guys like that around - like Solano last year.

[Shaitan]

7 hours ago, wabene said:

So the contender is giving this guy plate appearances?

He has a career 119 OPS+against leftys, but still not exciting.

Edit; the 80 OPS+ referenced above is last year.

Tampa and the Dodgers are also contenders. So, yes, it does seem that contenders are interested in him.

[arby58]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The games they play in April and May count just as much as the ones in September.

I'd rather cycle through the highest ceiling guys on the major league roster first than turn to the 'veteran depth' if all else fails. You can always sign similarly unattractive guys like Jake Cave, Kyle Garlick or Andrew Stevenson to a MiLB deal and stash them away. Putting the 'depth' on the MLB roster doesn't afford you the same opportunity.

Maybe some balance here? Margot has career WAR of 12.2, and even last year, a down year, it was 0.6.

Jake Cave last year had a WAR of -0.1 and has a career WAR of 2.1. Garlick had a WAR last year of -0.1 and a career WAR of 0.0. Stevenson last year had a WAR of 0.1 and a career WAR of 0.4. If you were a GM and choosing these retreads over Margot, you'd be committing professional malpractice.

[Shaitan]

15 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Which 'younger guys' does this block? Certainly not Larnach, because he can't play CF. For that matter, Larnach is 27 and the 'old guy' blocking him is 29. Martin? He's barely played at the AAA level so far and while he is making progress, he doesn't look MLB ready yet. Margot is a proven major leaguer. When you're wanting to compete for a title, you want guys like that around - like Solano last year.

You might want to go back and read how people responded to the Solano signing.

[Shaitan]

Y'all act like the roster is set in stone on Feb. 2.6

You know there will be like 75 IL moves in the next 6 months, right? Nobody's career path is blocked.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, SotaSports said:

I haven't seen anyone talk about the fact that this trade was made a week after the start of spring training. It seems to me that they watched Martin get in some OF reps and decided they needed better insurance.

Same might be speculated about the Dodgers and Manuel Margot, though. 

[beckmt]

1. Martin has not played that much CF yet, so we don't know if he can handle it full time.

2. We have no great backup plan if Wallner regresses this year.  Margot can at least contribute to that if needed.

3. If more than 1 outfielder failed this season Twins would be looking for replacements, and that might not work.  I like the roster as constructed and having a number of players who can contribute in St. Paul is not a bad thing. 

4.  One of the biggest Twins failings last year was not being able to advance baserunners with 0 and 1 out, Margot should be able to help there. 

5.  When Martin, Lee, and etc are ready they will create spots for them.  Most of them need more seasoning, and early returns seem to show Lee is the closest. 

[arby58]

4 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

You might want to go back and read how people responded to the Solano signing.

I remember - part of why I used him as an example. For that matter, Kepler was 'blocking' talent last year too, according to lots of the GMs on this forum.

[arby58]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Same might be said about the Dodgers and Manuel Margot, though. 

The Dodgers preferred Hernandez - and some of the commentary (such as on ESPN) is the Dodgers believe Hernandez gives them more positional flexibility. The Twins already have a 'swiss army knife' in Castro, but a veteran outfielder who can play all three positions is what the Twins needed. Both teams got what they needed - the Dodgers freed up the $4 million to keep them from going even deeper into luxury tax hades, and the Twins got a proven right-handed outfielder who can play all three positions. 

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The Dodgers preferred Hernandez - and some of the commentary (such as on ESPN) is the Dodgers believe Hernandez gives them more positional flexibility. The Twins already have a 'swiss army knife' in Castro, but a veteran outfielder who can play all three positions is what the Twins needed. Both teams got what they needed - the Dodgers freed up the $4 million to keep them from going even deeper into luxury tax hades, and the Twins got a proven right-handed outfielder who can play all three positions. 

That's an alternative explanation, sure.  I was countering speculation about Martin with something I thought similarly plausible.

[arby58]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

We didn't need Margot!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Miller was our future SS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! How stupid can this FO be!!!!!!!!!!

Correa is going to play SS for at least several more years. Miller has three years in the minors and has a career .220 BA and .644 OPS. Love the glove, but the teams that win in the MLB have shortstops who can both field AND hit. Miller is a long way from proving he can do that. It's notable the prospect the Twins got back in the trade currently grades out about the same at the minor league level as Miller.

Meanwhile, the Twins are trying to win now, and they need a right-handed outfielder who can play all three positions - mission accomplished.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Getting Margot is not flashy but he’s a solid, experienced OF from a good organization & he has playoff experience. Pretty decent v. LH pitching.

Can’t sweat every traded young guy! If he had a Gold Glove, the FO knew about it!! The talent evaluators obviously didn’t think his offensive upside was going to come to fruition. Period.

Margot - Vazquez - Santana - Farmer are a good cross section of vets providing depth for the up & coming young nucleus. These 4 with Correa - Kepler - Buxton provide a very stable group for success.

Also, a number of vets in the Pen …….very professional team overall. (Okert - Jackson - Topa - Stewart - Thielbar are all guys in their 30’s)

I really liked this post and it's perspective, as well as your breakdown on Miller and the roster.

Agreed, Margot is not flashy, much less "sexy" but he fits a role to fill a hole...bad poetry not intended, lol. 

I think there is a disconnect at times from fans WANTS vs actual NEEDS. And I'm ALSO one of those fans.

I WANT Wallner, Buxton and Kepler in the OF. I also WANT Helman to get his shot and join Castro as a pair of super utility players who provide a mix of everything at almost every position, though Helman probably has a little more power. And I WANT Martin playing almost daily in LF/CF/2B/DH and hitting .260-.270 with and OB% of about .350-360 with a combined XBH total of about 55 with 25-30 SB at the top of the order with Julien hitting #2 and still setting the table, while also being in an RBI position. And I WANT Larnach to AT LEAST be a solid LH corner bat, DH, and PH finally settling in to a role.

I WANT Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Kirilloff to be the primary INF with Julien playing daily in some combination of 2B/1B/DH. And I WANT Miranda to be healthy and helping at 1B, maybe some 3B, DH, and PH, and be his rookie self again. 

And I feel GREAT about Jeffers and Vazquez at catcher with Camargo sitting in the wings.

But that's 15 guys for 13 spots. Even if we allow ONE GUY always on the IL at any one time, that pushes the roster limit over by one. Even with that caveat, not enough room for everyone, it's still a question of readiness. Funny thing is, that roster just might be the 2nd half of 2024, or even 2025.

WANTING doesn't make it so. And that's where the disconnect happens. 

No matter how much WE and the FO wants Martin to be really good and part of the future, he's got a THIRD of a AAA season. He might need a little more time to settle in as a hitter and mostly full time OF. As excited as we were for Miranda after his breakthrough in 2021 and his really good rookie season in 2022, there are issues with his shoulder. Larnach had improvement at AAA in 2023, but is it enough? I have tremendous belief that Kirilloff's wrist issues are over and done. And his shoulder injury seems to have been minor and he's 100% and ready to go. Personally, I think AK is going to prove to everyone that he IS the top hitter and potential producer and top prospect he's always supposed to have been this year. 

But if we take a step back as fans, what we WANT just doesn't mesh with reality. 

Farmer fills a role for now. Castro fills a role for now, though it could be long term. Vazquez fills a role, and does it well, and MIGHT show some offensive improvement this season. And those are obvious. But Margot, despite not being exciting, actually fills a role for 2024 as well. So does Santana...who I'm not excited about as I'm scared as hell he'll get the Gallo treatment instead of looking for someone else. Maybe the FO has learned their lesson?

Look, I'd be a HUGE apologist if a 38yo Santana suddenly looked like a 32yo Santana. But his signing wasn't silly as a veteran 1B/DH/PH. But if a healthy AK is what he can be, then Santana SHOULD be nothing more than a rotational and PH bat. PERIOD.

BUT he was a pretty smart, cheap, signing to HELP. And he might do so. So might be the unexciting Margot. 

Margot fills a role until he doesn't. If his knee is OK, he's a Taylor substitute for 1yr with equal defense and an even better bat.

Nothing about Santana or Margot is EXCITING. But they are both solid, experienced players who offer up opportunity for solid production and depth for NOW.

Nothing about Taylor or Salono was exciting last year until they were called on and performed adequately, if not above expectations. Santana and Margot are not what I WANT, but I see both as good, solid moves to elevate the floor of the team pending better options to push the ceiling forward. And that ceiling might be pushed as early as June. But I can understand the NEED vs what I WANT to happen NOW. 

[JD-TWINS]

4 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I really liked this post and it's perspective, as well as your breakdown on Miller and the roster.

Agreed, Margot is not flashy, much less "sexy" but he fits a role to fill a hole...bad poetry not intended, lol. 

I think there is a disconnect at times from fans WANTS vs actual NEEDS. And I'm ALSO one of those fans.

I WANT Wallner, Buxton and Kepler in the OF. I also WANT Helman to get his shot and join Castro as a pair of super utility players who provide a mix of everything at almost every position, though Helman probably has a little more power. And I WANT Martin playing almost daily in LF/CF/2B/DH and hitting .260-.270 with and OB% of about .350-360 with a combined XBH total of about 55 with 25-30 SB at the top of the order with Julien hitting #2 and still setting the table, while also being in an RBI position. And I WANT Larnach to AT LEAST be a solid LH corner bat, DH, and PH finally settling in to a role.

I WANT Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Kirilloff to be the primary INF with Julien playing daily in some combination of 2B/1B/DH. And I WANT Miranda to be healthy and helping at 1B, maybe some 3B, DH, and PH, and be his rookie self again. 

And I feel GREAT about Jeffers and Vazquez at catcher with Camargo sitting in the wings.

But that's 15 guys for 13 spots. Even if we allow ONE GUY always on the IL at any one time, that pushes the roster limit over by one. Even with that caveat, not enough room for everyone, it's still a question of readiness. Funny thing is, that roster just might be the 2nd half of 2024, or even 2025.

WANTING doesn't make it so. And that's where the disconnect happens. 

No matter how much WE and the FO wants Martin to be really good and part of the future, he's got a THIRD of a AAA season. He might need a little more time to settle in as a hitter and mostly full time OF. As excited as we were for Miranda after his breakthrough in 2021 and his really good rookie season in 2022, there are issues with his shoulder. Larnach had improvement at AAA in 2023, but is it enough? I have tremendous belief that Kirilloff's wrist issues are over and done. And his shoulder injury seems to have been minor and he's 100% and ready to go. Personally, I think AK is going to prove to everyone that he IS the top hitter and potential producer and top prospect he's always supposed to have been this year. 

But if we take a step back as fans, what we WANT just doesn't mesh with reality. 

Farmer fills a role for now. Castro fills a role for now, though it could be long term. Vazquez fills a role, and does it well, and MIGHT show some offensive improvement this season. And those are obvious. But Margot, despite not being exciting, actually fills a role for 2024 as well. So does Santana...who I'm not excited about as I'm scared as hell he'll get the Gallo treatment instead of looking for someone else. Maybe the FO has learned their lesson?

Look, I'd be a HUGE apologist if a 38yo Santana suddenly looked like a 32yo Santana. But his signing wasn't silly as a veteran 1B/DH/PH. But if a healthy AK is what he can be, then Santana SHOULD be nothing more than a rotational and PH bat. PERIOD.

BUT he was a pretty smart, cheap, signing to HELP. And he might do so. So might be the unexciting Margot. 

Margot fills a role until he doesn't. If his knee is OK, he's a Taylor substitute for 1yr with equal defense and an even better bat.

Nothing about Santana or Margot is EXCITING. But they are both solid, experienced players who offer up opportunity for solid production and depth for NOW.

Nothing about Taylor or Salono was exciting last year until they were called on and performed adequately, if not above expectations. Santana and Margot are not what I WANT, but I see both as good, solid moves to elevate the floor of the team pending better options to push the ceiling forward. And that ceiling might be pushed as early as June. But I can understand the NEED vs what I WANT to happen NOW. 

Well put!

Lee - Miranda - Larnach - Martin NEED to tear up AAA for some period of time…….3 weeks? ………2 months? Something!

If & when they do they’ll see time in the Show. May be July, may be September or may be June of ‘25 but they are coming. In the meantime the smart thing is steady veterans for depth, who may cost more than we’d like or may not have a high ceiling or may not seem special………they have a 90% sure floor and that’s how a team reduces risk & gives themselves a chance to win regularly……..IMO.

[akmanak]

I find this trade simply a money grab if from my understanding they are receiving 5 million. Miller was a good prospect and hopefully this will not bite us. 

 

I never mind trading prospects if we get something equally in return. This was not one of those trades and again shows the inability of Twins management to put together any type of fair trade when unloading prospects. Dodgers imo won this one. 

[RaoulDuke]

I am fine with this, they needed Buxton insurance. 

Seems like a win win trade from both sides, Dodgers turn Margot into Hernandez who can play some infield as well while the Twins get their RH outfielder/ CF backup on the cheap.

I am somewhat surprised there was the extra prospect thrown in, hes no major piece but a big power potential infielder isn't nothing.  Miller is a pretty long shot to be more than a utility guy at his peak so its kind of a wash.

 

 

[Fat Calvin]

10 hours ago, roger said:

As you would guess, Seth, this trade absolutely breaks my heart.  Kind of like when I broke up with the love of my life 60 some years ago when I went off to college.

Got a feeling Twins management are going to be kicking themselves four or five years from now.

You too?  I'm still pining away for mine.  Same scenario--off to college; goodbye high school honey; and I've been heart broken, going on 46 years now.  It's nice to know I'm not the only pathetic soul out there.   But we still got baseball!

[UK Twin]

9 hours ago, GV14218 said:

Actually, given Buxton’s track record of games played, he actually has been acquired for that reason. 

But all the noise coming out of Twins camp is that Buxton is healthy. So Margot is definitely plan B for CF. Obviously Buxton's workload will be managed and the likes of Margot and Castro will see playing time in CF but Margot has not been signed to play CF every day.

[UK Twin]

3 hours ago, akmanak said:

I find this trade simply a money grab if from my understanding they are receiving 5 million. Miller was a good prospect and hopefully this will not bite us. 

 

I never mind trading prospects if we get something equally in return. This was not one of those trades and again shows the inability of Twins management to put together any type of fair trade when unloading prospects. Dodgers imo won this one. 

Really? We're paying only 4mill of Margot's contract, plus we got a prospect who's actually higher rated than Miller in the deal! If that's your idea of losing a trade then I'd love to know your idea of a winning trade!

[UK Twin]

Jeez, reading some of the comments back I'm now unsure if we traded Noah Miller or Brooks Lee in this deal!

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

IMO, really needed to add for CF 1st and then able to play corner OF as needed.

Pham never fit the bill for me. Duvall seemed reasonable at $8-$9M……21 HR in 90+ ballgames last year.

Taylor had to have been stuck on more than one year or on some elevated salary expectation? Would have thought that each party would have pursued each other. Surely, he wanted more than last year’s $4.5M but l am surprised that the two parties couldn’t finalize anything.

If they were not comfortable with Martin yet, it was a pretty sure thing that they would not sign an OFer that could not cover CF.  It also made a lot of sense that they focused on splits against LH pitching.  Margot has better splits than anyone you mentioned.

This is their career OBP and wRC+.    MAT  310 / 99    Duvall  301 / 100     Margot   341 / 109.  

[nclahammer]

I think the Twins could have resigned Michael A. Taylor (who they are very familiar with) for less money and hung onto to Noah Miller, who won a gold glove in Cedar Rapids last season, and whose bat was starting to come around.     Unless Margot is so much better hitting lefties, this one is a head-scratcher to me.