An Under-the-Radar Center Field Trade Target

[Adam Friedman]

As the 2024 season approaches, uncertainty looms over the Twins' center field situation. With Michael A. Taylor's departure feeling fairly likely and Byron Buxton's injury history, can they find the stability they need to defend their division title?

Image courtesy of © Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

Center field is full of potential solutions, but also plenty of question marks. Beyond Byron Buxton, candidates include Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, and Austin Martin. However, Castro may not carry forward his success from 2023; Gordon was a disaster before missing the rest of the season with a fractured shin; and Martin could use a bit more time in Triple A, after a delayed start to 2023 with a UCL sprain. Plus, there are defensive questions about all three. 

Center-Field Stability
One call the Twins should make is to the San Francisco Giants, with an eye toward acquiring Austin Slater as some valuable insurance. While not providing the elite defense in center that Buxton and Michael A. Taylor do, public defensive metrics indicate he's generally been around average in center, without being asked to be an everyday player. 

While not a star by any means, Slater has been slightly above average as a hitter, with a career 105 wRC+. Should Buxton be unavailable to play center field, having Slater would raise the floor and prevent disaster. His well-rounded skill set can answer one of the team's main questions, as they look to defend their division title.

Lefty Masher
Beyond the defensive value, Slater is a reliably terrific hitter against lefties--something the Twins have needed for years. He posted a 123 wRC+ against lefties in 2023, and owns a 131 wRC+ for his career, making him an excellent weapon for Rocco Baldelli to pencil into the lineup in those matchups and pinch-hitting opportunities against lefty relievers, in the event that the Twins did trade for him. 

Unlike previous right-handed platoon outfielders over the last few years (namely Kyle Garlick and Jordan Luplow), Slater provides flexibility. Should Buxton go down, he could platoon with Gordon or Castro (a switch-hitter) in center. Should Buxton remain healthy, he can fill in for Max Kepler or Matt Wallner in a corner. Adding Slater gives Baldelli and the Twins more options to play the matchups.

The Trade
Under Derek Falvey, the Twins have made awful trades with Farhan Zaidi and the Giants, bringing in Sam Dyson in 2019 and trading away Late Night LaMonte Wade, Jr. in 2020. However, bringing in Slater would address multiple needs, and there is plenty of reason for both sides to make the deal.

From the Giants' standpoint, they just signed Korean star Jung Hoo Lee, so they have their center fielder for the next six years. In addition, Mitch Haniger is already on their books as a lefty-mashing righty platoon bat.

Beyond Lee and Haniger, Luis Matos, formerly one of their top prospects and still just 21 years old, makes Slater redundant for San Francisco. Matos struggled against righties in his first year in the big leagues but crushed lefties, with a 135 wRC+. He can stick in center, and is undoubtedly part of their long-term future. Slater will be a free agent following the 2024 season and is projected to make $3.6 million in arbitration before then.

One potential fit could be Kyle Farmer, who is projected to make $6.6 million in arbitration, amid an budget crunch and a surplus of infielders this offseason for Minnesota. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that San Francisco is looking to add a shortstop to take some pressure off top-100 prospect, 22-year-old Marco Luciano. Farmer could be the perfect short-term solution for the Giants at shortstop, and the additional $3 million in payroll that Farmer will add relative to Slater is insignificant in their budget. 

The Twins may have to add a prospect to make this trade work, but if Zaidi views Farmer as a shortstop, the teams and players match up well. Slater could be an essential role player for the Twins in 2024, just like Farmer was in 2023.

Would you want the Twins to trade for Austin Slater?

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[Cory Engelhardt]

This is a GREAT idea. Make it happen!

[Nashvilletwin]

It could be the FO believes the plan for CF in 2024 is already settled.  Barring some major new developments on the Buxton health front, it appears the FO is settled on some combo of Buxton, Castro, Gordon, and Martin in CF.

In any event, any trade for a CF is way on the back burner and probably won’t be considered until the SP is addressed.  Any capital we have to trade will be kept until we see if we can acquire at least one additional starter.  Even then, RP and 1B may be higher priorities. 

[RpR]

His numbers at Baseball Ref. show he would be a gaping hole at Center, and not even close to the bat Taylor is.

It would never happen.

[Major League Ready]

Why not just sign Harrison Bader instead of trading?  He is an even better defender and has the same type of L/R splits.

[PatPfund]

I'm just not interested in dealing from our infield surplus until they acquire a pitcher, and then only if there is still a surplus, which I doubt. Julien, Lee, Farmer, and Polanco are all possible/likely trade chips, and the need for another SP dwarfs CF (where options of this quality abound on the FA market as well as potentially in our own system).

Plus if CF leans toward Castro, Farmer's ability to move around is suddenly a lot more critical and he was a full WAR above Slater last year with nearly twice as many bats, so I'm not excited by the price either.

[Brandon]

A perfect trade scenario of Farmer for Slater.  Both will be free agents next offseason.  But I think 🤔 Buxton will play 90-120 games there and the rest will be in house candidates.  Castro, Gordon, or Austin Martin.  

[Castinofan]

Really appreciate articles like these that are thoughtful and realistic.  This trade makes sense.  My only concern is at shortstop once Farmer is traded.  Do the Twins have enough faith in Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis to backup Correa for a long stretch?  There is a shortage of shortstops on the market this year. Look at IKF's recent contract. I think Farmer could be worth more than this trade envisions.  

[Doctor Gast]

Great job, Adam! Well-thought-out trade scenario. Slater should be a reasonable trade target. Unlike most, I believe there's no excess INF depth. If we trade Polanco & Farmer we'd be in very tough shape. But if we don't trade Polanco we can swing it. Because with Slater's help in CF, that could free up Castro to help out the INF when Correa, Lewis & Polanco need subs. Plus when Buxton is in CF we have Slater to play the corners when facing a LHP.

I'm a firm believer in Martin who has the makeup to be a MLBer. But more time in CF at AAA won't hurt. I'm a supporter of this trade but IMO it won't happen until well into the off-season. I don't think we are in a hurry for this trade but we are for a front-line SP.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Nice find Adam. I like it.

I am not comfortable with the Gordon/Castro/Martin solution. Do either Martin or Gordon provide true CF coverage? We know Castro prefers the infield. 

Really appreciate Castro's contributions last year. Can Gordon bounce back? Can Martin hit MLB pitching? Finding a true MLB outfielder seems like a wise move.

Farmer may be an over payment, but this has potential. 

[rv78]

I say No. Go with Buxton in CF everyday and if he can't play there show Falvine the door. Constantly having to coverup mistakes does not make you a good GM. Then get Buck to agree to a trade and solve the problem once and for all. Only the Twins go into every season required to have a backup player for one of the players they are trying to build around. Sorry, the mistake is, trying to build a team around someone who rarely plays. If the budget is to undergo tightening and subtraction you don't waste that money on 2 players where one should be sufficient. Maybe they should trade for a #1 Ace Pitcher to play in case Pablo Lopez gets hurt and can't play. We know that's not going to happen but in theory it's the same thing they have to do with Buck every year and most of you see no problem with it. In fact, article after article gets written about who Buxtons backup should be. I think for once it should be Buxton and if he fails to stay healthy, ask him to retire.

[ashbury]

46 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Go with Buxton in CF everyday and if he can't play there show Falvine the door. Constantly having to coverup mistakes does not make you a good GM. Then get Buck to agree to a trade and solve the problem once and for all.

What happens to the GM at the other team who makes the mistake of trading for Buxton? 

[Fatbat]

I kinda like this trade. It might be a solid trade for both teams to add the right role players to fill out a roster. I like Farmer but his skillset is a bit redundant our roster.  

Edited December 27, 2023 by Fatbat

[TopGunn#22]

I would!  He's younger and doesn't strike out as much as Adam Duval and would fit in to our OF as that RH platoon against lefties and backup/insurance for Buxton in CF.

A trade with the Giants sending them Farmer is a good one.  it saves us $3 million dollars and adds a solid RH hitter to our OF mix.  Great Suggestion !!

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

What happens to the GM at the other team who makes the mistake of trading for Buxton? 

[DocBauer]

Just my gut feeling, but I think Rocco, and I'd bet the FO as well, would be willing to live with a limited bat who plays great defense in CF. Example: Taylor. And I have some reservations as to how good Slater is defensively in CF.

Both the Brewers and Cardinals have similar CF options and enough depth to move someone. And there "someone's" might be better defensively, while also having offense, or offense upside.

Not sure this is a great fit. But it's a well thought out possibility that has some merit. 

I can see Farmer moved in the right deal. And I can see the Twins weathering the loss of Farmer as a backup SS option since Correa doesn't miss many games, Castro can play the spot OK on occasion, so can Lewis, and Lee is in the wings. But I just have this "sense" that the Twins really want to keep Farmer for 2024 at his $6M for defense, versatility, an OK bat, and leadership. He might be moved. But I don't think they are in a hurry to do so.

[TopGunn#22]

Don't forget the Twins just signed Nico Goodrum and he's a very good glove, especially at SS.  Goodrum could make Farmer expendable and for the right return I think the Twins will trade him.  Another FA out there who is a RH hitter that has defensive versatility is Nick Senzel, formerly of the Reds.  

[Minny505]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Both the Brewers and Cardinals have similar CF options and enough depth to move someone. And there "someone's" might be better defensively, while also having offense, or offense upside.

I don't think this is any longer the case.

The Brewers already traded Taylor. I doubt they're interested in trading Wiemer.

Cardinals traded O'Neill. They might be open to traded Edman or Carlson, but I doubt it. The asking price for either would be enormous.

22 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Why not just sign Harrison Bader instead of trading?  He is an even better defender and has the same type of L/R splits.

I don't disagree on Bader, except that he is likely going to cost $10-$12mil and looking for a clear starting gig on a prove-it contract to get the big payday after the 2024 season. The Twins don't have what he is likely looking for.

[Minny505]

21 hours ago, Castinofan said:

Really appreciate articles like these that are thoughtful and realistic.  This trade makes sense.  My only concern is at shortstop once Farmer is traded.  Do the Twins have enough faith in Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis to backup Correa for a long stretch?  There is a shortage of shortstops on the market this year. Look at IKF's recent contract. I think Farmer could be worth more than this trade envisions.  

Agreed. @Adam Friedman, this is the best trade proposal-type article I have read on TD in months, maybe years. Most are so outlandish. However, this one is very plausible.

Castro, Lewis, and Lee are more than enough backup options for Correa at SS. Slater is a better fit on this roster as the top backup/platoon option all around the OF than Farmer is for the infield. On a one-year contract, he the the perfect bridge for Austin Martin.

Like @Castinofan said, Farmer and his contract for Slater and his contract is a pretty straight-up trade. Each team deals from a surplus to get a better fit. No need to complicate it from there.

[Major League Ready]

43 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

I don't think this is any longer the case.

The Brewers already traded Taylor. I doubt they're interested in trading Wiemer.

Cardinals traded O'Neill. They might be open to traded Edman or Carlson, but I doubt it. The asking price for either would be enormous.

I don't disagree on Bader, except that he is likely going to cost $10-$12mil and looking for a clear starting gig on a prove-it contract to get the big payday after the 2024 season. The Twins don't have what he is likely looking for.

MLB trade rumors had him at 2/20.  I think it depends on how much salary they clear with Polanco and/or Vasquez / Farmer and Kepler.  The negotiations with Bally could come into play as well.  If the budget is available, the only better use of any available funds is pitching.  They could redistribute Polanco's money to Bader and then push the budget to $135M or so for a SP.  I could see Farmer being traded as well if they land a SP and need to clear payroll space to make the pitching addition.  Their relative confidence or lack thereof among the internal candidate might ultimately determine their interest in Bader or similar players.

[JD-TWINS]

On 12/27/2023 at 3:24 PM, rv78 said:

I say No. Go with Buxton in CF everyday and if he can't play there show Falvine the door. Constantly having to coverup mistakes does not make you a good GM. Then get Buck to agree to a trade and solve the problem once and for all. Only the Twins go into every season required to have a backup player for one of the players they are trying to build around. Sorry, the mistake is, trying to build a team around someone who rarely plays. If the budget is to undergo tightening and subtraction you don't waste that money on 2 players where one should be sufficient. Maybe they should trade for a #1 Ace Pitcher to play in case Pablo Lopez gets hurt and can't play. We know that's not going to happen but in theory it's the same thing they have to do with Buck every year and most of you see no problem with it. In fact, article after article gets written about who Buxtons backup should be. I think for once it should be Buxton and if he fails to stay healthy, ask him to retire.

The reason is, the Team is stuck. Nobody’s trading for Buxton. Buxton’s not approving a trade to any team. Period.

Buxton has averaged less than 70 games per year for 9 years.

He has one season over 100 games.

Starting him everyday until he can’t go due to injury isn’t very bright!

They are paying him and his bat, when healthy, can be of benefit. 40 games in CF & 80 games at DH gives the team 50 more games than his career average and it gives him. chance to hit 25-30 HR……25-30 doubles. Those numbers are of value over 75% of the team’s games. He had 17 of each in ‘23 playing in 86 total games - 6 or more of those games were him pinch hitting. At least half of the games he played in he was hurt.

Playing him in limited games in CF may allow the team to have him available and healthy in October.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

MLB trade rumors had him at 2/20.  I think it depends on how much salary they clear with Polanco and/or Vasquez / Farmer and Kepler.  The negotiations with Bally could come into play as well.  If the budget is available, the only better use of any available funds is pitching.  They could redistribute Polanco's money to Bader and then push the budget to $135M or so for a SP.  I could see Farmer being traded as well if they land a SP and need to clear payroll space to make the pitching addition.  Their relative confidence or lack thereof among the internal candidate might ultimately determine their interest in Bader or similar players.

Sorry, I realize you aren’t the only guy suggesting Harrison Bader as a decent option for the club. He’s a Free Agent who was released & he’s 29. That should tell everyone something. He’s terrible!! His WAR last year was .6.

In ‘23 Bader had 331 AB’s and had 7 HR & 21 total Extra Base Hits. Buxton was playing hurt at least 50% of the time that he played in ‘23 and in 304 AB’s he had a .8 WAR, playing zero defense AND he had 17 HR & 36 total Extra Base Hits. We have plenty of guys that may or may not be able to hit that can catch fly balls in CF. Harrison Bader is not the answer.

Castro - Buxton - Gordon - Martin…….to me that’s what we roll with in ‘23.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Sorry, I realize you aren’t the only guy suggesting Harrison Bader as a decent option for the club. He’s a Free Agent who was released & he’s 29. That should tell everyone something. He’s terrible!! His WAR last year was .6.

In ‘23 Bader had 331 AB’s and had 7 HR & 21 total Extra Base Hits. Buxton was playing hurt at least 50% of the time that he played in ‘23 and in 304 AB’s he had a .8 WAR, playing zero defense AND he had 17 HR & 36 total Extra Base Hits. We have plenty of guys that may or may not be able to hit that can catch fly balls in CF. Harrison Bader is not the answer.

Castro - Buxton - Gordon - Martin…….to me that’s what we roll with in ‘23.

I agree he is not the answer if we are looking for someone to start 100 games.  Neither is Castro or Gordon.  I can see rolling with Martin if the available dollars are all allocated to pitching.  There are not any great defensive CFers with a 120 wRC+ available.  However, Bader could be a great role player and I think his contract will end up reflecting that role.  Bader has a career .823 OPS against LHP.  That's a good fit to platoon for this team and he is a terrific defender and base runner.  Play him as much as possible against LHP.  Use him as a pinch runner and late inning defensive sub.  

Bader had his worst offensive year last year and produced 1 fWAR in 98 games.  MAT had his best offensive year in the past 5 years and had 1.7 fWAR in 129 games.  The advantage of Bader is his splits against LH pitching.  I realize you are not advocating MAT but everyone was quite happy with him last year.  I guess it depends on if you think Bader is washed up at 29 or will he bounce back.  Was he hurt?  Is that why he only player 98 games.  IDK what to make of him but there could be some serious upside in a player that would fit really well on this team given his ability to spell Buxton and to play against LHP.

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree he is not the answer if we are looking for someone to start 100 games.  Neither is Castro or Gordon.  I can see rolling with Martin if the available dollars are all allocated to pitching.  There are not any great defensive CFers with a 120 wRC+ available.  However, Bader could be a great role player and I think his contract will end up reflecting that role.  Bader has a career .823 OPS against LHP.  That's a good fit to platoon for this team and he is a terrific defender and base runner.  Play him as much as possible against LHP.  Use him as a pinch runner and late inning defensive sub.  

Bad news is there’s only about 25% of starts by LH pitching - 30% on high side. Can’t see paying Bader when they already have guys that are rostered - not to potentially thrive in 40-45 games.

Don’t see why Gordon or Castro can’t play CF 100 games? Gordon started about 45 games there in ‘22 and he played 2B as needed since Polanco was hurt & he played LF. Whether he can hit like he did in ‘22 again is up in the air.

Really don’t see Castro struggling to match Bader’s .235 BA from either side of the plate.

Hopefully, Buxton can start the 40 games v. LH pitching in CF!

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Bad news is there’s only about 25% of starts by LH pitching - 30% on high side. Can’t see paying Bader when they already have guys that are rostered - not to potentially thrive in 40-45 games.

Don’t see why Gordon or Castro can’t play CF 100 games? Gordon started about 45 games there in ‘22 and he played 2B as needed since Polanco was hurt & he played LF. Whether he can hit like he did in ‘22 again is up in the air.

Really don’t see Castro struggling to match Bader’s .235 BA from either side of the plate.

Hopefully, Buxton can start the 40 games v. LH pitching in CF!

We just don’t see this the same way.  Obviously, SPs are only Left-handed 25-30% of the time but Rocco loves to plays match-ups.  So, your 40-45 game scenario does not account for opportunities against LH relievers.  That opportunity presents itself in three-quarters of the other games.  Rocco could be very aggressive inserting someone like Bader knowing he will play great D until his next AB.  If that AB is against a RHP, Rocco can pinch hit and play Castro or Gordon in CF.

I also don’t see Gordon or Castro as being close to Bader defensively.   He is going to be a plus defensively whenever he is in the game.   You are also not placing any value to having this type of player on the bench as a pinch runner and defensive replacement.  He could be used to get Buxton out of the game when the score is not close and pinch run late in games that are close. 

The best case scenario is Buxton plays 80+ games in CF and someone like Bader plays CF against LHP and Buxton is the DH. I just don’t see the value of a bench / platoon player as limited to games started by LHP in this case.  He is good enough defensively that someone might pay him like an everyday player but that remains to be seen.

BTW …. Farmer has almost identical splits and Bader has more defensive impact than Farmer.
 

[JD-TWINS]

29 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

We just don’t see this the same way.  Obviously, SPs are only Left-handed 25-30% of the time but Rocco loves to plays match-ups.  So, your 40-45 game scenario does not account for opportunities against LH relievers.  That opportunity presents itself in three-quarters of the other games.  Rocco could be very aggressive inserting someone like Bader knowing he will play great D until his next AB.  If that AB is against a RHP, Rocco can pinch hit and play Castro or Gordon in CF.

I also don’t see Gordon or Castro as being close to Bader defensively.   He is going to be a plus defensively whenever he is in the game.   You are also not placing any value to having this type of player on the bench as a pinch runner and defensive replacement.  He could be used to get Buxton out of the game when the score is not close and pinch run late in games that are close. 

The best case scenario is Buxton plays 80+ games in CF and someone like Bader plays CF against LHP and Buxton is the DH. I just don’t see the value of a bench / platoon player as limited to games started by LHP in this case.  He is good enough defensively that someone might pay him like an everyday player but that remains to be seen.

BTW …. Farmer has almost identical splits and Bader has more defensive impact than Farmer.
 

His WAR in ‘23, inclusive of his fine defense, was .6. Just not anything of interest for more than $2.5M. Why not just sign Taylor for similar defense - better power - similar average - continuity?………I don’t know what Bader will sign for…….another writer here had him at $10-$13M………don’t recall if that was per year or for two years? If either are correct (assuming 2 years), Taylor could be signed for same.

[JD-TWINS]

Trade Sands straight up for Stuart Fairchild of the Reds. He’s their 5th OF’er with time at AAA last year. He’s Martin with experience for CF. He was kept on big club late September when Bader was released.

RH hitting OF that plays mostly left field & center field. Good speed. Controllable & playing for minimum and an opportunity. Reds roster is clogged with young talent & they are probably moving Jonathan India to OF this spring.

Seems like a win - win.

[Major League Ready]

44 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

His WAR in ‘23, inclusive of his fine defense, was .6. Just not anything of interest for more than $2.5M. Why not just sign Taylor for similar defense - better power - similar average - continuity?………I don’t know what Bader will sign for…….another writer here had him at $10-$13M………don’t recall if that was per year or for two years? If either are correct (assuming 2 years), Taylor could be signed for same.

Taylor is a good option.  A big part of this is the medical report on Buxton.  Do they have sufficient cause to believe he will be back in CF.  If so, Bader hits LHP much better than MAT so Buxton / Bader are the better platoon.  

You are also only considering last year and you are doing so using one measure of WAR. fWAR has them as them at 1.0 and 1.7 respectively.  Of course, this is a cumulative stat and MAT played 31 more games.  This was Bader's worst year of his career and this was Taylor's best year since 2017.  I would put a little more weight on the previous year but I would also consider career numbers and age with MAT being 4 years older.