Does the Twins FO know the off-season started?

[wabene]

7 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

I was curious if there were still any other teams left that had been just as quiet as the Twins.

From the Fangraphs free agent tracker, 22 of 30 teams have signed at least one player to an MLB contract.  Of those that haven't, the Yankees, Red Sox, Padres, and Mariners have all been involved in fairly significant trades.

The other 3 remaining teams besides the Twins: The Cubs, Marlins, and Blue Jays.

The Cubs have signed Jorge Alfaro to a minor league deal; the Marlins have acquired Christian Bethancourt and Vidal Brujan through minor trades.  You can decide whether any of those moves really count as doing anything.

The Blue Jays are probably still the Twins closest rival for the title of last to act, having acquired no one who played in the majors last year so far, as far as I can tell.

True yes, but to me it doesn't matter. All that matters is the final result. We had to wait last year, but the final results were pretty dang good. 

[DJL44]

31 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

I think something happens in the first two weeks of January, so I'll say under by a bit, but I wouldn't be shocked if it's the over.

Twins Fest is on January 26th. They usually want something to talk about during that weekend.

An extension for Lewis, Duran or Jeffers would count as "big news" right now.

[Nine of twelve]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

There's risk in that strategy, though. He's not the only guy with pieces to move. Eventually other teams move on and you're left holding the bag you started with. He, and you, could be ok with that, but "not good enough yet" sometimes leads to a "we'll just move on then" and that's not always ideal either. The inaction to this point isn't in itself a bad thing, but it's not necessarily a good thing either.

There's risk in every strategy.

[Nine of twelve]

3 hours ago, CoastiePilot08 said:

Yeah you’re right. Getting beaten soundly by Houston in the first round is super. 
 

 

Significant nitpick: I attended both Twins victories in the first round vs Toronto.

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, wabene said:

Whaddya think? The over/under on the Twins first big move at 29.5 days from today.... 

I will take the under. 

[Whitey333]

Very typical twins off season.  Wait until the last minute to sign or trade.  That way it's usually cheaper but not always.  I disagree with those that think this team doesn't have any holes.  I believe they have plenty.  We lost 2 starting pitchers.  We'll 3 counting Mahle.  We need at least 2 arms in the bullpen.  We have a revolving door at first base with the oft injured kiriloff penciled in.  For 8 years they have been banking on Buxton, (who?) To play center field.  They even signed the part time player to an 100 million contract.  What lunacy.  We have question marks still at 3rd and 2nd.  Oh I  know we can put players there.  But does that mean they are good?  And the often heralded draft pic for Sonny Gray is a crapshoot.  Stats show that most draft pics never make it.  This team has a lot to do this winter.  They are just waiting for the right time to get it done.  At least we hope so.

[specialiststeve]

Funny how our world is so impatient and has to happen now... Twins like the rest of baseball are waiting for the dominoes to start falling down (Big name signees') before other teams including the Twins make moves. 

Patient Grasshoppers... for you youngin' ... a reference to David Carradine and Kung Fu! LOL 

For those old enough to know that ... am guessing you are not sweating this. ;) 

[wavedog]

Usual MO  - wait for the big items to flesh out and then rummage through the bargain bin after the fact.    I thought this year there might be a trade but I'll check back in early February like Punxsutawney Phil - if I see the same roster I'll hibernate another 6 weeks.    Not even enjoying the speculation this year.   

[Riverbrian]

Every year each front office paint the walls at this time. 

We watch the paint dry every year. 

 

[wabene]

9 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Very typical twins off season.  Wait until the last minute to sign or trade.  That way it's usually cheaper but not always.  I disagree with those that think this team doesn't have any holes.  I believe they have plenty.  We lost 2 starting pitchers.  We'll 3 counting Mahle.  We need at least 2 arms in the bullpen.  We have a revolving door at first base with the oft injured kiriloff penciled in.  For 8 years they have been banking on Buxton, (who?) To play center field.  They even signed the part time player to an 100 million contract.  What lunacy.  We have question marks still at 3rd and 2nd.  Oh I  know we can put players there.  But does that mean they are good?  And the often heralded draft pic for Sonny Gray is a crapshoot.  Stats show that most draft pics never make it.  This team has a lot to do this winter.  They are just waiting for the right time to get it done.  At least we hope so.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 12/20/2023 at 9:13 AM, wabene said:

Whaddya think? The over/under on the Twins first big move at 29.5 days from today.... 

good line!

I’ll take the over

[Major League Ready]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:16 AM, Whitey333 said:

Very typical twins off season.  Wait until the last minute to sign or trade.  That way it's usually cheaper but not always.  I disagree with those that think this team doesn't have any holes.  I believe they have plenty.  We lost 2 starting pitchers.  We'll 3 counting Mahle.  We need at least 2 arms in the bullpen.  We have a revolving door at first base with the oft injured kiriloff penciled in.  For 8 years they have been banking on Buxton, (who?) To play center field.  They even signed the part time player to an 100 million contract.  What lunacy.  We have question marks still at 3rd and 2nd.  Oh I  know we can put players there.  But does that mean they are good?  And the often heralded draft pic for Sonny Gray is a crapshoot.  Stats show that most draft pics never make it.  This team has a lot to do this winter.  They are just waiting for the right time to get it done.  At least we hope so.

If the team is as bad off as you suggest .... The right move would be to go into full rebuild mode.  

BTW .... I don't know how much more you could ask for from 1st year players at 2B and 3B.  Producing players like Lewis and Julien is the most essential aspect of building a winning team so to paint them as question marks is silly.  We could say Correa is a question mark after last season.  If you are looking for guarantees, you have chosen the wrong sport.  If you want a team that can fill holes with elite free agents, you need to become a Dodger fan.

[TopGunn#22]

This is how the Twins operate.  There has only been two players signed that I would have liked the Twins to be in on:  Eduardo Rodriguez and Luis Severino.  Otherwise, the market has moved very slowly with only "BIG" moves for the most part.  Dodgers:  Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow.  Yankees:  Soto (Verdugo is kind of "meh").  

The guys I want the Twins to be engaged with:  Giolito, Bauer, Montas on the FA pitcher front.  Adam Duval on the RH hitting OF front.  Bieber, Luzardo, Cabrera, Castillo, Miller or Woo on the trade front, are all guys that are going to end up somewhere, but none of them are guys I've seen or heard about something happening imminently.  

So while I'm impatient that the Twins haven't done anything yet, I'm not panicking because I've seen this movie before.  However, my "concern" is that once the dust settles on the "BIG" stuff (and we still have Snell, Montgomery etc...to resolve) the Twins will be slow on the trigger and good options will fly off the board and our big move will be to bring in Kikuchi or something similar.  

[Loosey]

This is not really anything new from the Twins.  And if I had to guess, the FO has been in contact with players they want to sign and teams they want to trade with but their markets won't be set until other signings happen, so once some more activity happens, then the Twins will pick up.... I hope.  Outside of keeping Gray I don't see any other players the Twins would have realistically signed off the board yet.

[Battle ur tail off]

Here is the thing. Rarely are good teams made with free agent signings, unless you go hog wild like LA or the Yankees do. The better players to be had are in trades. Generally free agents, are older and have their best years behind them. Basically they are being paid for what they DID, not what they WILL DO.

I'm fine with what the Twins have done so far, other than I would have tried a little harder to keep one of Gray or Maeda. Here's to hoping we can find another trade candidate that can come in a be a stud for us. I don't have a ton of faith in our system pitchers. There is really no one at AA or AAA that profiles as anything better than a 4, 5, swingman type guy right now. 

[Battle ur tail off]

17 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

 

The guys I want the Twins to be engaged with:  Giolito, Bauer, Montas on the FA pitcher front.  Adam Duval on the RH hitting OF front. 

These are actually exactly the kind of guys I DONT WANT. Washed up older guys that have been 3-5 starters. We don't need to dumpster dive. If you are going after pitching, trade for guys with lightning stuff and profile more towards the top of the heap than bottom. If you are just filling out 4 and 5 starters, do it from within. 

[TopGunn#22]

Trevor Bauer is 32 years old and has won a Cy Young.  Giolito is 29 years old and has a track record of having been a very good pitcher.  Frankie Montas is 30 years old, has been quite effective in the past and appears to be healthy.  These are the kind of guys the Twins traffic in. 

They aren't signing a 25 year old pitcher like Yamamoto for $325 million.  They MIGHT trade for a younger pitcher like Luzardo or Cabrera from Miami or Miller or Woo from Seattle but that will cost prospects...good ones.  I'm willing to risk a contract with a pitcher up to about 35 years old.  After that, it gets kind of dicey.

Exactly who are YOUR top targets Battle ur tail off?  And what are will willing to do to acquire them, either in FA money spent or prospect capital ??

[SteveLV]

Well, Battle, the Rangers certainly won the World Series with players they acquired in FA, spending big 2 years in a row and at the trade deadline.

[Battle ur tail off]

32 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

 I'm willing to risk a contract with a pitcher up to about 35 years old.  After that, it gets kind of dicey.

Exactly who are YOUR top targets Battle ur tail off?  And what are will willing to do to acquire them, either in FA money spent or prospect capital ??

That is where you and I will differ. I am not saying you are wrong, but it is my opinion. Surely the right guys can make it work, I just don't like 3-5 year deals on pitchers past about 31ish years old.

I don't have any top targets, that is for the FO to identify, but I am willing to let go of guys like Brooks Lee, SWR, Austin Martin, Kiriloff, Larnach, Wallner, Miranda, etc. 

Might think twice about Jenkins, Erod, Lee(in the end I would move him though because alot of our infield is set) but anyone else on that list is a no brainer to package if it nets you another Pablo Lopez type.

I do NOT for any means move Julien. I understand he can't play defense but he is the best OBP guy on the roster, has pop and is your perfect leadoff hitter. If you had another, he would have alot of value, but right now, I choose to keep him.

 

[Battle ur tail off]

31 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

Well, Battle, the Rangers certainly won the World Series with players they acquired in FA, spending big 2 years in a row and at the trade deadline.

Certainly can be done. And I am not saying what I believe is right or wrong, it is just my opinion. More risk though IMO, tossing out big contracts to old guys than it is to trade players, prospects, etc. If it doesn't work out, you are not out money, you are out a good ballplayer. There are new ones everyday being drafted, developed, etc. You can recoup the prospect capital much quicker than you can rid a team of a bad long term contract IMO.

[USAFChief]

13 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Certainly can be done. And I am not saying what I believe is right or wrong, it is just my opinion. More risk though IMO, tossing out big contracts to old guys than it is to trade players, prospects, etc. If it doesn't work out, you are not out money, you are out a good ballplayer. There are new ones everyday being drafted, developed, etc. You can recoup the prospect capital much quicker than you can rid a team of a bad long term contract IMO.

I'd have to say you have this exactly backwards.

Spending money is always less risky than spending players.

[Battle ur tail off]

18 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'd have to say you have this exactly backwards.

Spending money is always less risky than spending players.

Could be, and I get what you're saying. Giving up some guy that ends up turning into Mr. Super Stud can hurt for quite awhile.

Think of it this way though. say Twins went out and signed 2 players to 5/150s. They are in trouble for quite awhile if those guys don't produce, get injured, etc. If you are paying a guy 30 mil, he is in the lineup/rotation almost no matter what.

If they trade away Brooks Lee, it will be less than 3 years before his spot as a top prospect is taken by someone else that we either develop, draft, trade for, etc. 

[Fatbat]

We aren’t planning on drafting in the top 20 anytime soon so we shouldn’t trade away the guys that are going to be impossible to replace. 

[SteveLV]

There is not risk in spending money if you have lots of it, and there is no salary cap to punish you for bad contracts.

Take a look at the MN Wild right now.  They have 2 mammoth contracts for Paresi and Suter, neither of whom are on the team.  They took a big gamble, but with the hard cap it cost them in the long run.  

THAT is risk.  The Yankees or Dodgers dumping hundreds of millions is not a true risk in that the franchise can easily overcome spending mistakes.  Trading away young players who might be superstars IS a risk.

[Mike Sixel]

People realize they had their largest payroll ever, right? That Terry Ryan is gone?

[Eris]

The Twins are average or above at most positions or have players who are set at a position. The exceptions are LF (but Wallner deserves to be given the starting job) and pitching. It hard to improve this team without paying a huge price either in trades or free agency. 
 

The cost of good pitching has hit the stratosphere and acquiring a front level starter is a huge overpay.  I am not sure the Twins are in a position to take the risk of overpaying in prospects. Last year’s signing (Correa) and extension (Buxton) do have an impact on the roster flexibility. The Twins just signed Niki Goodrum to a minor league deal to provide infield depth. This possibly means that Farmer and/or Polanco are being traded. 
 

From this perspective not signing Kenta Maeda seems like a missed opportunity as he was responsibly priced and given his TJ, Covid, and how the Dodgers used him, did not have a lot of innings on his arm. 
 

Normally when the market is in overpay, it is best to be a seller. Unfortunately the Twins probably need to be buyers in this market and the players who they ideally would like to move have limited value. This is also where the lack of present value from the Berrios trade (Simon Woods Richardson) and the Jorge Lopez trade really bite. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, Eris said:

The Twins are average or above at most positions or have players who are set at a position. The exceptions are LF (but Wallner deserves to be given the starting job) and pitching. It hard to improve this team without paying a huge price either in trades or free agency. 
 

The cost of good pitching has hit the stratosphere and acquiring a front level starter is a huge overpay.  I am not sure the Twins are in a position to take the risk of overpaying in prospects. Last year’s signing (Correa) and extension (Buxton) do have an impact on the roster flexibility. The Twins just signed Niki Goodrum to a minor league deal to provide infield depth. This possibly means that Farmer and/or Polanco are being traded. 
 

From this perspective not signing Kenta Maeda seems like a missed opportunity as he was responsibly priced and given his TJ, Covid, and how the Dodgers used him, did not have a lot of innings on his arm. 
 

Normally when the market is in overpay, it is best to be a seller. Unfortunately the Twins probably need to be buyers in this market and the players who they ideally would like to move have limited value. This is also where the lack of present value from the Berrios trade (Simon Woods Richardson) and the Jorge Lopez trade really bite. 

Wallner was well above average. If he had 140  games, he'd have been second in fwar among all left fielders. 

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, Eris said:

The Twins are average or above at most positions or have players who are set at a position. The exceptions are LF (but Wallner deserves to be given the starting job) and pitching. It hard to improve this team without paying a huge price either in trades or free agency. 
 

The cost of good pitching has hit the stratosphere and acquiring a front level starter is a huge overpay.  I am not sure the Twins are in a position to take the risk of overpaying in prospects. Last year’s signing (Correa) and extension (Buxton) do have an impact on the roster flexibility. The Twins just signed Niki Goodrum to a minor league deal to provide infield depth. This possibly means that Farmer and/or Polanco are being traded. 
 

From this perspective not signing Kenta Maeda seems like a missed opportunity as he was responsibly priced and given his TJ, Covid, and how the Dodgers used him, did not have a lot of innings on his arm. 
 

Normally when the market is in overpay, it is best to be a seller. Unfortunately the Twins probably need to be buyers in this market and the players who they ideally would like to move have limited value. This is also where the lack of present value from the Berrios trade (Simon Woods Richardson) and the Jorge Lopez trade really bite. 

This is why I have no problem with the FO going slow this year. There is no panic when we have what we have and that is a very deep organization in most positions. Our biggest issues are simply question marks of youth and health. But isnt that really how it should be? A couple missing pieces is all we need to get to 90+wins.  That gets us to October and thats where we need to focus but we have until August so there is no real rush. 

[stringer bell]

50 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

This is why I have no problem with the FO going slow this year. There is no panic when we have what we have and that is a very deep organization in most positions. Our biggest issues are simply question marks of youth and health. But isnt that really how it should be? A couple missing pieces is all we need to get to 90+wins.  That gets us to October and thats where we need to focus but we have until August so there is no real rush. 

While I mostly agree, I don't think there's a lot of "next level" talent in the organization. If the Twins want to trade prospects, they have 4-5 untouchables and then a lot of guys with so-so value. With no free agent signings to date, there are about a half dozen slated for St. Paul who could be helpful and then (IMHO) quite a fall off. Trading someone slated for St. Paul with a call-up likely in their future (Martin, Larnach, Miranda, Lee) leaves the Twins pretty low in available depth, especially on the pitching side. 

If the Twins get 120 games out of seven of the nine projected starters (counting the two catchers as one) and 600 innings out of the five guys in the rotation at the start of the year, they should be fine. That doesn't always happen, especially with pitching staffs.

[CoastiePilot08]

Dodgers over a $1 billion spent on FAs this off-season. 
 

Twins at (checks notes)…$0. 
 

Baseball is something.