Examining the Fringe of the 2024 Twins 40-Man Roster

Not an exciting group.  I agree with Cory Englelhardt on Canterino and Staumont.  Balazovic and Winder were so high in my expectations two years ago, but they along with Sands have become mediocre fillers at this point.  

I don't see a hitter getting in, and that includes Gordon who seems to have really dropped from the year before - was that his career year?  His problem is that we have Farmer and Castro and if Buxton does play like he says this year he is not needed. 

Any player on the 40 man roster is very very important. 

If a player is not important... that player should not be on the 40 man roster. 

17 Players had at least 100 AB's last year. 

Last year... the opening day starting 9.

DH-Buxton

C-Vazquez

1B-Gallo

2B-Gordon

3B-Miranda

SS-Correa

LF- Larnach

CF-Taylor

RF-Kepler

There were a total of 5,489 AB's for the entire team in 2023. The opening starting 9 totaled 2,636 AB's over the course of the season. That is 48% of all AB's. 

Only two players from the opening day lineup finished the season with an OPS higher than the league average of .734. Those two players were Kepler and Gallo and both of them were performing so badly in the first couple of months that I would have cut them both in June. 

I'll acknowledge that three injured players on opening day (Polanco, Kirilloff and Lewis) were probably considered starters and were above average performers once they put a uniform on but even if you factor in those three players... it can't be denied that our so called fringe players got us into the playoffs last year. 

Pitching... Well 18 different pitchers threw over 20 innings. So it's happening on both sides of the ledger. 

No 40 man spot should be wasted. Fringe doesn't last long. 

From the shadows to the spotlight in the blink of an eye. 

46 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I just don't see Gordon making the 26-man roster without disabling injuries. He is redundant in the outfield and not needed at second base, with both Polanco and Julien on the team. In order to make the team, he has to be considered a superior option in center field to Willi Castro and for there to be room on the bench for Castro, Farmer and Gordon. I just don't think that is the case.

I think his situation is tenuous. His injury last year wasn't helpful.

Now I assume that moves will be made but if you look at the current roster.

If the season started today. Does Gordon get a 26 man spot? 

If Yes

What would it take to knock him off the roster? If we are trading offense for pitching. Doesn't the offensive subtraction make Gordon one player closer to safe harbor? 

I have no idea what is about to happen and the answer will reveal itself over time but right now... it looks like he has a spot with moves to come.   

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

As the roster is today: 9 starters--Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Polanco, Wallner, Buxton, Kepler. With a three or four way trade-off for who is the DH. Bench--Vázquez, Farmer, Castro, Miranda. I'm picking Miranda for the last guy because he would get consistent (not frequent) playing time as the platoon partner for Kirilloff and given Kiriloff's health history, AK may get days off even against right handers. With the other 12 guys pretty much guaranteed their spots, where would Nick Gordon get consistent playing time? Is he a better option than Castro to start in center when Buxton is not? Should he start at second base over Julien or Polanco? Should he get time in left field when Castro is probably the better backup option? Even during his "good" year, his splits against left handed pitching were poor. Gordon has played very little third base and not much shortstop. Farmer and Castro are both preferred options to Gordon on the left side of the infield.

The Twins could make a place for Gordon by trading Farmer or Polanco (and maybe Kepler) or maybe more accurately, there would be a roster and playing time opportunity for Gordon if one of those three were traded. 

I could see the Twins adding Miranda to the 26 man out of spring training to provide that right handed compliment. 

That certainly would match with the operational model of last year so I agree that your logic is possible based on last year's utilization.   

It would be a horrible move in my opinion but I'm sure my opinion won't stop them.

Here's why I don't like the idea of adding Miranda for that role: 

1. Miranda shouldn't be limited to a short side platoon role. Trade him if that is all they want out of him. He was our starting 3B last year... he was our starting 3B in 2023 based on his 2022. If Miranda didn't display himself as the future in 2022... I have to assume that the Twins would have thought twice about including both Steer and Encarnacion-Strand in the trade for Mahle. That's a pretty hard fall from grace for Jose Miranda and I hope the organization isn't that reactionary. 

2. Miranda has options and would be better served rebuilding his value in AAA facing right handers and left handers and getting the call up when the injuries start to occur providing he gets himself back on track. 

3. This is the scariest point of them all. In 2022:

Miranda - 114 OPS+   

Gordon - 111 OPS+ 

Both had significant injuries last year so I'm not sure how much of 2023 should be factored in. However... Not only do you reduce a 114 OPS+ Miranda to below part-time play in 2024 but in order to do so... you have to blow a 111 OPS+ out of the water to make it happen. That sounds expensive and unnecessary when Miranda has options. 

As for where does Gordon play. Everyone will stay healthy? Everyone is going to OPS .800 and can't afford to yield playing time?

If they can't find playing time for Gordon... I'll assume the other players are healthy, killing it and that is keeping him glued to the bench. If that's the case... I'll purchase the playoff tickets right now. We got no concerns at all.  

5 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Unless Gordon wins a spot on the 26 man, he will either be traded or DFA’d and lost on waivers. 

Having no options remaining means he's got to play well and play well right now. His situation with the Twins is indeed tenuous. 

Not a big fan of a couple of those names, but also believe a couple of those names might not be on the 40 man much longer. 

I believe Canterino is going to help the Twins this season, maybe a lot. Staumont is worth the shot, depending on just how bad his injury was and how invasive thr surgery was. Having an option to get right is good. 

I've about given up on Balazovic, hard and surprising as that is to say. I have some optimism for Winder and his new sinker pairing with his slider, and for Sands and his excellent breaking ball IF his velocity can tick up a couple MPH without straightening out. Sitting and not pitching for 10-12 day stretches did him no favors last year.

I think I'm higher on Severino than some. Totally understand the K rate is concerning, and potentially frightening once he is at the ML level. But he does take walks, and he actually hits, and hits for power, from both sides of the plate. That tells me he actually has an approach, an idea, of what to do at the plate. I think the Twins can work with that.

Always supported Gordo. And this FO hates dropping depth about as much ad a root canal. But barring injury or multiple players moving in a deal, I just don't see room for him on the roster. I'm thinking a small deal for a team needed LH bat and OF versatility for a pen arm maybe.