Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #6 Austin Martin, IF/OF

[Steve Lein]

Slotting in at sixth on Twins Daily’s Top Prospect list for 2024 is a former fifth overall pick in the draft. Though he has had some missteps along his climb up the ladder, his pedigree, athleticism, and versatility has him on the doorstep to the majors as a super-utility type ready to step in at multiple positions.

It seems like Austin Martin's scouting report has changed in significant ways a handful of times in his short pro career. He's survived and advanced, though, and his time is coming.

Age: 24 (DOB: 3/23/1999)
2023 Stats: 67 games, 282 PA, .260/.381/.398, 11 2B, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 19 SB, 13.8% BB, 16.3% K
ETA: 2024
2023 Ranking:  10

National Top 100 Rankings:
BA: NA | MLB: NA | ATH: NR | BP: NA

What’s To Like
While there is never any guarantee that a highly-drafted player is going to turn into a superstar (or even a major leaguer, if we’re being honest), there is something to be said about why a player was thus regarded. In Martin’s case, heading into the 2020 draft, he was a leader on a team that had won the College World Series and widely thought of as the best pure hitter in the class. He'd hit nearly .400 that junior season in the SEC, as a shortstop. The Toronto Blue Jays selected him at the fifth spot in that year’s shortened draft, and he immediately showed up in the top 25 of national prospect lists.

The Blue Jays then pushed him straight to Double A to start his career, and he hit .281/.424/.383 before coming to the Twins in the trade for Jose Berrios. He finished out the season with Wichita, batting .254/.399/.381 in his first 37 games with a new organization. 

You should notice a couple of things in those batting lines, in that the average and slugging percentage weren’t as high as one might be hoping, and that’s part of the reason he began to fall down those prospect lists. But he also got on base at a clip over .400, so there were still some things to like in his performance.

From all reports, the Twins worked hard with Martin to try and unlock some of the power that was perceived to be missing, and you can see that effort going for naught the next year. Martin’s batting average dropped nearly 30 points at the same level, and his slugging sagged even farther, as he clubbed just two home runs in 90 games, ending with a .683 OPS. Even that on-base percentage that you could hang a hat on was no longer in elite territory. Is this who Martin was going to be?

I’d suggest an injury to his elbow and getting sent to the Arizona Fall League to make up for missed time set him back on the right trajectory. It was clear the adjustments for power didn’t quite work before he missed a month and a half of the season, and when he came back, he was able to reset.

He was fantastic in the AFL, hitting .374/.454/.482 with six doubles and 10 stolen bases, being named to the league’s All-Star team.

He also split his time evenly between shortstop and the outfield, showcasing a versatility that would become more pronounced in the following season. He ranked second on his team in OPS at .936, trailing only fellow Twins prospect and breakout AFL star, Edouard Julien. For comparison’s sake, his batting average and OBP were higher than Royce Lewis’s when he took home that league’s MVP award a few years prior. I don’t think the comparisons to Lewis end there, either.

What’s Left to Work On
Speaking of, he and Lewis have both dealt with some of the same issues coming up through the minors with the Twins. There have been some developmental missteps (perhaps including the team trying to turn him into a hitter he's not destined to be) and some injuries.

Martin’s 2023 started with another elbow injury, and the fear going into spring training was that he may have to end it early with Tommy John surgery. Luckily, that wasn’t the case, and he returned to full-time action at the end of June. Upon finishing a bit of a rehab tour in the FCL and with Fort Myers, Martin was promoted to the St. Paul Saints for the start of July and finished out the season healthy. It would be nice if he could remain as such for a full season.

With the Saints last year, he hit .263 with an on-base percentage again approaching .400 in 59 games. His best month was August, when his OPS eclipsed 1.000 behind a .460 OBP and four home runs. 

It’s never going to be the main part of his game, but the power played in that short sample, and he also was a menace on the basepaths, swiping 11 in 13 attempts on the month. If he can continue to get on base like this at the next level, there is a very valuable player here, especially if he's capable of filling in on the grass or dirt on any particular day.

While he started to show he could handle multiple positions that fall out in the desert, that was even more apparent with St. Paul last year. He started 33 games at second base, 10 in center field, and 12 in left at Triple A. He will need to continue to be ready at multiple spots if he’s going to crack the major-league lineup, so getting all the exposure he can to different positions will help. 

What’s Next
A good start to his 2024 season means maintaining his solid walk and strikeout rates from the outset back with the Saints. As he heated up last year, those “pure hitter” reports from when he was drafted remained on display. He struck out just 43 times in 59 games with the Saints (17.1%), while drawing 36 walks (14.3%). When he’s going, he’s fully capable of a strong on-base percentage for a leadoff man, or a great one for somebody turning the lineup over. The speed and versatility will also play in ways much different than say, former fan-favorite utility man, Luis Arráez when he was cracking the majors.

He may never be that superstar you hope to get with a guy drafted as high as he was (and acquired for a player as important to the franchise as Berríos), but there is no doubt in my mind that Austin Martin will put on a Twins uniform for the first time during the 2024 season. Whether that’s filling in for an injury later in the season, or even earning a spot on the Twins roster as Byron Buxton insurance to break camp like Michael A. Taylor did last year, Martin will be needed. 

He’s also, theoretically, a ready-made replacement for the likes of Willi Castro and Nick Gordon in a utility role whenever such a need arises. The Twins will hope to turn him from needed to unabashedly wanted in the years ahead.

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Are you optimistic about Martin’s future with the Twins? What are you looking for out of him during the coming season? Join the discussion and comment below!

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Love it! 

I wish someone could explain to me, like I'm 5, why he isn't the ideal 4th outfielder/backup 2b at minimum? He doesn't strike out, he gets on base, he has speed (and is VERY GOOD at stealing bases.) 

Why does adding a Adam Duvall improve the team MORE than just using Martin? His power has been good, but his strikeout rate is also north of 30%. They have enough other hitters who already have high strikeout rates.

I also don't see why Nick Gordon is listed ahead of him still. Nothing against Nick, I just see Martin bringing more to the table for the 2024 team.

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

I think the Twins were right to experiment with Martin to try and unlock some power. If you think you can turn a .280/.400/.380 hitter into even a .260/.390/.420 hitter you've gained 30 points of OPS and done very well for yourself.

They also were right to abandon that approach last season and let him do his thing. A speedy utility fielder with close to a league average batting average and walks nearly as much as he strikes out is a very useful player, if not the superstar they'd hoped for. 

[FlyingFinn]

7 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I also don't see why Nick Gordon is listed ahead of him still. Nothing against Nick, I just see Martin bringing more to the table for the 2024 team.

I think the only reason is to have Martin starting 6 days per week instead of maybe 3 to 4 with the Twins if everyone is healthy.

[Nashvilletwin]

11 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Love it! 

I wish someone could explain to me, like I'm 5, why he isn't the ideal 4th outfielder/backup 2b at minimum? He doesn't strike out, he gets on base, he has speed (and is VERY GOOD at stealing bases.) 

Why does adding a Adam Duvall improve the team MORE than just using Martin?

I also don't see why Nick Gordon is listed ahead of him still. Nothing against Nick, I just see Martin bringing more to the table for the 2024 team.

 

Castro currently is a more proven commodity as a 4th OFer.  Having said that, as a super utility player he, on paper, he is better suited for the role than Gordon for all the reasons you mentioned. However, Gordon had two attributes that Martin does not have: 1) big league experience and 2) he’s out of options.

Let’s see what happens during spring training. It’s not the Twins MO to break camp with rookies like Martin or Lee.  But, if Gordon gets traded or if there are any OF injuries or (I’d like to think at least) Martin has a scorching camp, we could see him sooner than later.

Regardless, the young man is going to be 25 before opening day: it’s time we see him in the bigs! But it looks like he will still need to earn the call up across the river.

[Danchat]

My question for Martin is how high will his batting average at the major league level be? Some have compared him to Arraez but he's never consistently hit that well in the minors (.256 career minors average, compared to Arraez's .331). Yes, it's basically guaranteed he'll take a boatload of walks, but will that be in addition to a .240 average or something more like a .270-.280 average? With limited power, that will be key if he wants to stick as a starter in the majors.

I see he played a bunch of 2B at AAA last year when I thought he was playing in the outfield more... only 23 starts in the OF in AAA last year. This after he played a bunch of SS in 2021/22 just for management to realize what we all knew that he couldn't handle that position. I guess he's being trained to be a utility player? I thought it'd make more sense to fully convert him to being an outfielder who can play all three spots, but perhaps being able to handle 2B could prove handy in the future.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

I think the only reason is to have Martin starting 6 days per week instead of maybe 3 to 4 with the Twins if everyone is healthy.

Yeah, but Martin will be 25 in March. It's not like he is 19 anymore.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Castro currently is a more proven commodity as a 4th OFer.  Having said that, as a super utility player he, on paper, he is better suited for the role than Gordon for all the reasons you mentioned. However, Gordon had two attributes that Martin does not have: 1) big league experience and 2) he’s out of options.

Let’s see what happens during spring training. It’s not the Twins MO to break camp with rookies like Martin or Lee.  But, if Gordon gets traded or if there are any OF injuries or (I’d like to think at least) Martin has a scorching camp, we could see him sooner than later.

Regardless, the young man is going to be 25 before opening day: it’s time we see him in the bigs! But it looks like he will still need to earn the call up across the river.

Castro and Martin both playing a lot helps this team right? 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Just a request here: Other years you list the already reviewed players on the list at the end of the article with links to their review article. Any chance that could be done on the Top 5? Its just nice to look over the whole list each time.

Otherwise, imo you guys put Martin way too high. But love this feature. Good work.

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

I think the only reason is to have Martin starting 6 days per week instead of maybe 3 to 4 with the Twins if everyone is healthy.

I've never understood this for a 24 year old....if he's better then Gordon, he should be up contributing for 3-4 games a week. That's way more valuable to the team than keeping him in AAA so he can get 8-12 more at bats a week.

I'm a believer when he's healthy. Let's hope this is that year.

[Nashvilletwin]

As things currently stand, Gordon has the last spot on the roster. That could change due to injury or trade (realistically Gordon is the  only one with any real likelihood of getting moved before the season).

Our “bench” in St. Paul currently consists of Lee, Larnach, Miranda, Martin, Severino, Keirsey, Thompson, and Camargo/Williams (C). Lee probably does not get the call unless a more every day type role opens up.  It’s not clear who gets the OF call first - Larnach or Martin.  It might just depend on who’s hot and using up options. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Just a request here: Other years you list the already reviewed players on the list at the end of the article with links to their review article. Any chance that could be done on the Top 5? Its just nice to look over the whole list each time.

Otherwise, imo you guys put Martin way too high. But love this feature. Good work.

Just curious why you think he is rated too high?

[stringer bell]

I see Martin as the far better fit between him and Nick Gordon. Both would probably be eligible for starts at three positions—2B, cf, and lf—and Martin would be a better on-base performer and threat on the bases. The team needs another right handed hitter in the outfield and adding Martin’s speed and versatility would be ideal.

I continue to wonder how fast Martin is. Does anyone have a current sprint speed or other measure of his speed?

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

As things currently stand, Gordon has the last spot on the roster. That could change due to injury or trade (realistically Gordon is the  only one with any real likelihood of getting moved before the season).

Our “bench” in St. Paul currently consists of Lee, Larnach, Miranda, Martin, Severino, Keirsey, Thompson, and Camargo/Williams (C). Lee probably does not get the call unless there a more every day type role opens up.  It’s not clear who gets the OF call first - Larnach or Martin.  It might just depend on who’s hot and using up options. 

I think who is called up could also depend on whether he's being called up to start or if it's to play 2 or 3 times a week. I don't think Martin gets the call unless it will be to play regularly everyday. I could certainly be wrong though. 

[Nashvilletwin]

As things currently stand, Gordon has the last spot on the roster. That could change due to injury or trade (realistically Gordon is the  only one with any real likelihood of getting moved before the season).

Our “bench” in St. Paul currently consists of Lee, Larnach, Miranda, Martin, Severino, Keirsey, Thompson, and Camargo/Williams (C). Lee probably does not get the call unless there a more every day type role opens up.  It’s not clear who gets the OF call first - Larnach or Martin.  It might just depend on who’s hot and using up options.

Just thinking about it a bit more; if Martin has the on base skills, the speed, and the super utility, he’s actually a great late inning matchup, “we need a guy on base” pinch hitter type.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just curious why you think he is rated too high?

When I said way too high I guess that would be relatively speaking. I think he is outside my top 10 is all. I guess I just see guys like Lewis, Soto and Winokur as more high upside prospects at this point. I do like Martin and think he has a chance to be valuable to the 2024 team. I wish him well and hope he comes through.

[Nashvilletwin]

Sorry for the partial double post above.  Technical difficulties.

Btw, is 2024 finally the year we get to see what we got for Berrios?

[D.C Twins]

24 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I've never understood this for a 24 year old....if he's better then Gordon, he should be up contributing for 3-4 games a week. That's way more valuable to the team than keeping him in AAA so he can get 8-12 more at bats a week.

I'm a believer when he's healthy. Let's hope this is that year.

This... this....aaaaaaaaaaaaand... THIS!   We need to see what we have in Martin THIS year. 

And we need to have a clear back-up plan... and a back-up to the back-up plan in CF for BUCK.... so if you are going to put him in AAA... he should be in CF warming up.

[Mike Sixel]

I admit to being shocked he's this highly rated at this point (not that I disagree).

[DJL44]

50 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Love it! 

I wish someone could explain to me, like I'm 5, why he isn't the ideal 4th outfielder/backup 2b at minimum? He doesn't strike out, he gets on base, he has speed (and is VERY GOOD at stealing bases.) 

Why does adding a Adam Duvall improve the team MORE than just using Martin? His power has been good, but his strikeout rate is also north of 30%. They have enough other hitters who already have high strikeout rates.

I also don't see why Nick Gordon is listed ahead of him still. Nothing against Nick, I just see Martin bringing more to the table for the 2024 team.

If you're okay with him being limited to being a backup then I suppose you could make that move. I'd rather give him the chance to develop more in AAA instead of sitting on the bench. He'll definitely debut in 2024 and I expect him to start when he gets called up even if it is just as an injury replacement.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I agree with others, I'd like to see Martin on the 2024 Twins over Nick Gordon. imo Gordon should almost be in the position of a non roster invite at this point. Sorry Nick but you've had your chances, you lost the advantage.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If you're okay with him being limited to being a backup then I suppose you could make that move. I'd rather give him the chance to develop more in AAA instead of sitting on the bench. He'll definitely debut in 2024 and I expect him to start when he gets called up even if it is just as an injury replacement.

do you think an extra 8 at bats a week and 4 plays or less a week really matters to his development? It might, I don't really know....but I love his speed and base stealing and think he'd be a real asset to the team (assuming health) right now.

[SaberNerd]

He's walked at every level, but if he has anemic power MLB pitchers will not be walking him 10+%.  Doesn't need to have even average power, just enough to make pitchers respect him.

[big dog]

Martin over Gordon. I am 100% in on that.

[DJL44]

32 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If he's better then Gordon, he should be up contributing for 3-4 games a week. That's way more valuable to the team than keeping him in AAA so he can get 8-12 more at bats a week.

A 790 OPS in AAA doesn't offer much hope that he's actually better than Nick Gordon right now.

It's about how MUCH better he is than Gordon as well as what happens to their depth if they cut Nick Gordon entirely. Do you try for the extra 0.2 WAR in April and regret it when you have to play Niko Goodrum out of position in June?

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

do you think an extra 8 at bats a week and 4 plays or less a week really matters to his development? It might, I don't really know....but I love his speed and base stealing and think he'd be a real asset to the team (assuming health) right now.

I don't think he has mastered AAA yet (790 OPS) and can still develop at that level.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I don't think he has mastered AAA yet (790 OPS) and can still develop at that level.

I understand that....my concern is that Nick Gordon will be mediocre, and keep his job no matter how Martin plays....until one of them is hurt. 

As for your earlier post, he might not be better than Gordon, I get that. This constant fear that many here have of mediocre players getting hurt, the AAA guy coming up and getting hurt, then having bad players play is something I don't agree with, but understand that I'm less risk adverse than many...

[EGFTShaw]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Love it! 

I wish someone could explain to me, like I'm 5, why he isn't the ideal 4th outfielder/backup 2b at minimum? He doesn't strike out, he gets on base, he has speed (and is VERY GOOD at stealing bases.) 

Why does adding a Adam Duvall improve the team MORE than just using Martin? His power has been good, but his strikeout rate is also north of 30%. They have enough other hitters who already have high strikeout rates.

I also don't see why Nick Gordon is listed ahead of him still. Nothing against Nick, I just see Martin bringing more to the table for the 2024 team.

 

Exactly!!!!💯💯👍👍

I believe the Kids Are Alright and we really need to know what some of our top talent is capable of so we can decide what it is we really need.

We will never be the type of team that can just spend its way out of trouble. 

So, because of this we need to draft and develop our talent, (we seemed to be doing better at this than in the past), and decide from this talent who to parlay it into a better team either via promotion and trading a veteran or trading the talent for a established veteran under team control.

[chpettit19]

58 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I've never understood this for a 24 year old....if he's better then Gordon, he should be up contributing for 3-4 games a week. That's way more valuable to the team than keeping him in AAA so he can get 8-12 more at bats a week.

I'm a believer when he's healthy. Let's hope this is that year.

I think it's a question of is he so much better than Gordon that it's worth getting rid of Gordon for? I think that's a pretty big leap and it's pretty reasonable to hold onto Gordon to start the year and let Martin show he can dominate AAA before they force themselves to rely on him for MLB production.

[Dman]

52 minutes ago, Danchat said:

My question for Martin is how high will his batting average at the major league level be? Some have compared him to Arraez but he's never consistently hit that well in the minors (.256 career minors average, compared to Arraez's .331). Yes, it's basically guaranteed he'll take a boatload of walks, but will that be in addition to a .240 average or something more like a .270-.280 average? With limited power, that will be key if he wants to stick as a starter in the majors.

I see he played a bunch of 2B at AAA last year when I thought he was playing in the outfield more... only 23 starts in the OF in AAA last year. This after he played a bunch of SS in 2021/22 just for management to realize what we all knew that he couldn't handle that position. I guess he's being trained to be a utility player? I thought it'd make more sense to fully convert him to being an outfielder who can play all three spots, but perhaps being able to handle 2B could prove handy in the future.

Yeah those are the reason's I haven't been as high on him.  There is a reason exit velocities matter.  Harder hit balls are just harder to defend and drop in more often for hits and extra base hits.  I see Martin's value, but pitchers will be happy to pitch to contact if his batting average is .256.  No reason to walk a hitter like that in the big leagues and if he lacks power the worst outcome for the pitcher is giving up a hit as he isn't going to hit many HR's.  I think improvements need to be made for him to be setup for success at the MLB level.  He's a bit too much like Celestino for my taste and Celestino is gone.

Hey Maybe this year he smacks the ball around and looks real good, but given what I have seen 6 seems far to high for me. Martin didn't even crack the 800 OPS mark at AAA where they had the auto strike zone and 900 OPS's were rampant.  I mean Anthony Prato looks like a better hitter than Martin at this stage as he had a 990 OPS and better walk rate and OBP at .450 and he's not even in the top 30.  

I am not trying to be down on Martin but it looks like there is work to do to me.