RonCoomersOPS

This. I'm not even sure the Mahle deal cracks the top 10 worst Twins trades ever. And even if it was the actual worst one ever, I still make it because the intent behind it was to address an area of need for a playoff run.

You don't want to lose Kepler for nothing, which is probably what will happen if we hold onto him into next year. That's JR-ball, and we've no reason to return to that. You also don't want him to have a good-not-great season next year, only to accept a qualifying offer and turn back into a pumpkin in 2025. We already have a couple of large contracts that aren't really performing and don't particularly need another. Any return won't be great, but we have the depth to cover his bat. We'll lose a fair bit on defense, surely, but given the need to add another plus arm to the rotation and the grim financial situation, I think you have to move Kepler for the best available return and allocate his dollars to the rotation.

I think you trade Polanco and Kepler for lower returns than they really deserve, in order to create playing time for young guys and also to free up dollars for the likes of Burnes, Gray, Nola, etc.

The Padres need pitching and and first base/corner outfield help. I'd dangle one of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober with Kirilloff and Larnach and see what happens. Soto would be an excellent get, and he's not going to cost *that* much as he's only got one year of expensive control left. I'm less interested in Alonso. Paying big bucks for a first baseman just seems like a Terry Ryan-level bad idea to me (reserve those big paydays for plus up the middle guys or plus-plus corner OF guys).

Larnach, Kirilloff, Ober, and Balazovic to the Friars for Juano Soto and Robby Snelling. Polanco, Kepler, and Connor Prielipp to the Mariners for France, Hancock, and Colt Emerson. Emmanuel Rodriguez, David Festa, and Tanner Schobel to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes. I'm a little over the TD budget, but right at the upper end of the budget that Falvey suggested might be available. This is a (potentially much) better team, though, than the one that just broke our playoff losing streak. C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Ty France ($5.00M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Juan Soto ($33.00M) CF: Austin Martin ($0.77M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) DH: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Yunior Severino ($0.77M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($1.00M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Corbin Burnes ($10.5M) SP3: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Emerson Hancock ($0.77M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.77M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 2.26% over budget

Probably has something to do with being better at his job than anyone else, inside the org or outside of it, who might try to come for his gig?

Twins make moves, acquired players don't turn into Willie Mays and Sandy Koufax, this site hates the team for it. Twins don't make moves, probably still win a weak division, this site hates the team for it. Whether the Twins make moves or not, they fail to beat a team who sold players by more than 20,000 runs, this site hates the team for it. You people make me really dislike baseball, baseball fans, and my home state.

That's true, but once Pineda and Gibson went down we found ourselves putting Randy Dobnak on the bump in game two. I love Dobnak and think his is a great story, but the odds of him holding up under the bright lights of a October baseball in New York were never good and the odds of him having sustained success were worse still. And then there's the whole Devin Smeltzer, Kohl Stewart, and Lewis Thorpe experiments that had to break just right to get us into the playoffs in the first place...

I don't think overrated is the right word for that team. There's no question that that team could rake, and I think they fully deserved the 101 wins they recorded that year. I think "unbalanced" is a better word. The 2019 team had a bunch of really, really good hitters that got to benefit from the juiced ball and an organizational shift toward hard contact for XBH over slap singles and using speed; on the pitching side, though, it was still basically Berrios, Odorizzi, and pray for rain.

He was hurt for a lot of the season, but when healthy Bailey Ober lapped expectations at least a couple times. Griffin Jax emerged from a mediocre showing as a starter in 2021, and became a reliable power arm out of the pen. It didn't all go according to plan this year, but the FO was really aggressive at the deadline and brought in players who should make the team much better this year. And they did it without totally burning down the farm.

I think the Twins are going to go all in on offense this year, and let some of their young guys give it a go in the pitching staff. I'd expect the 5th starter to be fairly fluid, based on who has the hot hand at the moment, and we might also see that from the 4th starter spot depending on Bailey Ober's health. I'd guess I'll have to do that once or twice with the #1 and #2 starter spots, too, but what the heck...I want to see how some of our AA and AAA guys do in the majors this year. I'm still moving Kepler and Polanco in order to get younger/healthier/more productive guys into the lineup, and the upshot is that they should both bring back some interesting young talent. I'm also not counting on anything from Kirilloff coming into the year, so he's part of my trade that brings in Murphy. This is probably an extremely high risk roster, but I think there's enough offense and defense here to offset some of the risk I'm taking with the pitchers. C: Sean Murphy ($3.50M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Eduoard Julien ($0.70M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) SS: Carlos Correa ($32.00M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Mitch Hanniger ($10.00M) DH: Jose Abreu ($12.00M) 4th OF: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($5.50M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP4: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) SP5: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) RP: Evan Sisk ($0.70M) RP: Emilio Pagan ($4.00M) Payroll is 7.21% under budget

Eovaldi got a QO today. Given the state of the farm and the apparently FO's ability to find guys deeper in the draft (see also Eduoard Julien), I'd try like hell to avoid signing guys like Eovaldi.

Arraez's knees likely let him play more games as a first baseman, and I like Gordon as a super-utility guy. Also, depending on how well he hits, Julien is potentially just a placeholder at second base for that Lee fellow we drafted this summer.

I have Polanco going to the Mariners in exchange for RHP Tyler Dollard, OF Zach DeLoach, 1B/3B Tyler Locklear, and old friend RHP Prelander Berroa. I also have Kepler, Urshela, and money going to Chavez Ravine in exchange for LHP Maddux Bruns and backstop Dalton Rushing.

C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($0.70M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) SS: Carlos Correa ($37.00M) LF: Austin Martin ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) DH: Matt Wallner ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Gary Sanchez ($8.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Jameson Taillon ($17.50M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) RP: Michael Fullmer ($4.00M) RP: Josh Winder ($0.70M) Payroll is 6.57% under budget