Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #6 Austin Martin, IF/OF

[HerbieFan]

The ability of our beloved Minnesota Twins to be consistent contenders will depend on their ability to develop players....both pitching and position players.  I think 2024 is the time to see if Austin Martin can play at the MLB level or not.  He may go up and down multiple times...like Tori Hunter did for example, but I want to see him get minimum 200 ABs this season.  If/when Buxton has to miss extended time, I want this kid to be the relacement.  Time to take off the training wheels.

[Craig Arko]

I suspect the only reason Gordon might beat out Martin to start the season is that Martin still has options remaining? Not a good reason, but that seems to be how this stuff works.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Love it! 

I wish someone could explain to me, like I'm 5, why he isn't the ideal 4th outfielder/backup 2b at minimum? He doesn't strike out, he gets on base, he has speed (and is VERY GOOD at stealing bases.) 

Why does adding a Adam Duvall improve the team MORE than just using Martin? His power has been good, but his strikeout rate is also north of 30%. They have enough other hitters who already have high strikeout rates.

I also don't see why Nick Gordon is listed ahead of him still. Nothing against Nick, I just see Martin bringing more to the table for the 2024 team.

 

Martin scuffled at AAA in 2022 and posted good numbers for only 1/3 of his short season last year. He hasn't shown the ability to consistently hit AAA pitching in 2 years. 

Duvall and Gordon aren't sexy options, but it makes sense. 

[Mike Sixel]

18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think it's a question of is he so much better than Gordon that it's worth getting rid of Gordon for? I think that's a pretty big leap and it's pretty reasonable to hold onto Gordon to start the year and let Martin show he can dominate AAA before they force themselves to rely on him for MLB production.

How much would Martin need to dominate, and how bad would Gordon have to be to take the leap? That's the concern for me....teams tend to be risk adverse and keep mediocre vets around while AAA guys play well (note, I actually like Gordon, this isn't about Gordon).

And, I started that with "IF he's better than Martin".....

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Martin scuffled at AAA in 2022 and posted good numbers for only 1/3 of his short season last year. He hasn't shown the ability to consistently hit AAA pitching in 2 years. 

Duvall and Gordon aren't sexy options, but it makes sense. 

You don’t think an injury, being traded, and missing a college season with the pandemic had anything to do with it?

Seriously though, what role does Gordon play on this team? I’m not hating on him, he is a major league player. I’m just struggling to find his role.

Duvall, he is also fine, I guess. 

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

what role does Gordon play on this team? I’m not hating on him, he is a major league player. I’m just struggling to find his role.

Resting Kepler or Wallner for a day a week, pinch runner, defensive replacement.

[Doctor Gast]

It's exciting to watch Martin play, he's an OB machine & what he does after he gets on makes him more exciting. It's a pity they hadn't played him as much as they should at CF but he's a natural out there. He'll be a great lead-off hitter when there's a LHP. It's great to have that extra RH bat in the OF. It's great that he gets on base plus he can actually field, so we can put him in the OF & 2B knowing he'll do a good job there. Dodgers have shown us that a player like Martin can be very valuable to a team & that Martin will make an impact for this team this season & deserving of your ranking

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

How much would Martin need to dominate, and how bad would Gordon have to be to take the leap? That's the concern for me....teams tend to be risk adverse and keep mediocre vets around while AAA guys play well (note, I actually like Gordon, this isn't about Gordon).

And, I started that with "IF he's better than Martin".....

I'd say significantly better. Injuries are going to happen. I have concerns that they hold onto some vets too long, but I don't trust Martin as much as you and others appear to. He hasn't been great at AAA so I'm really not trying to clear an MLB spot for him on a team that should be trying to fight for a playoff run. 

21 guys got PAs for the Twins last year. 17 guys got more than 150 PAs. That's nearly 2 entire lineups worth of guys. They had 14 guys get 250+ PAs (basically what Martin got at AAA last year), and a 15th at 239. 16 guys over 200 PAs. I just don't believe in clearing opening day roster spots for guys who've never seen an MLB pitch because I think it hurts your chances to maximize success over 162+. I don't see the need to open up a spot for him on the opening day roster. He'll get his chance. I'd rather have a slightly worse Gordon (if he's actually worse at all) on opening day than have to rely on a significantly worse player later on because I wanted to force Martin on the opening day roster.

[Shaitan]

You discussed how he can play multiple positions, but I didn't see any discussion if he can play them well.

Is he an offense-first utility player, or do you leave him out there in a 1-run game?

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Seriously though, what role does Gordon play on this team? I’m not hating on him, he is a major league player. I’m just struggling to find his role.

 

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Resting Kepler or Wallner for a day a week, pinch runner, defensive replacement.

Also resting Buxton and getting some DH PAs against righties. If they think Gordon is 2022 Gordon he'll DH over Santana against righties. The question is who Gordon really is. I think it's worth a month of the season to find out. Won't kill the team.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 

Also resting Buxton and getting some DH PAs against righties. If they think Gordon is 2022 Gordon he'll DH over Santana against righties. The question is who Gordon really is. I think it's worth a month of the season to find out. Won't kill the team.

Why is Gordon a better dh option against righties than either Julien or Kirilloff? And that's WITH Buxton being healthy to play in center.

Anyway, not hating on Gordon. It's very much a numbers game.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Why is Gordon a better dh option against righties than either Julien or Kirilloff? And that's WITH Buxton being healthy to play in center.

Anyway, not hating on Gordon. It's very much a numbers game.

Because both Julien and Kirilloff are already playing the field. The position doesn't matter, just the numbers. Who are your 9 starters against righties? I'd say Catcher of the day, Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton, and Kepler are locked into lineup spots against righties. That's 8 spots. Then it's Castro, Farmer, Santana, other catcher, and, in this discussion, Martin or Gordon. If Gordon is 2022 Gordon he's the 9th guy in the order, if I'm making the lineup card. I agree it's a numbers game, and I think the numbers game says Gordon makes a lot of sense on the opening day roster if they believe he can be 2022 Gordon.

[jmlease1]

59 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I understand that....my concern is that Nick Gordon will be mediocre, and keep his job no matter how Martin plays....until one of them is hurt. 

As for your earlier post, he might not be better than Gordon, I get that. This constant fear that many here have of mediocre players getting hurt, the AAA guy coming up and getting hurt, then having bad players play is something I don't agree with, but understand that I'm less risk adverse than many...

I think that's fair. I think Martin has more upside and utility than Gordon, who was bad last season before the very unfortunate injury, is just ok as a CF, doesn't really have the arm to be the corners, and isn't an infield option anywhere but 2B. Martin's RH bat is also a better fit than another LH bat for the OF, and despite Gordon being reasonable fast, Martin is the better baserunner.

But after the way 2022 imploded due to insufficient depth and acceptable players to put into MLB roles, the FO is putting a premium on depth and has become significantly more risk-adverse on this issue. I'm not sure they're wrong? But I suspect that's why Gordon will hang on to his spot on the roster rather than get surpassed by Martin unless Gordon gets hurt again or implodes.

I was happy to see Martin ranked this high, but pretty surprised. I thought I was one of the last believers, but his AFL time plus how well he responded to his injury recovery at AAA seems to have changed some minds. I really think he can be a quality CF even if he's not showing a lot of power, because he will get on base, and he will advance on the base paths. (much like Wallner, he's not afraid to Don Baylor his way on base) He looks like a really good fit as a 4th OF who can also step on to the dirt in a pinch so long as he stays off of SS. (might not have the arm for 3B either, but he wouldn't embarrass himself).

The real question is whether or not he can drive enough balls into the gap to have a respectable slugging %. he doesn't need to be ripping 15-20 HRs, but he needs to not be empty BA. He'll take his walks and HBPs, but if he gets enough doubles to keep that SLG north of .400 he'll be pretty valuable.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Because both Julien and Kirilloff are already playing the field. The position doesn't matter, just the numbers. Who are your 9 starters against righties? I'd say Catcher of the day, Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton, and Kepler are locked into lineup spots against righties. That's 8 spots. Then it's Castro, Farmer, Santana, other catcher, and, in this discussion, Martin or Gordon. If Gordon is 2022 Gordon he's the 9th guy in the order. I agree it's a numbers game, and I think the numbers game says Gordon makes a lot of sense on the opening day roster if they believe he can be 2022 Gordon.

I hope Kirilloff can stay healthy, but as of now I can't start him defensively over Santana at 1B. I am leaning toward Kirilloff being the primary dh, certainly against righties, as Santana has a good glove.

 

Here is what I would do, and not in batting order, just position order (this is all subject to change if they add another bat, and of course, depending on health.)

 

Against righties

C Jeffers

1B Santana (but maybe Miranda is here?)

2B Julien

SS Correa

3B Lewis

LF Wallner

CF Buxton

RF Kepler

DH Kirilloff

 

Against lefties

C Vazquez

1B Santana

2B Farmer

SS Correa

3B Lewis

LF Castro

CF Buxton

RF Kepler (or Martin? Or a different right handed bat?)

DH Miranda (is he healthy?)

 

I mean, perfect world they sign Bellinger to be the primary 1B against righties and the CF or corner outfielder against lefties. But that's not happening. 

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

39 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Resting Kepler or Wallner for a day a week, pinch runner, defensive replacement.

Isn't that Castro's role?

[Guest]

I've always thought the reason the FO hasn't tried to re-sign Taylor was Martin.  AM offers a terrific offensive OBA upside, versatile, solid defense with improved plate discipline over Taylor.  And he's priced right.  What's not to like, really?

[Cory Engelhardt]

34 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

You discussed how he can play multiple positions, but I didn't see any discussion if he can play them well.

Is he an offense-first utility player, or do you leave him out there in a 1-run game?

He is an athlete, and he has mostly played cf and 2b at St. Paul. I'd imagine if he can play CF, he can handle a corner spot well. I'm not certain if he was taken out of cf late in games, but I'd be surprised.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I hope Kirilloff can stay healthy, but as of now I can't start him defensively over Santana at 1B. I am leaning toward Kirilloff being the primary dh, certainly against righties, as Santana has a good glove.

 

Here is what I would do, and not in batting order, just position order (this is all subject to change if they add another bat, and of course, depending on health.)

 

Against righties

C Jeffers

1B Santana (but maybe Miranda is here?)

2B Julien

SS Correa

3B Lewis

LF Wallner

CF Buxton

RF Kepler

DH Kirilloff

 

Against lefties

C Vazquez

1B Santana

2B Farmer

SS Correa

3B Lewis

LF Castro

CF Buxton

RF Kepler (or Martin? Or a different right handed bat?)

DH Miranda (is he healthy?)

 

I mean, perfect world they sign Bellinger to be the primary 1B against righties and the CF or corner outfielder against lefties. But that's not happening. 

 

 

Yeah, I'm not sacrificing offense at 1B for a better glove, but to each their own. I'm not putting sub-.730 OPS at 1B for their glove. Just not how I'd do things. Santana is a short side of a platoon bat to me. And I'm definitely not forcing Miranda onto the opening day roster to take ABs against righties at the cost of cutting Gordon. It's not ideal, but options matter, and I'm not willing to force a guy with options onto the roster at the cost of cutting a legit major leaguer (different equation if you don't think Gordon is a legit major leaguer). 

I do agree with your vs lefties lineup, minus Miranda. They're going to have to let a young lefty hit against lefties. I'd be good with either Kirilloff or Julien getting those ABs. I don't think Miranda is healthy right now, and on a team I'm expecting to do well that has some depth I'm just not willing to force guys with options onto the opening day roster when it means cutting a guy I think can still play. I'm not saying your force Gordon on the roster all year. If he starts off like he did last year and the team stays healthy for a month while Miranda or Martin or Lee or whoever is tearing St Paul apart I make the move then. I just don't think it makes sense, or is necessary, before opening day.

Agree on Bellinger. Would love him on a 3 year deal. But definitely not happening.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I'm not sacrificing offense at 1B for a better glove, but to each their own. I'm not putting sub-.730 OPS at 1B for their glove. Just not how I'd do things. Santana is a short side of a platoon bat to me. And I'm definitely not forcing Miranda onto the opening day roster to take ABs against righties at the cost of cutting Gordon. It's not ideal, but options matter, and I'm not willing to force a guy with options onto the roster at the cost of cutting a legit major leaguer (different equation if you don't think Gordon is a legit major leaguer). 

I do agree with your vs lefties lineup, minus Miranda. They're going to have to let a young lefty hit against lefties. I'd be good with either Kirilloff or Julien getting those ABs. I don't think Miranda is healthy right now, and on a team I'm expecting to do well that has some depth I'm just not willing to force guys with options onto the opening day roster when it means cutting a guy I think can still play. I'm not saying your force Gordon on the roster all year. If he starts off like he did last year and the team stays healthy for a month while Miranda or Martin or Lee or whoever is tearing St Paul apart I make the move then. I just don't think it makes sense, or is necessary, before opening day.

Agree on Bellinger. Would love him on a 3 year deal. But definitely not happening.

Then maybe it is Duvall, or a trade, instead of where I listed Miranda. That's totally fine too right? 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Then maybe it is Duvall, or a trade, instead of where I listed Miranda. That's totally fine too right? 

I'd prefer Soler, but I can understand why people want a righty OF bat in general. I just don't think it's that important. I'd focus far more on making sure my "vs righties" lineup was as good as I could make it, and would be trying to find the best bat I could to fill the 9th spot in my "vs righties lineup (not the 9 hole, just the 9th starter since I think they already have 8). None of these options are all that enticing to me outside of Soler. 

But to tie this back to Martin before we get too far off the trail here, I just don't think he needs to be forced onto the opening day roster. I like him even though I see him as pretty much the righty version of Gordon despite getting to their OPS in different ways. I'm not sacrificing depth to force that guy on my roster when he has options and has never seen an MLB pitch. I hope he found himself at the end of the year and is making us all salivate by May this year, but I want my best combination of depth and talent to start the year. And I just think that means Gordon in Minneapolis and Martin in St Paul to start the year (with the current makeup of the team).

[jkcarew]

I think he’s turning out to be a high floor guy rather than a high ceiling guy. And that’s OK, That kind of defensive flexibility, baserunning, combined with the ability to make contact and take walks plays very well in a lineup full of power/KO guys. To me he seems like Nick Gordon with better OBP skills. I’ll take that.

I can see Gordon getting another chance, but the leash should be short…he and Martin seem redundant…and the right handed bat fits better, I think.

[KirbyDome89]

56 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

You don’t think an injury, being traded, and missing a college season with the pandemic had anything to do with it?

Seriously though, what role does Gordon play on this team? I’m not hating on him, he is a major league player. I’m just struggling to find his role.

Duvall, he is also fine, I guess. 

The trade didn't seem to bother him at the time it occured; Idk why it would cause him to spiral in 2022. I feel the same way about the pandemic stuff. He had a rough start to 2022 and he didn't finish well last year either. I don't think injuries explain away his lack of production.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The trade didn't seem to bother him at the time it occured; Idk why it would cause him to spiral in 2022. I feel the same way about the pandemic stuff. He had a rough start to 2022 and he didn't finish well last year either. I don't think injuries explain away his lack of production.

But, he did finish last year really well. Like REALLY well. 

[awmonahan]

I think he's ready for a look, and I'm tired of waiting to see what he is. From his numbers and fielding ability, I don't get the impression he'll struggle in MLB. He may not thrive, but certainly could. He needs ABs. 

[KirbyDome89]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

But, he did finish last year really well. Like REALLY well. 

He had a .717 OPS in September. 

[Tibs]

Nice writeup, Steve

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

He had a .717 OPS in September. 

He did have 57 total at bats in September, so it's a fairly small sample. His August, 79 at bats (this feels so small too) he had over a 1,000 ops.

But yes, you are right, we'll have to see how he looks coming up this spring.

[jkcarew]

It wouldn’t surprise me if (when an injury happens) Martin is promoted to play every day, and Gordon remained in the utility role. (Predicated on Martin playing well in AAA, of course.)

[terrydactyls]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 

But to tie this back to Martin before we get too far off the trail here, I just don't think he needs to be forced onto the opening day roster. I like him even though I see him as pretty much the righty version of Gordon despite getting to their OPS in different ways. I'm not sacrificing depth to force that guy on my roster when he has options and has never seen an MLB pitch. I hope he found himself at the end of the year and is making us all salivate by May this year, but I want my best combination of depth and talent to start the year. And I just think that means Gordon in Minneapolis and Martin in St Paul to start the year (with the current makeup of the team).

I seldom agree with chpettit19, but in this instance I can only say Damn Right, Skippy. 

Assuming the spring training performances of Gordon and Martin are fairly close, my feeling is that it would be advantageous for Martin to begin the year in St. Paul to both get in a groove hitting and hone his outfield skills.  The only downside would be when he gets called up in June, people will start complaining that the front office is playing the "service time"" game.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Isn't that Castro's role?

Castro can handle CF/2B/3B better than Gordon can. I'm assuming they'll already use Castro most days.