Twins Video
Rocco Baldelli’s team went through plenty of ebbs and flows last season. Although they were arguably the best team in the AL Central, wire to wire, the performance saw ups and downs. A handful of veterans provided a steadying presence, and there were more than a few youngsters who stepped up in big spots.
With the departure of eight key players, the biggest being Sonny Gray, Minnesota has some significant holes to fill. It remains to be seen what the payroll will look like in 2024, and there is some uncertainty there, given the number of questions facing the Twins from a TV revenue standpoint. But if they're willing to at least get back to the payroll level from this year, they're going have some room for a potential major signing.
If ever there was a time do it, it's now. The Twins are heading straight into a clear contention window, meaning a successful big-name signing has the potential for maximum impact.
How they handle this free agent crop remains to be seen, but these are some of the names that stand out if the front office has a green light to go big.
SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Of the names listed, this is the most unlikely. Yamamoto has been Japan’s best pitcher in the past two seasons, and he looked dominant during the World Baseball Classic. At just 25 years old, he will sign a long-term deal with someone. That hasn’t been the Twins' traditional plan for pitchers, but this could be a spot where they find value, given the mix of youth and talent. He should be expected to eclipse a $200 million deal, which is a lot to ask Minnesota after paying for Correa, but getting him for $30 million AAV or less would be a big win.
SP Jordan Montgomery
Maybe I’m underestimating what his market will be, and he certainly earned himself more dollars this postseason, but I think both Aaron Nola and Blake Snell get paid more. If that is the case, Montgomery is the kind of arm Minnesota could target. They’d need to shell out more than $100 million, and it will be a long-term deal for a guy who’s already 30, but he’s less of a risk than bringing Gray back for more than two years would be. Montgomery would also give the Twins a lefty in the rotation.
SP Eduardo Rodriguez
This is probably closer to the threshold on pitching for the Twins. Rodriguez likely will come in under $100 million, and he probably isn’t getting an opt-out clause this time. You’d need to do a significant amount of background work on health, both mentally and physically, to make sure Rodriguez is ready to go. He can be an excellent add for Minnesota, though, and already has shown an ability to pitch well in the American League Central.
SP Michael Wacha
Likely available for something closer to a two-year deal, Wacha doesn’t have close to the upside of Gray, but he could slot in nicely as a number three pitcher for Minnesota. Lucas Giolitio and Seth Lugo are likely both within this range as well. Much lower than this, from a talent perspective, put the Twins in a weird spot trying to replace Gray, but this is a good mix of dollars and talent to tread water. Getting any of these arms for around $15 million yearly would work.
Only within the context of Minnesota's history in free agency would guys like Wacha, Giolito and Lugo qualify as "big-money signings" but here we are.
It’s hard to believe that the Twins would get into a bidding war for someone like Nola, Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, or Josh Hader. Those types will have plenty of suitors, and they’ll likely command the most dollars among players at their positions. It stands to reason that Minnesota will spend. They have shown consistency in that regard, but they’ll pick their spots and be calculated with who they choose to go after.
Ultimately, I think anything over $22 million from an average annual value perspective will be a stretch. That means the top of the pitching market is something the Twins will shy away from. They could bring in an arm via trade, as they did with Pablo Lopez, and they would then have the opportunity to extend that player. Assuming something like $50 million exists in the budget for 2024, spending half or more on one player probably isn’t happening.
There are bats that should be available range this year, though, I think it’s unlikely Minnesota finds any of them worthy of a long-term deal. Finding someone for a right-handed bopping role shouldn't cost substantially, and that's where the Twins stand to benefit most. Regardless of it being in the field or on the mound, handing out a contract totaling more than $60 million over the duration seems unlikely. It may be an offseason of hired help on one-year deals.
Last season, aside from Correa, the most Minnesota spent on a single player was Vazquez's $30 million, which was broken down to three $10 million annual terms. I’d bet the high water mark for 2024 is much closer to that total than it is to $20 million or more. If there’s a way to get Gray back on a two-year deal, he’ll probably be the standard, but that would reflect good fortune for the Twins.
Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now