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Posted

Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweeted today that infielder Jorge Polanco is receiving increased trade interest from other teams.

This free agent class is considered one of the weakest in years from a position player standpoint and Polanco, were he a free agent, would be one of the most attractive pieces on the market. Polanco has two option years remaining on his contract for the 2024 and 2025 seasons for $10.5 and $12 million, respectively.

The Twins are looking for ways to shed payroll and have a glut of infielders. While they're apparently in no rush to move on from Polanco, trading him this winter makes sense for several reasons.

 


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Posted

If the Twins need money that badly, trade everyone (Polanco, Kepler, Vazquez, Farmer) for prospects. Otherwise it is pointless to trade an excellent player like Jorge Polanco for anything less than guys who will make the Twins a better team in 2024. We can splash around every metric and argument available to describe why Polanco is no longer the player he was in 2019 and 2021 and feel it is a good idea to trade him. A mediocre Jeimer Candelario just signed for 3/$45M. Polanco is the best infielder whose name is being discussed in possible trades. He still holds value and unless the Twins are rebuilding or get a strong offer (singular or as part of a larger package of players), just say no. Last offseason Max Kepler was in the news on a regular basis and his funky play into June brought screams of "release him". Well, Max showed up and the Twins do not win the AL Central without him. The Twins kept Kepler because the offers were not worth it and the same logic needs to be applied to Polanco (and Kepler, Farmer, and Vazquez) now. 

Posted

It really does depend on the return in my opinion. It certainly won't at all be a salary dump, and I have to think someone will be coming back that will show it isn't just a completely sell-off.

I'm curious if they do pair Polanco with a prospect, or if something comes back JUST for Polanco. 

Again, this offseason will be fascinating. :)

Posted

Brock, you follow the Brewers. Willy Adames has one year before free agency. Polanco is a second baseman and Adames is a shortstop which does not exactly make for a clean comparison.

I'm not opposed at all to trading Polanco if the return makes the Twins better in 2024. Still......

Which player do you see as having more value to other teams all things considered?

Posted

Here is a random thought I had that has no actual rumor attached or basis in anything I’ve read.

How much would the twins have to give, with Polanco, to get Max Meyer from Miami? He should be healthy from Tommy John this year, and his fastball/slider combo is special. Maybe a new regime in Miami would be open to considering it? He wasn’t this gm’s draft pick after all. 
I don’t think it would work as a 1 for 1, but man would his arm talent be fun to have. Being from Minnesota doesn’t hurt either 

Posted
2 hours ago, JDubs said:

Yeah bummer to see Polo go, but it just makes too much sense to trade him

I agree. If he could be trusted to be in the lineup for 130 games a year then it’s a different story. With his salary,  knees and ankles I just don’t see how the twins can keep him when they are looking to shed payroll and still get a SP. 

Posted

I love Polanco. I don't want to trade him. But the Twins have to trade someone if they want to acquire someone. And Polanco, a really good player and teammate, with 2years of inexpensive control, is going to be worth a fair amount to a team needing to upgrade. The FA market has very, very little for the INF.

The Twins aren't going to dump Polo to save money. But he might bring back a solid CF, or pen arm. Or he might be part of a 2 or 3 for 1 that brings in that younger, talented SP with upside that's needed/wanted. 

Frankly, as much as I love Polanco...and have been watching as one of my favorite players since he was in low A ball...I'd rather move him than the younger, cost controlled Julien or Lee.

But I'm not moving him unless it makes another part of my team better. That's the way it's supposed to work.

Posted

I am with those that want a difference making return to move him.  When healthy he is essentially an 800 OPS bat with good plate discipline.  He can hit from both sides and while his defense holds him back some he isn't a huge liability out there either.

I don't know what the Twins can get for Polanco and he might mean more to the team than what he is worth in trade.  The Twins were wise not to give Kepler away last year I hope they feel the same way about Polanco.  If he can't bring back something that can help this years team it seems more prudent to keep him.  They can shift guys around if needed.

If he can bring back something valuable then the Twins have the depth to move him. IMO to get enough value back they would likely need to trade Polanco for Prospects as the trading team would give up more future value for present value.  Then the Twins could allocate the money saved to get something else in Free Agency with that saved money.  While I get that strategy it could backfire because prospects fail.  It would be better to get an MLB return if you ask me.  Will have to wait and see if some team really wants him and is willing to give up something the Twins need.

Posted

He makes more sense than Max because you can clearly identify his replacement. I don't know how the outfield would look if there was a Kepler-shaped hole out there this spring, but we already know that the lineup can thrive without Polanco.  He's been a great Twin and I've enjoyed watching him play, but rosters are living things and the calendar is turning, turning, turning.

Posted
34 minutes ago, Cris E said:

He makes more sense than Max because you can clearly identify his replacement. I don't know how the outfield would look if there was a Kepler-shaped hole out there this spring, but we already know that the lineup can thrive without Polanco.  He's been a great Twin and I've enjoyed watching him play, but rosters are living things and the calendar is turning, turning, turning.

I am not a bat first gent, but while Farmer at seccond is a good glove, Polanco's switch hitting would be missed.

Posted

Glasnow helps in 2024 and has the potential to legitimately replace Sonny's 2023 performance. The salary hit is around $15m (difference between the two). Perhaps we throw in a decent A-Level lottery SP prospect (someone in the Top 15-25 range? Rays need salary relief and the Twins need a Top of the rotation SP. According to Baseball Trade Value, this is a level trade (with a lottery throw in).

Posted

You have to trade quality to get quality. It's really that simple.

I'd listen to all offers. And unless there are health concerns in the middle IF going into Spring, go from there...

Posted
47 minutes ago, Cris E said:

He makes more sense than Max because you can clearly identify his replacement. I don't know how the outfield would look if there was a Kepler-shaped hole out there this spring, but we already know that the lineup can thrive without Polanco.  He's been a great Twin and I've enjoyed watching him play, but rosters are living things and the calendar is turning, turning, turning.

Agreed, Polo is more valuable to the market while Kepler is more valuable to the Twins.  I could easily see a situation that has Kepler staying with the Twins all season.

It works out nicely for us.  Kelper's value in the outfield rotation is critical as he's healthy and dependable, locking down a spot.  Set and forget players are very nice to have.  I still think he could get some CF rotation time too.  Maybe 30-40 games depending on how things go.  It will be good for the team and his free agent value, maybe bumping to the QO levels if he keep hitting.

Posted
22 minutes ago, TNTwinsFan said:

Glasnow helps in 2024 and has the potential to legitimately replace Sonny's 2023 performance. The salary hit is around $15m (difference between the two). Perhaps we throw in a decent A-Level lottery SP prospect (someone in the Top 15-25 range? Rays need salary relief and the Twins need a Top of the rotation SP. According to Baseball Trade Value, this is a level trade (with a lottery throw in).

Polo seems like he would be a Tampa type player and Glasnow would be great but I can't see them just taking that salary for a year.  Even at a $15m difference its still 25m for a single guy and restricts other moves.  If we see any actual steam about a trade like this I'll get really excited because my assumption would be that they are confident in some sort of extension to go with it.  A $25m rental just isn't in their mindset.

By the way, I'm pretty much done with baseball trade values website.  Its a fun tool but the level of work it would take to keep up with all these players makes it a lark at best.  Glasnow is listed as low availability.  Everything we hear is that he is the second most likely player to be traded after Soto and here's BBTV.com-LOW availability. 

Posted
14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

If the Twins need money that badly, trade everyone (Polanco, Kepler, Vazquez, Farmer) for prospects. Otherwise it is pointless to trade an excellent player like Jorge Polanco for anything less than guys who will make the Twins a better team in 2024. We can splash around every metric and argument available to describe why Polanco is no longer the player he was in 2019 and 2021 and feel it is a good idea to trade him. A mediocre Jeimer Candelario just signed for 3/$45M. Polanco is the best infielder whose name is being discussed in possible trades. He still holds value and unless the Twins are rebuilding or get a strong offer (singular or as part of a larger package of players), just say no. Last offseason Max Kepler was in the news on a regular basis and his funky play into June brought screams of "release him". Well, Max showed up and the Twins do not win the AL Central without him. The Twins kept Kepler because the offers were not worth it and the same logic needs to be applied to Polanco (and Kepler, Farmer, and Vazquez) now. 

Polanco was a gamer year after year with a .270 BA through ‘21.

’22 he hit .235 and played in 104 games.

’22 he hit .256 and played like in 86 games.

Performance and availability are on the decline. We have Julien/Farmer for a platoon with Lee & Martin coming. He needs to be traded to free up $$ to apply to an arm.

Posted

Cory, here is what a trade for Max Meyer from the Marlins would look like based on BBTV ratings.

Twins

00
NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH
Max Meyer 24 Minors SP     0 0 0 16.7 13.4 16.7 20.1

Total Value:

16.7

Marlins

00
NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH
Jorge Polanco 30 Majors 2B   Low 2 31.9 22.5 9.4 7.6 9.4 11.3
Josh Winder 27 Majors LRP SP Low 5 7 3.1 3.9 3.1 3.9 4.7
Caleb Thielbar 36 Majors RP   Medium 1 6.6 3 3.6 2.8 3.6 4.3

Total Value:

16.90

Posted
12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I love Polanco. I don't want to trade him. But the Twins have to trade someone if they want to acquire someone. And Polanco, a really good player and teammate, with 2years of inexpensive control, is going to be worth a fair amount to a team needing to upgrade. The FA market has very, very little for the INF.

The Twins aren't going to dump Polo to save money. But he might bring back a solid CF, or pen arm. Or he might be part of a 2 or 3 for 1 that brings in that younger, talented SP with upside that's needed/wanted. 

Frankly, as much as I love Polanco...and have been watching as one of my favorite players since he was in low A ball...I'd rather move him than the younger, cost controlled Julien or Lee.

But I'm not moving him unless it makes another part of my team better. That's the way it's supposed to work.

Couldn’t have said it better myself. It just makes too much sense from a logic and payroll standpoint.

Posted

The Marlins make this trade because it gives them three useful pieces.  They get Polanco's switch-hitting bat at 2B (Arraez plays 1B now).  They get a swing pitcher in Winder who gives them some depth in their rotation after trading Meyer and losing Alcantara to Tommy John surgery for 2024, and they get an aging but effective when he's healthy LH in their bullpen.  They are considering building AJ Puk's innings as a possible rotation guy instead of closer.

The Twins do this trade because it gives them a young pitcher that slots in as a Ryan/Ober type rotation piece.  Meyer is 24 and he would be part of the Twins plans and rotation for a minimum of 5 years.  The Twins also effectively shed Polanco's $10.5 million dollar salary as well as Theilbar's $2.9 million (Caleb is the Twins most expensive relief pitcher by far).  This Frees up $13.4 million of salary that the Twins could apply to a Giolito or Bauer level SP.  Funderburk is replacing Theilbar's innings in the Twins bullpen already.  This leaves the Twins needing to replace 30-35 innings (that's all Theilbar is going to throw this season) and they can do that with Headrick.    

Posted

We always start with the assumption that Polanco will be traded for pitching.  I know I surely do.  But the Twins could also trade Polanco to the Brewers straight up for Garrett Mitchell, a 24 year old OF who would be our CF of the future.  He's 6:3 225 pounds and is 25 years old.  He's a big guy who moves very well.  He can play all three OF positions.  He was the Brewers #1 OF prospect until they drafted Jackson Chourio and injuries held him back these past two seasons.  With Chourio set to start in CF next year the Brewers have an excess of OF (Yelich, Weimer, Frelick, Perkins) and not much talent at 2B.

With the Red Sox stealing the opportunity for the Twins to trade for Tyler O'Neill (they got him for a couple of middling minor league pitchers) the LH hitting Mitchell would be an intriguing power/speed option for CF.  Even with Wander Franco possibly missing all of 2024 for the Rays, they've got a ton of IF prospects and would not appear to be a team interested in getting Polanco in a package for Glasnow.  

Posted
10 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Polo seems like he would be a Tampa type player and Glasnow would be great but I can't see them just taking that salary for a year.  Even at a $15m difference its still 25m for a single guy and restricts other moves.  If we see any actual steam about a trade like this I'll get really excited because my assumption would be that they are confident in some sort of extension to go with it.  A $25m rental just isn't in their mindset.

By the way, I'm pretty much done with baseball trade values website.  Its a fun tool but the level of work it would take to keep up with all these players makes it a lark at best.  Glasnow is listed as low availability.  Everything we hear is that he is the second most likely player to be traded after Soto and here's BBTV.com-LOW availability. 

Exactly. The metrics are off as far as what we can read. As far as just player value it seems to be close. But with news that comes in about teams and player wants it doesn’t take into account for instance how Seattle wants a more “contact oriented” player. Or that Tampa wants a close to ready player in a package. You could put a package together headlined by Brooks Lee and 4-5 young prospects that nets you George Kirby. Yet Seattle wouldn’t do that with a cost controlled young starter. Or certain teams payroll situations. It’s a good reference but doesn’t account for a lot of other intricacies of a trade.

Posted
16 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The Marlins make this trade because it gives them three useful pieces.  They get Polanco's switch-hitting bat at 2B (Arraez plays 1B now).  They get a swing pitcher in Winder who gives them some depth in their rotation after trading Meyer and losing Alcantara to Tommy John surgery for 2024, and they get an aging but effective when he's healthy LH in their bullpen.  They are considering building AJ Puk's innings as a possible rotation guy instead of closer.

The Twins do this trade because it gives them a young pitcher that slots in as a Ryan/Ober type rotation piece.  Meyer is 24 and he would be part of the Twins plans and rotation for a minimum of 5 years.  The Twins also effectively shed Polanco's $10.5 million dollar salary as well as Theilbar's $2.9 million (Caleb is the Twins most expensive relief pitcher by far).  This Frees up $13.4 million of salary that the Twins could apply to a Giolito or Bauer level SP.  Funderburk is replacing Theilbar's innings in the Twins bullpen already.  This leaves the Twins needing to replace 30-35 innings (that's all Theilbar is going to throw this season) and they can do that with Headrick.    

I like this trade.  It probably represents something pretty reasonable in terms of cost and return.  Unfortunately, many of us have a very inflated idea of what our players are worth and therefore only want to trade anyone for an "impact" player.  If we want an impact player, we have two choices, either trade an impact player (Lewis, Julien, etc.) for another one, OR trade a package of guys to a team that needs more players and is willing to give up an potential impact player.  Since we have major reluctance to trade from our players with the most value then we have to put together a package.  As someone said before, we have to give up something to get something.  On the team in its current iteration, the place of most strength is definitely middle infield.  It could be argued that we have more talent there than anyone else in the league.  If we can't trade anyone from that group, then close up shop and stop trying.  Based on age, health, and effectiveness, Polanco is probably the easiest to shop, and this is the time when we really benefit from the team friendly extension he signed a few years back - he's also relatively inexpensive for the team acquiring him, and thus increasing his value and attractiveness as a trade chip. 

Posted
42 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Cory, here is what a trade for Max Meyer from the Marlins would look like based on BBTV ratings.

Twins

00
NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH
Max Meyer 24 Minors SP     0 0 0 16.7 13.4 16.7 20.1

Total Value:

16.7

Marlins

00
NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH
Jorge Polanco 30 Majors 2B   Low 2 31.9 22.5 9.4 7.6 9.4 11.3
Josh Winder 27 Majors LRP SP Low 5 7 3.1 3.9 3.1 3.9 4.7
Caleb Thielbar 36 Majors RP   Medium 1 6.6 3 3.6 2.8 3.6 4.3

Total Value:

16.90

I don’t think Miami would want Winder at all. I’d imagine it would be Polanco and then another actual prospect. 

Posted

People want to trade with Milwaukee and Miami. Ok, here are a couple of trades that Milwaukee and Miami might consider. I hear calls for pitching coming to Minnesota. Now, I'm not suggesting these trades as let it happen, but attempting to put out what the other teams may find agreeable.

Milwaukee: Joe Ryan, Griffin Jax, Marco Raya & Jorge Polanco for Jeferson Quero, Abner Uribe, & Corbin Burnes. The Brewers are unlikely to trade Quero or even listen to offers for him.

Miami: Bailey Ober, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, & Josh Winder for Max Meyer, Sandy Alcantara, & Edward Cabrera. Nobody seems to know how the Marlins value Cabrera, Meyer, or Alcantara. Alcantara is out for 2024.

I will add one more - Seattle: Brooks Lee Or Ed. Julien, Max Kepler, plus two A or AA pitchers for Logan Gilbert.

None of these will happen but are more or less a reflection of the demands for pitching.

I do think the Brewers might accept a trade of Mitchell for Polanco, which was suggested by TopGun#22.

Polanco is a good player and if a trade returns a player that makes the Twins better in 2024, they have to trade him. The paltry $10.5M will not be enough to pay for a pitcher that makes a difference unless it is Burnes. The Rays will trade Glasnow for Jeffers but that is it and the Twins cannot pay Glasnow. Twins won't do that deal.

Falvey has his work cut out for him, but there will be opportunities and the team as it is now can compete too.

Posted
18 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

If the Twins need money that badly, trade everyone (Polanco, Kepler, Vazquez, Farmer) for prospects. Otherwise it is pointless to trade an excellent player like Jorge Polanco for anything less than guys who will make the Twins a better team in 2024. 

The Twins have greater needs than second base, where Julien and Lee are on the rise. Polanco's two years of team control make him a valuable trade chip. It's not (only) about payroll, but when you have cheap replacements with at least a reasonable chance of performing as well or better (remember the Polanco injury issues), it makes sense to trade him. Of course, they will not give him away, but if he is the centerpiece of a trade for a decent starting pitcher, it works for me.

Posted
2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The Twins have greater needs than second base, where Julien and Lee are on the rise. Polanco's two years of team control make him a valuable trade chip. It's not (only) about payroll, but when you have cheap replacements with at least a reasonable chance of performing as well or better (remember the Polanco injury issues), it makes sense to trade him. Of course, they will not give him away, but if he is the centerpiece of a trade for a decent starting pitcher, it works for me.

..... and me as I have stated dozens of times on TD. 

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