Is THIS the Year for Jorge Alcala?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Guess who’s back? Back again? Jorge’s back! Tell a friend! Can 2024 finally be the season we’ve been waiting for Jorge Alcala to emerge?

At the end of the 2019 season, the Minnesota Twins designated Marcos Diplan to make room for Jorge Alcala on the 40-man roster. He pitched in two games to end the year and flashed stuff that made him an enticing option for 2020. Alcala posted a 2.63 ERA during the Covid-shortened year, but it was just a 24-inning sample size.

Then things started to go downhill.

2021 saw Alcala post a good-but-not-great 3.92 ERA with a 4.06 FIP. His strikeouts dipped, and he started allowing more homers. Hoping to see another step forward in 2022, it failed to launch. Pitching in just two games, Alcala had a wasted season and was looking forward to 2023. It seemed like he would be ready to go out of the gate, but after being shut down on May 14th, Alcala didn’t again surface in the big leagues until October 1st and was left off the postseason roster.

Having been on the 40-man roster for five seasons, Alcala has pitched just 105 innings across 90 games, of which 59 games took place during 2021 when the Twins lost 89 games. Because hope springs eternal, optimism is again there for the only remaining piece of the Ryan Pressly trade. After pitching 8 2/3 innings in Dominican Winter League action this offseason, Alcala boasted a 14/4 K/BB against some impressive competition.

There was a time when Alcala was dreamed on as a dominant reliever instead of Jhoan Duran. When Minnesota was grooming the latter to work in the rotation, Alcala was looked at as a guy who could quickly contribute in relief. Although Gilberto Celestino had the big bonus when signed by the Astros, plenty was made about Alcala being the get of that trade. His stuff was expected to play up in the bullpen, and the velocity was something everyone coveted.

ZiPS projects Alcala for a 4.35 ERA and a 44/16 K/BB across 42 innings in 2023. Steamer sees him a bit better with a 4.14 ERA across 58 innings with a 9.3 K/9. While the ERA numbers may be conservative, it’s a good bet that if either of the inning thresholds are hit, the Twins will have a decent reliever on their hands. The significance of those totals suggests that he would be both effective and healthy, each of which we haven’t seen in years.

Coming into the year with bullpen uncertainty at the bottom of the totem pole, the more arms that emerge, the better positioned Rocco Baldelli will be. Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Caleb Thielbar aren’t going to be deployed in the early innings, but having another Brock Stewart success story happen in 2024 would be great to see.

Alcala’s velocity has not been the 97 mph he averaged on his fastball in 2020/21 in either of the past two seasons. Health certainly contributes to that, and leaning back into an ability to blow the ball by hitters would be a welcomed development. The decline in velocity has translated to higher sinker and changeup usage in recent seasons, but transitioning back to a fastball and slider pitcher could also reflect how his body feels.

Already eligible for arbitration for the second time this year, Alcala didn’t see a bump in salary from 2023. If he wants to push for his first million instead of being a non-tender before becoming a free agent in 2026, then the outcome of this year is everything. The Twins certainly expected more from a guy they have had on the 40-man for so long, and I’d bet Alcala hoped for better from himself as well.

This may be the season we see it.

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[roger]

Haven't seen any games this spring, but he seems to have had four clean outings.  Haven't seen any reports on him.  Curious if his velocity has increased? 

Expect ZiPs and all those other projecting sites have it wrong.  He is either going to do very well which would see him putting up much better numbers than you show above.  If he isn't, he won't be pitching a lot for the Twins.

Based on absolutely zero knowledge, I am guessing/hoping he is gonna do well and just might be this year's Stewart.  And if he does, the Twins pen will become an absolute shut-down force.

[JD-TWINS]

He seems, on paper, to be in a battle with Staumont and Weiss for the 8th spot in the Pen.

Okert - Jackson

Thielbar - Topa

Jax - Stewart

Duran

This seems to be the 6th - 9th……..Alcala could step in anywhere if his command is right. Fingers crossed!

[C-Gangster]

Heck no the day we called him up last year the last game he let them hit a homerun

[Fatbat]

Looking at the small sample of ST and winter ball, it seems that Alcala is finally healthy again and pounding the strike zone. If that remains all season, expect a break out year and another successful pitcher to develop in our system. Finally. 

[Parfigliano]

Im happy with a healthy year 50-60 IP and 3.5 ERA.

[Doctor Gast]

IMO health has been the big problem in Alcala's career & good health will be the factor in his success. So far so good, I'm expecting a good season.

[stringer bell]

27 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO health has been the big problem in Alcala's career & good health will be the factor in his success. So far so good, I'm expecting a good season.

His performance in the only year he put up a reasonable amount of innings was just okay and IIRC he really struggled with left handed hitters and home runs. It seems to be that he both needs to be healthy and make the adjustments to keep lefties at bay. 

Again, from memory, Alcalá had too many deep counts and was forced to groove too many pitches in the "whomp em" zone. I think he's got the stuff to be very, very good, but every team has several guys like that nowadays. 

[bean5302]

Alcala has options, plenty of them. It puts him as the odd man out for opening day without injuries or maybe the Twins not liking what they're seeing from Topa.

We've got quite a few of relievers Falvey picked up from the Island of Misfit Toys, and not all of them are likely to find homes on the 26 man. Plus injuries are inevitable so I'm sure Alcala will get some opportunities this year, I just don't think it'll be opening day.

[stringer bell]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Alcala has options, plenty of them. It puts him as the odd man out for opening day without injuries or maybe the Twins not liking what they're seeing from Topa.

We've got quite a few of relievers Falvey picked up from the Island of Misfit Toys, and not all of them are likely to find homes on the 26 man. Plus injuries are inevitable so I'm sure Alcala will get some opportunities this year, I just don't think it'll be opening day.

I’d put Staumont as the biggest suspect among those projected and several guys have been really good so far. 

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I’d put Staumont as the biggest suspect among those projected and several guys have been really good so far. 

Staumont technically does have an option left, but I'm not sure the Twins will exercise it unless they feel he just needs more time to adjust from the TOS surgery.

[stringer bell]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Staumont technically does have an option left, but I'm not sure the Twins will exercise it unless they feel he just needs more time to adjust from the TOS surgery.

Why wouldn't they if it is there to use? IMHO, Staumont was never as good as Topa was last year, and if he has an option to use, they might as well use it if he isn't as good as someone else (Alcalá, Funderburk, maybe one of the non-roster guys).

[DocBauer]

I keep thinking the last half of 2021 was when Alcala really hit his stride. But according the the OP, it was 2020. But my memory and a Baseball Reference look up tells me it was the last half of 2021 where he seemed to really figure out his change up and that made all the difference in the world. First half of 2021 was a 4.67 ERA and 8.0K per 9. His second half was a 2.88 ERA and 10.8 K per 9. That was when the change became a real weapon and he looked to be a bullpen fixture for the next few years. 

And then came 2yrs of injuries.

Late last year, it was reported he was throwing in the 97-98mph range again. His winter performance, though SSS, looked really good. So far so good this spring. With other veterans brought in and him still having an option, it's possible he opens at St Paul no matter what. But I don't think that last spot is set in the pen just yet either. Regardless, I think he's going to step forward and grab a spot and never let it go...provided the good health is for real and maintains. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Staumont technically does have an option left, but I'm not sure the Twins will exercise it unless they feel he just needs more time to adjust from the TOS surgery.

 

46 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Why wouldn't they if it is there to use? IMHO, Staumont was never as good as Topa was last year, and if he has an option to use, they might as well use it if he isn't as good as someone else (Alcalá, Funderburk, maybe one of the non-roster guys).

Depending on the exact nature of Staumont's unreadiness, perhaps they could use the (non 60-day) IL, followed by whatever number of days of rehab allowed, if they want to preserve the value of his minor league options.

OTOH the value of options for a 30-year old pitcher is not as high as for a guy in his mid-twenties, so maybe it's not worth playing those games.

[Oldgoat_MN]

The Twins have loaded their potential bullpen with pitchers most teams don't want.  Looking at the stats of these young men the Twins are looking to catch someone having a surprising turn around year.

If Alcala shows promise there will be no one really in his way to the MLB bullpen. 

Wishing him well 

[The Mad King]

After last seasons injury I've kind of assumed he's done. I hope I'm wrong.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

His performance in the only year he put up a reasonable amount of innings was just okay and IIRC he really struggled with left handed hitters and home runs. It seems to be that he both needs to be healthy and make the adjustments to keep lefties at bay. 

Again, from memory, Alcalá had too many deep counts and was forced to groove too many pitches in the "whomp em" zone. I think he's got the stuff to be very, very good, but every team has several guys like that nowadays. 

This is my view as well. Alcala has gotten a lot of love from TD for a guy that has never really performed. He had a good two month stretch a few years ago but hasn’t been good the rest of the time. And you are correct - lefties eat him up. But hope springs eternal - would surely be nice to get something from the Pressly deal. 

[rv78]

28 minutes ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

The Twins have loaded their potential bullpen with pitchers most teams don't want.  Looking at the stats of these young men the Twins are looking to catch someone having a surprising turn around year.

If Alcala shows promise there will be no one really in his way to the MLB bullpen. 

Wishing him well 

Anytime you load up on chances, you increase your odds that one of them works out in your favor, which has become the "Twins way" with this FO. Most all of their new bullpen arms are one year wonders or HR prone. Looks like clear sailing for a healthy Alcala.

[SaberNerd]

5 hours ago, roger said:

Haven't seen any games this spring, but he seems to have had four clean outings.  Haven't seen any reports on him.  Curious if his velocity has increased? 

Expect ZiPs and all those other projecting sites have it wrong.  He is either going to do very well which would see him putting up much better numbers than you show above.  If he isn't, he won't be pitching a lot for the Twins.

Based on absolutely zero knowledge, I am guessing/hoping he is gonna do well and just might be this year's Stewart.  And if he does, the Twins pen will become an absolute shut-down force.

His velo has been up 1.5mph from his average last year.  

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

This is my view as well. Alcala has gotten a lot of love from TD for a guy that has never really performed. He had a good two month stretch a few years ago but hasn’t been good the rest of the time. And you are correct - lefties eat him up. But hope springs eternal - would surely be nice to get something from the Pressly deal. 

This.

Idk if it's the Pressly effect, or what, but even that good stretch you mentioned came after he was unusable for the previous two months and demoted. 

[SteveLV]

Got smacked around by the Yankee minor leaguers today.....

[Hubie29]

3 hours ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

The Twins have loaded their potential bullpen with pitchers most teams don't want.  Looking at the stats of these young men the Twins are looking to catch someone having a surprising turn around year.

If Alcala shows promise there will be no one really in his way to the MLB bullpen. 

Wishing him well 

I agree 100%.  We have a bullpen of reclamation projects and guys other teams were willing to get rid of. Don't know where all the thoughts of a shutdown bullpen are coming from! This year is no different than any other year.  Pick up a rehab guy here, trade for this mediocre guy there, and hope other guys are ready to take the next step. This team has a history of questionable bullpen, and I don't see any difference this year. 

[stringer bell]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

 

Depending on the exact nature of Staumont's unreadiness, perhaps they could use the (non 60-day) IL, followed by whatever number of days of rehab allowed, if they want to preserve the value of his minor league options.

OTOH the value of options for a 30-year old pitcher is not as high as for a guy in his mid-twenties, so maybe it's not worth playing those games.

Another consideration his Staumont’s service time. He can be optioned for only the first three months of the year before he hits the five-year threshold wherein he can only be optioned with his consent, so if his final option isn’t used in the first ninety (or so) days of the season, it is null and void. 

[DocBauer]

3 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Another consideration his Staumont’s service time. He can be optioned for only the first three months of the year before he hits the five-year threshold wherein he can only be optioned with his consent, so if his final option isn’t used in the first ninety (or so) days of the season, it is null and void. 

That changes things a bit for sure. I kind of like. But I rather like Ash's idea of him going to the IL if he's not fully recovered yet. I.E. he is technically recovering from surgery. If velocity isn't back yet, etc, could he be placed on the IL to continue some rehab work, get in to rehab games at AAA, and play the wait and see game and not use the option?

Not sure as to how some of the rules in that regard work. But he was really good with KC before the injuries happened. And he's not exactly old. It would be nice to be able to give him more time, if possible, to get right.

[stringer bell]

13 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

I agree 100%.  We have a bullpen of reclamation projects and guys other teams were willing to get rid of. Don't know where all the thoughts of a shutdown bullpen are coming from! This year is no different than any other year.  Pick up a rehab guy here, trade for this mediocre guy there, and hope other guys are ready to take the next step. This team has a history of questionable bullpen, and I don't see any difference this year. 

Topa was a key trade piece and seemed well regarded, Stewart broke out (limited innings), Jax was pretty good and Durán is elite. Add Thielbar and Okert from the left side and that’s a pretty good start for the BP. 

They’ve signed several relievers who have had some success to fill out the ‘pen. All the guys don’t have to produce because there is depth. It could go south, but there are lots of viable options. 

[wabene]

28 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

I agree 100%.  We have a bullpen of reclamation projects and guys other teams were willing to get rid of. Don't know where all the thoughts of a shutdown bullpen are coming from! This year is no different than any other year.  Pick up a rehab guy here, trade for this mediocre guy there, and hope other guys are ready to take the next step. This team has a history of questionable bullpen, and I don't see any difference this year. 

Apparently many see things quite differently.

https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/news/fangraphs-projects-twins-to-have-second-best-bullpen-in-baseball

I like the way they have packed the pen this year. Much better than last year. Of course with Varland, Paddack and Stewart coming back, the pen looked pretty good by the playoffs. 

Alcala can look good at times, he's got electric stuff. Can he put it together for the Twins this year? I look forward to watching him when he gets his inevitable chance. 

[DocBauer]

21 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

I agree 100%.  We have a bullpen of reclamation projects and guys other teams were willing to get rid of. Don't know where all the thoughts of a shutdown bullpen are coming from! This year is no different than any other year.  Pick up a rehab guy here, trade for this mediocre guy there, and hope other guys are ready to take the next step. This team has a history of questionable bullpen, and I don't see any difference this year. 

But honestly, how else do you build a pen without throwing tons of $ to FA and hope they don't become injured or flame out?

SOME relievers are simply relievers almost from the day they're drafted, but that's a small minority. Most are starters that are converted at some point, often at the AAA and ML level. On the current roster that's true of Duran, Jax, and Stewart. Thielbar was a mediocre SP who was pretty much out of baseball when he got a second chance and has thrived. Alcala and the very interesting Funderburk are former starters. Topa has a nice track record at the ML level as does Okert. I don't see them as cast offs.

And if you look at the history of Twins' pens, there are many other good examples I'm not going to list. But think of former Twin Liam Hendricks. He washed out as a SP, disappeared, and then reimerged as a an excellent closer. You don't find a Hendricks, or a Stewart, until or unless you take fliers on some arms and see what you have.

I don't think for a moment that every arms signed by the Twins are going to come through. Some of those fliers are scheduled to be at AAA and aren't even on the 40 man. Jay Jackson is someone who rebuilt his career oversees, came back, and performed well for the Jay's last year in a SSS. If he does well with the Twins, do we care how he got here?

What you're looking for...and to be honest every team does this...is hopefully 1 or 2 finds a year. They might be good for 1 season, or multiple seasons. But the more options you have, the better your odds of success.

 

[Parfigliano]

7 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I’d put Staumont as the biggest suspect among those projected and several guys have been really good so far. 

I'd say C Sands is on pretty thin ice.

[ashbury]

On 3/9/2024 at 5:40 PM, DocBauer said:

What you're looking for...and to be honest every team does this...is hopefully 1 or 2 finds a year.

It's true.  But the trick is to do it without consuming too many major league innings in failed projects.  IMO the Twins aren't quite at the point of having to do it the wrong way, but they're cutting it close.

By my review of the 40-man roster a few weeks ago, these are the pitchers who can't be sent to the minors (service time, or 0 options remaining):

Pablo Lopez
Chris Paddack
Anthony DeSclafani
Brock Stewart
Caleb Thielbar
Steven Okert
Jay Jackson

And these are the optionable pitchers who are locks to come north anyway:

Bailey Ober
Joe Ryan
Griffin Jax
Justin Topa
Jhoan Duran

That's 12, and leaves room for one of these conventionally strong candidates (a month ago):

Jorge Alcala
Kody Funderburk
Josh Staumont
Louie Varland

Anyone who believes one of these is a lock, believes we have our 13, and there's no room for a "find."  Even with just the first 12, there's not a lot of room for maneuvering.  If those four don't make the grade, these are the longer-shots:

Matt Canternino
Brent Headrick
Cole Sands
Josh Winder
Simeon Woods-Richardson
Zack Weiss

If a non-roster invitee makes the cut, then Weiss or Sands probably gets DFA/waived.

Anyway, there's not a ton of wiggle-room for letting a long-shot do his thing.

 

Of course all this is "barring injury", which means it's not really definitive at all. 😀

 

 

 

 

[stringer bell]

17 minutes ago, ashbury said:

It's true.  But the trick is to do it without consuming too many major league innings in failed projects.  IMO the Twins aren't quite at the point of having to do it the wrong way, but they're cutting it close.

By my review of the 40-man roster a few weeks ago, these are the pitchers who can't be sent to the minors (service time, or 0 options remaining):

Pablo Lopez
Chris Paddack
Anthony DeSclafani
Brock Stewart
Caleb Thielbar
Steven Okert
Jay Jackson

And these are the optionable pitchers who are locks to come north anyway:

Bailey Ober
Joe Ryan
Griffin Jax
Justin Topa
Johan Duran

That's 12, and leaves room for one of these conventionally strong candidates (a month ago):

Jorge Alcala
Kody Funderburk
Josh Staumont
Louie Varland

Anyone who believes one of these is a lock, believes we have our 13, and there's no room for a "find."  Even with just the first 12, there's not a lot of room for maneuvering.  If those four don't make the grade, these are the longer-shots:

Matt Canternino
Brent Headrick
Cole Sands
Josh Winder
Simeon Woods-Richardson
Zack Weiss

If a non-roster invitee makes the cut, then Weiss or Sands probably gets DFA/waived.

Anyway, there's not a ton of wiggle-room for letting a long-shot do his thing.

 

Of course all this is "barring injury", which means it's not really definitive at all. 😀

 

 

 

 

Yes, having two spots that can be shuttled would be a better setup. Of course, an injury to one of the locks or out of options types and it is then the optimum situation. BTW, Winder is out until late May so he won't factor into decisions for the first third of the season.