Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #6 Austin Martin, IF/OF

[stringer bell]

I think things will shake out so that Martin gets his chance fairly early in the season, either by injury or poor performance. I like what he is projected to bring to the table, but as mentioned above, so far it is projection only. 

I did some checking on Martin's speed and he is reported to be above average, but not elite in scouting reports. They also say he has great instincts on the bases and will be a plus base runner. Just a reminder, Ronald Acuna Jr. stole over 70 bases last year and his sprint speed is only 65th percentile.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

You don’t think an injury, being traded, and missing a college season with the pandemic had anything to do with it?

Seriously though, what role does Gordon play on this team? I’m not hating on him, he is a major league player. I’m just struggling to find his role.

Duvall, he is also fine, I guess. 

I'm not a big Gordon fan either. Even in his good season he couldn't get on base very well. A 4%BB rate isn't inspiring.

On the other hand, I'm the low guy on Martin too. I have a hard time getting excited about slap hitters. A .361 MiLB slugging percentage isn't very good. I like that he can get on base, but with that little XBH ability, I'd like to see his OBP quite a bit higher.

I'm not down on the system at all though. There are other guys I like quite a bit.

[weitz41]

I like Martin as a player that makes the 26 man out of SP. #6 is a bit high for me, but all the parts are there for it to be the right spot for him, maybe even a little low. I've seen a few talk about E Rod's .400 OBP in A and A+ ball being a rare thing. Martin, after a slow start, ended the season in SP with a .387 OBP. I believe that translates well to MLB. No, he may never be a 25 homer guy., but a 10-15 hr, 30+ doubles, and a few triples guy, with maybe .280 BA, .380 OBP and .400 slug with 20-30 steals is a what? 2.5-4 WAR player? That's a player you want as many as you can get on your team. Here's hoping he gets there.

[gman]

I can see Martin and Julian rotating out of the lead off spot. I think full time I would prefer Martin to lead off and Julian batting second.. That would be a pair with very high OBP and let the guys behind them knock in a bunch of runs. Are they really going to grove fastballs to Julian so that Martin doesn't run amuck.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

He did have 57 total at bats in September, so it's a fairly small sample. His August, 79 at bats (this feels so small too) he had over a 1,000 ops.

But yes, you are right, we'll have to see how he looks coming up this spring.

Yep, I'm rooting for him. I'd much rather have what we hope Martin can be than what we know Duvall is; I'm just not in a hurry to be relying on MLB production from a guy who hasn't been all that consistent in the high minors. 

[Fatbat]

At some point soon, Martin will be promoted and Gordon will be gone unless Gordon crushes ST.  It’s certainly possible that Gordon blocks Martins path to the majors but whats the chances?  Martin will be in the show… June at the latest. 

[DocBauer]

I wouldn't have Martin this high simply because I don't think his ceiling is as high as when drafted, and he's been too inconsistent. Low BA and SLG but a high OB and SB ability. 

He doesn't have to be a 20 HR hitter, but he can't just be a slap hitter and succeed. ML pitchers will eat him up. He needs enough power to achieve roughly 50 XB a year. Doesn't matter how he gets them. 35 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 HR would be excellent. Add in 30 SB and we have a full time starting OF and probable leadoff hitter.

His floor would be a nice utility role player.

I'm very, very pleased with his AFL performance and solid 2023 at AAA. The 1.000 OPS in August only adds to my hopes for him. I think it's only a  question of when, and not if, he's with the Twins. To me, it's not even a debate about he or Gordon, because I'm not so sure Gordon makes it anyway as I think the Twins are still adding another bat, probably Taylor or Duvall, but we'll see.

There's still enough inconsistencies in Martin's game that a couple more months at AAA, playing daily, can do no harm. I get he's 25yo, but that isn't exactly ancient. And nobody is saying he should spend the whole year there. Just saying he's unproven enough, uneven enough in his AAA experience that a little more time instead of reserving a spot on the roster at the sake of someone else to begin the season doesn't make sense to me.

I'd bet he gets 200-300 ML AB once is all said and done. Unless the Twins are just really, really lucky health wise.

[Shaitan]

6 hours ago, jkcarew said:

…he and Martin seem redundant…

Including where they were drafted.

[Otaknam]

The FO’s love affair with home runs makes them indifferent to other important aspects of the game that contribute to team success. Martin is a good example. Trying to unleash power seems to have diminished the skills he does have: a contact hitter, speed/base stealing, high on base percentage, and defensive flexibility. Let Martin relax and be the player he is and let’s see what happens. My guess is he becomes a valuable multi position player. 

[Trov]

Martin will not be a mega star, but if he can get on base near .400 and steal bases at a high clip and play good defense wherever he plays or possibly get moved around, he will have a nice career at the majors.  As long as he has enough power to keep outfields honest he should be fine.  People wanted him to be more than what he was by trying to turn him into a power hitter, and then when he did not develop power, everyone wrote him off, but a .400 OBP is still great even if mostly just walks and singles with the occasional double.  With his speed he will get plenty of stolen bases. 

[bird]

21 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Love it! 

I wish someone could explain to me, like I'm 5, why he isn't the ideal 4th outfielder/backup 2b at minimum? He doesn't strike out, he gets on base, he has speed (and is VERY GOOD at stealing bases.) 

Why does adding a Adam Duvall improve the team MORE than just using Martin? His power has been good, but his strikeout rate is also north of 30%. They have enough other hitters who already have high strikeout rates.

I also don't see why Nick Gordon is listed ahead of him still. Nothing against Nick, I just see Martin bringing more to the table for the 2024 team.

 

This, exactly this.

[arby58]

21 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

As things currently stand, Gordon has the last spot on the roster. That could change due to injury or trade (realistically Gordon is the  only one with any real likelihood of getting moved before the season).

Our “bench” in St. Paul currently consists of Lee, Larnach, Miranda, Martin, Severino, Keirsey, Thompson, and Camargo/Williams (C). Lee probably does not get the call unless a more every day type role opens up.  It’s not clear who gets the OF call first - Larnach or Martin.  It might just depend on who’s hot and using up options. 

Between Larnach and Martin, Martin is the one who can play CF. My guess is if Buxton can't play out there on a semi-regular basis, Martin gets the call up. If it's Wallner or Kepler on the IL, it may well be Larnach.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

Martin will not be a mega star, but if he can get on base near .400 and steal bases at a high clip and play good defense wherever he plays or possibly get moved around, he will have a nice career at the majors.  As long as he has enough power to keep outfields honest he should be fine.  People wanted him to be more than what he was by trying to turn him into a power hitter, and then when he did not develop power, everyone wrote him off, but a .400 OBP is still great even if mostly just walks and singles with the occasional double.  With his speed he will get plenty of stolen bases. 

Sounds right. Luis Arraez was among the league leaders in OBP (8th at .393) last year, but he was only tied for 88th in runs scored. Some of that, no doubt, is on the rest of the Marlins offense, but some is also the fact that he mostly hit singles and doesn't run very well. Martin's speed will help him, both in advancing from first to third and turning singles into doubles via a stolen base.

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Sounds right. Luis Arraez was among the league leaders in OBP (8th at .393) last year, but he was only tied for 88th in runs scored. Some of that, no doubt, is on the rest of the Marlins offense, but some is also the fact that he mostly hit singles and doesn't run very well. Martin's speed will help him, both in advancing from first to third and turning singles into doubles via a stolen base.

......and going first to third on a single and scoring from first on a double. Those were the things that made Molitor a great base runner even into his late 30s and 40s. It is what infuriates me with guys like Kepler and Kirilloff who have okay wheels but don't squeeze out the extra bases. Stolen bases are nice, but taking the extra base is just about as important.

[Steve Lein]

On 2/6/2024 at 11:34 AM, Danchat said:

My question for Martin is how high will his batting average at the major league level be? Some have compared him to Arraez but he's never consistently hit that well in the minors (.256 career minors average, compared to Arraez's .331). Yes, it's basically guaranteed he'll take a boatload of walks, but will that be in addition to a .240 average or something more like a .270-.280 average? With limited power, that will be key if he wants to stick as a starter in the majors.

I see he played a bunch of 2B at AAA last year when I thought he was playing in the outfield more... only 23 starts in the OF in AAA last year. This after he played a bunch of SS in 2021/22 just for management to realize what we all knew that he couldn't handle that position. I guess he's being trained to be a utility player? I thought it'd make more sense to fully convert him to being an outfielder who can play all three spots, but perhaps being able to handle 2B could prove handy in the future.

If he can hit at least .250, I think he's fully capable of pairing that with an OBP around .350. His IsoD in the minors is .132 for his career, peaking at .145. That's not far off from what Edouard Julien was doing in the minors as the walk champion of the universe at double and triple-A. His translated pretty well, and I think Martin's will too, simply because he also strikes out considerably less.

Don't take 23 starts in the OF this way. He only played 59 total games, so that's still about 40% of all his playtime. And he didn't start doing this after he came to the Twins. His first season split between the Blue Jays and Twins, he played about 50% of his games in the outfield. 

 

[gman]

I believe, not know, that most of the reason he played the infield more than outfield last year was to allow his elbow to fully heal by making short throws from second rather than try to uncork long throws from the outfield. Of course I could be wrong, second base is also more valuable on the trade market.

[Cris E]

Miranda and Gordon are both redundant on this 2024 roster (see Castro and Santana) so while they could make the squad I see Miranda's option as a ticket to St Paul. Similarly I believe Martin starts the season in St Paul to work on defensive consistency and doubles power and stays there until Buxton goes on the DL. 

Gordon's season in the sun came before they had Castro on hand, so I really see his opportunity coming in ST, not the regular season. So that kind of means the decision rests on the balance between how well Miranda plays and how easily they think they could get Gordon through waivers. I'm skeptical that other teams see Gordon as much more than, say, a less proven Bubba Thompson with a suspect glove in CF and no power to warrant any time in a corner OF spot.

EDIT: Martin? Oh yeah, I should mention him.  He's going to be a fine CF or utility guy. Maybe not great, but good enough to leave in the leadoff spot for a few years until someone takes it away from him. He'll see a bunch of pitches and run around on the bases and play defense where the openings appear. By June he should be here.

[Stew]

Something tells me he will turn the corner this year. I think for awhile he will play at St. Paul, but he come up when someone's injured. Then I think he will have some moments like lewis had last year. Anyway he will start out the following year with the Twins. I also think Gordan will have better year than two years ago, when he was healthy. That would work out fine, since I think the Twins might look to trade Gordon.

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/6/2024 at 12:32 PM, FlyingFinn said:

I think the only reason is to have Martin starting 6 days per week instead of maybe 3 to 4 with the Twins if everyone is healthy.

The # of starts for Martin aren’t there in Mpls. - I think 3-4 a week is a real stretch with Castro & Farmer ahead of him………..Gordon is out of options……biggest reason. He either makes the Team or they move him.

405 AB’s in ‘22. He had 28 doubles & 9 HR & hit .272…………..All in the Show, not, AA or a Fall League. Started at 2B much of the beginning of the season then played LF & CF. Started 43 games in CF.

Experience and belief in a guy that’s done it in the Majors. He deserves a shot. I don’t think Gordon is necessarily ahead of Martin but there’s no reason to put Martin ahead of Gordon until they both get a look this Spring.

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, Cris E said:

Miranda and Gordon are both redundant on this 2024 roster (see Castro and Santana) so while they could make the squad I see Miranda's option as a ticket to St Paul. Similarly I believe Martin starts the season in St Paul to work on defensive consistency and doubles power and stays there until Buxton goes on the DL. 

Gordon's season in the sun came before they had Castro on hand, so I really see his opportunity coming in ST, not the regular season. So that kind of means the decision rests on the balance between how well Miranda plays and how easily they think they could get Gordon through waivers. I'm skeptical that other teams see Gordon as much more than, say, a less proven Bubba Thompson with a suspect glove in CF and no power to warrant any time in a corner OF spot.

EDIT: Martin? Oh yeah, I should mention him.  He's going to be a fine CF or utility guy. Maybe not great, but good enough to leave in the leadoff spot for a few years until someone takes it away from him. He'll see a bunch of pitches and run around on the bases and play defense where the openings appear. By June he should be here.

I agree, frankly, I think Miranda could hit .450 this Spring and not make the 26 man roster. Santana signing sealed his fate ………if he’s really good they may trade him but doubtful. He’s a perfect offset for Kirilloff at 1B starting in ‘25.

Bubba Thompson has speed…….been released multiple times. Gordon had a terrible start last year and broke his leg May 16.

2022 Gordon hit .272 - 28 doubles - 9 HR in 405 AB’s with the Big Club. He started at 3 positions regularly. Not sure what’s not to like there. Much better than anything I saw in Thompson’s history. He may not fit the Twins roster but he’ll get a shot if he’s at any reasonable level of offense in Spring Training.

Martin hit .260 in AAA with no power. I like him going forward but don’t see any definitive distinction for him over Gordon.

[stringer bell]

15 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Martin hit .260 in AAA with no power. I like him going forward but don’t see any definitive distinction for him over Gordon.

From over 700 plate appearances, we know quite a bit about Nick Gordon. He is about average against right handed pitching and can play three positions acceptably (LF, CF and 2B). Everything for Martin is projection, but he does profile to get on base more, be more of a threat on the bases and hit left handed pitching better. He would figure to play the same positions where Nick Gordon is trusted and might be a better defender. If all of those projections pan out, Martin is a far better fit for the 2024 Twins, but none of this is proven. 

As far as making the Opening Day roster, I think there's a really good chance the Twins will go with the more proven player, especially since Gordon is out of options, but if Martin meets the projections and the pedigree he won't be in St. Paul too long.

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, stringer bell said:

From over 700 plate appearances, we know quite a bit about Nick Gordon. He is about average against right handed pitching and can play three positions acceptably (LF, CF and 2B). Everything for Martin is projection, but he does profile to get on base more, be more of a threat on the bases and hit left handed pitching better. He would figure to play the same positions where Nick Gordon is trusted and might be a better defender. If all of those projections pan out, Martin is a far better fit for the 2024 Twins, but none of this is proven. 

As far as making the Opening Day roster, I think there's a really good chance the Twins will go with the more proven player, especially since Gordon is out of options, but if Martin meets the projections and the pedigree he won't be in St. Paul too long.

All good……..I struggle with very few acknowledgments in TD about Gordon’s 2022. However, Trevor Larnach’s lack of real success seems to be OK & he “needs 1500 AB’s” to know where he will be at as a hitter. I don’t dislike the idea of continuing to give Larnach opportunities & I think Martin has a better probable future than Gordon with the organization.

Gordon will get a shot if he’s near a reasonable offensive player this Spring. Can potentially get positive contribution - can groom to be a trade piece - can potentially DFA.

[Cris E]

Regarding Nick Gordon's achievements to date, his fielding numbers weren't great in 2022 and he doesn't have the supporting seasons to indicate that his 111 OPS+ that year wasn't an outlier. In his entire minor league career he only hit over .300 once (in 21 games in the AFL in 2016), he has only reached .350 OBP at one stop (.381 in 42 AA games in 2018) and in his big 2022 MLB season his BABIP was .340 which was well over the league average. And honestly there's no reason to project it to come in above the MLB average of .306 for this year.

In short, he'll have the spring to prove his glove still plays around the diamond and that his doubles power can offset his weak OBP skills.  It may or may not get him in the lineup at Target Field, but as an audition for other teams he'll probably prove he's useful to someone.