An Under-the-Radar Center Field Trade Target

It could be the FO believes the plan for CF in 2024 is already settled.  Barring some major new developments on the Buxton health front, it appears the FO is settled on some combo of Buxton, Castro, Gordon, and Martin in CF.

In any event, any trade for a CF is way on the back burner and probably won’t be considered until the SP is addressed.  Any capital we have to trade will be kept until we see if we can acquire at least one additional starter.  Even then, RP and 1B may be higher priorities. 

His numbers at Baseball Ref. show he would be a gaping hole at Center, and not even close to the bat Taylor is.

It would never happen.

Why not just sign Harrison Bader instead of trading?  He is an even better defender and has the same type of L/R splits.

A perfect trade scenario of Farmer for Slater.  Both will be free agents next offseason.  But I think 🤔 Buxton will play 90-120 games there and the rest will be in house candidates.  Castro, Gordon, or Austin Martin.  

Great job, Adam! Well-thought-out trade scenario. Slater should be a reasonable trade target. Unlike most, I believe there's no excess INF depth. If we trade Polanco & Farmer we'd be in very tough shape. But if we don't trade Polanco we can swing it. Because with Slater's help in CF, that could free up Castro to help out the INF when Correa, Lewis & Polanco need subs. Plus when Buxton is in CF we have Slater to play the corners when facing a LHP.

I'm a firm believer in Martin who has the makeup to be a MLBer. But more time in CF at AAA won't hurt. I'm a supporter of this trade but IMO it won't happen until well into the off-season. I don't think we are in a hurry for this trade but we are for a front-line SP.

I say No. Go with Buxton in CF everyday and if he can't play there show Falvine the door. Constantly having to coverup mistakes does not make you a good GM. Then get Buck to agree to a trade and solve the problem once and for all. Only the Twins go into every season required to have a backup player for one of the players they are trying to build around. Sorry, the mistake is, trying to build a team around someone who rarely plays. If the budget is to undergo tightening and subtraction you don't waste that money on 2 players where one should be sufficient. Maybe they should trade for a #1 Ace Pitcher to play in case Pablo Lopez gets hurt and can't play. We know that's not going to happen but in theory it's the same thing they have to do with Buck every year and most of you see no problem with it. In fact, article after article gets written about who Buxtons backup should be. I think for once it should be Buxton and if he fails to stay healthy, ask him to retire.

I kinda like this trade. It might be a solid trade for both teams to add the right role players to fill out a roster. I like Farmer but his skillset is a bit redundant our roster.  

I would!  He's younger and doesn't strike out as much as Adam Duval and would fit in to our OF as that RH platoon against lefties and backup/insurance for Buxton in CF.

A trade with the Giants sending them Farmer is a good one.  it saves us $3 million dollars and adds a solid RH hitter to our OF mix.  Great Suggestion !!

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

What happens to the GM at the other team who makes the mistake of trading for Buxton? 

Don't forget the Twins just signed Nico Goodrum and he's a very good glove, especially at SS.  Goodrum could make Farmer expendable and for the right return I think the Twins will trade him.  Another FA out there who is a RH hitter that has defensive versatility is Nick Senzel, formerly of the Reds.  

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Both the Brewers and Cardinals have similar CF options and enough depth to move someone. And there "someone's" might be better defensively, while also having offense, or offense upside.

I don't think this is any longer the case.

The Brewers already traded Taylor. I doubt they're interested in trading Wiemer.

Cardinals traded O'Neill. They might be open to traded Edman or Carlson, but I doubt it. The asking price for either would be enormous.

22 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Why not just sign Harrison Bader instead of trading?  He is an even better defender and has the same type of L/R splits.

I don't disagree on Bader, except that he is likely going to cost $10-$12mil and looking for a clear starting gig on a prove-it contract to get the big payday after the 2024 season. The Twins don't have what he is likely looking for.

21 hours ago, Castinofan said:

Really appreciate articles like these that are thoughtful and realistic.  This trade makes sense.  My only concern is at shortstop once Farmer is traded.  Do the Twins have enough faith in Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis to backup Correa for a long stretch?  There is a shortage of shortstops on the market this year. Look at IKF's recent contract. I think Farmer could be worth more than this trade envisions.  

Agreed. @Adam Friedman, this is the best trade proposal-type article I have read on TD in months, maybe years. Most are so outlandish. However, this one is very plausible.

Castro, Lewis, and Lee are more than enough backup options for Correa at SS. Slater is a better fit on this roster as the top backup/platoon option all around the OF than Farmer is for the infield. On a one-year contract, he the the perfect bridge for Austin Martin.

Like @Castinofan said, Farmer and his contract for Slater and his contract is a pretty straight-up trade. Each team deals from a surplus to get a better fit. No need to complicate it from there.

43 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

I don't think this is any longer the case.

The Brewers already traded Taylor. I doubt they're interested in trading Wiemer.

Cardinals traded O'Neill. They might be open to traded Edman or Carlson, but I doubt it. The asking price for either would be enormous.

I don't disagree on Bader, except that he is likely going to cost $10-$12mil and looking for a clear starting gig on a prove-it contract to get the big payday after the 2024 season. The Twins don't have what he is likely looking for.

MLB trade rumors had him at 2/20.  I think it depends on how much salary they clear with Polanco and/or Vasquez / Farmer and Kepler.  The negotiations with Bally could come into play as well.  If the budget is available, the only better use of any available funds is pitching.  They could redistribute Polanco's money to Bader and then push the budget to $135M or so for a SP.  I could see Farmer being traded as well if they land a SP and need to clear payroll space to make the pitching addition.  Their relative confidence or lack thereof among the internal candidate might ultimately determine their interest in Bader or similar players.

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Sorry, I realize you aren’t the only guy suggesting Harrison Bader as a decent option for the club. He’s a Free Agent who was released & he’s 29. That should tell everyone something. He’s terrible!! His WAR last year was .6.

In ‘23 Bader had 331 AB’s and had 7 HR & 21 total Extra Base Hits. Buxton was playing hurt at least 50% of the time that he played in ‘23 and in 304 AB’s he had a .8 WAR, playing zero defense AND he had 17 HR & 36 total Extra Base Hits. We have plenty of guys that may or may not be able to hit that can catch fly balls in CF. Harrison Bader is not the answer.

Castro - Buxton - Gordon - Martin…….to me that’s what we roll with in ‘23.

I agree he is not the answer if we are looking for someone to start 100 games.  Neither is Castro or Gordon.  I can see rolling with Martin if the available dollars are all allocated to pitching.  There are not any great defensive CFers with a 120 wRC+ available.  However, Bader could be a great role player and I think his contract will end up reflecting that role.  Bader has a career .823 OPS against LHP.  That's a good fit to platoon for this team and he is a terrific defender and base runner.  Play him as much as possible against LHP.  Use him as a pinch runner and late inning defensive sub.  

Bader had his worst offensive year last year and produced 1 fWAR in 98 games.  MAT had his best offensive year in the past 5 years and had 1.7 fWAR in 129 games.  The advantage of Bader is his splits against LH pitching.  I realize you are not advocating MAT but everyone was quite happy with him last year.  I guess it depends on if you think Bader is washed up at 29 or will he bounce back.  Was he hurt?  Is that why he only player 98 games.  IDK what to make of him but there could be some serious upside in a player that would fit really well on this team given his ability to spell Buxton and to play against LHP.

9 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Bad news is there’s only about 25% of starts by LH pitching - 30% on high side. Can’t see paying Bader when they already have guys that are rostered - not to potentially thrive in 40-45 games.

Don’t see why Gordon or Castro can’t play CF 100 games? Gordon started about 45 games there in ‘22 and he played 2B as needed since Polanco was hurt & he played LF. Whether he can hit like he did in ‘22 again is up in the air.

Really don’t see Castro struggling to match Bader’s .235 BA from either side of the plate.

Hopefully, Buxton can start the 40 games v. LH pitching in CF!

We just don’t see this the same way.  Obviously, SPs are only Left-handed 25-30% of the time but Rocco loves to plays match-ups.  So, your 40-45 game scenario does not account for opportunities against LH relievers.  That opportunity presents itself in three-quarters of the other games.  Rocco could be very aggressive inserting someone like Bader knowing he will play great D until his next AB.  If that AB is against a RHP, Rocco can pinch hit and play Castro or Gordon in CF.

I also don’t see Gordon or Castro as being close to Bader defensively.   He is going to be a plus defensively whenever he is in the game.   You are also not placing any value to having this type of player on the bench as a pinch runner and defensive replacement.  He could be used to get Buxton out of the game when the score is not close and pinch run late in games that are close. 

The best case scenario is Buxton plays 80+ games in CF and someone like Bader plays CF against LHP and Buxton is the DH. I just don’t see the value of a bench / platoon player as limited to games started by LHP in this case.  He is good enough defensively that someone might pay him like an everyday player but that remains to be seen.

BTW …. Farmer has almost identical splits and Bader has more defensive impact than Farmer.
 

44 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

His WAR in ‘23, inclusive of his fine defense, was .6. Just not anything of interest for more than $2.5M. Why not just sign Taylor for similar defense - better power - similar average - continuity?………I don’t know what Bader will sign for…….another writer here had him at $10-$13M………don’t recall if that was per year or for two years? If either are correct (assuming 2 years), Taylor could be signed for same.

Taylor is a good option.  A big part of this is the medical report on Buxton.  Do they have sufficient cause to believe he will be back in CF.  If so, Bader hits LHP much better than MAT so Buxton / Bader are the better platoon.  

You are also only considering last year and you are doing so using one measure of WAR. fWAR has them as them at 1.0 and 1.7 respectively.  Of course, this is a cumulative stat and MAT played 31 more games.  This was Bader's worst year of his career and this was Taylor's best year since 2017.  I would put a little more weight on the previous year but I would also consider career numbers and age with MAT being 4 years older.