Can Edouard Julien Overcome His Dire Platoon Weakness?

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins pinch-hit Christian Vázquez for Edouard Julien with the tying run on second base in the ninth inning on Wednesday. It didn't work, but the numbers tell us it was a very defensible decision.

That's a big problem.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

 

On March 4th, while I was covering spring training in Florida for Twins Daily, I traveled to Port North to watch the Twins play the Braves. It was not a terribly eventful or noteworthy game, even by March exhibition standards. As a writer covering the action, there are times where you have to really strain to figure out a meaningful or worthwhile line of questioning for the postgame session. This was one of them.

Watching the 7-5 Atlanta victory play out, one thing did catch my attention: No. 2 hitter Edouard Julien, who'd been the talk of camp with his outstanding offensive performance, went 0-for-3 at the plate, striking out twice against lefty starter Max Fried. 

As I sat in the press box, I looked up Julien's 2022 splits in the minors and was somewhat taken aback, given his resounding overall success. As effective as the 23-year-old was against right-handed pitching at Double-A, posting an utterly preposterous .332/.465/.566 slash line, he was almost equally bad against lefties, against whom he slashed .210/.373/.276 with one double, two home runs, and six RBIs in 134 plate appearances.

While it's certainly not abnormal for left-handed hitters to be much worse against same-sided pitchers, that struck me as a rather extreme platoon split – especially for such a reputedly smart and adaptable hitter as Julien. After the game, I asked Rocco Baldelli what he made of the disparity, and how he felt the prospect might evolve against southpaws.

I'll share his full response below, since it's kind of interesting to go back and read now:

"Well, very few people come into this game – even the people who do compete well, left-on-left – very few come into the game, in the minors leagues and even at the big-league level, strong in that area," Baldelli said. "I mean, I can't think of really very many people at all. So, not surprising to see a young left-handed hitter, even a talented one, struggle a little bit with that. But, guys that make good adjustments at the plate, you give chances to make good adjustments at the plate going forward. He's one of our best young talents at the plate in this organization. So I'll give him an opportunity to do that, he's still very young in his career."

Badelli continued:

"As much as anything, we always want the world for every player. If he can learn how to go out and have a good competitive at-bat against left-handers, find a way to get on base, try to find a way to help us win a game ... these are things that we need from our guys when we send them out there in these left-on-left situations. I think he probably does an okay job of that, even though he probably hasn't put up anywhere near the same kind of numbers as he has against right-handed pitching. But if he can go out there and get on base against left-handed pitching? That's great too, that's a good place to start."

Although Rocco answered the question at length, the main takeaway I gleaned from his response was, "Yeah, lefty hitters have a tough time against lefty pitchers. That's baseball. What are you gonna do." I filed it away and sort of forgot about it. 

As we've watched Julien's impressive rookie year in the majors play out though, it's becoming clear that his platoon challenges are rather glaring. The occasional walks that kept his production against left-handers afloat in Double-A have dried up against major-league pitchers who refuse to let him off the hook.

In 42 plate appearances against LHP as a Twin, Julien has slashed .214/.214/.238 with one extra-base hit (a double), 13 strikeouts, and ZERO walks. That's right, not one free pass from perhaps the most patient hitter I've ever witnessed.

In this context, it becomes easier to understand why Baldelli made the move he did late in Wednesday's game against the Rays, pulling Julien against a lefty reliever in favor of Christian Vazquez. It's true that Vazquez has been a terrible hitter this year and it's hard to imagine him offering an upgrade in any situation, but he did in this one. 

Even after Tampa manager Kevin Cash countered by bringnig in a right-hander to face Vazquez, it was still a more favorable match-up than using Julien against a southpaw, against whom the numbers tell us he would've had no chance.

The thing that stands out about Julien's numbers against lefties, other than how bad they are, is how small the sample is. Only 12% of the infielder's plate appearances have come against LHP, showing how far Baldelli and the Twins have gone out of their way to shield him. (Max Kepler, for comparison, has made 20% of his PAs against lefties.)

This isn't especially surprising, knowing the manager's penchant for playing to the platoon advantage: we're talking about a guy who kept the eventual batting champ, Luis Arraez, out of the Opening Day lineup at home in 2022 because they Twins were facing a lefty.

One can also argue Julien's usage has been key to his tremendously successful rookie campaign. His OPS sits at .834 overall despite those left-on-left struggles, illustrating the way he's been maximized as an offensive weapon.

But it's also fair to wonder if Julien will have any real path to improve this aspect of his game while receiving so few in-game chances to work on it. As Baldelli said back in spring, "Guys that make good adjustments at the plate, you give chances to make good adjustments at the plate going forward. He's one of our best young talents at the plate in this organization. So I'll give him an opportunity to do that, he's still very young in his career."

So far, Julien hasn't really gotten those opportunities. The numbers spell out why. I think there's a lot of validity to the approach Minnesota is taking with him; even if have hope that Julien will eventually grow in this regard, he is clearly overmatched right now and it's tough to try and let him fight through it for a division-winning team with an eye toward the playoffs.

On Wednesday afternoon, I heard a number of fans arguing, "Why not just let Julien hit there, he'll never learn if he doesn't get chances." And I get that. But one successful plate appearance against lefties, unlikely as it might have been, wasn't going to build enough confidence for the Twins to let the 24-year-old take any key postseason ABs in such spots. That simply cannot happen.

It's a limiting factor in Julien's otherwise impeccable offensive game. Eventually, maybe it can improve over time. But for now, Baldelli and the Twins are wise to ensure these matchups do not take place. Hopefully by the time meaningful games swing back around in October, they'll have a better option on hand than Vázquez to step in.

 

 

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[ashbury]

Julien hit lefties very capably in single-A.  Then he had a serious platoon split at AA.  But in his short stint in AAA his numbers against lefties were good again.  Now the small-sample numbers in the majors are bad, very bad - imagine walking man Julien drawing zero bases on balls in any random sample of 42 plate appearances, but that's what has happened facing left-handers since he was called up.

Left-handed AAA pitchers aren't as skilled as their major league counterparts.  But the same is true of right-handers.  So I don't see the promotion by itself as the cause of problems on one side but not the other.

Full time players are incredibly valuable.  Julien's already a bit on the bubble with his defense.  If he starts to profile as merely a platoon DH, that's not worth very much, even if it's the "strong" side of the platoon.  If it were up to me, I'd make sure the batting coaches are giving him useful tips on what to do against really good lefties seen at the major league level, and then give him a lot of opportunity even if there are growing pains.  I'd invest the plate appearances.

 

[Karbo]

The kid is just a rookie! Give him some time already. Next year let him get some at bats against some of the "weaker" lefties. IMO he's going to be a star in the near future!

[tborg]

Interesting that Wallner and Kirilloff also have very poor splits vs LHP.  I am curious whether this was also true for other strong left handed hitters during their early careers.  Does anyone have data for Kepler or other left handed bats during their first 1-2 years in the league?

[Brandon]

I think this year is give him opportunities in low level situations while he adjusts to the majors.  Next season he should be more comfortable up here so he can focu more on the lefty on lefty matchups.

[CRF]

I'd sure take my chances with Julien, before I'd use Luplow or Vazquez as a PH. The kid will never learn to hit lefty's in the bigs...unless you give him the opportunity to hit lefty's. 

[Fatbat]

That was an absolutely horrible pinch hitting decision by Rocco. We essentially have rapped up the central and have thee best teachable moment for Julien ….and he punts. WTF. 

[Trov]

The issue will be if the team writes him off as a platoon player or not.  I feel like some teams just write off lefties as not being able to hit them, and so they never give them a chance. I get late in games using the platoon stuff, but there was games where the other team used the opener and brought in a lefty in 2nd inning causing the pinch hit move before a single at bat, then there is the righty that comes in later to face the new hitter.  

Can Julien fix his issue, maybe, but unless he is given a chance we will never know. 

[tborg]

I am answering my own question, at least partially.  I looked up the OPS values vs. LHP for Kepler, Brandon Lowe, Matt Olson, and Juan Soto during their first two full years in the league.  They all showed differences between RHP and LHP (though not as much in Soto's case). None of them had an OPS lower than .600 against LHP.  Obviously, this group of 4 players is a small sample size, but it is concerning that Julien, Wallner and Kirilloff all have an OPS lower than .500 vs LHP.

[Mike Sixel]

We'll never know if they don't give him a chance. 

[Trov]

19 minutes ago, tborg said:

Interesting that Wallner and Kirilloff also have very poor splits vs LHP.  I am curious whether this was also true for other strong left handed hitters during their early careers.  Does anyone have data for Kepler or other left handed bats during their first 1-2 years in the league?

Kepler has a career split of pretty even both sides.  He generally has better batting average against lefties, but less power, not a ton though.  If you go back to say David Ortiz, his first full year with Twins, he had reverse split, then more even the next year, followed by a full platoon in his last year with Twins. That generally carried through most of the rest of his career, but he still had 817 OPS against lefties.  It is odd his crushed lefties his first full year, then regressed. 

There has been some lefties that do very well against lefties, and Julien generally seems like one that should fit that trend, because he is willing to work counts, go other way, but this year has not been good. When looking at some historical Twins every day lefties over the years, most have platoon splits, but some still could hold their own, the more so greats.  The guys that were every day players that were never all-stars or the like really struggled.  

Really that is the difference between an every day stick it out hitter, versus the full platoon guy.  The team needs to decide who they are at some point, and decide when to make moves.  Personally, if the hitter will have at least 1 more at bat, and the other team is out of lefties, I would leave them in, depending on the situation overall. 

I do not agree that a single at bat will make any difference, as clearly full adjustments need to be made, and you will not learn much from one at bat but a full effort to make changes in the off-season now will need to be done. 

[Woof Bronzer]

Seems like the Twins should give him every available at bat against lefties through the end of the regular season.  Why not?

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

We'll never know if they don't give him a chance. 

How many outs is enough?

Winning games comes before training school.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Seems like the Twins should give him every available at bat against lefties through the end of the regular season.  Why not?

Agreed

[tony&rodney]

Julien is an inexperienced baseball player, having played professionally only in 2021 and 2022 before this season. There is plenty of reason to believe that he can improve as a baseball player. 

The splits are rough for Julien this year and I agree with others that he begins to receive more opportunities next year versus lefties. It should be noted that platoon baseball is often a good decision.

While we will likely never know exactly why Baldelli used Vazquez yesterday instead of just letting Julien hit, it is at least plausible that it may have been a consequence of his previous at bat. Julien took a pitch fully in the strike zone on a run and hit leaving Farmer as an easy out at second base. It is possible Baldelli wanted to send a message when he pulled Julien; we just don't know.

[Riverbrian]

Let's go back to May 23 in the year 2023. 

Julien is in the lineup batting in the clean up spot. 

The Giants use John Brebbia as an opener. He throws a clean 3 up 3 down inning in the 1st against Kirilloff followed by Right Handers Buxton and Correa. 

Left hander Sean Manaea enters for the 2nd inning with Julien scheduled to lead off the 2nd inning when he is pinch hit for and out of the game before he swings a bat.  

The Twins were 25-23 at the time with 2.5 game lead over the Detroit Tigers. There were 114 games to play. 

If the Twins are going to do that to Julien and Kirilloff in May. They are certainly going to do that to them in September as they try to close out the AL Central and prep for the playoffs.

Julien will never develop against left handed pitchers unless they let him develop against left handed pitchers. There is no indication that they are willing to do that. 

Gallo is allowed to strikeout at .428 clip, struggle for 2.5 years, Hit .177 and keep playing. Kepler is allowed to struggle for 2.5 years and keep playing. That's all fine and dandy

However... A young lefty hitting Julien facing a left handed pitcher in the 2nd inning in Game #48 of the season. The Twins just can't stomach that and 42 AB's are used as justification for it. 

I understand the historical platoon numbers and I understand individual platoon numbers.... I see the advantage but what I don't understand is why the platoon split is seemingly THE STAT TO TRUMP ALL STATS leading to seemingly absolute strict adherence to it. 

[Nick Nelson]

22 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

While we will likely never know exactly why Baldelli used Vazquez yesterday instead of just letting Julien hit, it is at least plausible that it may have been a consequence of his previous at bat. Julien took a pitch fully in the strike zone on a run and hit leaving Farmer as an easy out at second base. It is possible Baldelli wanted to send a message when he pulled Julien; we just don't know.

Good point that I hadn't considered. Also as we all know, Julien is hobbled by his hamstring right now. If it's a coin-flip decision I think Rocco probably opts to pull him and get him off his feet.

[Woof Bronzer]

 

33 minutes ago, RpR said:

How many outs is enough?

Winning games comes before training school.

15 Twins have made more outs against lefties than Julien has.  Should we sit all of them against lefties too?  

If it turns out Julien can hold his own against lefties, that will help us win games.  Otherwise we're sitting him in favor of such illustrious, game-winning hitters as...Christian Vasquez.  

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Good point that I hadn't considered. Also as we all know, Julien is hobbled by his hamstring right now. If it's a coin-flip decision I think Rocco probably opts to pull him and get him off his feet.

Except he's done it all year, even when Julien was healthy.....

[KirbyDome89]

26 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Julien will never develop against left handed pitchers unless they let him develop against left handed pitchers. There is no indication that they are willing to do that. 

Gallo is allowed to strikeout at .428 clip, struggle for 2.5 years, Hit .177 and keep playing. Kepler is allowed to struggle for 2.5 years and keep playing. That's all fine and dandy

However... A young lefty hitting Julien facing a left handed pitcher in the 2nd inning in Game #48 of the season. The Twins just can't stomach that and 42 AB's are used as justification for it. 

Came here to say the same thing. There were plenty of "wasted," ABs on guys this team could, or should, cut bait with, but Kirilloff and Julien, players with actual everyday potential, can't stay in the lineup. It makes no sense. 

[KirbyDome89]

17 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

15 Twins have made more outs against lefties than Julien has.  Should we sit all of them against lefties too?  

If it turns out Julien can hold his own against lefties, that will help us win games.  Otherwise we're sitting him in favor of such illustrious, game-winning hitters as...Christian Vasquez.  

Yeah the argument you responded to kinda falls apart when you're claiming a guy like Luplow and starting him because you're struggling so badly against LHP.

At no point this year has the lineup been so good there just wasn't room for Julien or Kirilloff to get regular playing time against LHPs. 

[jorgenswest]

The minors is the place to develop and he had real work to do there with the glove and the bat against left handed pitching. That work was evident entering the season and I believe the Twins hoped that he could get a long run in the minors.

That changed with the Polanco injury. His bat was more than ready to hit major league right handed pitchers. Did they make the right decision to bring him up at that point or should they have let him develop further with the glove and the bat against lefties? Occasional at bats against lefties in the majors won’t move the needle at all. The travel schedule in the majors is not conducive to work outside of the games. The minors is the place to develop. In the majors you need to perform.

[USAFChief]

Maybe you missed this, Nick...or maybe you left it out on purpose:

Vazquez against RH pitching  

.215/.280/.265

And, predictably, three pitches, and a couple feeble swings later, Vazquez walks back to the dugout and TB is high fiving. 

Simply awful managing, and BTW if Rocco wasn't so easily manipulated into replacing his better hitters in the middle innings maybe he'd be left with something other than Christian Vazquez to pinch hit.

When this happens in the post season let's see if you still shill.

[Woof Bronzer]

 

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Maybe you missed this, Nick...or maybe you left it out on purpose:

Vazquez against RH pitching  

.215/.280/.265

With a 6x larger sample size than Julien's, fwiw

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The minors is the place to develop and he had real work to do there with the glove and the bat against left handed pitching. That work was evident entering the season and I believe the Twins hoped that he could get a long run in the minors.

That changed with the Polanco injury. His bat was more than ready to hit major league right handed pitchers. Did they make the right decision to bring him up at that point or should they have let him develop further with the glove and the bat against lefties? Occasional at bats against lefties in the majors won’t move the needle at all. The travel schedule in the majors is not conducive to work outside of the games. The minors is the place to develop. In the majors you need to perform.

This idea that MLB players are finished products holds no water. None.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This idea that MLB players are finished products holds no water. None.

It holds more water than the Majors are just an extension of AAA.

[Woof Bronzer]

28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Except he's done it all year, even when Julien was healthy.....

Plus I don't get the logic that he's healthy enough to start the game and hit 3 times but suddenly before his most important at bat we need to rest him.  Is that extra 3 minutes of rest really going to move the needle?  

[Battle ur tail off]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

On Wednesday afternoon, I heard a number of fans arguing, "Why not just let Julien hit there, he'll never learn if he doesn't get chances." And I get that. But one successful plate appearance against lefties, unlikely as it might have been, wasn't going to build enough confidence for the Twins to let the 24-year-old take any key postseason ABs in such spots. That simply cannot happen.

 

And this here perfectly illustrates Rocco and the Twins approach on a game by game basis. Even if he gets a hit here, my spreadsheet says he shouldn't have, so that is what we are gonna roll with. 

If they had a good option there to hit for Julien, I am all for it. However they didn't. They had one of the very worst hitters across the major leagues this season to replace him with. This is why the move is being criticized.

[RpR]

20 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

At no point this year has the lineup been so good there just wasn't room for Julien or Kirilloff to get regular playing time against LHPs. 

Julien was removed often because of his poor fielding, not just his bat against lefties.

[LA Vikes Fan]

This is all premature. Hopefully we will clinch the division with at least 7-10 games out play. Thereafter, give Julien ABs against LH pitching, also in any blowouts . Repeat this in spring training and then at the start of 2024. In other words, don't write him off against LH pitching yet but don't give him ABs against LH pitching in meaningful situations or in the playoffs. Frankly, same for Wallner and Kirilloff.