Twins to Sign Veteran Free Agent First Baseman Carlos Santana

[Fatbat]

3 minutes ago, Linus said:

This typifies why I don’t like the trade. We traded away quality and got back quantity. Any free agent signing for $5 million is by definition a nothing sandwich. 

Im going to reserve judgement until the end of ‘24.  There are quality parts to the trade but could be overshadowed by failure to launch a championship run. 

[jmlease1]

I look at this move and think, "It's...fine?" Santana hits lefties pretty well and plays a quality 1B, so as a platoon option he's not bad. He's not a black hole against RHP either, so he doesn't need to get subbed out for every pitching change. But he's turning 38 shortly and age is undefeated. My biggest concern is that this franchise won't be able to move on from him if he struggles out the gate or even if he falls off the cliff by June (the Gallo Effect); we've seen them get hung up on the Sunk Cost Fallacy before.

While moving in the younger players last year was highly effective for this team, there is something to be said for a) having those players earn their opportunities rather than get them on scholarship, and b) not relying on them to be your first-order depth. The team's depth last season was a real strength for the club, and 2 years ago their lack of depth and quality options to replace players struck down with injury ruined the season (which started out quite promisingly). I think the decision-making of the FO has shown a desire not to get caught out like they were in 2022 and make sure they have veteran depth available.

Solano is younger and might have been even cheaper, but I'm unconvinced that he's going to be better. Santana is clearly the better defensive player at 1B, and Solano's positional flexibility is more on paper than in reality now (and not as much of a need for the Twins since we still have Farmer and Castro to cover infield spots). Would I have been willing to roll with Miranda as the primary backup/partner for Kirilloff? I would have been ok with that if the $$ had been rolled into pitching help. But at this point I'm not interested in overpaying to add another reliever, and if the team wasn't going to be able to add another starter...this seems fine?

I hope Santana is ok with not being an everyday player now, because he really shouldn't be. He shouldn't take ABs away from guys like Kirilloff or Julien against RHP. And maybe consistent rest will keep him healthy and performing well.

It's a 1 year deal for a guy who has a potential fit in a specific role and has a reputation for being good in the clubhouse, so it almost can't be that bad of a move. Could they have done better if they'd moved early? maybe, but we are where we are.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You are forgetting they had $30M in BAM Money which is 20% of what they spent last year.  More importantly, market size may reflect earning potential, but earning potential does not pay the bills.  If a team in the 12th largest market generates the same amount of revenue as a team in the 18th largest market, they run out of money at the exact same time.  Every adult here knows that a budget is based on income.   This measure is a desperate attempt to come up with something to justify the Twins should spend more.  It makes absolutely no sense and fans know this but use this logic anyway.  

If the Twins ownership can't generate revenue equivalent to their market size they should probably sell to someone who knows how to run the business better. Or, am I just supposed to accept continued incompetence and gladly hand over public subsidies? Part of the deal handing them public money to build Target Field was they were supposed to spend it to field a competitive team. If they refuse to do that I have every right to call them out on their deception. That money had strings attached to it. If they don't like that arrangement they can slash payrolls and give back the public money.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Well, its a low wattage move.  Good defensive first baseman that is the righty platoon split with Kiriloff.  Will bring knowledge and leadership, and defensive value.  Can fill in at first base with good defense.  I am not expecting his numbers to jump.  If we can get 1 to 2 war it will be worth it.  It looks like a better signing than Gallo.  

It tells me we literally have no money to spend other than the $1 million ish filler signings.  You use the money from the trade to sign Santana.   If we want any more improvement for this team it will have to come from the trade side.  

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Some people are half full types, and I won't apologize for being one of them. The above is the equivalent of 'half empty' thinking. So the 'nice 32 year old relief pitcher had one year of success' - which happened to be last year, and it was very successful, and done in high leverage situations for a play-off contending team. The one-time slugging first baseman/DH who should help more as a coach' had a WAR last year that would have been third best on the Twins - and he would have led them in RBIs by 20. Given what may be new-found revenue, they also may not be done. Meanwhile, no additional value is provided for what should be full seasons by very productive rookies from last year. Yes, the starting pitching isn't as strong, but you hit as well as pitch. I believe this year's offense will be much improved over last year. All they have to replace offensively is the half year of Polanco and the full year of Taylor, which doesn't strike me as a heavy lift.

Several great points. I will add that the 2nd half of ‘23 had better hitting than the first half when the young guys got more opportunities. Thats a trend that the FO is leaning on to continue.

[saviking]

Is this a good move? Time will tell, but I like it much better than Gallo last year and better than resigning Salono ..

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

If the Twins ownership can't generate revenue equivalent to their market size they should probably sell to someone who knows how to run the business better. Or, am I just supposed to accept continued incompetence and gladly hand over public subsidies? Part of the deal handing them public money to build Target Field was they were supposed to spend it to field a competitive team. If they refuse to do that I have every right to call them out on their deception. That money had strings attached to it. If they don't like that arrangement they can slash payrolls and give back the public money.

Just curious have they or have they not put a competitive team on the field basically every year since 2017, record of 538-494.  I would guess the front office hates the budget constraints as much as anyone.  We will see, in a year with long term signed tv/streaming deal, what we look like on the budget side moving forward.  However, saying the Twins haven't been competitive,  or doing a very good side on the farm side, is extremely short sighted on your front.  

[wabene]

I'm not so sure they are done. I think it would be prudent to reserve judgement until spring training starts. Heck even a few days into spring training.

 

The CS signing probably signals that Miranda's comment about feeling good only some days means he still may not be right. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

I agree with your general perspective, but Gallo wasn't struggling at the start of the year - he was their best hitter. It's a lot harder to 'back off' a player when they had put up the early numbers that Gallo did. They eventually did. For all the complaining about him (mostly legitimate), he was good defensively and put up a league average OPS (power hitting helps with that) and a 101 OPS+.

Gallo didn’t displace anybody in ‘23 ……so, they may have spent $5M more than everyone would have liked. It was a risk & he was pretty good well into May. After July 15 it was obvious he was just around for defensive insurance & his flexibility defensively. He had no shot at the Playoff roster but they didn’t want to release him because he could defend across the OF & play a good 1B. They were paying him either way and couldn’t option him. They kept him in September with the roster expansion and on October 1st they tipped their hat and removed him from the 26 man. It was frustrating to watch but he actually brought value most of the time (not defending 3K’s per game!) with some surprise HR’s and a great glove.

[jmlease1]

It's also important to remember that the 26-man roster is the biggest sticking point for signings now, not the 40-man. We are going to be running 13 position players (I don't really agree with that; I think there's more value to another position player than a pitcher who might only throw 1 inning in a week, but they're not changing that philosophy) so in order to add another guy we're going to have to drop someone. After adding Santana, the bottom two guys are Gordon and Farmer. Farmer isn't going to get cut; he's got real value as a RH bat off the bench who can slot into many positions and be effective defensively. Gordon doesn't have options left, so adding someone to his spot means we have to either quickly deal him or lose him for nothing. Miranda has the last spot, but he has options still and is coming off a significant injury, so moving Santana into his slot on the 26-man makes a fair amount of sense.

I like this fit better than the Gallo move last season, and it's half the price. I like the options we have for dealing with injuries in house right now; there are quite a few young players who look to be ready or close to it who can step in all over the field, which I like. I just hope Carlos still has one good season of lefty mashing left in him. If he can turn in an OPS over .800 against lefties tis season and play good defense at 1B (and maybe teach Kirilloff some tricks there?) then the signing turns out well. If he's cooked, can't turn in an OPS much over .700 (or worse) against LHP, gets nicked up a bunch and can't play, and turns into a statue at 1B...at least it's only a 1 year deal and there are options in the minors.

[JD-TWINS]

10 minutes ago, wabene said:

I'm not so sure they are done. I think it would be prudent to reserve judgement until spring training starts. Heck even a few days into spring training.

 

The CS signing probably signals that Miranda's comment about feeling good only some days means he still may not be right. 

Santana’s the insurance policy needed - his blah year in ‘23 stacks up as even to, or a little better, than Miranda’s 2022……..and he’s way better defensively. Just makes sense to establish a floor for offensive expectations with some potential for better results when mixed into a better line-up.

Miranda’s WAR in ‘22, with roughly 440 AB’s, was 1.0. Santana’s WAR in ‘23, with roughly 550 AB’s, was 2.7. He hit 23 HR’s last year. He plays every day if needed. Seems to be a no brainer!

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

It's also important to remember that the 26-man roster is the biggest sticking point for signings now, not the 40-man. We are going to be running 13 position players (I don't really agree with that; I think there's more value to another position player than a pitcher who might only throw 1 inning in a week, but they're not changing that philosophy) so in order to add another guy we're going to have to drop someone. After adding Santana, the bottom two guys are Gordon and Farmer. Farmer isn't going to get cut; he's got real value as a RH bat off the bench who can slot into many positions and be effective defensively. Gordon doesn't have options left, so adding someone to his spot means we have to either quickly deal him or lose him for nothing. Miranda has the last spot, but he has options still and is coming off a significant injury, so moving Santana into his slot on the 26-man makes a fair amount of sense.

I like this fit better than the Gallo move last season, and it's half the price. I like the options we have for dealing with injuries in house right now; there are quite a few young players who look to be ready or close to it who can step in all over the field, which I like. I just hope Carlos still has one good season of lefty mashing left in him. If he can turn in an OPS over .800 against lefties tis season and play good defense at 1B (and maybe teach Kirilloff some tricks there?) then the signing turns out well. If he's cooked, can't turn in an OPS much over .700 (or worse) against LHP, gets nicked up a bunch and can't play, and turns into a statue at 1B...at least it's only a 1 year deal and there are options in the minors.

Farmer & Santana are the two depth guys for the infield. Miranda has essentially zero chance out of Spring Training to play for the Twins - he may play somewhere else?

Santana has missed only a couple weeks since 2014 due to injury and Farmer was available every day last year other than the few weeks out after getting hit in the face.

Santana has experience & no mental issues with being DH. Sound defender at 1B.

2 catchers…………that’s 8 on the dirt.

Wallner - Buxton/Castro - Kepler………Gordon or Martin or FA signing of Duvall for the 5th spot. I can’t see Larnach because he can’t add depth in CF. Larnach could make it if RAKING in Spring Training since Martin has options, so he could be up & down as Buxton’s availability goes up & down.

Good problems - position players seem set & if they add Duvall, with Martin as his back-up from St. paul, it would be fantastic.

[Major League Ready]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If the Twins ownership can't generate revenue equivalent to their market size they should probably sell to someone who knows how to run the business better. Or, am I just supposed to accept continued incompetence and gladly hand over public subsidies? Part of the deal handing them public money to build Target Field was they were supposed to spend it to field a competitive team. If they refuse to do that I have every right to call them out on their deception. That money had strings attached to it. If they don't like that arrangement they can slash payrolls and give back the public money.

I think giving public money to organizations that can pay employees hundreds of millions is absurd but this has very little to do with the relevance of expecting a team with below average revenue to have a league average payroll.   In addition, market size does have some correlation to market potential but alone is a rather weak indication of revenue potential.  Are you in possession of a rather in depth marketing study we don't know about.  That's what it would take to make any sort of credible statement as to how good a job they are doing.  I expect fanatics ignore anything that does not support whatever they are fanatical about but it reaches a point of absurdity when adults ignore revenue when making an argument about spending.   

[Blyleven2011]

This is a better addition  than last year's signing of Gallo  , even at 37 Santana should still be a good depth piece  ...

But I don't understand why they don't value our #9 rated farm system and promote from within  , yes we are short handed at first base in the minors  but there is still choices there that would probably be as good as Santana  ...

I do like the signing though  ...

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Santana’s WAR in ‘23, with roughly 550 AB’s, was 2.7. He hit 23 HR’s last year. He plays every day if needed. Seems to be a no brainer!

Santana might be the starting 1B for most of the season. The most likely outcome for Miranda and Kirilloff is more injury plagued disappointment.

[1985Fan]

I would rather they had given Miranda, Severino, and Goodrum a chance at platooning or outright winning first base job. They must not believe all of the rosy health reports on Kirilloff. If age catches up with Santana, we’ll be stuck watching him struggle as this FO doesn’t admit mistakes and cut bait when it isn’t working. Gallo was the worst example of that. I’d rather watch Miranda or Severino struggle thinking that they’re at least learning from their failure and can turn it around at any minute, rather than watching a slow painful age related decline with no hope of recovery. 

[Jeff K]

11 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Pretty much takes Donny Barrels out of consideration.

On the position player side, adding a MAT or someone like him could happen, I guess. The largest hole in the position player side is a right handed hitter OF capable of playing center. Castro is a switch hitter and was pretty bad versus left handed pitching last year. Signing another OF would pretty much eliminate Gordon IMHO. 

I would have been fine signing Solano rather than Santana.  Not unhappy with Santana, but Solano seemingly added more versatility.  I kind of think the Twins are done with their moves until the trade deadline.  I  hope I'm wrong.

[hitterscount]

Living in WI I watch a lot of Brewers games. Santana was more than seviceable. Major leauge approach at the plate and  better than average defense. At somepoint age will be a factor, but this is a decent signing for 1-year. 

The talks about Kirloff still recovering are a red flag. They need a long term solution, this buys them a year to see if Miranda or anyone else is capable to handle those duties next year.  

[RpR]

59 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I hope Santana is ok with not being an everyday player now, because he really shouldn't be. He shouldn't take ABs away from guys like Kirilloff or Julien against RHP. And maybe consistent rest will keep him healthy and performing well.

It's a 1 year deal for a guy who has a potential fit in a specific role and has a reputation for being good in the clubhouse, so it almost can't be that bad of a move. Could they have done better if they'd moved early? maybe, but we are where we are.

I hope he is considered the every day First Baseman to stay away from Kirilloff and Juliens lousy fielding skills.

They are not good enough to play every day.

[RpR]

13 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

I would rather they had given Miranda, Severino, and Goodrum a chance at platooning or outright winning first base job. They must not believe all of the rosy health reports on Kirilloff. If age catches up with Santana, we’ll be stuck watching him struggle as this FO doesn’t admit mistakes and cut bait when it isn’t working. Gallo was the worst example of that. I’d rather watch Miranda or Severino struggle thinking that they’re at least learning from their failure and can turn it around at any minute, rather than watching a slow painful age related decline with no hope of recovery. 

AA or AAA is for struggling, that is  not supposed to be part of a reason a Major League team loses.

[Riverbrian]

I'm Ok with this... I'm not over the moon about it. He's a good bat but he is not the big bat I was hoping for. 

I do like his strikeout rates and 20 home run potential. 

It's been touched on a couple of times in this thread. My only concern is the escape hatch if needed. The Twins have shown that they will hang on to under performing vets. 

I hope we don't need that escape hatch. Welcome to Minnesota Carlos!

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

It's also important to remember that the 26-man roster is the biggest sticking point for signings now, not the 40-man. We are going to be running 13 position players (I don't really agree with that; I think there's more value to another position player than a pitcher who might only throw 1 inning in a week, but they're not changing that philosophy) so in order to add another guy we're going to have to drop someone. After adding Santana, the bottom two guys are Gordon and Farmer. Farmer isn't going to get cut; he's got real value as a RH bat off the bench who can slot into many positions and be effective defensively. Gordon doesn't have options left, so adding someone to his spot means we have to either quickly deal him or lose him for nothing. Miranda has the last spot, but he has options still and is coming off a significant injury, so moving Santana into his slot on the 26-man makes a fair amount of sense.

I like this fit better than the Gallo move last season, and it's half the price. I like the options we have for dealing with injuries in house right now; there are quite a few young players who look to be ready or close to it who can step in all over the field, which I like. I just hope Carlos still has one good season of lefty mashing left in him. If he can turn in an OPS over .800 against lefties tis season and play good defense at 1B (and maybe teach Kirilloff some tricks there?) then the signing turns out well. If he's cooked, can't turn in an OPS much over .700 (or worse) against LHP, gets nicked up a bunch and can't play, and turns into a statue at 1B...at least it's only a 1 year deal and there are options in the minors.

Current 13 position player lineup heading into spring training:

Infield (6): Lewis, Correa, Julien, Kiriloff, Santana, Farmer

Outfield (4): Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, Castro

Catcher (2): Jeffers, Vasquez

Super Utility (1): Gordon 

First Injury Replacement Call-Ups (6): Martin, Miranda, Larnach, Severino, Keirsey and Camargo (catcher). It will depend on who is hot and who gets hurt.

Gordon does not need to be released quite yet.

That, my friends, is what the FO has in mind for your ‘25 Minnesota Twins - those 19 players. And we will probably need all of them at some point.

Personally, I like it and, as a position player lineup, it should be favored to win the AL Central and compete in the playoffs.

Now, if we added Soler……

[stringer bell]

2 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Current 13 position player lineup heading into spring training:

Infield (6): Lewis, Correa, Julien, Kiriloff, Santana, Farmer

Outfield (4):: Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, Castro

Catcher (2): Jeffers, Vasquez

Super Utility (1): Gordon 

First Injury Replacement Call-Ups (6): Martin, Miranda, Larnach, Severino, Keirsey and Camargo (catcher). It will depend on who is hot and who gets hurt.

Gordon does not need to be released quite yet.

That, my friends, is what the FO has in mind for your ‘25 Minnesota Twins - those 19 players.

Now, if we added Soler……

Nit pick,--I would consider Castro the super-utility player and Gordon the fourth outfielder. If the Twins salary budget is $125M-$140M with the reduced Bally money, they do have somewhere around $5M-$15M to spend. It would be tight getting Soler for that money, but adding Michael A Taylor or the salary of a decent pitcher is possible. 

Where and when does Gordon play? I don't see much room unless he is the primary sub for Buxton (I'd prefer Castro). 

[Nashvilletwin]

11 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Nit pick,--I would consider Castro the super-utility player and Gordon the fourth outfielder. If the Twins salary budget is $125M-$140M with the reduced Bally money, they do have somewhere around $5M-$15M to spend. It would be tight getting Soler for that money, but adding Michael A Taylor or the salary of a decent pitcher is possible. 

Where and when does Gordon play? I don't see much room unless he is the primary sub for Buxton (I'd prefer Castro). 

Re Castro - he’s the primary CF sub and probably LF as well (if Kepler needs a break, Wallner will shift to RF). So Castro is going to get plenty of innings in the OF, inclusive of late inning PH for Wallner or Kepler against lefties. 

With that role, Farmer still on the team and with another infielder just added (Santana),  I do not see many innings in the IF for Castro. He’s the fourth outfielder and will probably get into nearly every game in some fashion in that role.

Gordon gets the fewest innings, mostly in the OF when Castro is in for Buxton and Kepler or Wallner need spelling or late inning pinch running as well. But, you are correct, probably not many innings in the IF unless via that pinch running role.

[jorgenswest]

The 2022 Gordon is one of their top 9 hitters against right handed pitching (OPS 793). I think there is a good chance that he is very helpful to this team. His contract won’t keep them from giving some of the AAA depth an opportunity.

I am more concerned about the decisions to retain acquire players at an age where decline is a real possibility and might be retained. After two months of the season if Santana, Farmer or DeSclafini have dropped off they need to release them. They are really betting on spreading the dollars on those three aging players rather than getting one better player with the dollars and filling the other two spots from within. I hope the bet pays off. 

[Fatbat]

Just imagine how good we can be if everyone is healthy for a vast majority of ‘24.  We have depth like ‘23, healthy vets, young developing stars and talented prospects on the way. Im a fan of the roster changes in the last week!

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The 2022 Gordon is one of their top 9 hitters against right handed pitching (OPS 793). I think there is a good chance that he is very helpful to this team. His contract won’t keep them from giving some of the AAA depth an opportunity.

A year later, the Twins had three outfielders beat Nick's number versus right handed pitching (Castro .803, Wallner .970 and Kepler .832). Injuries do happen and perhaps Gordon will get opportunities, but there is no more guarantee that he will duplicate that .793 OPS than any of the three from 2023. I don't see him as useful on the 2024 team as it is constructed right now. 

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The 2022 Gordon is one of their top 9 hitters against right handed pitching (OPS 793). I think there is a good chance that he is very helpful to this team. His contract won’t keep them from giving some of the AAA depth an opportunity.

I am more concerned about the decisions to retain acquire players at an age where decline is a real possibility and might be retained. After two months of the season if Santana, Farmer or DeSclafini have dropped off they need to release them. They are really betting on spreading the dollars on those three aging players rather than getting one better player with the dollars and filling the other two spots from within. I hope the bet pays off. 

Yep... 6 players on expiring deals. They are not the future... they are the now. 

If they can't perform now. There is no future to make them worth waiting for. 

 

[akmanak]

Gallo 2.0, clearly the Twins love doing signings like this.  For most of the fans they will pump their fists in agreement with this trade due to his past, but others who understand statistics and his overall decline will just punch the wall with their fists knowing that the Twins have no plans at actually signing a high caliber starter due to them being cheap.

[rv78]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I think giving public money to organizations that can pay employees hundreds of millions is absurd but this has very little to do with the relevance of expecting a team with below average revenue to have a league average payroll.   In addition, market size does have some correlation to market potential but alone is a rather weak indication of revenue potential.  Are you in possession of a rather in depth marketing study we don't know about.  That's what it would take to make any sort of credible statement as to how good a job they are doing.  I expect fanatics ignore anything that does not support whatever they are fanatical about but it reaches a point of absurdity when adults ignore revenue when making an argument about spending.   

A LOT of revenue has to do with the product you produce. In 1988, a year after the Twins 1987 World Series title they drew over 3 Million fans. It was a great product on the field to watch and the fans responded. The first 2 years in Target Field they also drew over 3M fans. Why because people wanted to see the new ballpark. Now the Twins have a hard time even drawing 2 million fans. Sometimes you get what you pay for when revenue is to be considered. Let's see, having 1 million more fans come to games wouldn't COST anything extra but it would generate ummm..... $50 per ticket plus another $20 in concessions = $70M a year. Not to mention the extra profits for all of the businesses around Target Field and maybe a TV deal that someone would actually be interested in since they provide that TOP quality product that is required for that type of deal. Is NOT putting the best product on the field that you can really important? You best believe it, but they don't care and it shows.