Trends and Takeaways from the Big List of Twins Trade Ideas

[Nick Nelson]

We asked Twins Daily users and writers to submit their ideas for realistic offseason trades. We ended up with a list of 35 submissions. While each was unique, there were definitely some noticeable trends and commonalities.

Image courtesy of Michael McLoone and Jeff Curry-USA TODAY SportsMichael McLoone and Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

If you haven't yet, you can download the (FREE!) big list of trade ideas, which is a PDF compiling submissions from our community. Each proposal was explained, vetted, and analyzed. Anyone can access this installment of our 2024 Offseason Handbook, whether you are a Caretaker or not.

This call for imaginative yet considered trade ideas yielded a wide range of theoretical swaps, involving many different players. Some were off the wall; others seemed downright plausible. One person submitted a three-team deal involving six players.

I encourage everyone to read through all of the many ideas unpacked in the PDF, but here I'm going to pull out some themes and takeaways that struck us as we went through all your submissions.

Corbin Burnes is a good trade fit for the Twins
Clearly the rumors of Burnes' availability, with reports that the Brewers are willing to trade "virtually any player" following Craig Counsell's exit, have piqued the interest of Twins fans, and for obvious reasons. Burnes is a frontline starter capable of offsetting the loss of Sonny Gray like few others could. 

Multiple different trade submissions targeted Burnes, including a really well thought out and explained framework from Matthew Trueblood, who has unique dual insight as editor for both a Twins and Brewers website.

If Milwaukee would be down to deal Burnes and his one remaining year of control for Jorge Polanco and David Festa, as Matthew suggests, I think I'd take that in a second.

 

Payroll could be an impediment in making a big splash
The pesky knowledge of a looming Twins payroll decrease threw some cold water on a few otherwise intriguing trade ideas. Multiple people took a shot at acquiring Juan Soto from San Diego, but even if the Twins could muster a worthy package, it's hard to see how another $30 million salary fits on the books. The same is true to a lesser extent with Pete Alonso, another known trade candidate.

One popular name whose pursuit could be stymied by payroll implications is Tyler Glasnow. He's an appealing fit for the Twins as a frontline talent with one remaining year of control, but the same reason Tampa is looking to unload Glasnow is the same reason Minnesota may struggle to accommodate his addition; the righty is owed $25 million in 2024.

 

David Festa is a popular trade chip
In trying to conceptualize trades that would be considered realistic, many respondents included pitching prospects, which tells us they were taking the assignment seriously. Festa was named in six different Twins trade packages, and Marco Raya was in a few others. Twins Daily has these two ranked as the top two pitching prospects in the organization, fourth and fifth overall.

Minnesota's front office might prefer to trade exclusively from its position-player depth, but young arms are the currency of baseball. As I wrote in an earlier Handbook chapter, "If the Twins front office is big-game hunting this winter, these are names they’ll need to make themselves comfortable including."

People are eyeing Mitch Keller as the next Pablo Lopez
The Lopez trade worked out extremely well, so it's unsurprising that many fans are eager to try and replicate it. Pittsburgh's Keller was called out in multiple submissions as a target with similar traits: he's pretty young (27) with good-not-great performance and upside to potentially be tapped. Like Lopez a year ago, Keller has two remaining years of team control, and they don't figure to be that expensive.

Of course, for these reasons, the Pirates won't be giving him away. Players dangled in various hypothetical Keller trades included Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and both of the top two pitching prospects mentioned above.

Unloading salary for prospects looks like a realistic path
It's no surprise that there were a lot of different deals in the book involving Max Kepler and/or Jorge Polanco, given that both are logical candidates to be shopped this winter. Several of these proposals brought back immediate impact talent, but if the Twins are truly motivated to move one or both for salary reasons, a trade that brings back prospects might be most likely -- particularly if the Twins are using this step-back in spending as an opportunity to reload their longer-term pipeline.

One trade suggestion from user Cory had the Twins swapping Polanco for RHP Tom Harrington, the No. 6 prospect in Pittsburgh's system. Another submission, from "harmony," sent both Polanco and Kepler to Seattle for their top pitching prospect Emerson Hancock.

If you haven't yet, we encourage you to explore the Big List of Twins Trade Ideas and share your own thoughts, or any ideas for offseason trades that might've been inspired by others.

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[Hrbeks Divot]

If the Brewers are really willing to trade anyone it seems they’re likely looking at a complete rebuild. They might I’m be interested in Festa but I’m not sure why they’d be interested in Polanco as he wouldn’t be a part of a long term plan. And I’m not interested in including a hitting prospect and a pitching prospect for Burnes unless he guarantees an extension with us. I think it’s much more likely we look at someone like Seattle and pay a high prospect price for one of their young, controllable pitchers.

[jimmyc]

"There's No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect"  Even though you stole Sonny Gray for a Minor League rookie does not mean you should trade someone with value (Polanco) for Harrington, a high-A 'prospect'.  Why would Pittsburgh be interested in a veteran 2B with a year plus a reasonable option?  They are going nowhere in that timeframe.

[Karbo]

I would love to get Burnes, but is it worth 1 year of control for the prospects? I would feel more likely but the payroll crunch says no.

Keller is an interesting idea depending on cost.

I think even if they don't add a starter they should win the central. That said I would look into signing Mahle for next year, and maybe Maeda to bridge the gap?

[tony&rodney]

Nick, excellent write-up as usual.

My reactions: 1. Burnes is a decent target but i fear the cost. The package of Polanco plus Festa might not be enough for Milwaukee but I'm not trading Festa either. If i had to pick one position player and one pitcher to protect among prospects, it is Jenkins and Festa.

2. The information came out on both budget and Moran after this exercise. Soto makes no sense unless the budget reaches $160 million, and even then it is a stretch. Same with Glasnow. Losing Moran was a blow as he has promise and held value before the news of his elbow tear.

3. Keller is who the Pirates need right now, especially after news of Oviedo going down. Pittsburgh is unlikely to listen on pitchers. This is true for Cincinnati as well.

4. Seattle is a darling object for teams looking to add pitching. The cost could be high. Polanco and Kepler have relatively inexpensive contracts. They would be the top choice (Polanco) or one of the top (Kepler) players in their positions. Adding a couple of guys like Tanner Schobel to them might bring back Bryce Miller. Hancock has been lauded but has had some trouble getting his career moving. Is Hancock an improvement over Festa? I wonder what any of Julien, Lee or Lewis returns? 

5. We don't know how either the Twins or other teams value players. Trading Polanco and Kepler may severely weaken the Twins making our speculations moot.

The board clearly believes that a trade is the expected path to acquire a strong pitcher. Guys like Giolito and Severino would be possible additions later in the offseason perhaps. Can the Twins just stand pat and play the hand they have right now? I guess that is another article.

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, Karbo said:

That said I would look into signing Mahle for next year, and maybe Maeda to bridge the gap?

I think you meant to reverse this. Mahle will be ready in mid 2025. Maeda is good right now. 

Mahle would need to sign a 3 year deal, similar to what Chris Paddack has: $Y1=1M, Y2=$3M, and $Y3 = $8M. Caveat - remember that Mahle went down with a bum shoulder before he tore his elbow last spring.

[Cory Engelhardt]

32 minutes ago, jimmyc said:

"There's No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect"  Even though you stole Sonny Gray for a Minor League rookie does not mean you should trade someone with value (Polanco) for Harrington, a high-A 'prospect'.  Why would Pittsburgh be interested in a veteran 2B with a year plus a reasonable option?  They are going nowhere in that timeframe.

I don't know if the Twins will trade Jorge Polanco or not. I love his bat in our lineup. 

That said, Pirates fans/websites certainly are in LOVE with Polanco right now. So don't tell them that they are going nowhere. 

[Karbo]

56 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I think you meant to reverse this. Mahle will be ready in mid 2025. Maeda is good right now. 

Mahle would need to sign a 3 year deal, similar to what Chris Paddack has: $Y1=1M, Y2=$3M, and $Y3 = $8M. Caveat - remember that Mahle went down with a bum shoulder before he tore his elbow last spring.

That's what I said. Mahle for next season and Maeda for this season to bridge the gap. Just wasn't clear enough.

[mickster]

Best move we could make would be to lock up Gray on a FA deal,  Then Kepler and Polanco become tradeable with less minor league talent for a middle of the rotation arm.    If we want a big splash then Lee or Julien is on the way out.

[PDX Twin]

I'm not sure how much it matters, which I guess puts me in the "stand pat" camp. Barring disaster (e.g., injuries) they will win the AL Central. Playoff success, now that we are not guaranteed automatic losers in the first round, is all about the luck of playing your best at the right time. None of the division winners made the WS last year, and this is not unusual. 

It could easily happen that the Twins unload potentially excellent prospects for someone who adds 2-3 wins and allows them to win the division by 10 games instead of 7. But it's what he does during the postseason that matters at this point. Another Gray-quality pitcher would likely make a difference, but I'm not sure we can afford (in prospects or cash) anyone with a high probability of matching Gray's 2023 performance, which was far better than his "typical year." Maybe we'll get lucky and Ober, Ryan, or one of the younger pitchers will make that step up??

[Old Twins Cap]

I don't know, Sonny Gray, will someone go back and look at the actual games he pitched?

What I remember is that he pitched well in most games, but also had a lot of games with one bad inning.  An inning in which he lost the lead, gave up some bleeders, maybe a walk or two, and ended up losing the game.

He certainly did not hold down Houston when it counted, on short rest sure.

But, for all the talk, and talk, and talk, of trying to replace Sonny Gray, I'm not sure that's what the Twins want or need.

Texas wins it all, but how solid was their starting picthing?  How solid was their bullpen?  Twins walked all over Texas in August.  You get a chance, you take the chance.  Gray gave away as many chances as he executed on behalf of the Twins.

Don't empty the cupboard trying to find a certain pitcher.  For well over half the season, the Twins were unwatchable last year.  Their offense was putrid, striking out in record fashion.  If we got kids who can play, let them hit and see where the chips fall.

[TwinsDr2021]

32 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

I'm not sure how much it matters, which I guess puts me in the "stand pat" camp. Barring disaster (e.g., injuries) they will win the AL Central. Playoff success, now that we are not guaranteed automatic losers in the first round, is all about the luck of playing your best at the right time. None of the division winners made the WS last year, and this is not unusual. 

It could easily happen that the Twins unload potentially excellent prospects for someone who adds 2-3 wins and allows them to win the division by 10 games instead of 7. But it's what he does during the postseason that matters at this point. Another Gray-quality pitcher would likely make a difference, but I'm not sure we can afford (in prospects or cash) anyone with a high probability of matching Gray's 2023 performance, which was far better than his "typical year." Maybe we'll get lucky and Ober, Ryan, or one of the younger pitchers will make that step up??

I am not sure the Twins are guaranteed anything next year. Currently Varland, Ryan, Paddack, Ober and Lopez is the starting staff and the back ups are SWR, Headrick and Festa?. So if they lose a starter or two things could go side ways real quick.

On the other side, if any of the younger guys regress, rookies aren't good or injuries similar to the last few years there isn't a ton of depth there either. I think standing pat could put the Twins in a similar position to 21 and 22. And I don't see this front office putting themselves into that position again. So I see them doing some thing to shore up some depth, probably not in a big way but I see them bringing in at least one starter and maybe an outfielder with options (hopefully)

I see them bringing them in a starter so Varland can start in AAA like Ober did last year and I see them bringing in somebody to replace Gallo (Hopefully right handed and much, much better) to platoon with Wallner at least to start.

 

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't know if the Twins will trade Jorge Polanco or not. I love his bat in our lineup. 

That said, Pirates fans/websites certainly are in LOVE with Polanco right now. So don't tell them that they are going nowhere. 

Very interesting, I haven't come across any PIT website lately but I've heard that the fans like Polanco & that they serious to compete. While interacting with a Buc fan though it seems that they are more serious about is SPing so it's hard for me to see them letting Keller go.

[Cory Engelhardt]

19 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Very interesting, I haven't come across any PIT website lately but I've heard that the fans like Polanco & that they serious to compete. While interacting with a Buc fan though it seems that they are more serious about is SPing so it's hard for me to see them letting Keller go.

Yeah, Keller would be my personal dream get, and I don’t see them trading him either. I could be wrong. But there may be a match to find somehow 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Burnes I just don't see it. Not if we are cutting payroll by a few million. But if the Brewers are by chance going to retool a more realistic target, though not as shiny and flashy as Burnes, would be Freddy Peralta.  He'd look pretty good sliding in behind Lopez. And he's only making 8 mjil per and signed through 2026.

[TopGunn#22]

Freddy Peralta is younger and has more years of control.  His cost would be HIGHER than Burnes.  Of course the Twins can afford Burnes.  He's only set to make $11 million in 2024.  But it's his last year of arbitration, so he will be a free agent in 2025.  I would prefer trading for Burnes and signing him to a 5 year deal.  The TV mess will be figured out before the 2024 season starts, so 2025 and beyond the Twins are getting most if not all of the $55 million they are unsure of replacing in 2024.  

I would make the Polanco and Festa deal in a heartbeat.  I personally think it will take more than that.  But if you're talking about replacing Sonny Gray an acquisition of Burnes would exceed anything Sonny Gray ever gave us.  Sonny always had you holding onto your chair to see if he could get past the 5th inning.  Burnes will give you 7 innings.  Sometimes, even a little more.  he's an absolute stud.  

[ashbury]

18 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

But if you're talking about replacing Sonny Gray an acquisition of Burnes would exceed anything Sonny Gray ever gave us.  Sonny always had you holding onto your chair to see if he could get past the 5th inning.  Burnes will give you 7 innings.  Sometimes, even a little more.  he's an absolute stud.  

In 32 starts in 2023, Burnes made it into the 7th inning 9 times.  In 32 starts, Gray made it into the 7th inning 10 times.

Burnes covered 9.2 innings more than Gray, over the course of the season. 

The difference is not night and day.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

He's only set to make $11 million in 2024.

Fangraphs sets Burnes at $15.1 M and BaseballProspectus predicts him for $16 M. I don't know if that makes a difference for you. My belief is that the salary fits into the budget, especially if the Twins reduce through trade.

The Brewers will want a strong package that starts with an equivalent to a first round draft pick to offset the return for a qualified offer.

I have been interested in thinking of how to obtain Burnes from the beginning. I just don't know what the Brewers will see as a minimum return. My view of prospects differs somewhat from others. My focus is on guys with a huge upside and clear superior athleticism. Thus, I'm not very open to trading David Festa. I'm also not too open on Emmanuel Rodriguez. Perhaps either tips the balance for George Kirby but Seattle is not looking for prospects for next year or thereafter as main pieces in a trade. Despite not having seen Walker Jenkins play, I cannot see any way the Twins would even trade him straight up for anyone. 

The Twins should make efforts to see if they can get together with the Marlins for a mutually beneficial trade. This seems very possible.

[TNtwins85]

The pirates have plenty of position players and need pitching. Unless you give them a haul of close to ready prospects I don’t see it. No on Glasnow. If you’re going after Glasnow you are better off going for Burnes. Milwaukee and Tampa are gonna want prospects. We want to get rid of expensive players to add more money to the pot for CF and a 1B platoon. Seattle is who we match up with best. Unless we want burnes for a year and we have to do this again next year.

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Fangraphs sets Burnes at $15.1 M and BaseballProspectus predicts him for $16 M. I don't know if that makes a difference for you. My belief is that the salary fits into the budget, especially if the Twins reduce through trade.

The Brewers will want a strong package that starts with an equivalent to a first round draft pick to offset the return for a qualified offer.

I have been interested in thinking of how to obtain Burnes from the beginning. I just don't know what the Brewers will see as a minimum return. My view of prospects differs somewhat from others. My focus is on guys with a huge upside and clear superior athleticism. Thus, I'm not very open to trading David Festa. I'm also not too open on Emmanuel Rodriguez. Perhaps either tips the balance for George Kirby but Seattle is not looking for prospects for next year or thereafter as main pieces in a trade. Despite not having seen Walker Jenkins play, I cannot see any way the Twins would even trade him straight up for anyone. 

The Twins should make efforts to see if they can get together with the Marlins for a mutually beneficial trade. This seems very possible.

I like what you're saying. I was projecting Burnes at 17mil. For a team talking payroll cuts seems like a big chunk to take on. I know it's a bad idea to get attached to prospects, but I sure do not want to see Rodriguez traded. He's one of the only guys I've ever said hold onto him or bust. If he pans out I believe we will see a superstar player.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, TNtwins85 said:

Seattle is who we match up with best.

I agree with you.

It could be possible to work with Miami as well.

[TNtwins85]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I like what you're saying. I was projecting Burnes at 17mil. For a team talking payroll cuts seems like a big chunk to take on. I know it's a bad idea to get attached to prospects, but I sure do not want to see Rodriguez traded. He's one of the only guys I've ever said hold onto him or bust. If he pans out I believe we will see a superstar player.

I agree with you. He’s the epitome of a boom or bust prospect. We differ as I’d rather trade him now for something than cut him in a couple years after watching him taking up a spot in Minnesota and struggling to make contact. He adds the topping on the Polanco cake for Bryce Miller. I’m still a fan of Prelander Berroa and Hancock for Polanco straight up as well.

[TNtwins85]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I agree with you.

It could be possible to work with Miami as well.

Very true. Although we know they don’t need a second basemen. What could we trade? What do we get back? Cabrera? Meyer?

[TopGunn#22]

I agree with matching up with Miami.  We should be in touch with them.  I've seen the $15.1 million arbitration figure from Fangraphs and I've used it before.  Just this morning I saw Burnes getting $11.1 from Puckett's Pond.  I think the $15.1 is probably closer to reality.  Max Meyer wouldn't be a bad target, but he's coming off injury, and Cabrera has some major league experience.  I'd really love to get Sixto Sanchez tossed into a deal.  

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I'd really love to get Sixto Sanchez tossed into a deal.  

Always liked him, but the injuries....  Last summer he was supposedly healthy but topped out at 85 on the gun and was a couple below that usually. That was his fastball. Hard to understand what happened. i think he gets released and then the Twins could take a look. His spiral was confusing. Sixto, like Cabrera, is out of options. Cabrera will be with the MLB team if not traded. Sanchez will be dropped and sign a minor league deal.

The reason I suggested a Larnach and Winder trade for Cabrera is because I think all three need a fresh start. Then again, maybe that is way off.

[TopGunn#22]

I don't know if Emmanuel Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins will play an inning of CF when they finally make it to the big leagues.  I don't know if Austin Martin is the answer there either.  That's why I've advocated for a "sell high" on Joe Ryan in a deal that sends him to Milwaukee for Burnes AND Garrett Mitchell.  

The Brewers would do it to add a young, controllable SP with potential.  They would also part with Mitchell because there might not be a team in MLB that has more, young, OF prospects than Milwaukee.  A trade like this is risky.  You give up all that control of Ryan to get a stud #1 SP who you have no guarantee you can sign to an extension beyond 2024.  I believe the agent for Burnes is Scott Boras, and if that's correct that makes an extension difficult.  Still, we worked with him for Correa.

The other benefit is you would get a talented, young OF like Mitchell, who could step in and be your CF for 2024 and beyond.  You would also have a young OF on your roster to replace the expected departures of Kepler and Larnach.  

The budget reductions are going to be tough for Twins fans to stomach.  But I want the ownership and front office to take some big swings this off season, not just be overly budget conscious.  A deal like that for Burnes & Mitchell.  A Kepler for Cortes deal or a Polanco+ deal for Edward Cabrera and a FA signing of a Montas/Giolito/Severino type would set the Twins up with a very good rotation and bullpen.  

It's not just about winning the division.  It's about being true World Series contenders.  Texas and Arizona showed the baseball world it's possible.  Maybe the Twins don't do "all" this before opening day.  Maybe they make a big deal deal at the deadline.  

[Otaknam]

21 hours ago, mickster said:

Best move we could make would be to lock up Gray on a FA deal,  Then Kepler and Polanco become tradeable with less minor league talent for a middle of the rotation arm.    If we want a big splash then Lee or Julien is on the way out.

 

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I don't know if Emmanuel Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins will play an inning of CF when they finally make it to the big leagues.  I don't know if Austin Martin is the answer there either.  That's why I've advocated for a "sell high" on Joe Ryan in a deal that sends him to Milwaukee for Burnes AND Garrett Mitchell.  

The Brewers would do it to add a young, controllable SP with potential.  They would also part with Mitchell because there might not be a team in MLB that has more, young, OF prospects than Milwaukee.  A trade like this is risky.  You give up all that control of Ryan to get a stud #1 SP who you have no guarantee you can sign to an extension beyond 2024.  I believe the agent for Burnes is Scott Boras, and if that's correct that makes an extension difficult.  Still, we worked with him for Correa.

The other benefit is you would get a talented, young OF like Mitchell, who could step in and be your CF for 2024 and beyond.  You would also have a young OF on your roster to replace the expected departures of Kepler and Larnach.  

The budget reductions are going to be tough for Twins fans to stomach.  But I want the ownership and front office to take some big swings this off season, not just be overly budget conscious.  A deal like that for Burnes & Mitchell.  A Kepler for Cortes deal or a Polanco+ deal for Edward Cabrera and a FA signing of a Montas/Giolito/Severino type would set the Twins up with a very good rotation and bullpen.  

It's not just about winning the division.  It's about being true World Series contenders.  Texas and Arizona showed the baseball world it's possible.  Maybe the Twins don't do "all" this before opening day.  Maybe they make a big deal deal at the deadline.  

Not a fan of trading either Lee or Julien, both of whom are potential impact players and don’t cost too much right now. 

[Heiny]

Unless the return is mind blowing with a top of the rotation SP with multiple years of control,  I would not trade Lewis, Lee, Jenkins, or Rodriquez.  Anyone else can be packaged.  But the strength in our youth is our future.  There are pitchers out there that can help the team like Giolito, Woodruff, Montgomery, Rodriguez and others.  And we have players that we can trade for prospects to free up some cash.  That is up to the FO to figure out.  I don't expect them to stand pat but it wouldn't surprise me either.  I wonder how many of the better free agents that we will "be in on",  but will get away.  That seems to be a common occurrance. LOL.  Anyway, I did like the write up and the downloaded trade suggestions.  The suspense of the offseason though is one of the toughest parts of being a Twins fan.

[Twinsrtheworst]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I don't know if Emmanuel Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins will play an inning of CF when they finally make it to the big leagues.  I don't know if Austin Martin is the answer there either.  That's why I've advocated for a "sell high" on Joe Ryan in a deal that sends him to Milwaukee for Burnes AND Garrett Mitchell.  

The Brewers would do it to add a young, controllable SP with potential.  They would also part with Mitchell because there might not be a team in MLB that has more, young, OF prospects than Milwaukee.  A trade like this is risky.  You give up all that control of Ryan to get a stud #1 SP who you have no guarantee you can sign to an extension beyond 2024.  I believe the agent for Burnes is Scott Boras, and if that's correct that makes an extension difficult.  Still, we worked with him for Correa.

The other benefit is you would get a talented, young OF like Mitchell, who could step in and be your CF for 2024 and beyond.  You would also have a young OF on your roster to replace the expected departures of Kepler and Larnach.  

The budget reductions are going to be tough for Twins fans to stomach.  But I want the ownership and front office to take some big swings this off season, not just be overly budget conscious.  A deal like that for Burnes & Mitchell.  A Kepler for Cortes deal or a Polanco+ deal for Edward Cabrera and a FA signing of a Montas/Giolito/Severino type would set the Twins up with a very good rotation and bullpen.  

It's not just about winning the division.  It's about being true World Series contenders.  Texas and Arizona showed the baseball world it's possible.  Maybe the Twins don't do "all" this before opening day.  Maybe they make a big deal deal at the deadline.  

I really like the out of the box idea to trade Joe Ryan.  His value is sky high.  I'm thinking multiple trades though.