Breaking Down the Remaining Twins Schedule

Here's the short version of what we're about to cover: The Twins are in a really good position. A vast majority of their remaining games are either at home, or against bad teams, or both. Here's an overview of how the final quarter of their schedule breaks down in terms of home/road split and opponent quality.

Home vs. Road

• Home games: 24
• Road games: 18

Say what you will about this year's Twins, or last year's, but when playing at Target Field both have been bona fide playoff-caliber teams. The Twins are 33-24 (.579) at home this year, after going 46-35 (.568) there last year. 

When the Twins last did make the playoffs, in the shortened 2020 season, they went 24-7 at home (.774). They had a .568 winning percentage at Target Field in 2019, and .605 in 2018. 

If the Twins match this year's benchmark by playing .579 ball in their remaining 24 home games, they'd go 14-10, meaning they could go 5-13 in their 18 road games and still finish .500. They could go 8-10 on the road and finish 84-78, which frankly should be plenty to win this division.

Opponent Breakdown

• Above .500: 15
• Below .500: 27

Two-thirds of the Twins' remaining games come against teams that are currently below .500. Many of them are well below .500. This is why, according to the website Tankathon, the Twins have the fourth-easiest strength of schedule for any MLB team. Meanwhile, Cleveland has the seventh-hardest. 

When you actually shake out the remaining 42 games by opponent, however, you find a somewhat more sobering picture that basically narrows down to 13 critical games. 

• Rangers: 7 games
• Guardians: 6 games
• White Sox: 4 games
• Pirates: 3 games
• Rockies: 3 games
• Reds: 3 games
• Mets: 3 games
• Rays: 3 games
• Angels: 3 games
• Athletics: 3 games
• Brewers: 2 games
• Tigers: 2 games

The Twins have yet to play the Texas Rangers, who've been leading the AL West almost all year and are 22 games above .500 with a +181 run differential. This is a very good team that only got better at the trade deadline. 

The last time the Twins played a team of this caliber – the Braves, back in late June – they got their asses handed to them and it led to a closed-door meeting. So these upcoming showdowns with the Rangers – who are arguably the current World Series favorite from the AL – will be watched closely. We can fairly treat these match-ups as a litmus test for October. The first meeting is a four-game series at Target Field the weekend after next. Minnesota travels to Texas the following weekend.

Both of those series are followed directly by three-game sets against the Guardians. This 14-day stretch really feels like the defining juncture in the remaining schedule:

• Aug 24-27: 4 games vs. Rangers at Target Field
• Aug 28-30: 3 games vs. Guardians at Target Field
• Aug 31: Day off
• Sept 1-3: 3 games vs. Rangers at Globe Life Field
• Sept 4-6: 3 games vs. Guardians at Progressive Field

This stands out as Cleveland's biggest chance to make a run and turn the tides on their shrinking postseason chances. If they can make hay in their head-to-head matchups against the Twins, winning say five of six, while Minnesota falls flat in seven games against the mighty Rangers, it's plausible the Guardians could make up ground fast in that two-week stretch. At the very least, they can stay close enough to keep it a race in the final three weeks. 

But it bears emphasizing how tough the road ahead is for Cleveland. While the Twins are grappling with the Rangers in that time range, the Guardians will have to deal with the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Rays. They've also still got series ahead against Texas, Baltimore, and San Francisco. A whopping 29 of Cleveland's remaining 43 games (67%) are against teams with records above .500 currently. They also have a smaller share of remaining home games (51%) compared to Minnesota (57%). 

The Guardians are already in a huge hole, trailing Minnesota by 4 ½ games in the division, and as we've established, they have their work cut out for them. If the Twins merely play .500 ball the rest of the way – which truly feels like a given at the bare minimum, given their schedule – Cleveland would need to go 25-18 (.581) the rest of the way to match them in the standings at 83-79.

I'm not going to say that can't happen. Anything can happen. But to say the Twins have a favorable path forward in the AL Central would be an understatement.