Who’s Heading Out In Free Agency for Twins, and Who May be Back?

Each year, there is a significant amount of roster turnover at the major league level. Thankfully the Twins saw an significant influx of youth on the 2023 team, and that should be reflected in continuity. Carlos Correa has been signed long-term, and if he can remain on the field, then Byron Buxton’s veteran presence will also be felt.

The Twins finished the season with eight unrestricted free agents heading out, and those players represent varying degrees of probability of return. Sonny Gray is really the only monumental name among the group, but more than a few of these players generated key contributions for Minnesota this last season.

In no particular order, here’s who is hitting the market for Minnesota and the likelihood that they return for 2024.

1B/OF Joey Gallo - 0%
Coming to Minnesota after unsuccessful stints in Los Angeles and New York, there was some hope that a smaller market may benefit the veteran slugger. He played a solid first base when Alex Kirilloff couldn’t go, and he factored in at multiple outfield positions for the Twins. At $11 million in 2023, he never came close to providing that value. He was hot out of the gate, then never found the same production level.

Minnesota does need a big bat and help at first base in 2024, but these two parties are best to distance from one another. Gallo did finish with a 101 OPS+, so it wasn’t as though his year was catastrophic, but he shouldn’t land a deal for much more than half of that next season.

SP Sonny Gray - 10%
It’s not as though the Twins don’t need a starter of Gray’s caliber, and they two sides have familiarity. He has said the right things about liking Minnesota and being open to returning, but money talks. Gray will be 34 years old, and this is probably the last opportunity for him to land a multi-year deal.

Minnesota will give Gray a qualifying offer, and they’d love to pay him $20.5 million for the 2024 season. They may even be open to paying that same amount for the 2025 season. Where it seems the Twins would draw the line is in spending a substantial amount on a 36-year-old in 2026, and one that has thrown more than 180 innings just once since 2015. Gray’s time with the Twins afforded him the opportunity for another big payday, and he should go and look for it.

SP Tyler Mahle - 30%
After acquiring Mahle from the Cincinnati Reds at the trade deadline in 2022, the Twins got minimal run from him before his elbow blew out in 2023. For pitchers in similar positions, like Michael Pineda and Chris Paddack, Minnesota has made deals that essentially pay for the rehab, in exchange for a chance to see the results. Something like that could work for Mahle, but neither side has indicated it being likely.

The Twins may want to wash their hands from the move that sent Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to the Reds. Also, Mahle isn’t going to factor into the Twins' plans for 2024, so bringing him back would be about how the 2025 rotation is viewed. There’s a possibility that Falvey sees this as an opportunity to get more while paying less, but there is plenty of uncertainty here.

OF Michael A. Taylor - 60%
It’s a given that Minnesota needs not only a backup plan for Buxton but, more logically, a starting option. Taylor filled that role for Baldelli wonderfully this year, but can you count on him to hit enough? His 94 OPS+ was the second-highest mark of his career, and although he posted a 90 OPS+ in 2022, it’s been considerably below that for years.

Taylor will be 33 years old in 2024, and he will command more than the $4.5 million he made this season. There aren’t many great outfield options for Minnesota, and it seems unlikely they’ll spring for someone at the level of Cody Bellinger to replace him. Taylor is maybe the most likely free agent for the Twins to retain, but expecting a repeat of 2023 seems lofty at best.

RP Emilio Pagán - 20%
After drawing the ire of Minnesota’s fanbase during a poor 2022, Pagán showed the front office was right to believe in his peripherals with a strong 2023. He changed his pitch mix a bit and worked his way back to a high-leverage role. The Twins bullpen has some open spots for the year ahead, but they could look in a different direction.

Pagán will find suitors this offseason, especially after his solid rebound. He has talked about the comfort here and the belief from the front office could lend him towards finding common ground in a deal. Relievers tend to swap teams often, though, and Pagán looking to pitch in a setup or closer role for another organization would be a logical step in 2024.

UTIL Donovan Solano - 10%
Signed as an afterthought right before the year started, Solano played an integral role for the Twins. At times, he was the only first base option, and he filled in all over the place. Despite being 35 years old, Solano rebounded from 2022 and posted a solid 110 OPS+. It wasn’t the inflated 127 OPS+ he had during 2020, but Solano has been a solid offensive contributor since 2019.

Replacing Solano isn’t a straightforward task for the Twins, but bringing him back isn’t a safe fix either. He plays similar positions to some Twins prospects who will be close to a return, and players like Brooks Lee or Jose Miranda could replicate his production. Ultimately, the Twins need to find someone for Solano's role, but it doesn’t seem like they would just run it back.

SP Kenta Maeda - 25%
Maeda gets lost in the shuffle with Gray highlighting the departing class. He could be the most cost-effective to bring back, though, and he had a successful overall season. Although injury took away from his availability, Maeda posted a 3.36 ERA in his final 88 1/3 innings, which spanned 17 games. There was the blowup game against the New York Yankees in April, but almost every other outing was relatively successful.

Maeda will be 36 years old next season, which means he could potentially be had on a one-year deal. The Twins have leaned more towards short-term deals with pitching free agents, and one like Maeda brings familiarity with what to expect. The durability concerns are real, but this is a much higher water mark that Minnesota has gravitated toward compared to previous free-agent arms.

SP Dallas Keuchel - 0%
Brought in to eat innings down the stretch, Keuchel did everything that was expected of him. The Twins didn’t think they were getting the Cy Young version, but they hoped to avoid the 2022 version as well. Keuchel proved he had something left in the tank by throwing some solid innings in St. Paul, and though plenty of the results were ERA-related, he worked his way back to the big leagues.

Minnesota saw Keuchel strike out very few batters, and his 5.97 ERA didn’t lean at all toward the 4.56 FIP that was behind it. He did contribute 37 2/3 innings after August, though, and that kept the rest of the staff fresh for what was envisioned as a deeper postseason run. There won’t be a need for a veteran spot starter to open the season, but Keuchel should undoubtedly get a look from some team if he wants it in 2024, and more offseason work could push the effectiveness up a bit further as well.

What free agents for Minnesota are you hoping to return? Is there someone you certainly don’t want to see back? Share your thoughts in the comments.