Three Remaining Items On the Twins’ Post-Clinch Checklist

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have all but wrapped up the AL Central, with their magic number dwindling by the day. Here are three items the team needs to accomplish before the playoffs begin.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are inching closer to their third division title over the last five seasons, and the team will have a chance to clinch as soon as next week. The AL Central has been historically bad in 2023, but that might not stop the Twins from ending their 18-game playoff losing streak. Minnesota has strong starting pitching, an offense that has improved in the second half, and a strong backend of the bullpen. After the team clinches, items remain on the team’s postseason checklist. 

1. Health
Player health is at the top of any team’s checklist, especially near the conclusion of a 162-game season. The Twins have health questions surrounding multiple players in the season’s final weeks. Byron Buxton was rehabbing, hoping to return to center field for the Twins. He suffered a setback, and it remains unclear if he will return. Michael A. Taylor has performed well for the Twins in place of Buxton, but he, too, is on the IL with a hamstring injury. Minnesota doesn’t want to rush him back, but they also want to ensure he can handle the rigors of regular playing time. 

On the pitching side, other players are nearing a return. Jorge Alcala and Chris Paddack moved their rehab assignments to Double-A on Tuesday. Alcala has missed most of the last two seasons with arm injuries, so his path forward this year is unclear. Paddack is returning from Tommy John surgery, and Minnesota could use him in various roles for the stretch run. He seems unlikely to be stretched out to serve as a starter, but there is an opportunity to fit into the bullpen. Brock Stewart is a little behind Alcala and Paddack but should start a rehab assignment soon. 

Other players on the roster have been fighting through injuries that will need rest in the season’s final weeks. Carlos Correa has battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season, and the Twins have tried to give him small breaks when there are opportunities. Edouard Julien has a leg injury and could benefit from a few days off his feet. There should be opportunities to rest players down the stretch so they can be closer to 100% when the playoffs begin. 

2. Experiment with Roles
Center field has been a question mark since Taylor went on the IL with the Twins using a combination of Willi Castro and Andrew Stevenson. Taylor has already hit a career-high 20 home runs and is one of the game’s best outfield defenders. Minnesota needs to experiment with different options in center field if Buxton and Taylor aren’t an option for October. Castro has provided value to the Twins with his versatility and base running this season, but there are potentially some better options if health doesn’t interfere. 

The Twins are also experimenting with different roles in the bullpen. Louie Varland has shifted from starter to reliever with mixed results since being recalled by the Twins. Kody Funderburk has been one of the organization’s best relief prospects over the last two seasons, but the team didn’t call him up until late this season. There is also the possibility of the team needing to move some of the starters to a relief role for October. Kenta Maeda has playoff experience in a late-inning bullpen role, while Dallas Keuchel likely doesn’t have a spot in the playoff rotation. Will either of these pitchers make relief appearances in the season’s final weeks?

3. Line-Up Starting Pitching
Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray have performed well recently, but neither has been a beacon of health throughout their professional careers. Lopez is nearing a career-high in innings after pitching 180 frames during the 2022 campaign. Gray has pitched over 140 innings for only the second time since 2018. Both pitchers will likely receive Cy Young votes this season, and the Twins need to find them extra days of rest before October. 

It’s more likely for Joe Ryan to be the team’s starter for Game 3 in the playoffs, but he’s also returning from a recent groin injury. Before his IL trip, he tried to pitch through the injury, and his performance suffered. He’s been significantly better in his handful of starts since returning from the IL, and the Twins hope this trend continues. Minnesota will want to ensure their top three starters are well-rested and lined up to pitch in the team’s Wild Card series. 

Would you add any other items to the team’s postseason checklist? Do you agree with the items on this checklist? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[big dog]

4. Decide whether you want to put Jax in late in a close game during the playoffs. (I know this is part of 2 but you didn't mention him and he terrifies me, at least lately.)

[mikelink45]

The BP has been a question mark all year.  What is the pecking order going into the playoffs.  It can't just be a stubborn choice to do what we have always done.  

Second we need a different PH strategy so we do not take out the best bats by platoon PHs too early. 

[danielp19653]

31 minutes ago, big dog said:

4. Decide whether you want to put Jax in late in a close game during the playoffs. (I know this is part of 2 but you didn't mention him and he terrifies me, at least lately.)

Yeah for me he's behind Duran, Thielbar, Varland, and surprisingly Pagan. If the playoffs started tomorrow he isn't touching the mound with the game tied or a lead under 3 runs 

[Brandon]

It’s not just health but for the players coming back need to get in a rhythm and we want to see them play at a high level.

Buxton had a cortisone shot and we will see how that helps him manage the pain in his knee so he can play.  If it works he will be out there if not he won’t.

Taylor will be easily ready for the playoffs.  The Twins are just going slow with him as they are being more playoff focused than regular season.  He could be ready in short order if needed.

Brock and Paddack are the ones we really want to make sure they are ready for the playoffs.  Hopefully Brock can keep pitching like before his injury and hopefully he gets into 2 or 3 regular season games before the season ends..  Same with Paddack.

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, danielp19653 said:

Yeah for me he's behind Duran, Thielbar, Varland, and surprisingly Pagan. If the playoffs started tomorrow he isn't touching the mound with the game tied or a lead under 3 runs 

Hopefully Stewart, Maeda and Paddack ahead of him as well. If they can get enough depth to push Jax and Funderburk/Keuchel to low leverage or extra innings they will be in good shape.

[stringer bell]

We've seen good and bad from almost all of the relievers--getting them sharp and relatively rested is a real key. If, for example, Jax retires about 15 batters in a row between now and October 3, Rocco and the fan base will have a lot more faith in him. Varland and Funderburk probably have to do well to secure spots on the postseason active roster.

[Nine of twelve]

If Ober is rejuvenated by the rest he’s been getting while on the AAA roster he should be the fourth starter if and when we get to that point. 

[Road trip]

Another goal:  Keep getting the kids more at bats, to the degree their health and stamina allow (Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, Wallner).  Combined, these 4 have well under 2000 MLB plate appearances... and they have all played an important role in the gradually improving Twins offense.  Every little bit of experience gained will help as they prep for pressure at bats in the post season.

[LanceJS]

Assuming MAT is healthy enough to return for the postseason, what about defense? He and Kepler are solid, but who would be in left as Wallner worries me with the glove. Infield - left side solid with Lewis and Correa and 2B is fine with either Polonco, Julien or Farmer, but the rotation at 1B - is Kirilloff set or is Solono there?  Not worried about either C either. Maybe I’m overthinking about LF and 1B but solid defense is need for postseason success as well. 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

If Ober is rejuvenated by the rest he’s been getting while on the AAA roster he should be the fourth starter if and when we get to that point. 

Rumor has it that Ober might be in the bump in Chicago tomorrow. 

[old nurse]

Over the last 2 years Jax has pitched the 6th most innings of any reliever. They need to give his arm a rest. He did not start relieving until last year. His arm might e getting a little worn 

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, LanceJS said:

Assuming MAT is healthy enough to return for the postseason, what about defense? He and Kepler are solid, but who would be in left as Wallner worries me with the glove. Infield - left side solid with Lewis and Correa and 2B is fine with either Polonco, Julien or Farmer, but the rotation at 1B - is Kirilloff set or is Solono there?  Not worried about either C either. Maybe I’m overthinking about LF and 1B but solid defense is need for postseason success as well. 

Then you would want Willi Castro in LF

[TopGunn#22]

Old Nurse is correct.  Jax needs an "invented"  IL stint just to rest & refresh.  With off days these last 2 weeks of the season and Ober coming back, somebody like Keuchel should be moved to the bullpen so Jax can get that breather.  With a pen that has been generally ineffective and inconsistent all year, Jax has been overused.  He will be key in the playoffs, especially if he is rested and the consistent bite of his breaking pitches return.  

I like what I've seen of Varland out of the pen so far.  With Maeda moving to the pen for the post season, Varland bringing 100mph heat, a rested Jax and possibly Paddock and Stewart available, the pen could actually be pretty solid in the post season.  Not needing a #5 starter, and maybe not even a #4 should allow one more bench player/pinch hitter/pinch runner rather than the usual number of pitchers needed during the regular season.  

[KBJ1]

Maeda's performance yesterday and his experience clearly put him in the #3 or 4 spot in the rotation. While Ryan has been better since his return, he still gives up too many homeruns and throws way too many pitches. He was at nearly 100 after 4 innings. Can't have him come on in relief either and give up a dinger. 

Probably need to keep Funderburk because he is a lefty. Paddock, Varland, Stewart, Kuechel, Ober vie for the bullpen slots, with Ober likely being the odd man out at the moment. Depends on health and performance. Highly doubtful Alcala makes the post season roster. If Buxton can't play in the field, he doesn't make the roster. They are too limited with him at DH. Sad but true. 

[Stew]

5. What do we do with outfielders if they are all back? Do we put Gallow on playoff roster? If buxton comes back with just a handfull of games left, will he do any better than he did? He batted .207 this year. Do we leave him off the roster? 

[Jeff K]

23 hours ago, Brandon said:

It’s not just health but for the players coming back need to get in a rhythm and we want to see them play at a high level.

Buxton had a cortisone shot and we will see how that helps him manage the pain in his knee so he can play.  If it works he will be out there if not he won’t.

Taylor will be easily ready for the playoffs.  The Twins are just going slow with him as they are being more playoff focused than regular season.  He could be ready in short order if needed.

Brock and Paddack are the ones we really want to make sure they are ready for the playoffs.  Hopefully Brock can keep pitching like before his injury and hopefully he gets into 2 or 3 regular season games before the season ends..  Same with Paddack.

I agree with your last comment about Brock and Paddack.  Those guys could add quality to our bullpen and make a difference.  I am looking forward to how Ober pitches tonight as he could move up to be the 4th playoff starter which I think the Twins will need.

[PatPfund]

Even more than the starting pitching (barring injury it should be Lopez, Gray, and Ryan with Ober or Maeda as the 4th guy when needed), the Twins need to work on the bullpen over the final games. How many are they keeping, and what are the roles? Add Paddack, Stewart, and/or Alcala? Drop Winder, Keuchel and/or Funderburk? I think Jax can be a key piece, but he has always been weak when overworked, and that's where he is now.

Byron may (or may not) be back for the post-season, but I only see it as DH/PH. The guy hasn't played in an MLB outfield for over a year, he has constant leg issues, and he isn't getting any younger. His team kept him out of the field all year, because they didn't feel he was up to it (and he didn't exactly argue with them about it). We may never see the 'old' Byron again, but for sure I don't want to parachute him into a key defensive position covered with a year-plus of rust.