Breaking Down the Remaining Twins Schedule

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins have 42 games remaining and, according to Fangraphs, a 90% chance of reaching the playoffs.

What would it take for that dreaded 10% failure scenario to come to fruition? Let's break down the final seven weeks of the schedule to get a clear lay of the land.

Here's the short version of what we're about to cover: The Twins are in a really good position. A vast majority of their remaining games are either at home, or against bad teams, or both. Here's an overview of how the final quarter of their schedule breaks down in terms of home/road split and opponent quality.

Home vs. Road

• Home games: 24
• Road games: 18

Say what you will about this year's Twins, or last year's, but when playing at Target Field both have been bona fide playoff-caliber teams. The Twins are 33-24 (.579) at home this year, after going 46-35 (.568) there last year. 

When the Twins last did make the playoffs, in the shortened 2020 season, they went 24-7 at home (.774). They had a .568 winning percentage at Target Field in 2019, and .605 in 2018. 

If the Twins match this year's benchmark by playing .579 ball in their remaining 24 home games, they'd go 14-10, meaning they could go 5-13 in their 18 road games and still finish .500. They could go 8-10 on the road and finish 84-78, which frankly should be plenty to win this division.

Opponent Breakdown

• Above .500: 15
• Below .500: 27

Two-thirds of the Twins' remaining games come against teams that are currently below .500. Many of them are well below .500. This is why, according to the website Tankathon, the Twins have the fourth-easiest strength of schedule for any MLB team. Meanwhile, Cleveland has the seventh-hardest. 

When you actually shake out the remaining 42 games by opponent, however, you find a somewhat more sobering picture that basically narrows down to 13 critical games. 

• Rangers: 7 games
• Guardians: 6 games
• White Sox: 4 games
• Pirates: 3 games
• Rockies: 3 games
• Reds: 3 games
• Mets: 3 games
• Rays: 3 games
• Angels: 3 games
• Athletics: 3 games
• Brewers: 2 games
• Tigers: 2 games

The Twins have yet to play the Texas Rangers, who've been leading the AL West almost all year and are 22 games above .500 with a +181 run differential. This is a very good team that only got better at the trade deadline. 

The last time the Twins played a team of this caliber – the Braves, back in late June – they got their asses handed to them and it led to a closed-door meeting. So these upcoming showdowns with the Rangers – who are arguably the current World Series favorite from the AL – will be watched closely. We can fairly treat these match-ups as a litmus test for October. The first meeting is a four-game series at Target Field the weekend after next. Minnesota travels to Texas the following weekend.

Both of those series are followed directly by three-game sets against the Guardians. This 14-day stretch really feels like the defining juncture in the remaining schedule:

• Aug 24-27: 4 games vs. Rangers at Target Field
• Aug 28-30: 3 games vs. Guardians at Target Field
• Aug 31: Day off
• Sept 1-3: 3 games vs. Rangers at Globe Life Field
• Sept 4-6: 3 games vs. Guardians at Progressive Field

This stands out as Cleveland's biggest chance to make a run and turn the tides on their shrinking postseason chances. If they can make hay in their head-to-head matchups against the Twins, winning say five of six, while Minnesota falls flat in seven games against the mighty Rangers, it's plausible the Guardians could make up ground fast in that two-week stretch. At the very least, they can stay close enough to keep it a race in the final three weeks. 

But it bears emphasizing how tough the road ahead is for Cleveland. While the Twins are grappling with the Rangers in that time range, the Guardians will have to deal with the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Rays. They've also still got series ahead against Texas, Baltimore, and San Francisco. A whopping 29 of Cleveland's remaining 43 games (67%) are against teams with records above .500 currently. They also have a smaller share of remaining home games (51%) compared to Minnesota (57%). 

The Guardians are already in a huge hole, trailing Minnesota by 4 ½ games in the division, and as we've established, they have their work cut out for them. If the Twins merely play .500 ball the rest of the way – which truly feels like a given at the bare minimum, given their schedule – Cleveland would need to go 25-18 (.581) the rest of the way to match them in the standings at 83-79.

I'm not going to say that can't happen. Anything can happen. But to say the Twins have a favorable path forward in the AL Central would be an understatement.

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[theBOMisthebomb]

The Minnesota sports fan defensive reaction has my gut telling me the Guardians will overtake the Twins and win the division. The heck with logic, I need to protect myself. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Cart. Horse. Something of that nature :)

 

[dberthia]

When you tank against teams like Detroit and KC and take a series with Philly, I'm inclined to say strength of schedule down the home stretch is meaningless.

[Dman]

With this team I wouldn't think that even an easier schedule is an advantage as they have been horrid against bad teams at times.  Got swept in KC can't seem to win a series against the Tigers.  They barely snuck by the A's with two one run games and the A's are the worst team in baseball right now.

With tired arms and a lineup that runs hot and cold on any given night and a pen full of question marks I just don't see this as an easy road unless things change for the better consistency wise for this team.

Also the Guardians young arms have been keeping them in games, Their team ERA is slightly better than the Twins and their bullpen is better than Minnesota's.  The only thing holding the Guardians back is their offense has once again gone missing.  If they find any kind of resurgence in that area then they could pass the Twins for the division title despite the tougher schedule.

Sure if the Twins do what they should they have the division locked up.  I just don't trust them at all given how the season has played out so far.

[Riverbrian]

The Worst Teams in baseball win 4 out of 10 games. 

The Best teams in baseball win 6 out of 10 games. 

Average teams win 5 out of 10. The margins are thin and the margins have been thin since the beginning of time. 

None of the worst teams in baseball consistently win 4 every single stretch of 10 games. They are up and down like a rollercoaster.

If you catch one of the worst teams while they are winning 8 out of 10 games... Are they one of the worst teams in baseball when you play them?  

None of the best teams consistently win 6 every 10 games... If you catch one of the best teams in baseball when they are only winning 2 out of 10 games... Are they one of the best teams in baseball when you play them? 

It's a fun exercise to look at the remaining schedule and declare an easy or hard road ahead based on current records but the exercise is pointless because nobody knows what is going to happen from game to game and week to week. 

You got to strap it on every day and grind and never ever ever take any team for granted.   

[T.O.]

Twins are more likely to win 2 of 4 with Texas and lose 4 of 5 with Detroit and Cleveland.

[MABB1959]

Series against Cleveland is the biggest of all!

[Patzky]

By the time the Lions are in first place, we will know.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

The Minnesota sports fan defensive reaction has my gut telling me the Guardians will overtake the Twins and win the division. The heck with logic, I need to protect myself. 

Prudent thinking.

[LastOnePicked]

The plus: This team can reliably be counted on to play .500 baseball over any long stretch, regardless of the competition.

The minus: This team cannot be counted on to play over .500 baseball over any long stretch, regardless of the competition.

So ... if Cleveland can do what they haven't been able to do all season - go on a tear - they have a very solid shot at the division. 

Stuff all that. Let's just go win this thing outright.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Where do I order my playoff tickets?

[walkstar89]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

With this team I wouldn't think that even an easier schedule is an advantage as they have been horrid against bad teams at times.  Got swept in KC can't seem to win a series against the Tigers.  They barely snuck by the A's with two one run games and the A's are the worst team in baseball right now.

With tired arms and a lineup that runs hot and cold on any given night and a pen full of question marks I just don't see this as an easy road unless things change for the better consistency wise for this team.

Also the Guardians young arms have been keeping them in games, Their team ERA is slightly better than the Twins and their bullpen is better than Minnesota's.  The only thing holding the Guardians back is their offense has once again gone missing.  If they find any kind of resurgence in that area then they could pass the Twins for the division title despite the tougher schedule.

Sure if the Twins do what they should they have the division locked up.  I just don't trust them at all given how the season has played out so far.

Given who is on the guardians roster, I wouldn't say their offense has "gone missing". They just have a lot of very poor offensive players. I doubt their offense will improve this season

[gman]

The Rangers have 2 left handed starters, depending on who Scherzer. With Scherzer I not sure it matters but they will probably have him replace a right hander against the Twins.

Cleveland has 1 left handed starter and both Bieber and McKenzie are on the 60 day disabled list.

I think the Twins can go 6-7 in this 13 game stretch unless they decide that the heart of the lineup needs to be their veterans then more likely they go 4-9.

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, walkstar89 said:

Given who is on the guardians roster, I wouldn't say their offense has "gone missing". They just have a lot of very poor offensive players. I doubt their offense will improve this season

Concur.

Which is another advantage the Twins have -- that their offense has often "gone missing." They have a much better chance of finding it than Cleveland has of creating it.

[madtowntwin]

A 4-2 record against the Guardians would really force the issue with Cleveland in terms of the weak American League Norris Division....I'll have to look at their schedule and see how it matches up. Unless....Win Twins. 

[Blyleven2011]

Sorry Twins fans  ...

I just don't see any advantage  , the Twins will play 500 ball the remainder of the season...

[USAFChief]

On 8/14/2023 at 7:46 AM, Patzky said:

By the time the Lions are in first place, we will know.

2033?

[Vanimal46]

Did we enter the easy part of the schedule now? KC, Pittsburgh and Detroit are tough outs evidently.