Week in Review: Battling the Big Dawgs

The Weekly Nutshell:
The Astros and Yankees have collectively made 11 appearances in the ALCS dating back to their showdown there in 2017. These are two of the league's powerhouses of this century: big payrolls, big starpower, big expectations. The Twins have long had their share of trouble with both, including October, so the opportunity to face off against both back to back during their latest road trip figured to be a good measuring stick for a Minnesota team teetering between buyer and seller status.

The outcome, a 4-2 week that saw the Twins battle hard and come up big in harsh environments, was a resounding success. If not for a rare implosion from their ace on Tuesday in Houston, the Twins easily could have won five of the six games. They scored their first series win at Yankee Stadium since 2014, and it was fairly convincing. Now they return home with a chance to bring real momentum into the All-Star break and bolster their case for addition rather than subtraction at the deadline.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/29 through Sun, 7/5
***
Record Last Week: 3-2 (Overall: 43-47)
Run Differential Last Week: +13 (Overall: -17)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (4.0 GB) 

Latest Game Results

Game 86 | MIN 5, HOU 4: Zebby Cruises Through Seven, Bullpen Holds Off Comeback

• Matthews: 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K

Game 87 | HOU 6, MIN 4: Ryan's 4th-Inning Implosion Sinks Twins to Even Up Series

• Ryan: 4 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K

Game 88 | MIN 8, HOU 3: Early Leads Holds Behind Bradley's Historic Strikeout Streak

• Larnach: 3-5, 2B, 3 RBI

Game 89 | NYY 5, MIN 2: Familiar Result in Yankee Stadium, Lineup Goes 1-12 with RISP

• Kreidler, Gray: 0-8, 6 K

Game 90 | MIN 11, NYY 4: Explosive Twins Offense Launches Six Homers to Sink Yankees

• Bell: 3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Game 91 | MIN 6, NYY 1: Ryan Bounces Back as Twins Score a Rare Series Win in the Bronx

• Ryan: 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 9 K

NEWS & NOTES

A couple of key players who've been sidelined are tracking toward returns at or around the All-Star break. 

Bailey Ober moved his rehab up to Triple-A on Saturday and threw five innings (76 pitches) against Buffalo. He gave up four earned runs but struck out five with no walks. In terms of workload build-up, Ober is pretty much ready to go and he could make his next start for the Twins, which would likely push Mike Paredes to long relief or back to the minors. Paredes has done an admirable job filling in.

Catching Ober in his Saturday start for St. Paul was Ryan Jeffers, back in action for a second game in his own rehab after losing six weeks to a fractured hamate. Jeffers exhibited no rust or ill effect from the injury, at least in terms of his swing: he notched two hits in each of his first two games back, including a homer against old friend Simeon Woods Richardson.

While Ober and Jeffers should be back soon, Anthony Banda won't be. We learned early in the week that the injury that forced him out of last Sunday's game is a significant lat strain that will keep him out for months. That means his season might be over, in a tough blow for a relief corps that was already thin on dependable options. For now, Cody Laweryson has returned to fill the open bullpen spot.

For a second straight year, Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan were named to the American League All-Star team. Unfortunately, Buxton's ability to participate is in doubt after he exited Sunday's game with an aggravation of his hip injury, suffered while suffered while sliding into second on a steal attempt. 

HIGHLIGHTS

The Twins offense is not slowing down as the calendar flips to July. They scored 36 runs in six games, adding onto their American League-leading total and distancing themselves from the second-place Yankees by outsourcing them 19-10 in their own house..

Josh Bell led the charge by crushing four home runs, including a pair in Saturday's blowout win. He also doubled twice and drove in nine runs across six games. His season is going pretty much exactly to script, with a slow start giving way to a scorching midsummer surge. Bell is off to a stellar start in July after posting an .891 OPS in June. Notably, the Twins have completely given up on using him defensively — his last start anywhere other than designated hitter was in May. But this output will absolutely play at DH.

A more unexpected source of power: Luke Keaschall. During this road trip at least, he fit the bill of a right fielder, homering twice with a double among his five hits in 13 at-bats. Keaschall has as many extra-base hits in the first five days of July (3 in 16 PA) as he did in the entire month of June (3 in 93 PA). He saw zero action in the infield last week.

Some other strong offensive performances from the road trip:

• Kody Clemens went deep three times, pushing his season total to to 16 as he hunts a 30-homer season. He drove in nine runs and lifted his OPS to .799 on the season. The defensively versatile Clemens has settled in, for now, as Minnesota's regular second baseman, with his last nine consecutive starts coming there. His bat is a big asset at the position; only five qualified MLB second basemen have an OPS above .800.
• Trevor Larnach kept things clicking at the top of the lineup, collecting six hits (including a double and home run) along with four walks in 22 plate appearances. He's slashing .421/.476/.684 in his past 15 games, and his .368 wOBA on the season led all AL left fielders entering play on Sunday (250+ PA). 
• The catcher position continues to produce in the absence of Jeffers, with Victor Caratini and Alex Jackson each popping a home run. In one of the season's most surprising twists, Minnesota has the highest OPS in the AL at the catcher position since Jeffers went down. I'm curious to see how the Twins handle his return. Jackson has looked good enough that you don't want to expose him to waivers. Maybe they carry three catchers for a couple weeks and look to flip Jeffers at the deadline?

When you look at the Twins offense, which is relatively short on clear standout hitters, you might wonder just how they've been able to pace the AL in run-scoring. It comes down to examples like these: players such as Clemens and Larnach and Caratini who have been vastly better than the norm at their positions. That and Bell being one of the game's best hitters since the start of June.

On the pitching side, Ryan bounced back brilliantly from Tuesday's midgame meltdown with one of his finest outings of the season on Sunday, striking out nine over seven scoreless at Yankee Stadium. On Wednesday, Taj Bradley struck out 11 Astros over five innings in a series-clinching victory, setting a franchise record by recording 10 consecutive outs via the K. Following a bit of a stumble off the injured list, he's turned in three strong outings in a row, striking out 22 over 17 innings with just 10 hits and one home runs allowed. The control could be a little better but the stuff is back in peak form.

Minnesota's bullpen was fairly effective coming off one of its worst weeks of the season. Kody Funderburk tossed a couple of much-needed scoreless (and walkless) innings in New York on Friday. Marco Raya followed with two shutout frames on Saturday. Andrew Morris, Taylor Rogers and Laweryson combined for 5 ⅓ innings with no runs allowed.

LOWLIGHTS

While the lineup has been highly effective overall, it is plagued by one clear and seemingly correctable weakness: the shortstop position. Tristan Gray continues to start on regular basis, despite being one of the worst players in the league. Last week he went hitless in 14 at-bats, striking out six times with one walk and lowering his OPS to .601.

Gray hasn't homered since June 1st, and he's batting .210 with two doubles and two walks over 65 plate appearances since then. Poor plate discipline, no power, and bad defense. There have been no redeeming aspects of Gray's performance, making the team's unwavering faith in him one of the bigger head-scratchers of this season. Kaelen Culpepper can't come up soon enough, but unfortunately he hasn't played in a week since taking a pitch to the hand with the Saints.

In the meantime, Ryan Kreidler certainly looks like the superior option, even as his bat gravitates back to earth. He went just 3-for-24 last week, dropping his OPS by more than 100 points. With Buxton looking likely to miss more time, will Kreidler slide back to center field or will the Twins make a move to add outfield depth (say, Alan Roden) and keep Kreidler at short? The logical move seems obvious, but for what it's worth, Roden didn't get pulled from the lineup for St. Paul on Sunday. I don't think an increased opportunity for Kyler Fedko, off to an 0-for-14 start as a big-leaguer, is going to be the answer.

TRENDING STORYLINE

This is the moment for the 2026 Twins to make their stand. There are 22 games until the trade deadline, at which point the front office will face some weighty decisions. They're very much on the border of buy or sell status, with a sub-.500 record that nevertheless puts them well within range of a postseason spot. The rebuild was already put into motion, but this team has done its part to remain relevant and earn belief. You can't take for granted an opportunity to make a push with multiple All-Stars.

What's interesting is that some of the players who've been pivotal in keeping the Twins afloat are also among their most viable (and low-risk) trade chips. Clemens, Bell and Larnach have been on fire but don't necessarily fit into the team's future plans. Jeffers was arguably their best player before going down but he's an impending free agent and the catcher position has held up fine without him. 

Fascinating decisions are looming for Jeremy Zoll and Co. approaching his first deadline in the head chair. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Twins attempt to thread the needle between buying and selling, and in some ways I think it's an advisable course of action. But this also might be their last chance to trade Ryan for premium value, so if you're going to go for it, you've got to have a certain level of confidence. The Twins need to make their case by staying in the fight over the next month, starting with a key final home stand heading into the All-Star break. 

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins conquered their demons in Houston and New York, but now they'll confront another one: those eternally pesky Cleveland Guardians. Minnesota took two of three from the Guards on the road back in early May, but will now welcome them to Target Field for the first time. Cleveland is tangling with the White Sox atop the Central, four games in front of the Twins, raising the implications of this series. The down-bad Angels, who are characteristically almost 20 games below .500, will give the Twins a chance to finish the first half strong.

TUESDAY, JULY 7: GUARDIANS @ TWINS — LHP Joey Cantillo v RHP Taj Bradley
WEDNESDAY, JULY 8: GUARDIANS @ TWINS — RHP Slade Cecconiv. TBD
THURSDAY, JULY 9: GUARDIANS @ TWINS — RHP Gavin Williams v. RHP Mike Paredes
FRIDAY, JULY 10: ANGELS @ TWINS — LHP Sam Aldegheri v. RHP Zebby Matthews
SATURDAY, JULY 11: ANGELS @ TWINS — RHP Ryan Johnson v. RHP Joe Ryan
SUNDAY, JULY 12: ANGELS @ TWINS — RHP Jose Soriano v. RHP Taj Bradley