One move the Twins should (but won't) make in the Offseason

[Cap'n Piranha]

Spoiler Alert; to paraphrase Taylor Swift, the Twins and Shohei Ohtani are never ever ever getting back together.

Yes, you read that correctly--I'm going to propose the unthinkable of unthinkables.  The Twins should do whatever it takes to sign Shohei Ohtani this offseason.  Here's why.

1. The Twins lineup would go from promising to punishing in one move.  Despite all the angst around the offense, metrics suggest it's not actually all that bad (just thoroughly mediocre).  By WAR, the Twins hitters rank 13th; they're 12th by wRC+, 15th by wOBA, 16th by OPS, and 17th by runs.  However, since June 1 (allowing for the inclusion of younger players like Julien, Wallner, Kiriloff, and Lewis) those ranks are 9th, 12th, 13th, and 20th.  Adding the player with the best wRC+ in baseball, along with that young core, potential better health for Correa and Buxton, and even more young talent from the high minors (Lee, Martin, Keirsey, et al) would give the Twins a top 5 offense (on paper)
2. The Twins rotation would go from uncertain to unquestionable in one move.  While the rotation has been the main strength of the team for most of the year, 2 of the 3 most likely playoff starters (Gray and Maeda) are set to leave in free agency.  That leaves the rotation with depth questions--can you count on Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland, and SWR to be healthy enough to not really need a quality 7th starter--as well as top end talent questions as well.  Adding Ohtani, who admittedly has regressed from last year, would give the Twins 7 quality options in the rotation, as well as a very respectable 1-2 punch between Lopez and Ohtani
3. The Twins gameday revenue would go from middling to massive in one move.  When the Phillies signed Bryce Harper before the 2019 season, they sold 100k tickets in the first 24 hours (this was on top of an incremental 200k more tickets sold thanks to trading for Realmuto, among others (source).  Ohtani is on an entirely different level, and would surely eclipse those numbers with ease.  The Twins are currently averaging just over 24k fans a game (up from just over 22k last year, but quite a bit down from 2019's 28k a game [source]); it's not unreasonable to think the presence of Ohtani could drive attendance over 30k a game.  An incremental 6k fans every game, multiplied by 81 games, multiplied by $50 (estimated spend per fan) yields over $24M in new revenue.
4. The Twins off-field revenue would go from lacking to lucratve in one move.  Employing the most popular baseball player in the game would be hugely profitable off the field; new markets (specifically Japan) would be opened up.  Merch sales would be truly nationwide for the first time in a decade or more.  Even in Minnesota, the amount of Ohtani merch the Twins could move would be astronomical.  The dramatic surge in local popularity this move would drive would be very helpful to the team as they look to negotiate a new TV deal, and look for other sponsors as well.
5. The Twins playoff odds over the next few years go from good to great in one move.  The AL Central looks to be a wasteland for the next few years--only Detroit and Cleveland have top half farm systems (source), and even then it's just barely at 13th and 15th.  The White Sox are 20th and the Royals somehow have the 29th system in baseball.  In short, you have 4 flawed at best, downright bad at worst teams without a clear path to marked improvement in the short term.  The Twins would be clear favorites in the AL Central, and would all but guarantee multiple home playoff games every year, which are massively profitable.  35k fans spending, let's say $75 each, is $2.6M a game.  Play in 4-6 home games, and that's another $10M-$15M in revenue.

The question now is--how do the Twins get this done?  To start, you can make this move now, thanks to the large amounts of payroll coming off the books after this season.  Between Gray, Gallo, Mahle, MAT, Floro, Pagan, Maeda, and Solano the Twins clear almost $48.5M off the books (and that includes only Maeda's base pay, not any incentives).  Find a trade partner for Kepler and Polanco (rendered expendable by the presence of Wallner/Larnach/Martin/Lewis and Julien/Martin/Lewis/Lee respectively), and that number surges to $64.4M.  Decline arbitration for Farmer, and now the number is north of $70M (source).  This allows the Twins to choose between a couple of different options;

1. Go toe-to-toe with the big boys, and offer Ohtani an 8 year, $500M contract.  Ohtani sets every conceivable contract record, and the Twins still don't enter into the luxury tax.  For a team like the Dodger to match that, the effect is more like that of an 8 year, $650M contract, or they could do a 15 year, $750M contract to minimize luxury tax spend.  Either way, that might be hard to swallow for any team (maybe not the Mets--but if Ohtani wants to win, why would he go to the Mets).
2. Get really creative, and go all-in for the next 3 years with a 3 year, $300M contract.  Ohtani would get to re-enter free agency at the age of 32 (he turns 30 in early July of 2024), setting himself up for a second massive contract.  The Twins sidestep any potential aging pitfalls in years 4 and after, while minimizing the Pohald's cash outlays (and freeing up payroll space for 2027 when the collection of exciting young players starts to get expensive).

All in all, I'm entirely convinced it won't happen, but if you squint just hard enough, there's enough crazy-like-a-fox logic to give me hope.

[Bodie]

We can dream...

[CRF]

Yep...you're 100% right. There's no effing way that's gonna happen.

[weneedneshek]

A fun exercise regardless of the odds, nice write-up

[Oldgoat_MN]

Very creative. A fun read. Thanks for the ride.

[JD-TWINS]

$24M from additional tickets is pretty reasonable. I’d add another $8M, net, on concessions. Payroll saved from ‘23 could be in the $40M range pretty easily…….as we’ll need to keep some veterans around the youth movement. Maeda seems to be an obvious re-sign. I’m thinking another $5/ticket on the existing 1.8 million fans drawn in ‘23 - estimation of total……$9M to the total.

24 + 8 + 40 + 9 = $81M/year ….,,Ohtani is responsible for $41M according to the logic above…….we throw in another $14M and he gets $55M/year for 6 years - maybe 7? Our total payroll only increases approximately $15M/year.

Seems affordable. NOT MOVING TO MINNEAPOLIS though!

. ………………….

Julien - Lewis - Wallner - Ohtani - Kirilloff - CC - Kepler - Jeffers - Buxton

(Wallner would see lots of good pitches)

Vazquez - Castro - Solano - Farmer

…………………….

Lee up at the deadline

Buxton has to play OF or we need to trade & eat 50% of his contract……no real choice.

[Ruven]

With Jeffers‘ emergence and Camargo ready, or near major league ready, would there be a taker for Vazquez and his $10m per for two years to free up more dollars?

[Dave Borton]

I will buy the sushi to make this happen.

 

(I think I am safe speaking out of me arse).

 

[terrydactyls]

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

$24M from additional tickets is pretty reasonable. I’d add another $8M, net, on concessions. Payroll saved from ‘23 could be in the $40M range pretty easily…….as we’ll need to keep some veterans around the youth movement. Maeda seems to be an obvious re-sign. I’m thinking another $5/ticket on the existing 1.8 million fans drawn in ‘23 - estimation of total……$9M to the total.

24 + 8 + 40 + 9 = $81M/year ….,,Ohtani is responsible for $41M according to the logic above…….we throw in another $14M and he gets $55M/year for 6 years - maybe 7? Our total payroll only increases approximately $15M/year.

Seems affordable. NOT MOVING TO MINNEAPOLIS though!

. ………………….

Julien - Lewis - Wallner - Ohtani - Kirilloff - CC - Kepler - Jeffers - Buxton

(Wallner would see lots of good pitches)

Vazquez - Castro - Solano - Farmer

…………………….

Lee up at the deadline

Buxton has to play OF or we need to trade & eat 50% of his contract……no real choice.

I believe Buxton has a no trade clause.  Therefore, you have two DH which won't work.  Otherwise, I advocated for that last spring.

[tony&rodney]

Fun to think about. Ohtani will get $500+ million this offseason. My guess is either Seattle, San Francisco, or the Dodgers, with my choice (guess) being the Mariners.

Sure would be excellent to see Ohtani in a Twins uniform though.

[MABB1959]

We have never even been able to dream with this team.  Buxton and Correa together should have been a dream come true but has turned into a nightmare.   

[Major League Ready]

17 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

$24M from additional tickets is pretty reasonable. I’d add another $8M, net, on concessions. Payroll saved from ‘23 could be in the $40M range pretty easily…….as we’ll need to keep some veterans around the youth movement. Maeda seems to be an obvious re-sign. I’m thinking another $5/ticket on the existing 1.8 million fans drawn in ‘23 - estimation of total……$9M to the total.

24 + 8 + 40 + 9 = $81M/year ….,,Ohtani is responsible for $41M according to the logic above…….we throw in another $14M and he gets $55M/year for 6 years - maybe 7? Our total payroll only increases approximately $15M/year.

Seems affordable. NOT MOVING TO MINNEAPOLIS though!

. ………………….

Julien - Lewis - Wallner - Ohtani - Kirilloff - CC - Kepler - Jeffers - Buxton

(Wallner would see lots of good pitches)

Vazquez - Castro - Solano - Farmer

…………………….

Lee up at the deadline

Buxton has to play OF or we need to trade & eat 50% of his contract……no real choice.

Here is where the revenue increase logic fails.  Whatever the amount of revenue increase, there are several markets where Ohtani would increase the revenue much more than he would here.  

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Here is where the revenue increase logic fails.  Whatever the amount of revenue increase, there are several markets where Ohtani would increase the revenue much more than he would here.  

Agreed - just taking a “practical” look from Twins standpoint. They could afford to take a big swing…………probably a different FA & we could win more games with, more than ‘23, and it would kick up attendance as winning usually does. Get a $22M - $26M guy into the line-up & drop him in the middle of our anticipated order.

OR we just wait for Lee & figure out how to mesh him & Julien & Lewis into the every day line-up.

[twinfan]

Your argument doesn't work for 2 reasons. On the one hand, Ohtani and Trout have played together for several years and the Angels, though they are in a tougher division right now, have never made the playoffs. On the other hand (she wore a glove), spending that much money wipes out our team's payroll and they would not be able to afford anyone else. True that Ohtani is the best baseball player on both sides of the ball but he is only one player (ok, 2 players) and how much longer can he do what he does- especially in pitching. Only time will tell. He may stay with the Angels who at least made an attempt this year or go to LA or SF (IMHO). But, like everyone has said, it's nice to dream. 

I still say we should trade Buxton in the off-season if we can get 2 quality and healthy players for him (hey, that IS an Ohtani).

[Cris E]

11 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

We have never even been able to dream with this team.  Buxton and Correa together should have been a dream come true but has turned into a nightmare.   

This has clearly NOT been a nightmare. A nightmare was last year with 14 guys starting games and 2300 DL days. A nightmare is what the Cardinals are going through. A nightmare is the Mets spending twice our payroll just on their luxury tax and having to sell off all the new toys because it utterly didn't work. Mike Trout is missing most of the season, Aaron Judge missed most of the season, almost all the 2023 free agent starting pitchers have been injured or terrible and it's different here because we're still sitting in first in front of a lot of bad teams, which is way more the the Angels or Yankees or Padres or Cards can say. 

Geez, have a little perspective, eh?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Ohtani isn't worth it, unless you just want to make him a hitter only or a pitcher only, which he won't do.   The issue is the tax on the pitching staff with a 6 day pitching staff it is much more difficult to build a pitching staff that has enough quality to avoid taxing the bullpen.  With spending bucco money on 1 player,  you will have less resources to spend on other quality pitchers.  This will result often in 3-4 below average pitchers likely at the end of the rotation,  killing your bullpen.   Our starters have held up their end of the bargin this year.  I can recognize Ohtani's greatness, but he currently causes more issues roster management wise than he is worth - which is odd as you get a hitter and pitcher in 1 player.  

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Ohtani isn't worth it, unless you just want to make him a hitter only or a pitcher only, which he won't do.   The issue is the tax on the pitching staff with a 6 day pitching staff it is much more difficult to build a pitching staff that has enough quality to avoid taxing the bullpen.  With spending bucco money on 1 player,  you will have less resources to spend on other quality pitchers.  This will result often in 3-4 below average pitchers likely at the end of the rotation,  killing your bullpen.   Our starters have held up their end of the bargin this year.  I can recognize Ohtani's greatness, but he currently causes more issues roster management wise than he is worth - which is odd as you get a hitter and pitcher in 1 player.  

Ohtani doesn't count as a pitcher so you're still able to carry 13 other arms. So, as far as the numbers go, you aren't carrying any fewer arms even with a 6 man starting staff. As for the money, the Twins already have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack locked up. So we're already at 5 of 6 spots (including Ohtani). Varland or bringing back Maeda or Gray on a short deal is easily affordable. 

The challenge is the same as always...can you produce prospects to give yourself cheap talent? If you're willing to trust the offense to all your young guys, Ohtani, Buxton, and Correa you can absolutely afford Ohtani. The 2-way player rules make it so that roster management really isn't much of a problem at all as long as you can produce prospects that can contribute at the major league level.

[MABB1959]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

This has clearly NOT been a nightmare. A nightmare was last year with 14 guys starting games and 2300 DL days. A nightmare is what the Cardinals are going through. A nightmare is the Mets spending twice our payroll just on their luxury tax and having to sell off all the new toys because it utterly didn't work. Mike Trout is missing most of the season, Aaron Judge missed most of the season, almost all the 2023 free agent starting pitchers have been injured or terrible and it's different here because we're still sitting in first in front of a lot of bad teams, which is way more the the Angels or Yankees or Padres or Cards can say. 

Geez, have a little perspective, eh?

So no big deal for our 2 best players having this type of year?  I am going to guess both Carlos and Buxton are not happy and wish they could wake up from this season. 

[Cris E]

If they're both still swinging a bat in October then it's not a nightmare. Ask Bryce Harper.

[KBJ1]

First, ANY team that signs Ohtani would see a Hugh marketing boost, that's a given.

Cutting bait with the likes of Polanco, Kepler, Vasquez, Farmer, Gallo etc can and should be done. But be careful what you wish for, because in a couple years they will need to lock in all their replacements and I doubt they will be as cheap as Kepler & Polancos contracts are now.

But actually a 4yr 300M deal would make sense for both the Twins & Ohtani as the "window of opportunity " to win a WS would be visible to both and Ohtani, as you said, could collect another solid contract after.

The Twins actually are a dark horse team in this race.

[TNtwins85]

If you sign a 29 year old Ohtani to a 500M+ contract it won’t take long before you turn into the Angels. We made our big splash( Buxton, Correa). Our young Hitters are coming through that we’ve been waiting for(Wallner, Julien, Lewis, Kiriloff). We have a solid pitching staff for a couple years in the stable( López, Ober, Ryan, Varland). A couple studs down on the farm( Lee, Jenkins). Now we just need to make moves around the edges to supplant guys until a prospect comes up. The plan came to fruition. It only took 12 years but it’s here. Save money to sign your in house pre-arb guys to extensions. Sign a guy when there’s a hole.  Ride this train for awhile. It’s here. Don’t blow it up with one guy now. 

[MABB1959]

3 hours ago, Cris E said:

If they're both still swinging a bat in October then it's not a nightmare. Ask Bryce Harper.

Well swinging is one thing and hitting has not been there.  Buxton seems to be hurting just by swinging.  IL this time for legging out a double?

[rv78]

Some day, some year. those that dream will realize Buxton is a bust. Championship teams are not built around part-time players and that is only the fault of the current FO. Then over spending on Correa and Gallo was another mistake. Gallo will be a short lived nightmare. Correa will be much more detrimental due to the length of his contract. Keep in mind who is leading this team's lineup. It is not the veterans that this FO has signed but the young players brought up from the minors. I'll give kudos to the FO for the likes of Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Miranda(last year), and the other prospects coming or contributing already. It is not time to spend foolishly on 1 player even if it is an Ohtani. The time is here now to start investing in the young talent that is already here and also plan to spend enough to keep those prospects not too far away. 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Some day, some year. those that dream will realize Buxton is a bust. Championship teams are not built around part-time players and that is only the fault of the current FO. Then over spending on Correa and Gallo was another mistake. Gallo will be a short lived nightmare. Correa will be much more detrimental due to the length of his contract. Keep in mind who is leading this team's lineup. It is not the veterans that this FO has signed but the young players brought up from the minors. I'll give kudos to the FO for the likes of Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Miranda(last year), and the other prospects coming or contributing already. It is not time to spend foolishly on 1 player even if it is an Ohtani. The time is here now to start investing in the young talent that is already here and also plan to spend enough to keep those prospects not too far away. 

You are acting like the Buxton contract is some 400M/15yr boondoggle. He's getting paid ~15M/yr. That's the same money as is being given to Tyler Mahle, Kyle Farmer, and Chris Paddack in '23. In no way is 15M/yr crippling, nor does it prevent the Twins from being championship contenders. For that logic to run true, again, the Twins should be just as harmed by Mahle and Paddack not producing anything in the rotation, yet they have a top-5 staff in baseball.

[MABB1959]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

Some day, some year. those that dream will realize Buxton is a bust. Championship teams are not built around part-time players and that is only the fault of the current FO. Then over spending on Correa and Gallo was another mistake. Gallo will be a short lived nightmare. Correa will be much more detrimental due to the length of his contract. Keep in mind who is leading this team's lineup. It is not the veterans that this FO has signed but the young players brought up from the minors. I'll give kudos to the FO for the likes of Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Miranda(last year), and the other prospects coming or contributing already. It is not time to spend foolishly on 1 player even if it is an Ohtani. The time is here now to start investing in the young talent that is already here and also plan to spend enough to keep those prospects not too far away. 

Hopefully they will learn something here.  Stop the dumpster diving or old veterans hoping for one more try. 

[MABB1959]

19 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

You are acting like the Buxton contract is some 400M/15yr boondoggle. He's getting paid ~15M/yr. That's the same money as is being given to Tyler Mahle, Kyle Farmer, and Chris Paddack in '23. In no way is 15M/yr crippling, nor does it prevent the Twins from being championship contenders. For that logic to run true, again, the Twins should be just as harmed by Mahle and Paddack not producing anything in the rotation, yet they have a top-5 staff in baseball.

How can they have a top-5 staff and barely playing .500 in the worst division ever. Horrible pathetic ALC!

[MABB1959]

26 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

You are acting like the Buxton contract is some 400M/15yr boondoggle. He's getting paid ~15M/yr. That's the same money as is being given to Tyler Mahle, Kyle Farmer, and Chris Paddack in '23. In no way is 15M/yr crippling, nor does it prevent the Twins from being championship contenders. For that logic to run true, again, the Twins should be just as harmed by Mahle and Paddack not producing anything in the rotation, yet they have a top-5 staff in baseball.

I think a big part of the frustration is lack of information for us.  Started with him easing into the year at DH which was disappointing.  Let’s be honest, he has to be one of the worst DH players ever.  It is one thing that he can’t play CF but to pull a hamstring trying get a double sucks.  They have most likely known all along that he is done 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

10 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

How can they have a top-5 staff and barely playing .500 in the worst division ever. Horrible pathetic ALC!

Pablo Lopez had an ERA of 3.66 and just turned in another scoreless outing. Sonny Gray's ERA is 3.04, and both him and Lopez will likely finish top-10 in AL Cy Young. Kenta Maeda has been fantastic since the break, and Bailey Ober has an ERA of 3.40. Joe Ryan was phenomenal up until the end of June and was a top-15 pitcher in baseball before he got hurt (and then played through injury). Jhoan Duran and Emilio Pagan both have ERAs below 3.08, and Jax/Thielbar round out a good leverage corps. This is probably the best pitching staff the Twins have had in 50 years.

I don't understand what Cleveland/KC/Chicago/Detroit being terrible has to do with the fact that the Twins will likely have two top-10 AL Cy Young vote-getters, a closer that throws 105mph, and a leverage corps where every arm currently owns an ERA below 3.70 (All of whom have a positive WPA besides JAX, who owns a -0.1 WPA). 

The Twins are not responsible for the failures of the AL Central and would still be in the thick of the WC race if they were not in the Central (Especially in the NL). Even the most negative Twins fans have generally acknowledged the strength of the rotations, and I don't really understand your argument or why you feel that the Twins playing in a bad division means that the rotation is not as good as advertised. 

[rv78]

10 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

You are acting like the Buxton contract is some 400M/15yr boondoggle. He's getting paid ~15M/yr. That's the same money as is being given to Tyler Mahle, Kyle Farmer, and Chris Paddack in '23. In no way is 15M/yr crippling, nor does it prevent the Twins from being championship contenders. For that logic to run true, again, the Twins should be just as harmed by Mahle and Paddack not producing anything in the rotation, yet they have a top-5 staff in baseball.

So you are suggesting that the $15M couldn't be spent better elsewhere? Right now I would gladly take Farmer over Buck, who by the way has only 3 less hits in 75 less plate appearances than Buck. For what it's worth, I would add Mahle and Paddack to the worthless catagory that this FO wasted money on. Farmer not so much as he is providing value and is only a 1 year committment. Buxton is a broken record and even trying to keep him healthy by giving him the least demanding position on the team, DH, can't accomplish that. If you think the money that is wasted by this FO isn't crippling then you must be happy with a team that can only be competitive in the weakest division in baseball. That can barely stay above .500. Maybe if they spent their money more wisely they could actually play with the big boys.

[JD-TWINS]

On 8/18/2023 at 10:45 AM, twinfan said:

Your argument doesn't work for 2 reasons. On the one hand, Ohtani and Trout have played together for several years and the Angels, though they are in a tougher division right now, have never made the playoffs. On the other hand (she wore a glove), spending that much money wipes out our team's payroll and they would not be able to afford anyone else. True that Ohtani is the best baseball player on both sides of the ball but he is only one player (ok, 2 players) and how much longer can he do what he does- especially in pitching. Only time will tell. He may stay with the Angels who at least made an attempt this year or go to LA or SF (IMHO). But, like everyone has said, it's nice to dream. 

I still say we should trade Buxton in the off-season if we can get 2 quality and healthy players for him (hey, that IS an Ohtani).

In what reality does anyone want Byron Buxton on their club? That said, trying to get 2 quality players for Buxton is an exercise in futility…….similar to getting Ohtani to Lake Calhoun.

Mahle - Maeda - Gray - Gallo - Taylor - Solano - Polanco …….assuming we keep Farmer & Kepler, allows for a recoup of $60-$65M from current payroll.

New revenues of around $40M between ticket sales & concession net revenue. I honestly think we could offer $55M/year without it being at all restrictive on budget…..7 years to get him to at least consider.