Jorge Polanco Drawing Increased Trade Interest

[harmony55]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Polanco is so much better at baseball than any and all of those Seattle players that it is actually absurd to have this conversation. Yes, Polanco has been injured a few times and had less than expected totals the last two years. Do we know of any other infielders on the Twins team who have had injuries? So 29 home runs is disappointing, right? Seattle would love that problem.

A real question is ... Why is Jorge Polanco so underrated?

Thanks for the feedback.

After 14 years in the organization, Jorge Polanco deserves his status as a fan favorite. For a variety of reasons, Polanco would not be a good fit in Seattle. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I’d argue he is a good fit with any team. He is not at all a salary dump if they do trade him 

[harmony55]

On 12/23/2023 at 8:41 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’d argue he is a good fit with any team. He is not at all a salary dump if they do trade him 

Could Jorge Polanco be this offseason's Kolten Wong?

Last offseason Wong brought similar credentials in his trade to Seattle. At the time Wong, like Polanco today, had played parts of 10 MLB seasons. Wong had posted 23.0 bWAR in 1,102 MLB games while Polanco has posted 17.3 bWAR in 832 MLB games (Polanco's first two MLB seasons were abbreviated). Their per-game bWAR totals are identical carried out to four decimals.

Defensive value accounts for much of the bWAR total for Wong, who has won two Gold Gloves.

In his two seasons before last December's trade, Wong had posted 6.5 bWAR and an OPS+ of 113 in 250 games. In the last two seasons Polanco has posted 4.8 bWAR and an OPS+ of 115 in 184 games. Again Wong and Polanco come out tied in per-game bWAR at .026.

Wong had a 2023 salary of $10 million while Polanco is owed $10.5 million in 2024 with a $750,000 buyout of $12 million club option for 2025.

The Wong experiment failed miserably in Seattle. In response the Mariners have since traded for Luis Garcia, Josh Rojas and Ryan Bliss while witnessing the unexpected (and perhaps unsustainable) emergence of Jose Caballero.

Seattle is unlikely to add Jorge Polanco to the pile.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

Could Jorge Polanco be this offseason's Kolten Wong?

Last offseason Wong brought similar credentials in his trade to Seattle. At the time Wong, like Polanco today, had played parts of 10 MLB seasons. Wong had posted 23.0 bWAR in 1,102 MLB games while Polanco has posted 17.3 bWAR in 832 MLB games (Polanco's first two MLB seasons were appreviated). Their per-game bWAR totals are identical carried out to four decimals.

Defensive value accounts for much of the bWAR total for Wong, who has won two Gold Gloves.

In his two seasons before last December's trade, Wong had posted 6.5 bWAR and an OPS+ pf 113 in 250 games. In the last two seasons Polanco has posted 4.8 bWAR and an OPS+ of 115 in 184 games.

The Wong experiment failed miserably in Seattle. In response the Mariners have since traded for Luis Garcia, Josh Rojas and Ryan Bliss while witnessing the unexpected (and perhaps unsustainable) emergence of Jose Caballero.

Seattle is unlikely to add Jorge Polanco to the pile.

Wait. You just compared Wong to Polanco? I can't remember which year Wong was the starting shortstop in an All Star Game? Oh, sorry, he only played 1 game in his career at shortstop. In fairness, Wong was once a good second baseman and Polanco is no longer a shortstop. They are different players, but nobody should be confusing Polanco in any way with Wong or the gang of four in Seattle now. The Twins have a guy that Seattle might be interested in but the Twins might not be interested in trading him in Royce Lewis. People should not be so quick to slight Polanco in their hopes of trades or hoping to save money.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Wong has been a better defender than Polanco for a few years now statistically.

Polanco is a far superior hitter 

[harmony55]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Wait. You just compared Wong to Polanco? I can't remember which year Wong was the starting shortstop in an All Star Game? Oh, sorry, he only played 1 game in his career at shortstop. In fairness, Wong was once a good second baseman and Polanco is no longer a shortstop. They are different players, but nobody should be confusing Polanco in any way with Wong or the gang of four in Seattle now. The Twins have a guy that Seattle might be interested in but the Twins might not be interested in trading him in Royce Lewis. People should not be so quick to slight Polanco in their hopes of trades or hoping to save money.

Distant history trivia: Who was the starting shortstop for the National League in the 2019 All Star Game when Jorge Polanco was the starting shortstop for the American League?

The correct answer, who is only seven months older than Polanco, posted 0.6 bWAR and an OPS+ of 62 in 136 games this year for a Twins' division rival.

[Parfigliano]

10 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

Distant history trivia: Who was the starting shortstop for the National League in the 2019 All Star Game when Jorge Polanco was the starting shortstop for the American League?

The correct answer, who is only seven months older than Polanco, posted 0.6 bWAR and an OPS+ of 62 in 136 games this year for a Twins' division rival.

Javy Baez?

[harmony55]

17 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Wong has been a better defender than Polanco for a few years now statistically.

Polanco is a far superior hitter 

Jorge Polanco has posted an OPS+ of 115 over the past two seasons while Kolten Wong had posted an OPS+ of 113 in the two seasons before his trade to Seattle.

[Cory Engelhardt]

We are talking about going into 2024 though right? 
And Wong over his career has been under 100 much more often than not. It’s been much more rare for Polanco to be well under 100, which I dare say hasn’t happened. Polanco’s worst full season he was 92. Wong’s average season is closer to that

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just to add;

Wong’s career ops+ is 96. His career high is 116.

Polanco’s career ops+ is 111, 15% better

[harmony55]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

We are talking about going into 2024 though right? 
And Wong over his career has been under 100 much more often than not. It’s been much more rare for Polanco to be well under 100, which I dare say hasn’t happened. Polanco’s worst full season he was 92. Wong’s average season is closer to that

Thanks again for the feedback.

The post that brought Kolten Wong into the conversation asked whether Jorge Polanco could be this year's Wong, noting that Wong last offseason carried credentials similar to Polanco's current credentials.

The post provided the eerily identical bWAR rates for their careers, but explicitly noted Wong's higher defensive value while implicitly conceding Polanco's higher offensive value.

Nevertheless last offseason Wong was coming off two seasons of 113 OPS+ while Polanco now is coming off two seasons of 115 OPS+.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I see Wong as going…

2020 = 90

2021 = 110

2022 = By far career year of 116. 
 

Polanco

2020 = Injured, 92, worst of his career

2021 = 125

2022 = Pedestrian for him 115

 

Wong is a fine player. Career wise, his best ever season is more an average year for Polanco. Even Polanco’s injury filled years are more like 92, not 47 or worse than Wong has shown

[harmony55]

22 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Wait. You just compared Wong to Polanco? I can't remember which year Wong was the starting shortstop in an All Star Game? Oh, sorry, he only played 1 game in his career at shortstop. In fairness, Wong was once a good second baseman and Polanco is no longer a shortstop. They are different players, but nobody should be confusing Polanco in any way with Wong or the gang of four in Seattle now. The Twins have a guy that Seattle might be interested in but the Twins might not be interested in trading him in Royce Lewis. People should not be so quick to slight Polanco in their hopes of trades or hoping to save money.

Kolten Wong certainly brought down Seattle's production at second base in 2023. In the first half of the season the Mariners ranked 11th in the league with 0.3 fWAR from second base:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lstats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&pos=2b&type=8&month=30

Aided by Wong's DFA on July 31, the Mariners in 73 second-half games ranked sixth in the league with a robust 2.7 fWAR (and a league-average 101 wRC+) from second base (the Twins ranked first):

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&pos=2b&type=8&month=31

The second-half rebound was fueled by Josh Rojas, Jose Caballero and Dylan Moore, who remain on the Seattle roster. The Mariners have since added Luis Urias, who would likely slot at third base if the season started today. Second-base prospect Ryan Bliss is projected to debut in 2024.

Like most teams, the Seattle Mariners have offseason needs but second base does not top the list.

[Cory Engelhardt]

On 12/22/2023 at 2:34 PM, harmony55 said:

In a one-to-one comparison with any of Luis Urias, Josh Rojas, Jose Caballero, Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss, Jorge Polanco might hold an edge despite Polanco’s decline past his 30th birthday..

But the choice for Seattle would be Polanco or the field of Urias, Rojas, Caballero, Moore and Bliss, The Mariners would likely choose the field to distribute the risk, especially at Polanco’s guaranteed $11.25 million (which coincidentally matches the combined projected and guaranteed 2024 salaries of Urias, Rojas and Moore).

The Mariners should find better investments than Jorge Polanco.

Well, we will see how it all plays out right? It's not like Seattle is the only team that would want Polanco on their roster. That includes the Twins. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/looking-for-a-match-in-a-jorge-polanco-trade.html

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/looking-for-a-match-in-a-jorge-polanco-trade.html

My takeaway from that article is the Cubs should be more interested in Matt Chapman. I think people here have identified the Mariners and Blue Jays as good fits.

[harmony55]

Last season the Seattle Mariners received 1.2 fWAR in 46 games from Josh Rojas and 2.2 fWAR in 104 games from rookie Jose Caballero. That’s a combined 3.4 fWAR in 150 games from the potential 2024 second-base platoon of the lefthand-hitting Rojas and righthand-hitting Caballero.

As a point of reference, last season 30-year-old Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games.

Seattle has offseason needs but Polanco would add little to the roster.

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Last season the Seattle Mariners received 1.2 fWAR in 46 games from Josh Rojas and 2.2 fWAR in 104 games from rookie Jose Caballero. That’s a combined 3.4 fWAR in 150 games from the potential 2024 second-base platoon of the lefthand-hitting Rojas and righthand-hitting Caballero.

As a point of reference, last season 30-year-old Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games.

Seattle has offseason needs but Polanco would add little to the roster.

Having to rely on two players to fill the need of one is quite inefficient in terms of roster construction.