How Much Will the Twins Spend on a Single Free Agent?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins enter the offseason with a few essential needs. Derek Falvey will need to supplement a roster that made noise in the American League Division Series and to do so, fresh faces will need to be brought in.

What's the most we might expect the team to spend on a single free-agent splash?

Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Rocco Baldelli’s team went through plenty of ebbs and flows last season. Although they were arguably the best team in the AL Central, wire to wire, the performance saw ups and downs. A handful of veterans provided a steadying presence, and there were more than a few youngsters who stepped up in big spots.

With the departure of eight key players, the biggest being Sonny Gray, Minnesota has some significant holes to fill. It remains to be seen what the payroll will look like in 2024, and there is some uncertainty there, given the number of questions facing the Twins from a TV revenue standpoint. But if they're willing to at least get back to the payroll level from this year, they're going have some room for a potential major signing.

If ever there was a time do it, it's now. The Twins are heading straight into a clear contention window, meaning a successful big-name signing has the potential for maximum impact.

How they handle this free agent crop remains to be seen, but these are some of the names that stand out if the front office has a green light to go big.

SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Of the names listed, this is the most unlikely. Yamamoto has been Japan’s best pitcher in the past two seasons, and he looked dominant during the World Baseball Classic. At just 25 years old, he will sign a long-term deal with someone. That hasn’t been the Twins' traditional plan for pitchers, but this could be a spot where they find value, given the mix of youth and talent. He should be expected to eclipse a $200 million deal, which is a lot to ask Minnesota after paying for Correa, but getting him for $30 million AAV or less would be a big win.

SP Jordan Montgomery
Maybe I’m underestimating what his market will be, and he certainly earned himself more dollars this postseason, but I think both Aaron Nola and Blake Snell get paid more. If that is the case, Montgomery is the kind of arm Minnesota could target. They’d need to shell out more than $100 million, and it will be a long-term deal for a guy who’s already 30, but he’s less of a risk than bringing Gray back for more than two years would be. Montgomery would also give the Twins a lefty in the rotation.

SP Eduardo Rodriguez
This is probably closer to the threshold on pitching for the Twins. Rodriguez likely will come in under $100 million, and he probably isn’t getting an opt-out clause this time. You’d need to do a significant amount of background work on health, both mentally and physically, to make sure Rodriguez is ready to go. He can be an excellent add for Minnesota, though, and already has shown an ability to pitch well in the American League Central.

SP Michael Wacha
Likely available for something closer to a two-year deal, Wacha doesn’t have close to the upside of Gray, but he could slot in nicely as a number three pitcher for Minnesota. Lucas Giolitio and Seth Lugo are likely both within this range as well. Much lower than this, from a talent perspective, put the Twins in a weird spot trying to replace Gray, but this is a good mix of dollars and talent to tread water. Getting any of these arms for around $15 million yearly would work. 

Only within the context of Minnesota's history in free agency would guys like Wacha, Giolito and Lugo qualify as "big-money signings" but here we are.

It’s hard to believe that the Twins would get into a bidding war for someone like Nola, Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, or Josh Hader. Those types will have plenty of suitors, and they’ll likely command the most dollars among players at their positions. It stands to reason that Minnesota will spend. They have shown consistency in that regard, but they’ll pick their spots and be calculated with who they choose to go after.

Ultimately, I think anything over $22 million from an average annual value perspective will be a stretch. That means the top of the pitching market is something the Twins will shy away from. They could bring in an arm via trade, as they did with Pablo Lopez, and they would then have the opportunity to extend that player. Assuming something like $50 million exists in the budget for 2024, spending half or more on one player probably isn’t happening.

There are bats that should be available range this year, though, I think it’s unlikely Minnesota finds any of them worthy of a long-term deal. Finding someone for a right-handed bopping role shouldn't cost substantially, and that's where the Twins stand to benefit most. Regardless of it being in the field or on the mound, handing out a contract totaling more than $60 million over the duration seems unlikely. It may be an offseason of hired help on one-year deals.

Last season, aside from Correa, the most Minnesota spent on a single player was Vazquez's $30 million, which was broken down to three $10 million annual terms. I’d bet the high water mark for 2024 is much closer to that total than it is to $20 million or more. If there’s a way to get Gray back on a two-year deal, he’ll probably be the standard, but that would reflect good fortune for the Twins.

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[Jocko87]

I'm out on Rodriguez for a few reasons but having shown the ability to pitch in the AL Central doesn't assuage any of them.

[ashbury]

I'll make Kenta Maeda my benchmark.  Whatever he ends up getting on an annual basis, the Twins won't exceed that.  If they get him, that's their limit for anyone; if they don't get him, it will be because they weren't willing to go even that high for anyone.  Depending on whether you look at the TD handbook or MLBTR, that could be anywhere from $12M (1 year) to $18M (times 2 years).

I'm prepared to be surprised of course.

[Fatbat]

The rumor mill already says the Twins won’t spend big in FA.  I think Montgomery is gettable for $17-19M but you would have to go at least 4 years because someone else will.  Seems like they will go back to doing a reclamation project or two again in the $2-6M range. Mahle might be one of them if they think he will be ready in August 2024.  I would bet against them doing nothing with pitching. 

[Craig Arko]

The same as on a married free agent?

[farmerguychris]

I know this is what we're supposed to do in the offseason.  Look at who is available that matches our possible needs.  But I just can't see them spending anything until they know whats going to happen with tv revenues.  I run a business, and I can't imagine setting my future expense budget until I know what my next year's revenues will be looking like.  

My business is not baseball, and its not apples to apples, but with us already having about 90M committed, I can't imagine they'll be in any rush (not that they ever are) to sign up for the first FA off the board without knowing how much new tv revenue we'll have coming in.

I'd be surprised and pleased if they signed one FA over $10M.  Otherwise may be a year of young guys (Martin?) getting a shot and hopefully making a splash - IMO.

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I know this is what we're supposed to do in the offseason.  Look at who is available that matches our possible needs.  But I just can't see them spending anything until they know whats going to happen with tv revenues.  I run a business, and I can't imagine setting my future expense budget until I know what my next year's revenues will be looking like.  

My business is not baseball, and its not apples to apples, but with us already having about 90M committed, I can't imagine they'll be in any rush (not that they ever are) to sign up for the first FA off the board without knowing how much new tv revenue we'll have coming in.

I'd be surprised and pleased if they signed one FA over $10M.  Otherwise may be a year of young guys (Martin?) getting a shot and hopefully making a splash - IMO.

I'm sure they have an estimate for their TV contract. They don't know final 2024 in-person attendance numbers yet but that won't stop them from making an estimate.

[rv78]

3 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

 

I'd be surprised and pleased if they signed one FA over $10M.  Otherwise may be a year of young guys (Martin?) getting a shot and hopefully making a splash - IMO.

Even if it was another Joey Gallo? My wishes are not related to dollars but instead talent. A trait this FO seems to over-look when signing expensive veterans.

[Jim wyllie]

They need to spend with the big boys this off-season, budget be damned.   The division is wide open and if they bring in bigger names they will sell more tickets and more merchandise.   That increases overall revenue as well.   You have to spend money to make money

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

My guess is that we'll sign one of the best available FA in January. Whoever that is will be up to the 29 other clubs.

[Brandon27]

Not worth signing anyone if they going cut payroll better off blowup the roster start over from scratch and lose 90+ games 

[Ted Schwerzler]

9 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

I know this is what we're supposed to do in the offseason.  Look at who is available that matches our possible needs.  But I just can't see them spending anything until they know whats going to happen with tv revenues.  I run a business, and I can't imagine setting my future expense budget until I know what my next year's revenues will be looking like.  

The biggest issue I have with cutting payroll, which should have always been expected, is to what extent. You run A business. The Pohlad's run multiple and have revenue streams from everywhere. What they direct the Twins with is largely inherited dollars, and the team is their hedge fund. Cutting drastically, off such an integral season, solely because of TV revenues would be disheartening. They don't need to spend to compete, and adding can be done through trades, but I'm nervous about what we see play out.

[Ted Schwerzler]

5 hours ago, rv78 said:

Even if it was another Joey Gallo? My wishes are not related to dollars but instead talent. A trait this FO seems to over-look when signing expensive veterans.

Not one they have missed on when acquiring them though. Definitely feel trades are the avenue this offseason.

[Doctor Wu]

I gotta say, with the ever-changing landscape of baseball,  factoring in the increasingly high salaries/deals that are offered to free agents. any attempt to put numbers on these players is a futile exercise. Just go out and find some above average arms. Money will find a way, even with the Twins. 

[Karbo]

11 hours ago, Jim wyllie said:

They need to spend with the big boys this off-season, budget be damned.   The division is wide open and if they bring in bigger names they will sell more tickets and more merchandise.   That increases overall revenue as well.   You have to spend money to make money

Easy to say when its not your money.

[Karbo]

I expect them to make an offer to Mahle similar to Pinieda and Paddock. I think they probably will offer Maeda a deal too. Of course it depends on what Gray decides. Barring Gray and Maeda deals they would probably go to trading for someone, maybe with an expiring contract. They like a few guys coming up through the system, so I don't see them spending big. Of course, at this point its all just speculation.

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, Brandon27 said:

Not worth signing anyone if they going cut payroll better off blowup the roster start over from scratch and lose 90+ games 

Are we really going to hear the "if they don't spend big we will lose 90+ games" BS again this off-season.  Our top 6 position players by WAR made a total of $12M.  Correa and Buxton produced under 2 WAR for $48M.  

[terrydactyls]

At the end of the season, the Twins had 10 free agents (according to Sportac) with salaries totalling about $42M.  I plus they have two options players worth $20.5M available for trade (replaceable with Julien and Austin Martin).  That leaves the Twins with over $62M of available salary money - assuming the budget stays the same.  I think the Twins can afford Yoshinobu Yamamoto (if Maki likes him) and a very good RH outfielder.

[Fatbat]

9 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

At the end of the season, the Twins had 10 free agents (according to Sportac) with salaries totalling about $42M.  I plus they have two options players worth $20.5M available for trade (replaceable with Julien and Austin Martin).  That leaves the Twins with over $62M of available salary money - assuming the budget stays the same.  I think the Twins can afford Yoshinobu Yamamoto (if Maki likes him) and a very good RH outfielder.

At most, they will spend $140M. Probably closer to $130M.  I’m hoping they bring up 3 rookies. That will be much more exciting than 3 Gallos.

[terrydactyls]

4 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

At most, they will spend $140M. Probably closer to $130M.  I’m hoping they bring up 3 rookies. That will be much more exciting than 3 Gallos.

100%

[farmerguychris]

On 11/7/2023 at 11:16 PM, Ted Schwerzler said:

The biggest issue I have with cutting payroll, which should have always been expected, is to what extent. You run A business. The Pohlad's run multiple and have revenue streams from everywhere. What they direct the Twins with is largely inherited dollars, and the team is their hedge fund. Cutting drastically, off such an integral season, solely because of TV revenues would be disheartening. They don't need to spend to compete, and adding can be done through trades, but I'm nervous about what we see play out.

You're not wrong.  The only item I may have concerns with that you list is that yes, the Pohlads run multiple businesses, and yes, they have the ability to handle losses in one area that will be offset by gains in another.  I just don't think they (or most multi-business owners) run their larger corporation that way.  Each business generally runs independently of their other ones and each one is expected to make a certain amount of bottom line revenue.  Could they cover any Twins losses by the excessive profit on their other holdings - Absolutely!  Will then?  I really don't think that is something they are interested in doing - the more I listen to the new news of lower payroll coming - I really feel this is ONLY a business for them, and the fact that fans are getting excited about the team again doesn't really count for anything.  I've not be one of the 'cheap Pohlad's' crowd - but I can understand how they got that moniker.  

[nicksaviking]

I think we're looking at the wrong position here. They've never given a big multi year contract to a starting pitcher, I can't imagine they'll do that now. Odorizzi, Maeda, Paddock, Gray, Mahle, Lopez. They trade for one pretty much every single year, and out side of Gray, they tend to be on their first contracts and dirt cheap. We probably should assume that's the game plan again this year.

Going with that thought, they don't have roster room for too many offensive free agents. Larnach is probably expendable, but after that, you only have room when you start moving Farmer, Polanco and Kepler. So while there will be less budget overall, there will be more budget per free agent need than usual.

[Major League Ready]

40 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I think we're looking at the wrong position here. They've never given a big multi year contract to a starting pitcher, I can't imagine they'll do that now. Odorizzi, Maeda, Paddock, Gray, Mahle, Lopez. They trade for one pretty much every single year, and out side of Gray, they tend to be on their first contracts and dirt cheap. We probably should assume that's the game plan again this year.

Going with that thought, they don't have roster room for too many offensive free agents. Larnach is probably expendable, but after that, you only have room when you start moving Farmer, Polanco and Kepler. So while there will be less budget overall, there will be more budget per free agent need than usual.

You are sure right about contracts for pitchers but didn't we also say something similar about Correa and the contract he would command?   We have also never in my memory had this much young position talent which allows for a significant FA pitcher to be signed.  Now, if they bring what has been projected, it's not happening but I would like to think it's a possibility.  I was the guy dead set against this kind of acquisition a few years ago but I think we are positioned very differently now.

If they go trade for a SP, I don't believe it's an established ace.  It will be someone like Lopez who was seen as a mid-rotation guy.  He elevated his status this year and I think the Twins look for someone similar.

[Mike Sixel]

14 million a year, for two years.

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You are sure right about contracts for pitchers but didn't we also say something similar about Correa and the contract he would command?   We have also never in my memory had this much young position talent which allows for a significant FA pitcher to be signed.  Now, if they bring what has been projected, it's not happening but I would like to think it's a possibility.  I was the guy dead set against this kind of acquisition a few years ago but I think we are positioned very differently now.

If they go trade for a SP, I don't believe it's an established ace.  It will be someone like Lopez who was seen as a mid-rotation guy.  He elevated his status this year and I think the Twins look for someone similar.

I just don't want the rotation to be a downgrade from last year. Yamamoto would be great though unlikely. Montgomery could be close to a push. Rodriguez and Wacha seem more like the Ober/Ryan/Paddock camp than they do Gray, so I don't want them.

Despite your Correa optimism, and even if the payroll was 180M, I still think the years it would take to get Blake Snell would be a non-starter with this front office, especially since he's so inconsistent year-to-year. I also think his high BB% doesn't mesh with the makeup of the rotation and despite his talent, the club wouldn't have a ton of interest. Nola has been inconsistent, but healthy, I could see the club having more interest in him, but still, I think the years it would take to get him will be a turn off.

All that said, Montgomery or the return of Gray seem like the ONLY real options to meet what the FO wants in a pitcher, AND to keep the rotation status quo from last year. As both pitchers will have lots of suitors, it just seems unlikely, and the front office would go back to the avenue where they've had better success, that being trading for starters. Four out of six is a pretty solid rate as far as these things go. Another young and controllable pitcher, and I'd pay a lot for a good one. Getting a young stud in his early to mid 20s would be better than signing any free agent arm outside of Yamamoto, even if you give up equity to get him.