Ranking the Twins' 10 Most Valuable Trade Candidates

Julien is at least 6th on this list. Certainly ahead of Kepler and Polanco. I'd argue that Miranda, Larnach, Jax and Kirilloff would all slot higher in value as well despite struggles. Years of control is a multipler.

Kepler and Polanco are stuck in the limbo zone of too good and too cheap. They can't bring enough value to be traded and their production is too good to be backfilled easily. They both break camp with the Twins.

To me, looking at the list, the one that is easiest to cover for (if traded) is Wallner. This will be an interesting offseason, and I'd be willing to think an over/under of guys traded on this list specifically could be over 1.5.

This is a solid list and the Twins need to give trades some serious consideration, both for on the field reasons and for 40 man logjam reasons down the road.  I would likely include Eduard Julien on the list as well. 

My first thought is that one of Lee, Julien, and Polanco will be traded -- especially if the team isn't sure that Byron Buxton won't be clogging up the DH spot.  These three guys seem destined for the same spot in the field and all have pretty serious trade value, from prospect hype to young controllability to veteran presence.  Who gets traded depends on who the target is and what the situation is for the other team. A team in win now mode takes Polanco, but a team trying to build a core takes Julien or Lee. IF we trade for a young-ish controllable starter, one of these guys is the headliner on the trade.

My second thought is that Duran probably isn't this high on the list. Make no mistake, he's an awesome relief pitcher. For the most part, however, guys who are "just" a relief pitcher don't tend to be headliners in a trade.  I'm also not sure that the league is that sold on Wallner.  He could be really good, but he doesn't look like as much of a sure thing as Royce Lewis or Eduard Julien.

I don't think the Twins trade Festa or Raya either. They've worked pretty hard to try to develop some pitching in the system and these guys both look like they could be solid MLB starters down the road.

With the consternation over the budget for 2024, it would seem that trading is definitely on the table for the offseason.  I for one am completely a fan of trades - especially ones that can be win-win situations like the Arraez/Lopez trade. Let's sit back and hopefully watch something happen. 

Interesting list.  Like Jocko87, I would put Julien on the list somewhere in the top 6 or 7 (I am curious why you left him out, Nick), and I think Jenkins would bring back more than Rodriguez.  I think Jenkins is being viewed by a lot of baseball gurus as someone who could be a top 5 prospect in all of baseball by the end of the summer.  Kepler is an interesting case.  The question trade partners may have is whether he will be the player he was last summer, or more like the guy from the previous couple of years.  Still, his defense would be a positive.  Kirilloff simply has too many health issues to be on the list.  Raya is interesting as he has pitched a total of only 127 innings in two years.  I think he is one real strong minor league season with 90-100 innings away from being in top 10.  

Add me to the chorus of 'why not Julien' from a trade chip perspective. On the plus side of value, he had a nice rookie year at the MLB level, so he jumps some of the players where it is conjecture as to whether they can hit MLB pitching. He also does well in the OBP area, and there is some pop to his bat. Plus, he's controllable. The downside is defense - and the Twins' log jam of players who might conceivably play 2B, which is still his natural position. That said, for a team looking for offense at that position, he should be plenty interesting as a trade chip. I would slot him at 6 as well.

47 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Polanco, if they like, Winder - Moran - Sands - Rodriguez - Miranda - Larnach………..6 potential solid contributors and 5 under team control…….,couple former top prospects & a new power bat with potential!!

Three arms to help fill the void left in the trade. Jorge Polanco…….they may use in an additional trade? Opens some slots on our 40 man as well. 

For:

Corbin Burnes & Devin Williams.

They want to rebuild & shed salary - could be ideal!

Burnes as a 1 year rental with Williams for a couple years………add them to our staff & we’re elite!

The only player here that would pique my interest as a GM is Rodriguez - the rest are marginal prospects/major leaguers. Miranda was hurt/ineffective last year, Larnach is a replacement player, WAR-wise. Winder, Moran, and Sands are probably the 12th or 13th pitcher on a MLB staff.

25 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I can’t speak for Nick, but I feel that Julien is just scratching the surface and is, perhaps along with Lewis, the best offensive talent the Twins have. His incredible control of the strike zone and his consistent swing with power are a rare combination. For me, he is untouchable. The player, along with Lewis, that you build your franchise around. He’s the AB in the Twins order that I get most amped for!

But if that was true he would be very highly ranked in a trade value column.  While I do agree that he has significant skills I don't think he's just scratching the surface.  He's closer to his ceiling than anyone on the list.  He's kinda a sell high guy for me.

2 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I was perplexed as to why the article just suddenly quit after three players.

I understand the need for the caretaker concept but I’m a 61 year Twins fan who just reached retirement age and took social security and retired 4-5 years early. Except for small royalties from my music and book, I live totally on SS (which is 1/4 of my previous working wage), which means you can’t afford to pay for Twins content.

In fact, I gravitated to Twins Daily because the Star Tribune was pillaging my pocketbook and the Pioneer Press was not much better. I can’t subscribe to them and every other newspaper that I would like to read from that makes me pay a subscription fee to read even one article.

That said, TD is excellent. That’s my starting point.

It’s just disappointing to read the comments of my fellow Twins fans mentioning Julien and Wallner without having read past #3.

Perhaps TD could consider an affordable deal for the fans that started following the Twins from 1961 to 196x and have a genuine need. That’s how I got in on the Athletic, a ridiculously low entry point, might have been 99 cents a month.

 

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I hate the caretaker stuff.  Whats the point,  don't put it as a main article if everyone cannot read what the point of the article is.  Have a caretake section and move on.  

I was kinda wondering the same thing.  I'm a caretaker so it appears different to me.  Now I'm discussing an article with someone who hasn't read the article?  No offense to non-caretakers but we get plenty of talking past each other because we aren't reading each others posts but now we are discussing stuff people can't read if if they were inclined.  Odd. 

I'm a caretaker because the ad load is insane if not.  I'd be a fan of a caretaker only forum but now that I know most of this discussion is with people who haven't read it there isn't much reason to interact with it.

4 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Thanks for the comments! There are several on Julien. To be honest I thought hard about ranking but ultimately edged him more toward the "will not get traded" category - I think if they deal anyone to clear the 2B logjam, Polanco or Lee are far more likely. I do think he'd probably fit in around 5th/6th on this list.

What puts Julien in the will not get traded category?  Especially ahead of Lee, where I would value them exactly opposite.  Lee is far more valuable in general but even more valuable to a team like the Twins.  They can't afford to throw their lot in with one tool players, not matter how good that tool might be.  Lee playing solid defense at 3 infield positions and not having to be platooned as a switch hitter makes his floor closer to Juliens ceiling as an all around ball player. 

Add that to the example of trading Julien 1.0 last season I think he is among the most likely to be traded, which is another column.

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Thanks for the comments! There are several on Julien. To be honest I thought hard about ranking but ultimately edged him more toward the "will not get traded" category - I think if they deal anyone to clear the 2B logjam, Polanco or Lee are far more likely. I do think he'd probably fit in around 5th/6th on this list.

Thanks for responding.  I guess I am confused about the list.  Frankly, I don't think there is any chance the Twins will trade either Lewis or Julien, or Duran for that matter, but if Lewis and Duran are on the list, I don't think you can say Julien shouldn't be as well.  I don't think he is more untouchable than Lewis.  Love your stuff.

3 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I was perplexed as to why the article just suddenly quit after three players.

I understand the need for the caretaker concept but I’m a 61 year Twins fan who just reached retirement age and took social security and retired 4-5 years early. Except for small royalties from my music and book, I live totally on SS (which is 1/4 of my previous working wage), which means you can’t afford to pay for Twins content.

In fact, I gravitated to Twins Daily because the Star Tribune was pillaging my pocketbook and the Pioneer Press was not much better. I can’t subscribe to them and every other newspaper that I would like to read from that makes me pay a subscription fee to read even one article.

That said, TD is excellent. That’s my starting point.

It’s just disappointing to read the comments of my fellow Twins fans mentioning Julien and Wallner without having read past #3.

Perhaps TD could consider an affordable deal for the fans that started following the Twins from 1961 to 196x and have a genuine need. That’s how I got in on the Athletic, a ridiculously low entry point, might have been 99 cents a month.

 

That fixed income is definitely a bitch.  I did the caretaker thing this year but I probably won't renew.  My property taxes just took a big leap upwards and the money is better spent elsewhere.  A lot of the caretaker-only articles were heavily data centered which I don't understand or find interesting.  I'm about ten years your senior and I really like your idea of a senior discount.

22 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I assume you observed Julien’s vast improvement at 2B. I think he improved to a solid MLB 2nd baseman. Those "in the know" said he worked incredibly hard on his defense and it showed. He made a gold glove level play late in the season on a sensational leaping catch of a high line drive headed for a hit to the outfield. For me, he’s the player you build your future around. And, barring injury, Lewis.

If they keep Julien, they may as well trade Lee - only so much infield positions to go around, unless they decide to revisit the 'Lewis in centerfield' experiment. The advantages for Lee is he's a better defensive player (Julien's improvement notwithstanding), he's a switch hitter, and he's a couple years younger.