Willi Castro's Huge Steps Forward

[stringer bell]

Willi Castro was non-tendered by the Tigers after three-plus seasons. Willi was coming off two unimpressive seasons after a good, but short, rookie year (the 60-game "COVID year"). Those of us that saw Willi play this year wonder how the Tigers could let this guy go. Well, we saw an improved version of Willi Castro.

Hitting: Castro put up two mediocre seasons in 2021 and 2022, posting OPS of .624 and .651 respectively. This season Castro had an OPS of .750 (an OPS+ of 106). Willi improved in most deep stats, walking more, increasing his hard-hit rate and restoring a decent BABIP. Castro increased his OBP and slugging and was great (.905 OPS) in Late and Close games. 

Fielding: As a Tiger, Castro was an above-average fielder only in left field. Willi was again good in left, he also played a solid third base and was acceptable in center. Willi played much less in the middle infield and right field. Castro made only two errors in the entire season and none in the infield. He hadn't played much at third base, but this year played third in 41 games, with positive defensive numbers and no errors. Willi made his share of highlight reel plays and more importantly made the plays he should have made.

Base Running: This was probably the biggest area of improvement for Castro. He stole 33 bases, while getting caught only five times. He was aggressive on the bases, but didn't make outs on the bases. Willi mastered scoring on the safety squeeze and scoring on the delayed double steal. BBRef gave Castro credit for four runs gained from base running, whereas he had never recorded more than +1 run in a previous season. 

Again using BBRef numbers, Castro was +3 from batting, +4 from base running and +5 from defense. These numbers are all far above what Castro has been able to produce since a .448 BABIP fueled rookie year resulted in plus numbers from hitting. Willi Castro was markedly better in about all aspects of the game resulting in a 2.7 WAR in 124 games at age 26. Can the Twins get as good a season in 2024? 

[FlyingFinn]

37 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Can the Twins get as good a season in 2024?

Yes in all areas mentioned except for the one question mark - hitting. Was this a one year blip, a new level he will continue or will he actually continue to do better with the bat? I'm guessing it will drop a little in 2024 just because he is free swinger. The rest of his game is so good, making him a great flexible player to have on the bench, when a player is injured or needs a break, etc.

[Linus]

Willi is a rare player that can truly play multiple positions competently. Most of the time “defensive flexibility “ means the player sucks at multiple positions. Not so with Willi. I don’t think that will change and I expect him to get even better on the bases. I love that I don’t recall a total screw up on the bases which is fairly common on this team. Hitting wise time will tell. Being a switch hitter is really valuable in his role. 

[tony&rodney]

I wonder if Castro benefitted from the cliche change of scenery. There were times when Willi took wild hacks but he was pretty disciplined whenever runners were on base. The defense was really a plus and his base running too. Castro is athletic and has a host of skills, which should allow him to repeat as a solid performer. He has gained some experience and a little extra in the next contract should also be a motivator.

[stringer bell]

Willi’s hitting might be in question. Also he had pretty severe platoon splits (only a .636 OPS as a RH hitter).  Next year, he might play more in the infield depending on how the roster is constructed. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

10 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Yes in all areas mentioned except for the one question mark - hitting. Was this a one year blip, a new level he will continue or will he actually continue to do better with the bat? I'm guessing it will drop a little in 2024 just because he is free swinger. The rest of his game is so good, making him a great flexible player to have on the bench, when a player is injured or needs a break, etc.

I hope you are right, but fielding data is always very small sample size. I’m skeptical 2023 may have been a complete mirage.

Willi was a revelation in 2023, I’m hopeful and rooting for him to continue, but gotta temper expectations a bit.

[Nine of twelve]

I'm reminded of the career path of Eduardo Escobar. It's OK to dream, isn't it?

[jorgenswest]

He had a good seasons in AA and AAA at 21 and 22 and arrived in the majors at 22. He had a BABIP fueled (.448) 2020 and found the other side of BABIP in 2021 and 2021. As he arrived on the Twins, his path is similar to Celestino. Like Celestino, he was pushed to the majors young. He made mistakes at the plate, on the bases and in the field as a result of that rush. You might even recall Celestino’s BABIP fueled first two month of 2022 that gave false hope of his readiness. The Tigers ran out of patience at age 25 after 1007 at bats. I don’t think it was the change of scenery. I think it is the maturation of a player that takes time as he was rushed to the major league level.

edit: Escobar also arrived in the majors at 22 and was rushed through the minors.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I hope you are right, but fielding data is always very small sample size. I’m skeptical 2023 may have been a complete mirage.

Willi was a revelation in 2023, I’m hopeful and rooting for him to continue, but gotta temper expectations a bit.

He progressed from replacement player to solid regular according to WAR. I think some regression would be expected. 

Specifically on defense, Castro has all the tools to be a good defender—good speed, decent hands and a strong arm. He seemed to put it all together this season. I do agree that defensive stats are quirky, but if the skills are there, the results should be too (in time).

The base running was stunning in that with all of Willi’s aggressiveness, he made very few outs on the bases. Perhaps next year there will be regression there. More perfect throws and quick tags could happen and the base running numbers wouldn’t look so gaudy. 
 

 

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

I'm reminded of the career path of Eduardo Escobar. It's OK to dream, isn't it?

I don’t think Castro will ever develop the power that Escobar did. On the other hand, he can play in the middle of the diamond and in the outfield and also steal bases. 

[DocBauer]

To echo jorgenswest, he was promoted pretty quickly. And honestly, I don't think Detroit has done much to develop their young talent the past few years. So I don't know that Castro simply hasn't grown and improved as a ballplayer.

It's definitely possible 2023 was an aberration and he will regress, at least somewhat. But isn't it just as possible he continues to improve, even slightly, instead?

I really like his skill set and think his INF defense is quite good. I wouldn't be surprised to see him there more in '24. Here's hoping for a positive step forward for the kid instead of one back.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

He progressed from replacement player to solid regular according to WAR. I think some regression would be expected. 

Specifically on defense, Castro has all the tools to be a good defender—good speed, decent hands and a strong arm. He seemed to put it all together this season. I do agree that defensive stats are quirky, but if the skills are there, the results should be too (in time).

The base running was stunning in that with all of Willi’s aggressiveness, he made very few outs on the bases. Perhaps next year there will be regression there. More perfect throws and quick tags could happen and the base running numbers wouldn’t look so gaudy. 
 

 

I think we'll see a little regression, but that's fine for a utility guy, which is what Castro is. He shouldn't be a starter, and you don't want him getting 600 PAs, but he can be an important contributor like he was this season even if he regresses a little at the plate. If he can stay around average as a hitter, I think he's going to be nice player. I think the baserunning should stay viable: he's not likely to be dropping speed, if anything his instincts and feel out there might improve as he's gotten more experience attacking the bases. 

The defense impressed me: we didn't see him much at SS, but even there he looked comfortable. If he stays patient at the plate, which is definitely something the Twins preach, he's going to be the kind of guy we need.

I wonder why Detroit didn't let him run more? He showed flashes of this ability in the minors. With the changes in the rules, he's definitely a guy to green light.

[lecroy24fan]

One thing to remember as far as baserunning goes is the change in the size of the bases. 

[Nine of twelve]

4 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I don’t think Castro will ever develop the power that Escobar did. On the other hand, he can play in the middle of the diamond and in the outfield and also steal bases. 

I didn't think Escobar would ever develop the power that Escobar did. And Castro has hit a handful of long home runs.

[Karbo]

If the Twins don't get another CF like MAT, he may see a lot of action there. From what I've seen of him out there this year, it seems he could at least hold his own. With more reps he could be pretty good, and the kid can run.

[Trov]

Willi stepped up and showed he could be the type of player Falvey and Rocco love to have on the team.  They always want 1 or more super utility guy that can start all over the field and can move during the game to where ever you need them to.  It helps with bench moves in the game as you will always have a competent defender to fill in somewhere that is not a complete waste at the plate. 

[sun]

I have the utmost confidence in Castro's glove & arm in any position that he plays. His base running makes up for Buxton's injuries. Imagine if both of them can play. And best of all Castro stayed healthy only missing a little over 2 weeks in August with an oblique strain, He's a solid player that the Twins need.  He even showed great range playing SS .. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think that Willi Castro should serve as a warning to those who want to see minor league players promoted -- RIGHT NOW!  He came up with a little flash and then struggled enough that a bad team DFA'd him.  A year or two longer in AA and AAA and a year like 2023 might have been his rookie year.  If that was the case, we would be talking about what a star this guy was going to be.  I'm really glad he is a Twin.

As is, he would appear to be a really great utility player with the upside that he can hold his own at a number of positions on the field and with his bat and feet as well.  He's a better version of Marwin Gonzalez, who we signed a few years back to much fanfare.  I'm not sure I want Castro to be the starting CF'er, not because I don't think he could be OK, but because we really need him in that super utility role to which he has become so indespensible.  It's sort of the opposite of the Byron Buxton problem from this year.  Buxton occupying the DH spot didn't really help the team.  Willi Castro playing all over the field will continue to help the Twins immensely. 

[Fatbat]

Castro is massively valuable to this team. He literally opens up the roster to take a chance on a young star that would normally get stuck in the minors because we would need a 5th outfielder and a 7th infielder. He has that all covered in spades. It also allows us to move on from weak hitters in the 9th spot. 

[farmerguychris]

Big Castro fan, but worried if he's already reached his ceiling? Would Martin someday be someone who could make him expendable, just like Castro made Gordon expendable this off season?  

Good problem to have where talent keeps getting better to push players to be their best.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Money, Money, Money, Money... MONEY!!!

I am guessing he can still be had for under $1.5M.  Viable risk for Nick Punto Jr.

[Riverbrian]

Willi was a highly ranked prospect in the Cleveland system before he was traded to Detroit. 

A decent comp for Willi Castro is Jorge Polanco. 

Both were international signings at age 16. 

CBA rules force clubs to add these young IFA players to the 40 man at a very young age or lose them in the rule 5 because after 5 minor league seasons... they must be added to the 40 man roster.  

Ready or not... Polanco had to be added to the Twins roster at age 20

Castro had to be added to the Cleveland roster at age 21. 

I believe Polanco has been better in comparison but Polanco barely played out of the gate and then had some up and downs. Very little power turned to power around age 25 for Jorge. 

Who Castro is... is yet to be determined. 

The tools sure seem to be there. Give him some playing time. Let him determine his future by giving him a chance to. We may have stuck in our thumb and pulled out a plumb here. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

Big Castro fan, but worried if he's already reached his ceiling? Would Martin someday be someone who could make him expendable, just like Castro made Gordon expendable this off season?  

Good problem to have where talent keeps getting better to push players to be their best.

If he’s reached his ceiling and doesn’t regress, a league average hitting, very good baserunning, aggressive base stealing, solid utility infielder across the infield and outfield is very, very valuable.

the Twins signed Marwin Gonzalez 2 years 21m. Eduardo escobar got 2 years 20m… 

Willi Castro is still in arbitration. He gets to his league average bat differently than Marwin did and Escobar does, but still, super valuable. Especially to the Twins who are very heavy in 3 true outcomes hitters. 
 

career

2023

one season does not a trend make, but it’s a good start!