Multiple Twins Drop in Updated SDI Rankings

[Cody Christie]

The Twins focused on depth at multiple roster spots this winter, and the on-field results speak for themselves. With a month left in the season, which Twins are lining up to be Gold Glove finalists?

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) developed is the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). 

According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, SDI has been used as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are through games played on August 13th, 2023. 

Pitcher (AL Ranking): Pablo Lopez 2.3 SDI (3rd), Sonny Gray 1.3 SDI (5th), Joe Ryan -0.8 SDI (22nd)
Lopez continues to put himself in the conversation as one of the top defenders off the mound. Over the last month, his SDI total rose from 1.5 to 2.3, which ranks him behind Jose Berrios and Dean Kremer in the AL. After a tremendous month, Sonny Gray jumped from the back end of the rankings into the top five. He has a chance to jump into the Gold Glove conversation if he continues at this pace. Ryan's injury has kept him from improving his SDI total for the year. 

Catcher (AL Ranking): Christian Vazquez 1.6 SDI (5th), Ryan Jeffers -0.4 SDI (10th)
Both Twins catchers dropped significantly in their SDI total over the last month. Vazquez saw his SDI total drop from 3.2 to 1.6 but didn't drop in the overall standings. He is 0.8 points out of the top three, so he will need to recoup some of that value in the season's final month, which might be a challenge since the Twins have been giving Jeffers more playing time. Jeffers also struggled by dropping in the rankings from 8th to 10th and losing 2.0 SDI points. It seems unlikely for either catcher to finish as a Gold Glove finalist. 

First Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify
The Twins have used multiple players at first base so far in 2023, which means no one has accumulated enough innings to qualify for the SDI leaderboard. Donovan Solano (-1 OAA), Alex Kirilloff (-5 OAA), and Joey Gallo (0 OAA) have each accumulated over 290 innings at first base. New York's Anthony Rizzo and Texas' Nathaniel Lowe sit atop the AL first base rankings, and the Gold Glove race will likely come down to these two players. 

Second Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify
Edouard Julien and Jorge Polanco have split time at second base for the Twins but neither ranks particularly well defensively. Polanco posted a -9 OAA during the 2022 season, and he's been worth a -6 OAA during the current season. Julien is a poor second-base defender, but he's been worth -2 OAA in close to 100 more defensive innings than Polanco. Injuries have clearly impacted Polanco over the last two seasons, and that's one of the reasons his Twins tenure may be ending. 

Third Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify
Third base has been a position in flux for the Twins this season. Jose Miranda started the year at the hot corner and posted a -6 OAA in over 300 innings. Kyle Farmer has played the second-most innings at third, but it's been his worst defensive position in 2023. He's been worth 1 OAA at shortstop and second base while posting a -1 OAA at third. The Twins hope Royce Lewis can handle third base for the remainder of the season, but a new position has a learning curve. Like Farmer, he has been worth a -1 OAA with some strong plays more recently.  

Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa -1.9 SDI (7th) 
In July's SDI update, Correa jumped from 11th to 7th among AL shortstops and improved by 1.7 SDI. There was hope he could continue moving up the rankings down the stretch. However, it was a rough month, and he dropped by 3.6 SDI points. One has to wonder if his plantar fasciitis impacts his defensive skills, but he's been worth 2 OAA for the entire 2023 season. Wander Franco (11.8 SDI) and Anthony Volpe (9.8 SDI) have more than triple the SDI total of the third-place defender, so Correa wasn't going to be in the Gold Glove conversation. 

Left Field (AL Ranking): Willi Castro 1.8 SDI (4th), Joey Gallo 0.1 SDI (6th)
Willi Castro has made himself irreplaceable on the current Twins roster and has a chance to be a Gold Glove finalist in left field. He wasn't known as a strong defender before this season, but he's posted a positive OAA at shortstop, third base, second base, and left field. Only three qualified players, including Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Jarred Kelenic, and Andrew Benintendi, rank behind Gallo. Cleveland's Steven Kwan (10 SDI) has lapped the field and should easily walk away with the Gold Glove. 

Center Field (AL Ranking): Michael A. Taylor 6.3 SDI (3rd-Tie)
Taylor had a tremendous defensive month to move from fifth in the AL to tied for the top three. He gained 2.6 SDI points over the last month, including multiple highlight reel catches (see below). His OAA ranks in the 95th percentile, seven points higher than last season, and his arm strength ranks in the 91st percentile. His previous reputation might help him to be a Gold Glove finalist over some of the other candidates. Other top center-field defenders include Jake Meyers (7.1 SDI), Julio Rodriguez (6.6 SDI), and Kevin Kiermaier (6.3 SDI). 

Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 1.2 SDI (9th)
Kepler will fall short of being a Gold Glove finalist for the second consecutive season. He's considered a strong defender but a slow start at the beginning of the season has prevented him from ranking higher among AL right fielders. His OAA sat in the 67th percentile at the beginning of June, and he's improved to the 88th percentile. Kepler's improved offensive performance has helped to cover up some of his defensive lapses during the 2023 season. 

Do any of these defensive rankings surprise you? Which Twins will be Gold Glove finalists? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[mikelink45]

In answer to your final question - No.  The Twins use of multiple players at multiple positions does not set up for Gold Glove, but also other than Castro (big surprise), Taylor and Correa we do not have Gold Gloves.  

Polanco has never been a great defender and maybe its time to bury the Julien qualification that he is not a good fielder since he and Polanco are pretty even. 

Catcher defense is the hardest to measure so I am just pleased with what we have. 

Gallo's defensive ratings are not what was advertised but the 100% K rate last night is.  

[saviking]

So now Correa isn't an elite defender anymore, either. And we gave him how much for how long?

Let's hope it's the plantar fasciitis issue, and he is not complaining as he grinds it out. That would make me feel much better and guilty for what I wrote. 

If not, we just need to pray this is not the new normal. 

I'm sure to get bashed for this one ...

[Karbo]

No gold gloves, but solid for the most part.

[chinmusic]

Wonder if there is a  composite  team SDI ranking, year to date?

[gman]

I'm surprised that Julian is rated that much higher than Polanco. Granted neither is in the gold glove rankings, but Julian has looked better at the position than at the beginning of the year. I think it would be acceptable if he can reach 0 for his OAA rating. Maybe all the more reason to give Polanco more time at first base.

[Fat Calvin]

5 minutes ago, saviking said:

So now Correa isn't an elite defender anymore, either. And we gave him how much for how long?

Let's hope it's the plantar fasciitis issue, and he is not complaining as he grinds it out. That would make me feel much better and guilty for what I wrote. 

If not, we just need to pray this is not the new normal. 

I'm sure to get bashed for this one ...

Why would you get bashed?  The FO signed this guy for superstar money for six years, and what have we gotten so far?  You're right to complain.  And throw in Buxton for a 100 mil?  It's pathetic. 

[saviking]

9 minutes ago, Fat Calvin said:

Why would you get bashed?  The FO signed this guy for superstar money for six years, and what have we gotten so far?  You're right to complain.  And throw in Buxton for a 100 mil?  It's pathetic. 

Oh, I saved Buxton for another day😄 

[DJL44]

I am surprised Kirilloff rates that poorly at 1B

[Blyleven2011]

Correa's numbers  surprise me  , with my eye test watching him , his fielding and that arm should be consideration of a gold glove  ...

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

So now Correa isn't an elite defender anymore, either. And we gave him how much for how long?

Let's hope it's the plantar fasciitis issue, and he is not complaining as he grinds it out. That would make me feel much better and guilty for what I wrote. 

If not, we just need to pray this is not the new normal. 

I'm sure to get bashed for this one ...

Bash, bash.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Correa's numbers  surprise me  , with my eye test watching him , his fielding and that arm should be consideration of a gold glove  ...

The Twins are near the bottom of the league turning double plays. I don't think that's Correa's fault but he'll get 1/2 the blame in the advanced metrics.

[gman]

27 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins are near the bottom of the league turning double plays. I don't think that's Correa's fault but he'll get 1/2 the blame in the advanced metrics.

The Twins lead baseball in strikeouts. By their pitchers as well as hitters. Pitchers also lead baseball in strikeouts per 9 innings. Their pitchers are third to last in ground ball outs. Of course maybe that last is because their infielders are slow, but I don't necessarily think so.

I wonder how much the lack of ground ball outs affects their infielders ratings?

[FlyingFinn]

35 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Correa's numbers  surprise me  , with my eye test watching him , his fielding and that arm should be consideration of a gold glove  ...

He must be getting downgraded for lack of range?

[terrydactyls]

26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins are near the bottom of the league turning double plays. I don't think that's Correa's fault but he'll get 1/2 the blame in the advanced metrics.

If they also counted grounding into double plays in these metrics, Correa would be at the top spot by a wide margin.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, gman said:

The Twins lead baseball in strikeouts. By their pitchers as well as hitters. Pitchers also lead baseball in strikeouts per 9 innings. Their pitchers are third to last in ground ball outs. Of course maybe that last is because their infielders are slow, but I don't necessarily think so.

I wonder how much the lack of ground ball outs affects their infielders ratings?

Good point. Even if they had Ozzie Smith at SS they wouldn't score as well as some teams because they have the fewest opportunities.

[MGM4706]

Castro comments are the most surprising. Just because a guy plays a position doesn't mean he is good at it. Castro has no clue on how to play an outfield wall. He is a " Fill-in" at every position but not great at any of them. Range is average everywhere and arm is average. And the comments on double plays. That is fully on Julien and on Gardenhire in St. Paul. The kid has just not been prepared to play MLB 2nd base. Definitely a DH for the Playoffs.

[Doctor Gast]

Not surprised at the drop because the fewer opportunity of a few players & maybe the wear tear with older vets. But was surprised a little with Polanco & Kepler were as low as they were & Julien was that good. And Vazquez is better than these stats show.

[old nurse]

WillieCastro irreplaceable? Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Wallner, Julian,Prato and Miranda. If they retain Polanco and/or  Kepler I think Castro is replaced. That doesn’t include the possibility of Gordon

[LonelyseatinMOA]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Correa's numbers  surprise me  , with my eye test watching him , his fielding and that arm should be consideration of a gold glove  ...

single season defensive metrics are hilariously unreliable and "gold glove considerations" should mean next to nothing to us in our evaluations of player defense 

[joefish]

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

In answer to your final question - No.  The Twins use of multiple players at multiple positions does not set up for Gold Glove, but also other than Castro (big surprise), Taylor and Correa we do not have Gold Gloves.  

Polanco has never been a great defender and maybe its time to bury the Julien qualification that he is not a good fielder since he and Polanco are pretty even. 

Catcher defense is the hardest to measure so I am just pleased with what we have. 

Gallo's defensive ratings are not what was advertised but the 100% K rate last night is.  

Being versatile has its drawbacks. If awards matter. 

[Aerodeliria]

Thank you!

I never want to underestimate defensive metrics. In the first two months of the season, errors or blunders in the field cost the Twins seven games. I haven't tracked errors lately, but I doubt we've improved much.

Some players make glaring errors at key moments in the game (Polanco, Miranda, Kepler (not recently, fortunately), and in playoff games, bad habits, developed over time, tend to rear their ugly heads.

Of all of my beefs with how the team is managed, this is the biggest for me. Some players may not need reps (Correa, Taylor), but IMHO, they are still vitally important. Good defensive habits are developed through repetition, which is reflected in routine under stressful situations and trust in other players.

[gil4]

12 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins are near the bottom of the league turning double plays. I don't think that's Correa's fault but he'll get 1/2 the blame in the advanced metrics.

Sure, it's Correa's fault. The other teams have had the advantage of facing Carlos "6-4-3" Correa, 😎

[gil4]

9 hours ago, joefish said:

Being versatile has its drawbacks. If awards matter. 

There is really only one that matters.  

[joefish]

1 hour ago, gil4 said:

There is really only one that matters.  

Indeed!

But...GG? SS?MVP? CY?

[SotaSports in NM]

On 8/21/2023 at 7:31 AM, Fat Calvin said:

Why would you get bashed?  The FO signed this guy for superstar money for six years, and what have we gotten so far?  You're right to complain.  And throw in Buxton for a 100 mil?  It's pathetic. 

For a mid market team you ABSOLUTELY make both deals 100% of the time. It's only "pathetic" because of underperformance (I.e - hindsight). At the time that the contracts were offered there were very few critics, especially in Buxton's case. Twins fans need to stop pretending like they foresaw these guys falling off a cliff this year. Star players that want to play in Minneapolis don't grow on trees.