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Posted

Pairing one of the best offensive catchers in baseball with a highly experienced and steady veteran backup, the Twins boast a setup behind the plate that most teams envy. 

Our annual spring roster preview kicks off with a breakdown of Minnesota's outlook behind the plate.

Image courtesy of Erik Williams and Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

I'm a believer that catchers play a vital role in their team's run prevention success – one that is underrated by what current statistics can measure. There are certain aspects of calling a game, building rapport with pitchers, and withstanding the sheer rigor of major-league catching that are hard to quantify, but undoubtedly impactful.

Last year, the Twins used only two catchers all season, and both have strong defensive reputations. This inarguably factored into the success of the pitching staff all year long, and now Minnesota will carry forward some continuity, with the same duo in line to return and split time here in 2024.

TWINS CATCHERS AT A GLANCE

Starter: Ryan Jeffers
Backup: Christian Vázquez
Depth: Jair Camargo, Brian O'Keefe (NRI), Patrick Winkel (NRI)
Prospects: Camargo, Noah Cardenas, Ricardo Olivar

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 9th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 15th out of 30

THE GOOD
Jeffers is coming off a breakthrough season that saw him emerge as arguably the league's biggest offensive threat at his position. His .858 OPS led all MLB catchers with 300 or more plate appearances, as he ranked second among Twins hitters in OBP (.369) and first in slugging (.490). Being able to insert a bat like this at the catcher position provides a massive competitive advantage, which is why Rocco Baldelli started Jeffers in every single playoff game last year. (It's also why Joe Mauer just went into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.)

The breakout season was a change of pace for Jeffers, following back-to-back disappointing campaigns. For the 26-year-old and the organization that so badly wanted to believe in him, this has been a long time coming. 

"I worked really hard to have the year I had last year, but I've still got to turn around and do it again. I don't have any doubts that I will be able to," Jeffers told Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. "It didn't feel like a fluke. It felt like I finally laid the groundwork of who I am as a ballplayer. It felt like it was an extremely repeatable type of season."

The prolific power-hitting performance was rather convincing. Jeffers came through with monster home runs in crucial spots, including an unforgettable eighth-inning go-ahead blast against the Rangers that nearly incited a brawl. He drilled a 10th-inning homer in May that registered as the highest exit velocity by any Twins hitter in the Statcast era. 

Jeffers stepped up and did amazing things in big spots, which is the sign of a star. He also improved on what had been a glaring deficiency in his defensive game, throwing out a career-high 25% of base stealers--in a season in which the league's success rate on steals skyrocketed.

Partnering with Jeffers behind the plate once again is Vázquez, who is entering the second season of a three-year, $30-million deal. In stark contrast to Jeffers, Vázquez provided no thump with the bat last year, slashing .223/.280/.318, for a meager 65 OPS+ that ranked as his worst since 2018. However, the veteran backstop graded out extremely well defensively, enabling him to produce 1.0 fWAR in 102 games.

Even though the price tag might seem rough for a backup catcher, the Twins were wise to hold onto Vázquez for the depth and assurance he provides. Jeffers flashed a big ceiling, but he has a long history of injuries and lapses. Having a seasoned vet like Vázquez available is more than just a luxury.

THE BAD
Ever since Mauer moved to first base a decade ago, catcher has been a volatile position for the Twins, who've struggled to sustain much success there. Part of what made the Hall of Famer so special was his stability and consistency, which are brutally hard to maintain as a catcher. In the post-Mauer era, we've seen flashes – an All-Star first half from Kurt Suzuki, an explosive Bomba Squad contribution from Mitch Garver – but both those faded quickly. Is Jeffers destined for the same, following his own glimpse of greatness? 

He might feel confident his breakout season was "extremely repeatable," but FanGraphs has doubts, projecting Jeffers for 1.8 fWAR this year (down from 2.7) with a 70-point drop-off in wOBA. The 26-year-old has unfortunately earned his status as one of the biggest regression candidates on the team; he slashed just .203/.277/.384 between 2021-22, and last year his strikeout and walk rates remained static while his production was buoyed by a .359 BABIP. Unless he improves his contact rate or discipline, Jeffers will always be susceptible to the kinds of slumps that plagued him in the postseason, wherein he went 2-for-19.

Even if he doesn't replicate his 134 OPS+ from last year (he won't), Jeffers can still be a valuable primary catcher with his power and defense, so long as he's healthy. It will be interesting to see how his fielding metrics grade out, as last year they were quite poor despite his improvements in controlling the run game. The sudden drop-off in framing effectiveness was especially striking. (Pun intended.) This a fine example of why I feel there's a disconnect between catching metrics and reality, because I doubt you'd find anyone with the Twins (or their opponents) who would consider Jeffers anything less than a very good defensive catcher.

jeffersstatcastdefense.png

THE BOTTOM LINE
Given all the extremes involved, I'd expect some regression to the mean across the board: Jeffers will likely be a little worse offensively, a little better defensively. Vázquez will probably experience the reverse. As long as both stay relatively healthy, it's hard to see the catcher position being any kind of real liability for the Twins. 

Their true upside here really depends on Jeffers. If he can find a way to sustain or even improve upon what he did in 2023, the Twins will boast one of the best catching units in baseball. On the flip, if Jeffers misses extended time – as he did in both of the previous two seasons – that upside pretty much evaporates with the step down to Vázquez, and then you're one injury away from reaching into some very untested depth. Their ideal scenario still involves using each player often.

As Mauer prepares for enshrinement in the Hall of Fame, the Twins are hoping Jeffers is ready to solidify his standing (er, squatting?) as the franchise's best two-way catcher since. If he falls short, Minnesota's outlook at this position isn't so hot, with Vázquez turning 34 this year and no clear impact prospects on the way.


Where would you rank the Twins' catcher situation within the AL Central? What about in the league as a whole? What developments do you expect behind the plate this year?


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Posted

I also expect some regression from Jeffers. I think he will fall somewhere between avg. and good. I also expect some improvement from Vazquez. IMO the most important part of catching is the defense. Jeffers has room for improvement there, especially blocking pitches. I'm of the school of thought that says pitch framing is at least somewhat dependent on the ump, which is pretty hard for a catcher to control. Hopefully they can perfect the auto strike zone and bring to MLB soon!

Posted
Quote

I'm a believer that catchers play a vital role in their team's run prevention success – one that is underrated by what current statistics can measure. There are certain aspects of calling a game, building rapport with pitchers, and withstanding the sheer rigor of major-league catching that are hard to quantify, but undoubtedly impactful

.I totally agree with you Nick, that catching defense is extremely important to the team's success. Even with Vazquez, the Twins are projected to be in the middle of the pack. The best decision the Twins made this off-season was to keep Vazquez.

In '20 Jeffers supported Garver & he had a good season. '21 Garver was injured so Jeffers had the bulk of the playing time, Jeffers slumped. In '22 Jeffers was the sole primary catcher with only Sanchez as the safety net, Jeffers crashed & burned. In '23 Jeffers supported primary catcher Vazquez (his safety net), and Jeffers thrived. As Jeffers's playing time & responsibility increased his defense waned. My observation is Jeffers makes a much better backup than the primary catcher. IMO Vazquez's offense will rebound while Jeffers's will regress. IMO Jeffers's defense was stretched to the max last year & can not be sustained. IMO our catching depth is poor & has been neglected

Posted

Jeffers is still young. Just entering his prime so it’s reasonable to expect improvement and growth. He will be catching 120 games so he will have more opportunity than ‘23. A 140 ops+ is not out of the question. Rock solid is how we should look at our top 3 options at C.

Posted

How are Vazquez defensive metrics so much higher than Jeffers? Last year both had similar numbers as far as throwing out runners% Vazquez isn't stealing that many more strikes or blocking that many more balls. Those numbers are way out of whack. And not believable. I watched every game last year and those DEF numbers? No way. 

Posted

Jeffers isn’t Johnny Bench but the expectations for nearly every Twin, other than Correa & Buxton & Vazquez (the bottomed out trio), to go backward seems to be midwesterners (Minnesotans) shooting low to not be embarrassed in the end. Low expectations to not draw attention. (am from MN!)

Specific to catchers on roster…….if Jeffers hits .240 with an OBP of .330 and a slug% of .460, it’s regression but still All Good! Vazquez was embarrassed in the Playoffs after being acquired for his playoff experience & playing zero innings……..he’s been working hard on bat speed and has lost 7-8lbs and is dedicated to bounce back. Fingers crossed.

Line-up OPS+:

130 - 98 - 117 - 150 - 121 - 94 - 139 - 134 - 106

Buxton & Correa are the guys expected to improve in ‘24………..#2 & #6 respectively above. Yet, this team “needs offensive help” because most hitters will regress or fail in ‘24.

Nobody repeats success - nobody improves…….I don’t get it???

Julien - Buxton - Kirilloff - Lewis - Kepler - Correa - Wallner - Jeffers - Castro

Vazquez - Farmer - Satana veterans that play defense & POST & don’t make mistakes…..,that’s bench depth…………FO, working with ownership imposed budget, assembled a really solid team!!

Projected best bullpen in AL!! 3 good starters and another is pretty elite. Will have to piece together the 5th slot with 4-5 capable guys starting with Varland & DeSclafani.

Seems like there should be a bit more optimism - tired of the “we lost Sonny Gray & all is lost”…….

 

Posted
21 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

How are Vazquez defensive metrics so much higher than Jeffers? Last year both had similar numbers as far as throwing out runners% Vazquez isn't stealing that many more strikes or blocking that many more balls. Those numbers are way out of whack. And not believable. I watched every game last year and those DEF numbers? No way. 

Not sure about the percentage of runner's thrown out but remembered an article early in the offseason talking about how a lot of Jeffer's catching def markers dropped last year compared to his norm. In terms of framing looks like Vasquez was 22nd best at 3 runs saved and Jeffers was 51st with -4. a 7 run difference might explain a good chunk of that, especially in a stat that is hard to measure but probably weighted highly for catchers

 

*Edit that was from baseball savant it also has Vazquez at 25th with 0 above/below avg caught stealing and Jeffers at 61st at -5 below avg caught stealing all in all seems like baseball savant saw Vazquez last year as slightly above average and Jeffers as well below avg 

Posted

Baseball Reference lists Jeffers as positive both in Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average and Defensive Runs Above Average, showing that defensive metrics for catchers are all over the place. I couldn't find Catcher ERA, but I recall seeing a post earlier that said that Jeffers in 2023 was better than Vazquez. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, danielp19653 said:

Not sure about the percentage of runner's thrown out but remembered an article early in the offseason talking about how a lot of Jeffer's catching def markers dropped last year compared to his norm. In terms of framing looks like Vasquez was 22nd best at 3 runs saved and Jeffers was 51st with -4. a 7 run difference might explain a good chunk of that, especially in a stat that is hard to measure but probably weighted highly for catchers

 

*Edit that was from baseball savant it also has Vazquez at 25th with 0 above/below avg caught stealing and Jeffers at 61st at -5 below avg caught stealing all in all seems like baseball savant saw Vazquez last year as slightly above average and Jeffers as well below avg 

Just to expand a little, Jeffers lost a lot of value in framing last season compared to prior seasons. This is primarily due to a steep drop in how many calls he got just off the plate on either side. Since they track every pitch location, it's pretty easy to trust these numbers but I wouldn't expect Jeffers to have fallen off in his ability to frame. He should rebound next year. 

His blocking has never been strong, but again it was particularly bad last year. It looks like most of his issues here are actually passed balls, which matches up with my eye test. Pitches that you'd expect a catcher to at least knockdown went all the way to the backstop. I wouldn't expect this to be a strong skill for Jeffers. 

Now his throwing metrics just seem off per Statcast/Savant. They give him a -5 for caught stealing relative to average/expected, but they're also saying he only threw out 5 runners for 14% of attempted steals. This doesn't make sense to me, unless he threw out 8 runners at 1B/3B and they're only tracking stolen base attempts at 2B. 

Worth noting that within the -5 caught stealing above average number includes nearly 2 full CS from poor receiving at 2B (comically Vazquez hurt him the most with this poor tag, Polo's lazy attempt comes in 2nd) and that number doesn't include this whiff of a tag from Julien on a great throw.

Posted

Nick, not sure if this is accessible information, but it would be interesting to know what the fWAR prediction was for ‘23 for our duo.

They finished 9th of 30 in ‘23…….very respectable. This year, for some reason, they are predicted to drop 20% of the slots to 15 of 30. Am assuming there isn’t much difference from 6-25???

Wondering if &/or by how much they overachieved in ‘23? May lead to a better expectation for ‘24.

Posted
3 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Just to expand a little, Jeffers lost a lot of value in framing last season compared to prior seasons. This is primarily due to a steep drop in how many calls he got just off the plate on either side. Since they track every pitch location, it's pretty easy to trust these numbers but I wouldn't expect Jeffers to have fallen off in his ability to frame. He should rebound next year. 

His blocking has never been strong, but again it was particularly bad last year. It looks like most of his issues here are actually passed balls, which matches up with my eye test. Pitches that you'd expect a catcher to at least knockdown went all the way to the backstop. I wouldn't expect this to be a strong skill for Jeffers. 

Now his throwing metrics just seem off per Statcast/Savant. They give him a -5 for caught stealing relative to average/expected, but they're also saying he only threw out 5 runners for 14% of attempted steals. This doesn't make sense to me, unless he threw out 8 runners at 1B/3B and they're only tracking stolen base attempts at 2B. 

Worth noting that within the -5 caught stealing above average number includes nearly 2 full CS from poor receiving at 2B (comically Vazquez hurt him the most with this poor tag, Polo's lazy attempt comes in 2nd) and that number doesn't include this whiff of a tag from Julien on a great throw.

No hate here, just reality, should be an easier job catching without Gray’s slider & curve diving into the dirt off the plate in the Left hander batters box.

Posted
4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

No hate here, just reality, should be an easier job catching without Gray’s slider & curve diving into the dirt off the plate in the Left hander batters box.

Very true. Worth noting his biggest struggle was blocking pitches that came in basically behind a left-handed batter's back foot.

Here's his 2023 blocking numbers/visual that you can compare to Vazquez.

Posted

Anecdotally, here are my thoughts/memories on Jeffers' 2023 defense: 1) Throwing/stolen bases: Jeffers was about league average 13/53 and considering that bases are easier to steal off right handed pitchers and that right handers logged well over 90% of the innings for the team in 2023, I think that number is respectable. 2) I remember Bremer bragging that Jeffers had blocked 100% of expected low pitches sometime during mid-season and he promptly let a low pitch go to the backstop. Overall, I thought RJ was okay blocking low pitches, but he seemed to slip a little as the season wore on. 3) I mentioned in an earlier post that I recalled Jeffers having a good "Catcher's ERA" (better than Vazquez), but I can't find that stat right now, (if someone would enlighten us that would be great). 4) Also mentioned earlier, the various sources are all over the board on defense, not only for Jeffers, but Carlos Santana and many others. I think catchers are probably the hardest to judge with much of their rating depending on an umpire's judgement or how much working well with a pitcher (calling a good game) matters and how much is the catcher. 

I thought Jeffers was more than acceptable defensively in 2023. He may have worn down a bit at the end of the season, but his hitting was so far superior to Vázquez that it was proper that he start all the post season games. 

Posted

Will Jeffers be the primary catcher this year? 

What does primary mean in regards to the catcher position? 

Last year both catchers were healthy (as far as the public knows) for the entire year. 

Last year Jeffers out hit Vazquez by a significant margin. It wasn't even close. Jeffers had the 2nd highest OPS amongst catchers over 100 AB's with .859. Ryan Jeffers out hit the already fitted for Cooperstown Adley Rutschman with .809. Jeffers and Rutschman had almost identical BA and OBP but Jeffers out slugged him by a good distance. 

Vazquez ranked 39th in OPS amongst catchers over 100 AB's with a .598.    

Yet for some reason... with the best hitting catcher in baseball based on actual OPS performance in 2023. Vazquez caught more games and Vazquez made more trips to the plate in 2023.

I understand that Vazquez started the season as the primary catcher with a 2 to 1 ratio but that ratio never adjusted to 2 to 1 in Jeffers favor regardless of the offensive distance between the two. Now it can be argued that Vazquez is the better defensive catcher and using the importance of defense at that position can be used to justify Vazquez getting more playing time. However... if defense is important to justify playing time at the catcher position... Why was Jeffers chosen to catch every single game in the playoffs?   

Catchers typically require rest and Catchers typically require time on the disabled list. JT Realmuto led MLB in games caught with 133 with a couple of pinch hits for 135 games. 125 positions players played in 135 games or more at other postions.  

Only 5 MLB catchers qualified for the batting title last year (502 AB's) but those catchers got there by including DH work to their resume.  

William Contreras C - 108 DH - 33

Adley Rutschman C - 110 DH - 46

Cal Raleigh C - 128 DH - 15

Keibert Ruiz C - 117  DH - 16

Salvador Perez C - 91 DH - 29 1B - 23

---------------------------------------------------

Ryan Jeffers C-82 DH - 9

Catchers are over valued consistently. We had the best hitter at the position last year and he didn't out catch the other guy making 10 million. 

OK... Jeffers is the primary... He should be but in the context of the Twins... What does that mean? 

 

  

Posted

Easily the biggest benefit of the Twins catching situation last year was the fact that it was super consistent.  As has been written many times, two guys did all the work, which is unheard of.  Add the fact that they are both good to excellent defensively and that is an incredibly nice foundation upon which to build a pitching staff.  The potential emergence of Camargo as a minor league option/emergency big league catcher only adds to their positive situation for this year.  @Nick Nelson, you are right.  Their position is pretty enviable across the league at the catcher spot.  

Posted
11 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Will Jeffers be the primary catcher this year? 

What does primary mean in regards to the catcher position? 

Last year both catchers were healthy (as far as the public knows) for the entire year. 

Last year Jeffers out hit Vazquez by a significant margin. It wasn't even close. Jeffers had the 2nd highest OPS amongst catchers over 100 AB's with .859. Ryan Jeffers out hit the already fitted for Cooperstown Adley Rutschman with .809. Jeffers and Rutschman had almost identical BA and OBP but Jeffers out slugged him by a good distance. 

Vazquez ranked 39th in OPS amongst catchers over 100 AB's with a .598.    

Yet for some reason... with the best hitting catcher in baseball based on actual OPS performance in 2023. Vazquez caught more games and Vazquez made more trips to the plate in 2023.

I understand that Vazquez started the season as the primary catcher with a 2 to 1 ratio but that ratio never adjusted to 2 to 1 in Jeffers favor regardless of the offensive distance between the two. Now it can be argued that Vazquez is the better defensive catcher and using the importance of defense at that position can be used to justify Vazquez getting more playing time. However... if defense is important to justify playing time at the catcher position... Why was Jeffers chosen to catch every single game in the playoffs?   

Catchers typically require rest and Catchers typically require time on the disabled list. JT Realmuto led MLB in games caught with 133 with a couple of pinch hits for 135 games. 125 positions players played in 135 games or more at other postions.  

Only 5 MLB catchers qualified for the batting title last year (502 AB's) but those catchers got there by including DH work to their resume.  

William Contreras C - 108 DH - 33

Adley Rutschman C - 110 DH - 46

Cal Raleigh C - 128 DH - 15

Keibert Ruiz C - 117  DH - 16

Salvador Perez C - 91 DH - 29 1B - 23

---------------------------------------------------

Ryan Jeffers C-82 DH - 9

Catchers are over valued consistently. We had the best hitter at the position last year and he didn't out catch the other guy making 10 million. 

OK... Jeffers is the primary... He should be but in the context of the Twins... What does that mean? 

 

  

I think "regular catcher" in Rocco's book is no more than 100 games behind the plate. If Jeffers hits like he did last year the first quarter of the season we might see him DH a bit more. It would be a huge surprise if both catchers avoid the IL this year. My best guess as to distribution of starts is 90-60-12 with the equal chance that Jeffers or Vázquez gets injured, and it is probably both.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The potential emergence of Camargo as a minor league option/emergency big league catcher only adds to their positive situation for this year.  @Nick Nelson, you are right.  Their position is pretty enviable across the league at the catcher spot.  

I expect Camargo gets his first MLB action this year, but I'm far from convinced that he's more than a warm body to back up either of the two guys in front of him. Everybody hit with power in Triple A and I don't know if he is anything special defensively. 

Posted

In short,  I am comfortable with the Twins catcher situation.  If both guys stay relatively healthy, I think we are in pretty decent shape.

Posted
33 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think "regular catcher" in Rocco's book is no more than 100 games behind the plate. If Jeffers hits like he did last year the first quarter of the season we might see him DH a bit more. It would be a huge surprise if both catchers avoid the IL this year. My best guess as to distribution of starts is 90-60-12 with the equal chance that Jeffers or Vázquez gets injured, and it is probably both.

You are probably in the ballpark. 

I really don't have a problem with regular rest at the catching position for maintenance. Ideally... you want your best catcher available for the playoffs and rest during the regular season should increase those odds... however... the distribution does need to reflect performance. 

If Jeffers is the guy that they started every game in the playoffs... that illustrates the importance of Jeffers over Vazquez. Jeffers should have played more than Vazquez did during the regular season.  

This year... I actually hope we are able to give Camargo a significant run. At the catcher position... I want the development pipeline to chug along and opportunity is necessary for development. 

Posted
54 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

 2) I remember Bremer bragging that Jeffers had blocked 100% of expected low pitches sometime during mid-season and he promptly let a low pitch go to the backstop.

The Bremer Curse; it seemed as soon as Bremer bragged a player for any thing, that thing went South.

Posted

Was never a fan of Jeffers because I value D.  Kept hearing that his pitch framing was great, yada, yada, yada.  Truth is as Hawkins said one day a catcher framing well and getting a ball called a strike is merely bad umpiring.

Must give the kid credit as it appeared to my eyes that his defense improved.  Seemed to me that he didn't allow as many passed balls as in his early years.  Never thought of him as being good at controlling the running game, just didn't seem as noticeable last year.

Expect Vazquez can't be as bad at the plate this year and wouldn't be surprised if Jeffers hitting numbers decline a bit.  Give zero value to Fangraphics and all those projections most of you live by.  Personally, like to wait and see how they do when playing the games.

What I would have liked to see in this piece, Nick, is a little more information about Camargo.  Expect the chances of the Twins getting through 2024 using only two catchers is slim, at best.  I know he has been around for awhile and hit some four baggers at St. Paul.  But how is his defense?   

Posted
2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

.

Seems like there should be a bit more optimism - tired of the “we lost Sonny Gray & all is lost”…….

 

I believe that combined Jeffers and Vazquez will be about the same as last year (or better).  I agree with all of your other points, especially the comment  “we lost Sonny Gray & all is lost”.  The Twins record when Sonny pitched was 14-18, 6 times Sonny left with the lead but there was a blown save (Twins came back to win 2 of the 6).  The run support for Sonny was awful 3.7 runs per game.  In four of his games the Twins scored 35 runs, in the other 28 they scored 84 (3 runs per game with 18 games being 3 runs or less).  In my opinion the Twins will have a better BP and will score more runs than last year.

As a point of reference San Francisco was 9-9 in DeSclafana's 18 starts last year with only one BS and 4.6 runs support per game,  It is very possible DS or whoever is the 5th starter could match the 14-18 record.  The postseason is another story, we could trade for an arm at the deadline, but our record in these trades is awful.   JMHO GLTA

 

Posted

Big fan of this combination. I expect Jeffers to be about ten percent worse, and Vazquez to be much better.... So a little better overall than last year. I hope Jeffers starts about ten or twenty more games than last year....

Posted

I would aim for 90-95 games started while arranging the rotation where he is able the DH against left handed pitchers another 20 or so games. He will need to hit like last year to earn those DH opportunities.

Posted
4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

.I totally agree with you Nick, that catching defense is extremely important to the team's success. Even with Vazquez, the Twins are projected to be in the middle of the pack. The best decision the Twins made this off-season was to keep Vazquez.

In '20 Jeffers supported Garver & he had a good season. '21 Garver was injured so Jeffers had the bulk of the playing time, Jeffers slumped. In '22 Jeffers was the sole primary catcher with only Sanchez as the safety net, Jeffers crashed & burned. In '23 Jeffers supported primary catcher Vazquez (his safety net), and Jeffers thrived. As Jeffers's playing time & responsibility increased his defense waned. My observation is Jeffers makes a much better backup than the primary catcher. IMO Vazquez's offense will rebound while Jeffers's will regress. IMO Jeffers's defense was stretched to the max last year & can not be sustained. IMO our catching depth is poor & has been neglected

Sanchez was the primary catcher in 2022; from his stats it was his first year of improved defense over past years.

Posted

The most important part of being a quality catcher is how he calls a game and his relationship with the staff. Hard to measure those things. And has been pointed out in various other posts, one site will tell you one thing and another site will tell you something else.

I'm with Stringer bell that I have also heard/read something about ERA when Jeffers caught. Personally, I've never had a problem with anything in Jeffers defense, other than a bad caught stealing a year or so ago. Results and eye test have him at least solid on my book. It was always whether or not the bat ever found consistency.

The Twins had one of the best overall staffs in the league last year. Talent is a huge part of that. But Jeffers and Vazquez guiding that staff is also a part of the results.

Jeffers' numbers can and probably will regress some. Even then he can be very much above average. And there's at least a reasonable chance Vazquez rebounds to at least a little better year offensively. 

I think a generally 60/40 split makes the most sense between the two.

Odds say Camargo gets his ML initiation at some point this year. Everything I've heard is good guy, good teammate, solid game calling and defense, a little above average arm, and solid power. Bat to ball skill will probably determine how good he might become.

Going deeper, 3 interesting prospects in Winkel, Cardenas, and Cossetti. 4 if you count Olivar, though I think it's a bit debatable if he remains at catcher in the future. 

While no TOP prospects in the system right now, the Twins are in a pretty enviable spot overall.

Posted
1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I think "regular catcher" in Rocco's book is no more than 100 games behind the plate. If Jeffers hits like he did last year the first quarter of the season we might see him DH a bit more. It would be a huge surprise if both catchers avoid the IL this year. My best guess as to distribution of starts is 90-60-12 with the equal chance that Jeffers or Vázquez gets injured, and it is probably both.

Obviously, guessing here…….Vazquez doing bat speed drills this winter & highly motivated after being embarrassed in last year’s playoffs ……….lost some weight as well…….also, having desire for Jeffers (both) FRESH in October will keep the starts more “even” through the year.

Am assuming only two guys for the whole season again just because injury time is even more of a guess. 86 for Jeffers @ Catcher (53%) with 14 at DH (if his offense stays stellar) & 76 for Vazquez (47%), with a bunch of those (25) coming v. LH pitching.

Vazquez got $10M because of experience - Defense - .271 BA from ‘19 - ‘22……….expecting a bit of an uptick from him in ‘24 is certainly plausible ……….if that happens it may be more like 50/50?

Posted

I'm of the opinion that Vazquez makes Jeffers better.

Whether it's due to rest, or due to competition, or due to mentor, something was different last year. Glad they're keeping the tandem going.

Even if Vasquez doesn't hit, he's a valuable player.

Jeffers can easily get enough at bats in a DH/C rotation now that we have a manager who isn't petrified by the unlikely scenario where a third catcher is needed. 

Posted
3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Anecdotally, here are my thoughts/memories on Jeffers' 2023 defense: 1) Throwing/stolen bases: Jeffers was about league average 13/53 and considering that bases are easier to steal off right handed pitchers and that right handers logged well over 90% of the innings for the team in 2023, I think that number is respectable. 2) I remember Bremer bragging that Jeffers had blocked 100% of expected low pitches sometime during mid-season and he promptly let a low pitch go to the backstop. Overall, I thought RJ was okay blocking low pitches, but he seemed to slip a little as the season wore on. 3) I mentioned in an earlier post that I recalled Jeffers having a good "Catcher's ERA" (better than Vazquez), but I can't find that stat right now, (if someone would enlighten us that would be great). 4) Also mentioned earlier, the various sources are all over the board on defense, not only for Jeffers, but Carlos Santana and many others. I think catchers are probably the hardest to judge with much of their rating depending on an umpire's judgement or how much working well with a pitcher (calling a good game) matters and how much is the catcher. 

I thought Jeffers was more than acceptable defensively in 2023. He may have worn down a bit at the end of the season, but his hitting was so far superior to Vázquez that it was proper that he start all the post season games. 

Catcher ERA isn't used or reported any more because the catcher has as much control over ERA as a pitcher has control over wins. The Twins went 14-18 in Sonny Gray starts and 16-13 in Joe Ryan starts. Nowadays we're able to actually analyze most of the catcher's contributions via framing/blocking/preventing steals. I imagine some smart folks are working on a 'game calling' or pitch sequencing metric, but that probably gets tricky with intended pitch location.

Anyway, to answer your question yes you can still find catcher ERA. It's buried on individual baseball reference player pages under "Advanced Fielding". 

Jeffers had a 3.61 cERA and Vazquez had a 4.09. 

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