The Twins Should Focus On What Austin Martin Is, Not On What He Isn’t

[Cody Christie]

There is renewed optimism surrounding top prospect Austin Martin this spring, after he performed well at Triple-A in 2023. It’s time for the Twins to let him focus on what makes him a solid prospect and avoid trying to turn him into something he isn’t.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Minnesota Twins fans have focused on Austin Martin’s development since he was traded to the club as part of the José Berríos deal in 2021. At the time, Martin was a consensus top-25 prospect in baseball, after a tremendous college career in which he helped Vanderbilt win the 2019 College World Series. His stock has risen and fallen during his professional career, but the Twins seem high on what he can potentially bring to the club in 2024. His presence might be one of the reasons the team hasn’t felt a need to add another backup center field option.

At this point last season, Martin was dealing with an elbow injury that could have resulted in Tommy John surgery. Luckily, he was able to rehab the injury and return to the field for the season’s second half. In St. Paul, Martin hit .263/.387/.405, with 11 doubles and six home runs across 59 games. It was also the first season in which he didn’t log an inning at shortstop. Instead, the Twins rotated him through multiple positions, including second base, center field, and left field. There was also a change in Martin’s approach, as he matured and realized he had to stick to the strengths that made him successful as an amateur. 

What He Isn’t: Home Run Hitter
Martin was considered the best college hitter in his draft class, but he’s struggled to find consistency since signing. The Twins were already attempting to revamp Martin’s swing and approach within months of trading for him. Minnesota approached him with the idea of making a slight mechanical adjustment that would result in him pulling the ball more regularly. He’s known for his strong eye at the plate, so the team hoped he could focus on certain pitches in the zone and use his athletic ability to catch the ball out front and power it down the line. That approach didn’t work in 2022, as his OPS dropped by over 110 points compared to his professional debut. Martin has never hit double-digit home runs in any season, and his OPS has never topped .796. Evaluators hoped he would gain more power after turning pro, but that’s not part of his skill set. 

What He Isn’t: Shortstop of the Future
Martin has played more defensive innings at shortstop than any other position during his professional career. However, there have been questions about his future defensive home since Toronto drafted him. In college, he played multiple outfield positions and all four infield positions, with most of his starts coming at third base. Fans can get caught up in their initial view of a prospect, even if there is little chance of that player sticking at one defensive position. In 2024, the Twins will have multiple players on the roster who came up as shortstops before moving to other positions, including other former top prospects like Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee. Players can’t be locked into one defensive position to break into the big leagues. 

What He Is: A Player With Elite Contact Skills and Plate Discipline
Martin’s power might not have developed as the team envisioned, but he has continued to show a strong awareness of the strike zone, resulting in high on-base percentages. Martin has minimized strikeouts throughout his professional career, while getting on base nearly 39% of the time. Last season, he posted a 46-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio, with a 13.8% walk rate. Last season, Martin viewed his elbow injury as a blessing in disguise, because he could stay in Fort Myers and work on building confidence around his offensive approach.

“I have confidence in myself," he told our John Bonnes. "So when I can feel like myself, I feel good, and I can just go out there and play the game.”

What He Is: Defensive Flexibility
Martin will continue to play multiple defensive positions, a skill the Twins have wanted more from their top prospects. With the current roster construction, he will likely serve as a backup at multiple positions (left field, center field, second base) if players get hurt. However, this doesn't guarantee him a spot on the Opening Day roster. Minnesota has worked with him on a throwing program in recent years, especially with his elbow issues. So, what is his role for 2024?

“I believe that I’ll still be bouncing around a lot. I mean, it’s just part of my toolbox. And, it’s something that I kind of don’t want to lose,” Martin said. “But I think I’m a great asset to this team. If I can bounce around as much as I can.”

The Twins hope Martin can start showing his long-term potential to the team during the 2024 campaign, and that starts with sticking to what he is as a player. What he is is good enough. 

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What’s Martin’s path to the big-league level this year? Will he make the roster if the team doesn’t add a right-handed bat? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[sweetmusicviola16]

I would like to see the club focus on Martin and not Michael Taylor or Adam Duvall. 

[roger]

Read somewhere yesterday, believe it was the Strib, that Martin will begin spring training mostly playing in the infield.  Went on to say he would get some time in the outfield.

With Lee knocking on the door and no veteran backup for Buxton, would think that playing emphasis should be reversed with him playing mostly in the outfield.  Will see once games begin where he is on the field.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

He will check a nice box in the lineup that is vastly underrepresented right now. That’s a great thing.  Should have a solid BA and OBP with some decent doubles power as well.  He could be a guy that helps the team a great deal.  

[Fred]

I would be happy to see Martin leading off with Julien batting second. Put runners on base for the big hitters to get career high RBI numbers.

[Nashvilletwin]

Several advantages Martin brings to the team vis-a-vis Larnach when thinking about a late inning substitution role are:

a) he bats rightie so he can spell Kepler, Wallner, Julien or Kiriloff (the last three being our weakest “splits” hitters against lefties by far);

b) he doesn’t strike out, has a high on-base, and can get the ball in play (even on an off-speed pitch, lol) - so he has greater value as a pinch hitter;

c) he has speed so he can pinch run too (or is just more valuable on the base paths) and probably has more range in the OF; and

d) he can play multiple positions, including CF, LF, 2B, 3B, and SS. 

Larnach’s only advantages are a bit more power and prior MLB experience.

[nicksaviking]

11 minutes ago, roger said:

Read somewhere yesterday, believe it was the Strib, that Martin will begin spring training mostly playing in the infield.  Went on to say he would get some time in the outfield.

With Lee knocking on the door and no veteran backup for Buxton, would think that playing emphasis should be reversed with him playing mostly in the outfield.  Will see once games begin where he is on the field.

Agreed. And not corner OF, his value will really only come into play if he's able to man center.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, roger said:

Read somewhere yesterday, believe it was the Strib, that Martin will begin spring training mostly playing in the infield.  Went on to say he would get some time in the outfield.

With Lee knocking on the door and no veteran backup for Buxton, would think that playing emphasis should be reversed with him playing mostly in the outfield.  Will see once games begin where he is on the field.

I saw that and wondered what the Twins were thinking as well. Infield repetitions are important early in camp because the players practice their timing, footwork, and cohesion on double plays, cutoffs, and the sort. It is important to have a player work on those skills for a solid week (muscle memory) before games begin. Outfield jumps/reads, communication, and throws (hit the cutoff) are more basic and a player like Martin can fill in with the needed outfield reps after getting down his infield timing. 

I'm a big believer in Martin as a strong and useful utility player. He plays well in numerous positions. I thought he looked really good at second base and in the outfield, but also played well enough to use at any other position. I guess the question about his arm will remain.

The post that likes the idea of Martin batting leadoff with Julien behind him would be sweet. Martin can run, Julien will take pitches, and both take good at bats which is pretty important for any lineup and a real annoyance for pitchers.

[sweetmusicviola16]

11 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

 

I'm a big believer in Martin as a strong and useful utility player. He plays well in numerous positions. I thought he looked really good at second base and in the outfield, but also played well enough to use at any other position. I guess the question about his arm will remain.

Are you in Fort Meyers watching ST?

[Doctor Gast]

Martin's setback has been from trying to make him into something that he isn't, a power-hitting SS. His turnaround came from allowing him to find himself which is extremely valuable. People put a lot of importance on HRs & don't care about anything else. But a lot should be said about being an OB machine that takes that single or BB or HBP & makes it into a double or triple by taking that extra base or stolen base isn't that better than striking out so often?

Martin is athletic and can play 2B or OF but the importance right now is OF so let's focus on that. Why I'm so high on Martin is that he's a winner. He knows how to win in big spots like the '19 College World Series. He has a fire in his belly & he has confidence in himself. So just like I predicted Lewis & Julien would have a big impact on the '23 Twins, I predict that Martin will make a big impact on the '24 Twins when given the opportunity. Just by being himself.

It'll be exciting to see Martin, Buxton & Castro tearing up the base path this season.

[Parfigliano]

Just let him be what he is at the plate a contact, speed, OBP guy.  Nothing wrong with that skill set.  It's one the Twins need.

[Rosterman]

He needs to get comfortable covering ground in centerfield, and also get exposure to playing that position at Target Field. Spring Training will determine if he is the Twins's fourth outfielder. I, sadly, don't see him being a regular in the infield. His place of play will be in the outfield if he wishes to be a regular. Can Buxton stay in center of be foced to a corner. Kepler will be gone in '25. Wallner is still a work that needs progress. So a job is there, even if it means being an all-around utility guy for 2024.

At worse, play him everyday in St. Paul if you grab a Michael Taylor for another one-year contract.

[Fatbat]

49 minutes ago, roger said:

Read somewhere yesterday, believe it was the Strib, that Martin will begin spring training mostly playing in the infield.  Went on to say he would get some time in the outfield.

With Lee knocking on the door and no veteran backup for Buxton, would think that playing emphasis should be reversed with him playing mostly in the outfield.  Will see once games begin where he is on the field.

Castro is the #2 guy in CF so my guess is they want him to get the backup reps. 

[Fatbat]

53 minutes ago, Fred said:

I would be happy to see Martin leading off with Julien batting second. Put runners on base for the big hitters to get career high RBI numbers.

Even batting him 9th sets the team up for some big 3rd/4th innings. 

[Fatbat]

At this point, I would like to see Martin be the 26th guy ahead of Lee and Larnach. The kid is gonna be rock solid and on base all the time! Very excited for Martin in ‘24. 

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Even batting him 9th sets the team up for some big 3rd/4th innings. 

Yeah, I think that's the more likely setup if/when he establishes himself in the bigs. The game is changing and teams are leaning more and more into just getting their best overall hitters at the top of the lineup (Acuna being the most obvious example, with Shohei rumored to be taking over for Betts in the leadoff spot in LA being another). Against righties I'm betting it's Martin 9, Julien 1, then into the Lewis, Correa, Buxton types. A 9 hole hitter with a .380+ OBP and some steals would be really nice in front of the boom those other 4 guys can bring.

[jorgenswest]

Is Nick Madrigal a comp?

[Guest]

Well done.  More than a few players could learn from Martin's plate discipline.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I saw that and wondered what the Twins were thinking as well. Infield repetitions are important early in camp because the players practice their timing, footwork, and cohesion on double plays, cutoffs, and the sort. It is important to have a player work on those skills for a solid week (muscle memory) before games begin. Outfield jumps/reads, communication, and throws (hit the cutoff) are more basic and a player like Martin can fill in with the needed outfield reps after getting down his infield timing. 

I'm a big believer in Martin as a strong and useful utility player. He plays well in numerous positions. I thought he looked really good at second base and in the outfield, but also played well enough to use at any other position. I guess the question about his arm will remain.

The post that likes the idea of Martin batting leadoff with Julien behind him would be sweet. Martin can run, Julien will take pitches, and both take good at bats which is pretty important for any lineup and a real annoyance for pitchers.

Another plausible reason to have him focus on defense is that they are considering trading someone else currently blocking him………maybe Farmer ……..who knows who else? I think it’s doubtful but it makes sense to have Martin focused on IF reps. He could be parallel to Castro in his ability to play CF - LF - 2B ……maybe even 3B.

I think Larnach, with a decent Spring, gets the 13th position player spot out of Spring Training. …………LF - RF - DH for a couple months minimum………....Martin & Lee will be looming & ready no later than June. Just a matter of if they are needed.

Another year of control for either if they don’t come to MLB for a few weeks……I think that still matters??

[chpettit19]

42 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Is Nick Madrigal a comp?

With maybe a little more speed and WAY more walks. But the concern with him has always been that he doesn't impact the ball much better than a Madrigal type. That's really his make or break skill. How hard is he going to hit the ball to give him the chance to really use his eye.

[HerbieFan]

Couldn't agree more.  For an organization that saw enough value in Julien to trade Polanco, they should be able to see enough value in Martins approach as well.  

[Fatbat]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I think that's the more likely setup if/when he establishes himself in the bigs. The game is changing and teams are leaning more and more into just getting their best overall hitters at the top of the lineup (Acuna being the most obvious example, with Shohei rumored to be taking over for Betts in the leadoff spot in LA being another). Against righties I'm betting it's Martin 9, Julien 1, then into the Lewis, Correa, Buxton types. A 9 hole hitter with a .380+ OBP and some steals would be really nice in front of the boom those other 4 guys can bring.

2nd and 3rd time around the batting order, we will have an extra guy on base to score more runs. Martin will be a huge offensive asset. 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Castro is the #2 guy in CF so my guess is they want him to get the backup reps. 

I'd like to see Castro free to move all over the diamond as opposed to being a backup at one position. I think Martin can be the better offensive player and Castro's equal as an outfield defender. Let Willi fill in everywhere and give the regulars a day off. Hopefully Martin shows he's capable in center and left.

[Fatbat]

It seems like our utility guys play everyday because someone always is on a rest day. 

[DocBauer]

Hey, I'm excited about Martin. He finished 2022 strong, had that great AFL, and a solid THIRD of a season for AAA with a really good August. I don't know if he's going to end up, eventually, starting at a single spot, or rotating between 2-4 spots but playing daily, but he's going to be a daily regular, IMO.

But that being said, in his 3yrs of pro ball, his AVG has yet to be above .263, excluding his AFL appearance. He's also shown little power, which the Twins were trying to help with, not necessarily make him a power hitter. Patience and a great eye for a high OB% and low K totals is great! But he has to offer at least SOME threat of power...doubles and the occasional HR...or you get Ben Revere at the best. Which means someone ML pitchers can constantly challenge without much fear. They're not going to walk you if you don't scare them some.

On the positive side, he stroked 7HR in 2023, 18 total XBH, in 282 PA/ 231 AB, so that's a positive sign. He can dangerous with a good OB and speed, but he's a lot more dangerous, and effective, if he can give you 35 Dbls, 5-7 Trpls, and 10-15 HR along with his SB. 

He might be ready. I just think it's OK to pump the brakes a little and say a THIRD of a year at AAA might not have proved he's ready for ML duty just yet.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, HerbieFan said:

Couldn't agree more.  For an organization that saw enough value in Julien to trade Polanco, they should be able to see enough value in Martins approach as well.  

To trade Julien.

[SaberNerd]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Is Nick Madrigal a comp?

Martin walks more, but Madrigal struck out way less in the minors.  His K% were 3-5% in the minors and was 8% last year.  Martin was 17% in AAA.

Neither player has shown a good quality of contact, which limits their average as well as their power.  Madrigal hits .280 for his career even though he strikes out as rarely as Arraez who hits .326

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Another year of control for either if they don’t come to MLB for a few weeks……I think that still matters??

IMO, you don't need to worry about another year of control for a 25 year (in one month) old with a minor league slash line of 256/388/361.

I get that for a 23 year old Lee,

The title of the article is lets focus on what he is and what he is a older decent to good prospect that has a good OBP in the MINORS that comes mostly from walks and not a high BA  like say Arraez (who was much, much younger) and that doesn't play usually play well in the majors . At this point he looks like a 2nd utility type player behind castro and the type of prospect that am OK with being the last man on the roster. I really, really hope he proves me wrong and over the winter figured out to use his bat control for more hitting.

To put some perspective on it of the guys in St. Paul that had over 150 at bats his OPS was 12th (if you up the at bats to 250 it was 8th and barely ahead of Celestino, Contreras) and OBP was 6th (behind Celestino) and barely ahead of the likes of Tony Wolters, Larnach, and Keirsey.

 

EDIT: I will add a lot of these same arguments were being made last year.

 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Is Nick Madrigal a comp?

Madrigal is about 2 years older and going into his 5th major league season (Of course that is on the White who probably have more room on the roster, compared to the Twins) but at the age of 22 played in A+, AA, AAA with a slash of .311/.377/.414 and was in the majors at 23 and slashed .340/.376/.369  so I wouldn't say it is fair to either of these guys to say it is a great comparison.

[jorgenswest]

I wonder about Madrigal because the hit profile looks similar. Madrigal is two years older and further into his career so maybe there is a picture of what the Twins have in Martin.

I appreciate the thoughts.

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

With maybe a little more speed and WAY more walks. But the concern with him has always been that he doesn't impact the ball much better than a Madrigal type. That's really his make or break skill. How hard is he going to hit the ball to give him the chance to really use his eye.

1 hour ago, SaberNerd said:

Martin walks more, but Madrigal struck out way less in the minors.  His K% were 3-5% in the minors and was 8% last year.  Martin was 17% in AAA.

Neither player has shown a good quality of contact, which limits their average as well as their power.  Madrigal hits .280 for his career even though he strikes out as rarely as Arraez who hits .326

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Madrigal is about 2 years older and going into his 5th major league season (Of course that is on the White who probably have more room on the roster, compared to the Twins) but at the age of 22 played in A+, AA, AAA with a slash of .311/.377/.414 and was in the majors at 23 and slashed .340/.376/.369  so I wouldn't say it is fair to either of these guys to say it is a great comparison.

It seems like to have value beyond the bench Martin is going to have to provide more offense than Madrigal has with the Cubs. It really hinges on whether the walk rate can stay high or if major league pitchers will pound the strike zone and let him put it in play. Another hitting comp at least based on their strikeout and walk rates as well as their ISO in AAA last year is Celestino. Martin and Celestino are the same age.