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At the end of the 2019 season, the Minnesota Twins designated Marcos Diplan to make room for Jorge Alcala on the 40-man roster. He pitched in two games to end the year and flashed stuff that made him an enticing option for 2020. Alcala posted a 2.63 ERA during the Covid-shortened year, but it was just a 24-inning sample size.
Then things started to go downhill.
2021 saw Alcala post a good-but-not-great 3.92 ERA with a 4.06 FIP. His strikeouts dipped, and he started allowing more homers. Hoping to see another step forward in 2022, it failed to launch. Pitching in just two games, Alcala had a wasted season and was looking forward to 2023. It seemed like he would be ready to go out of the gate, but after being shut down on May 14th, Alcala didn’t again surface in the big leagues until October 1st and was left off the postseason roster.
Having been on the 40-man roster for five seasons, Alcala has pitched just 105 innings across 90 games, of which 59 took place during 2021 when the Twins lost 89 games. Because hope springs eternal, optimism is again there for the only remaining piece of the Ryan Pressly trade. After pitching 8 2/3 innings in Dominican Winter League action this offseason, Alcala boasted a 14/4 K/BB against some impressive competition.
There was a time when Alcala was dreamed on as a dominant reliever instead of Jhoan Duran. When Minnesota was grooming the latter to work in the rotation, Alcala was looked at as a guy who could quickly contribute in relief. Although Gilberto Celestino had the big bonus when signed by the Astros, plenty was made about Alcala being the get of that trade. His stuff was expected to play up in the bullpen, and the velocity was something everyone coveted.
ZiPS projects Alcala for a 4.35 ERA and a 44/16 K/BB across 42 innings in 2023. Steamer sees him a bit better with a 4.14 ERA across 58 innings with a 9.3 K/9. While the ERA numbers may be conservative, it’s a good bet that if either of the inning thresholds are hit, the Twins will have a decent reliever on their hands. The significance of those totals suggests that he would be both effective and healthy, each of which we haven’t seen in years.
Coming into the year with bullpen uncertainty at the bottom of the totem pole, the more arms that emerge, the better positioned Rocco Baldelli will be. Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Caleb Thielbar aren’t going to be deployed in the early innings, but having another Brock Stewart success story happen in 2024 would be great to see.
Alcala’s velocity has not been the 97 mph he averaged on his fastball in 2020/21 in either of the past two seasons. Health certainly contributes to that, and leaning back into an ability to blow the ball by hitters would be a welcomed development. The decline in velocity has translated to higher sinker and changeup usage in recent seasons, but transitioning back to a fastball and slider pitcher could also reflect how his body feels.
Already eligible for arbitration for the second time this year, Alcala didn’t see a bump in salary from 2023. If he wants to push for his first million instead of being a non-tender before becoming a free agent in 2026, then the outcome of this year is everything. The Twins certainly expected more from a guy they have had on the 40-man for so long, and I’d bet Alcala hoped for better from himself as well.
Minnesota is giving the reliever every opportunity to win a role this spring, but it isn't about being healthy this time around. Baldelli needs to see an arm he can trust to get ready and produce on a moments notice, and throwing strikes during these exhibitions is the ultimate focal point. The stuff plays when it's in the zone, and if Alcala can show command during March, he'll set himself up for an opportunity to get the run his body has held him back from for year.
Minnesota's bullpen would love to add a guy at the peak of what Alcala presumably could be, and this may be the season we see it.
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