Examining the Fringe of the 2024 Twins 40-Man Roster

[Cody Christie]

Teams need depth to survive baseball’s grueling 162-game season. Here are eight players at the back end of the Twins’ 40-man roster and how they can impact the team in 2024.

Image courtesy of Kelley L Cox - USA TODAY Sports

Like many teams, the Twins have prided themselves on building organization depth to continue contending even when injuries present themselves. The Twins have added multiple players to the 40-man roster this winter, including prospects and waiver claims. Each of these players will be projected to impact the team in different ways. Eight players sit at the back of the pecking order on the 40-man roster, but each might be called upon for an essential role in 2024.

Pitchers
Jordan Balazovic, RHP
Balazovic was one of the team’s top starting pitching prospects before a disastrous Triple-A debut in 2022 with an ERA north of 7.50. Last season, he arrived at spring training early to prove he should make the team, but broke his jaw in an incident at a bar. In 2023, Balazovic combined for 70 innings between Triple-A and the big leagues. He struck out more than a batter per inning in St. Paul, but that rate didn’t translate to the Twins. He’s out of minor-league options, so he must prove he can be a reliable reliever or be placed on waivers. 

Matt Canterino, RHP
Like Balazovic, Canterino was once ranked among the team’s top starting prospects. He is returning from Tommy John surgery this season, and the Twins plan on treating him as a starter. During his professional career, Canterino has dominated on the mound, but injuries have limited him to 85 innings. He seems like a prime candidate to move into a bullpen role, and that might be the easiest way for him to impact the Twins this season.

Ryan Jensen, RHP
Earlier this winter, the Twins claimed Jensen off waivers from the Marlins. He’s now in his fourth organization but has yet to debut. As a starting pitcher, he was a top-30 pick in the 2019 MLB Draft by the Cubs. His development stalled because of control issues, so he’s now a reliever. Minnesota hopes to get his walk rate under control because he’s shown an ability to strike batters out and to ratchet up his stuff in short bursts. He has two options remaining, so he can bounce back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues. 

Cole Sands, RHP
Sands was projected as a back-of-the-rotation starter earlier in his professional career before transitioning to a relief role. He’s made 26 big-league appearances, with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. His strikeout rate as a reliever is only a hair over 20%, so he must miss more bats to move into a higher-leverage role. He has one option year remaining, so the 2024 campaign will be vital for him to show his long-term value to the Twins.

Josh Staumont, RHP
Minnesota targeted Staumont earlier this winter, and quickly signed him to a big-league deal for just under $1 million. He is returning from thoracic outlet syndrome, but the Twins believe he can contribute. Staumont has been a dominant reliever for the Royals in recent seasons, so the Twins know him well. He has one option remaining, so he can be sent to the minors if he isn’t fully ready for the start of the season. 

Josh Winder, RHP
Winder has a similar profile to Sands and has one option year remaining. Winder has posted a 4.51 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP in just over 100 big-league innings. He was mainly used as a starter in 2022, when the team struggled with injuries. His strikeout rate has been higher in the minors, so he needs to prove he can attack big-league hitters in 2024.

Position Players
Yunior Severino, 1B
Severino was added to the 40-man roster this offseason after leading the minor leagues in home runs. He’s moved down the defensive spectrum during his professional career, but it’s hard to ignore his numbers from last season. There are multiple players ahead of him on the organizational depth chart, so he will spend most of the season at Triple-A. He will have to hit his way to the big leagues, unless there are a series of injuries to Minnesota’s first base options.

Nick Gordon, UTL
Gordon was one of the bright spots on the 2022 team, with a 111 OPS+ in 136 games. Many were excited to see what he’d do for an encore in 2023, but his season never got off the ground. Instead, Gordon struggled, with a 34 OPS+ before fracturing his leg on a foul tip. He’s out of minor-league options, so he has to make the team coming out of spring. He will serve in a utility role while getting opportunities to play in center field on days when Byron Buxton is at DH.

Which player will have the most significant impact on the Twins in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[dxpavelka]

Everyone gets hung up on the opening day 25 but at the end of the day there are usually at least another dozen who end up making contributions so I would be surprised if more than 2 or three of these guys DON'T contribute with a handful probably doing so in a major way.

[Cory Engelhardt]

If I had to vote/guess today, I could absolutely see Canterino and Staumont playing major parts. The rest are all more hope to me (not that Canterino and Staumont aren’t). If any of the others contribute, great! But I could see most of them in another organization at some point too

[arby58]

It's hard to get too excited about the back end of a 40 man roster. That said, Severino had a big year offensively last year - at both AA and AAA. Brooks Lee is considered one of the team's top prospects, and while he and Severino spent about the same amount of time at AA and AAA last year, Severino was by far the more impactful offensive player at both levels. I know, Lee is better defensively and doesn't strike out as much (and is two years younger) but compare some offensive categories: combined OPS: Severino .898, Lee .808; HRs : Severino 51, Lee 16; RBIs they each had 84; runs Severino 80, Lee 84. Notably, they are both switch hitters, but Lee wasn't very good against LHP last year (.608 OPS versus .860 against RHP). Lee, on the other hand, was practically the same - .901 OPS versus RHP and .889 against LHP. Take a long look at him in spring training.

[mikelink45]

Not an exciting group.  I agree with Cory Englelhardt on Canterino and Staumont.  Balazovic and Winder were so high in my expectations two years ago, but they along with Sands have become mediocre fillers at this point.  

I don't see a hitter getting in, and that includes Gordon who seems to have really dropped from the year before - was that his career year?  His problem is that we have Farmer and Castro and if Buxton does play like he says this year he is not needed. 

[mickster]

44 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Not an exciting group.  I agree with Cory Englelhardt on Canterino and Staumont.  Balazovic and Winder were so high in my expectations two years ago, but they along with Sands have become mediocre fillers at this point.  

I don't see a hitter getting in, and that includes Gordon who seems to have really dropped from the year before - was that his career year?  His problem is that we have Farmer and Castro and if Buxton does play like he says this year he is not needed. 

Agree with all of this.   Much prefer to have Farmer and/or Castro on the roster over Gordon.    

[Cory Engelhardt]

13 minutes ago, mickster said:

Agree with all of this.   Much prefer to have Farmer and/or Castro on the roster over Gordon.    

I'd even add Miranda (if healthy) and Martin.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

If I had to vote/guess today, I could absolutely see Canterino and Staumont playing major parts. The rest are all more hope to me (not that Canterino and Staumont aren’t). If any of the others contribute, great! But I could see most of them in another organization at some point too

Caterino and Staumont are my choices also.  I do like the strength of the Twin's relievers going into 2024. 

[DJL44]

I doubt the 40 man has all of these players on April 15th.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

It's hard to get too excited about the back end of a 40 man roster. That said, Severino had a big year offensively last year - at both AA and AAA. Brooks Lee is considered one of the team's top prospects, and while he and Severino spent about the same amount of time at AA and AAA last year, Severino was by far the more impactful offensive player at both levels. I know, Lee is better defensively and doesn't strike out as much (and is two years younger) but compare some offensive categories: combined OPS: Severino .898, Lee .808; HRs : Severino 51, Lee 16; RBIs they each had 84; runs Severino 80, Lee 84. Notably, they are both switch hitters, but Lee wasn't very good against LHP last year (.608 OPS versus .860 against RHP). Lee, on the other hand, was practically the same - .901 OPS versus RHP and .889 against LHP. Take a long look at him in spring training.

Severino had displayed flashes of huge power at Elizabethton, when he first started with the Twins. In fact, the Elizabethton Twins' GM made it a point to show me an outfield light pole, over which Severino had hit a monster homerun. 

[TopGunn#22]

There could very well be movement on the 40 man before mid-April.  I agree that Canterino and Staumont are head and shoulders above anyone on the list.  When you have a 100 mph fastball and breaking stuff like each of them have, you've got the goods.  It's just a matter of staying healthy and harnessing that stuff.  

[Riverbrian]

Any player on the 40 man roster is very very important. 

If a player is not important... that player should not be on the 40 man roster. 

17 Players had at least 100 AB's last year. 

Last year... the opening day starting 9.

DH-Buxton

C-Vazquez

1B-Gallo

2B-Gordon

3B-Miranda

SS-Correa

LF- Larnach

CF-Taylor

RF-Kepler

There were a total of 5,489 AB's for the entire team in 2023. The opening starting 9 totaled 2,636 AB's over the course of the season. That is 48% of all AB's. 

Only two players from the opening day lineup finished the season with an OPS higher than the league average of .734. Those two players were Kepler and Gallo and both of them were performing so badly in the first couple of months that I would have cut them both in June. 

I'll acknowledge that three injured players on opening day (Polanco, Kirilloff and Lewis) were probably considered starters and were above average performers once they put a uniform on but even if you factor in those three players... it can't be denied that our so called fringe players got us into the playoffs last year. 

Pitching... Well 18 different pitchers threw over 20 innings. So it's happening on both sides of the ledger. 

No 40 man spot should be wasted. Fringe doesn't last long. 

From the shadows to the spotlight in the blink of an eye. 

[jorgenswest]

Is it important to have one or two slots that get shuttled through during the year to help with bullpen usage an injury? In that case might players of less importance be in those slots?

[High heat]

I agree with all who said Canterino could be put in the Bullpen and be effective and valuable opening day and has closer stuff and mentality.

 

Staumont we will know early. If he can’t get that fastball back he is likely cooked.

 

I actually have some confidence in Josh Winder, might be blind but I think the sinking fastball he had late and the  slider can be effective.  Hopefully he can commit to being a Bullpen role.  He reminds me a lot of Duffey.

 

I believe Gordon is gone he won’t make the opening day roster and will get taken up by another team.  His skill set doesn’t fit our team but is a solid player.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

53 minutes ago, High heat said:

I believe Gordon is gone he won’t make the opening day roster and will get taken up by another team.  His skill set doesn’t fit our team but is a solid player.

Gordon does have some good skills and perhaps he fits as an additional player in a trade. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, High heat said:

I believe Gordon is gone he won’t make the opening day roster and will get taken up by another team.  His skill set doesn’t fit our team but is a solid player.

Gordon sticks if they trade a different infielder or two (Polanco, Farmer). I agree that they don't have room for all of their current infielders on the 26 man roster.

[stringer bell]

I just don't see Gordon making the 26-man roster without disabling injuries. He is redundant in the outfield and not needed at second base, with both Polanco and Julien on the team. In order to make the team, he has to be considered a superior option in center field to Willi Castro and for there to be room on the bench for Castro, Farmer and Gordon. I just don't think that is the case.

[stringer bell]

The only guy I can see losing his spot on the 40-man not due to health issues is Jensen. Due to lack of options, Gordon and Balazovic are in jeopardy. 

[roger]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Severino had displayed flashes of huge power at Elizabethton, when he first started with the Twins. In fact, the Elizabethton Twins' GM made it a point to show me an outfield light pole, over which Severino had hit a monster homerun. 

Changed my response from 'like' to 'sad', tarheels.  Reason is that I am sad the Twins no longer have that team in Elizabethton.

To win it this year, the Twins are gonna have to get a good year from at least one of those relievers.  Doesn't have to be another Brock Stewart, but has to be solid, very solid.  That is unless they go out and get someone who gets it done.

[Riverbrian]

46 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I just don't see Gordon making the 26-man roster without disabling injuries. He is redundant in the outfield and not needed at second base, with both Polanco and Julien on the team. In order to make the team, he has to be considered a superior option in center field to Willi Castro and for there to be room on the bench for Castro, Farmer and Gordon. I just don't think that is the case.

I think his situation is tenuous. His injury last year wasn't helpful.

Now I assume that moves will be made but if you look at the current roster.

If the season started today. Does Gordon get a 26 man spot? 

If Yes

What would it take to knock him off the roster? If we are trading offense for pitching. Doesn't the offensive subtraction make Gordon one player closer to safe harbor? 

I have no idea what is about to happen and the answer will reveal itself over time but right now... it looks like he has a spot with moves to come.   

[stringer bell]

26 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I think his situation is tenuous. His injury last year wasn't helpful.

Now I assume that moves will be made but if you look at the current roster.

If the season started today. Does Gordon get a 26 man spot? 

If Yes

What would it take to knock him off the roster? If we are trading offense for pitching. Doesn't the offensive subtraction make Gordon one player closer to safe harbor? 

I have no idea what is about to happen and the answer will reveal itself over time but right now... it looks like he has a spot with moves to come.   

As the roster is today: 9 starters--Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Polanco, Wallner, Buxton, Kepler. With a three or four way trade-off for who is the DH. Bench--Vázquez, Farmer, Castro, Miranda. I'm picking Miranda for the last guy because he would get consistent (not frequent) playing time as the platoon partner for Kirilloff and given Kiriloff's health history, AK may get days off even against right handers. With the other 12 guys pretty much guaranteed their spots, where would Nick Gordon get consistent playing time? Is he a better option than Castro to start in center when Buxton is not? Should he start at second base over Julien or Polanco? Should he get time in left field when Castro is probably the better backup option? Even during his "good" year, his splits against left handed pitching were poor. Gordon has played very little third base and not much shortstop. Farmer and Castro are both preferred options to Gordon on the left side of the infield.

The Twins could make a place for Gordon by trading Farmer or Polanco (and maybe Kepler) or maybe more accurately, there would be a roster and playing time opportunity for Gordon if one of those three were traded. 

[IndianaTwin]

@Cody Christie, how do you categorize Jose Miranda and Bubba Thompson among the hitters. The latter, in particular, seems like he could be on the list above. What is the option status on them?

Beyond that...

Hitters: Trades and injuries will happen, but right now I'd think the 13 hitters desired (by the FO, not by those on TD) hitters are Jeffers, Vazquez, Correa, Farmer, Julien, Lewis, Polanco, Castro, Kepler, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, Buxton. From there:

• If there's an injury to a catcher, Camargo takes his spot. (He does have options, right?)
• If there's an injury to someone else, Gordon gets the spot.
• If there's NOT an injury to someone else, the Twins are loathe to give up on someone, so I suspect they'd keep Gordon in favor of Larnach, just to give him a final shot. The likelihood of an injury or trade makes this scenario doubtful.

Pitchers: Trades and injuries will happen. Otherwise...

• Right now, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland are the starters. Woods-Richardson is No. 6. 
• Duran, Jax, Stewart and Thielbar are the first four in the bullpen, likely followed in some order by Alcala, Funderburk and Headrick. Do any of the last three have options.
• In that scenario, Balazovic gets the No. 8 bullpen spot until he either pitches himself up the chain of command or out of the organization, followed by one of the guys above. 

EDIT to add: Apparently @stringer bell and I were typing simultaneously and largely got to the same conclusion, with him choosing Miranda and me Larnach. Either way, one's up, one's down and Gordon is relying on an injury to free up a spot. Because of the option situation, Miranda and Larnach only BOTH make the list is if there are two injuries. 

[Fatbat]

It would be nice if 2 of those guys had breakout seasons.  Any more than that would be crazy cool. I would expect more from the Miranda/Martin/Lee types tho. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I think his situation is tenuous. His injury last year wasn't helpful.

Now I assume that moves will be made but if you look at the current roster.

If the season started today. Does Gordon get a 26 man spot? 

If Yes

What would it take to knock him off the roster? If we are trading offense for pitching. Doesn't the offensive subtraction make Gordon one player closer to safe harbor? 

I have no idea what is about to happen and the answer will reveal itself over time but right now... it looks like he has a spot with moves to come.   

Unless Gordon wins a spot on the 26 man, he will either be traded or DFA’d and lost on waivers. 

[Brandon]

I can see Winder as our 7th reliever all year.  70 innings around a 3.8 - 4.2 ERA and close to a strike out per inning.

The Wild Card is Canterino.  Is he a reliever or 6th starter.  how many innings will he get.  Will his arm fall off or could he win 10 games in the rotation with an ERA below 3.00? 

I would love to see another pitcher put it all together and have a Brock like rise from nowhere.  

Who is on 1rst?  no not the skit either.  Killeroff?  Miranda?  Julien? Polanco? Velazquez?  Severino?  Severino cost the Twins 2.5 million to sign.  If he earns the opportunity which he seems close at this point. I expect him to be up.  Miranda is part of the previous regime if I am not mistaken.  

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

As the roster is today: 9 starters--Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Polanco, Wallner, Buxton, Kepler. With a three or four way trade-off for who is the DH. Bench--Vázquez, Farmer, Castro, Miranda. I'm picking Miranda for the last guy because he would get consistent (not frequent) playing time as the platoon partner for Kirilloff and given Kiriloff's health history, AK may get days off even against right handers. With the other 12 guys pretty much guaranteed their spots, where would Nick Gordon get consistent playing time? Is he a better option than Castro to start in center when Buxton is not? Should he start at second base over Julien or Polanco? Should he get time in left field when Castro is probably the better backup option? Even during his "good" year, his splits against left handed pitching were poor. Gordon has played very little third base and not much shortstop. Farmer and Castro are both preferred options to Gordon on the left side of the infield.

The Twins could make a place for Gordon by trading Farmer or Polanco (and maybe Kepler) or maybe more accurately, there would be a roster and playing time opportunity for Gordon if one of those three were traded. 

I could see the Twins adding Miranda to the 26 man out of spring training to provide that right handed compliment. 

That certainly would match with the operational model of last year so I agree that your logic is possible based on last year's utilization.   

It would be a horrible move in my opinion but I'm sure my opinion won't stop them.

Here's why I don't like the idea of adding Miranda for that role: 

1. Miranda shouldn't be limited to a short side platoon role. Trade him if that is all they want out of him. He was our starting 3B last year... he was our starting 3B in 2023 based on his 2022. If Miranda didn't display himself as the future in 2022... I have to assume that the Twins would have thought twice about including both Steer and Encarnacion-Strand in the trade for Mahle. That's a pretty hard fall from grace for Jose Miranda and I hope the organization isn't that reactionary. 

2. Miranda has options and would be better served rebuilding his value in AAA facing right handers and left handers and getting the call up when the injuries start to occur providing he gets himself back on track. 

3. This is the scariest point of them all. In 2022:

Miranda - 114 OPS+   

Gordon - 111 OPS+ 

Both had significant injuries last year so I'm not sure how much of 2023 should be factored in. However... Not only do you reduce a 114 OPS+ Miranda to below part-time play in 2024 but in order to do so... you have to blow a 111 OPS+ out of the water to make it happen. That sounds expensive and unnecessary when Miranda has options. 

As for where does Gordon play. Everyone will stay healthy? Everyone is going to OPS .800 and can't afford to yield playing time?

If they can't find playing time for Gordon... I'll assume the other players are healthy, killing it and that is keeping him glued to the bench. If that's the case... I'll purchase the playoff tickets right now. We got no concerns at all.  

 

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Unless Gordon wins a spot on the 26 man, he will either be traded or DFA’d and lost on waivers. 

Having no options remaining means he's got to play well and play well right now. His situation with the Twins is indeed tenuous. 

 

[DocBauer]

Not a big fan of a couple of those names, but also believe a couple of those names might not be on the 40 man much longer. 

I believe Canterino is going to help the Twins this season, maybe a lot. Staumont is worth the shot, depending on just how bad his injury was and how invasive thr surgery was. Having an option to get right is good. 

I've about given up on Balazovic, hard and surprising as that is to say. I have some optimism for Winder and his new sinker pairing with his slider, and for Sands and his excellent breaking ball IF his velocity can tick up a couple MPH without straightening out. Sitting and not pitching for 10-12 day stretches did him no favors last year.

I think I'm higher on Severino than some. Totally understand the K rate is concerning, and potentially frightening once he is at the ML level. But he does take walks, and he actually hits, and hits for power, from both sides of the plate. That tells me he actually has an approach, an idea, of what to do at the plate. I think the Twins can work with that.

Always supported Gordo. And this FO hates dropping depth about as much ad a root canal. But barring injury or multiple players moving in a deal, I just don't see room for him on the roster. I'm thinking a small deal for a team needed LH bat and OF versatility for a pen arm maybe.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, roger said:

Changed my response from 'like' to 'sad', tarheels.  Reason is that I am sad the Twins no longer have that team in Elizabethton.

To win it this year, the Twins are gonna have to get a good year from at least one of those relievers.  Doesn't have to be another Brock Stewart, but has to be solid, very solid.  That is unless they go out and get someone who gets it done.

I too miss the team in Elizabethton. The community was very proud of that team. 

[Nashvilletwin]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Any player on the 40 man roster is very very important. 

If a player is not important... that player should not be on the 40 man roster. 

17 Players had at least 100 AB's last year. 

Last year... the opening day starting 9.

DH-Buxton

C-Vazquez

1B-Gallo

2B-Gordon

3B-Miranda

SS-Correa

LF- Larnach

CF-Taylor

RF-Kepler

There were a total of 5,489 AB's for the entire team in 2023. The opening starting 9 totaled 2,636 AB's over the course of the season. That is 48% of all AB's. 

Only two players from the opening day lineup finished the season with an OPS higher than the league average of .734. Those two players were Kepler and Gallo and both of them were performing so badly in the first couple of months that I would have cut them both in June. 

I'll acknowledge that three injured players on opening day (Polanco, Kirilloff and Lewis) were probably considered starters and were above average performers once they put a uniform on but even if you factor in those three players... it can't be denied that our so called fringe players got us into the playoffs last year. 

Pitching... Well 18 different pitchers threw over 20 innings. So it's happening on both sides of the ledger. 

No 40 man spot should be wasted. Fringe doesn't last long. 

From the shadows to the spotlight in the blink of an eye. 

Great post.

Btw, let’s look at this year’s presumptive (as of today - of course lots could still happen) opening day lineup:

2B Julien (L)

3B Lewis (R)

DH Polanco (SW)

CF Buxton (R)

RF Kepler (L)

C Jeffers (R)

LF Wallner (L)

1B Kiriloff (L)

SS Correa (R)

Correa and Kepler are the only two returning starters in the field. With Buxton now in CF, there are six new hitters.

I like 2024’s lineup over 2023’s.