The Twins Should Target This Cardinals Outfielder at the Trade Deadline

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins find themselves in a precarious spot as they approach the August 1st trade deadline. They could use another bat in the outfield, but the club already has a glut of options that can’t seem to break through and establish themselves in that role. Could they try to swing a trade with the Cardinals for one of their freezer-burned outfielders?

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

It’s hard to believe the St. Louis Cardinals find themselves near the bottom of the National League standings. They certainly had aspirations of competing when they came into the 2023 season, but an underwhelming pitching staff has caused them to limp into the trade deadline. Whether that means a total overhaul is in the works or just a slight retooling, it’s clear that something needs to change on that roster. 

The Twins, while certainly flawed in their own right, will approach the deadline cautiously, with modest improvements becoming seemingly inevitable. One of their biggest needs coming into this season remains a vital missing piece to this puzzle – that being an outfielder that can mash left-handed pitching. Kyle Garlick didn’t end up being the answer that the team had hoped, and Willi Castro has been a solid contributor thanks to his defensive versatility, but his bat leaves much to be desired. 

Could the Twins and Cardinals match up on a trade in the coming weeks?

One name that could be of interest to the Twins is former top-prospect Dylan Carlson. The 24-year-old currently finds himself on the periphery of the Cardinals’ outfield depth chart, behind the likes of Lars Nootbaar , Jordan Walker, and Tyler O’Neill. With Brendan Donovan also in the fold, and prospect Alec Burleson starting to emerge, that leaves Carlson fighting with at least five other players for four lineup spots on any given day. The club also has utility man Tommy Edman on the injured list, but he would require regular playing time upon his return, as well. 

That has meant a healthy dose of platoon sharing for the Cardinals, which is hardly unique to their club, but there’s a sense that this roster isn’t as balanced as it could be. For what it’s worth, Carlson has excelled in this platoon role. On the season, the athletic switch-hitter has a .293/.414./.431 (141 wRC+) against southpaw pitching, and solid defensive numbers in the outfield (including three OAA in center field). 

If the Twins were to acquire this former top prospect, he would slide into the middle of their lineup when they face left-handed pitching. That would supplant someone like Castro (90 wRC+ against lefties) or Max Kepler (66 wRC+ against lefties). Carlson would also have the ability to hold down center field in lieu of Michael A. Taylor (100 wRC+ against lefties), and he even represents a modest improvement against right-handed pitching (89 wRC+ against righties for Carlson, 77 wRC+ against righties for Taylor).

While Carlson currently finds himself on the outside looking in when it comes to getting the lion’s share of playing time in the Cardinals’ outfield, the club will surely want a strong return package if they were to deal him away. He’s still young, has solid defensive chops and still mashes against southpaws. It’s hard to picture the Twins trading one of their top three prospects at this year’s deadline, but are there other young assets that could be packaged together in an effort to entice St. Louis’ front office?

It sounds like the Cardinals are desperately seeking young pitching. Would someone like Simeon Woods Richardson or Louie Varland entice them if packaged with a young slugger such as Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner or Jose Miranda? Would David Festa, the Twins’ lone representative in this year’s Futures Game, be enough of a headliner to entice the Cards? Or would St. Louis insist on someone like Marco Raya, who is widely regarded as the Twins’ best pitching prospect. 

It’s hard to say whether either club would be interested in such a deal, but nevertheless, Carlson would fit into this current Twins’ roster rather cleanly. Not to mention, he’s under team control for three more seasons. 

What do you think? Should Carlson be a trade target for the Twins? What should they be willing to give up in return? Let us know what you think in the comment section below. 

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[Doctor Gast]

Carlson would be intriguing, to say the least, He should have more upside & has more years of control. We also have a glut of talented OF, who are waiting for more playing time. We need to trade off some of them also.

[LewFordLives]

Please please trade for Lars Nootbaar! That name just screams Minnesota.

Seriously though, I think Carlson would be a better fit than some of the names I've seen thrown about. That said, I don't see a package that would get it done. The Twins organization is not deep in pitching, and they will probably have to add another arm in the off-season. The Twins should be clinging to young controllable arms like Varland and SWR, and I don't see the Cardinals taking more outfielders in return.

[Peter]

Why not bring up one of this years draft picks instead? Twins are playing great and it’s only a matter of time before they put central division title away 

[Otaknam]

Miranda, Larnach or Wallner and a low minor leaguer seems fair for Carlson, who hasn’t proven himself. Raya and Festa should be untouchable since their minor league pitching depth seems thin. Maybe Varland or SWR could be a part of a trade too. But keep your stud minor leaguers. 

[goulik]

Another Lefthanded bat? Rather give Walner and Larnach more chances. If we’re gonna trade for an outfielder it needs to be a righty.

[Otaknam]

A CJ Cron trade seems more likely. Right handed hitter w power. Wouldn’t cost a lot. Only make a splash trade if the team is positioned to make a World Series run, which this team isn’t. 

[USAFChief]

20 minutes ago, goulik said:

Another Lefthanded bat? Rather give Walner and Larnach more chances. If we’re gonna trade for an outfielder it needs to be a righty.

As stated in the OP, Carlson is a switch hitter.

The attraction, though, is as a RH hitter vs LH pitching. 368 career PAs, .310/.381/.477

 

[stringer bell]

37 minutes ago, goulik said:

Another Lefthanded bat? Rather give Walner and Larnach more chances. If we’re gonna trade for an outfielder it needs to be a righty.

Carlson is a switch hitter, with stronger numbers as a right handed hitter. 
 

In addition he’s a capable center fielder. 

[Hrbeks Divot]

Target, yes. Likely, no. Too many other teams out there with pitching depth that the Cardinals want and need. The Twins need to find someone looking for lefty batting outfielders and Twins fans need to be realistic about what we can expect at the deadline. Give something to get something. I don’t think SWR or Louie Varland is going to get it done and the Cards want major league or close to major league pitching.

[Karbo]

If they trade for an OF, who is going to get cut or demoted? I personally would rather see maybe Martin get a shot? But again, this management team won't get rid of any veteran players, even though that's what needs to be done.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

Please please trade for Lars Nootbaar! That name just screams Minnesota.

Seriously though, I think Carlson would be a better fit than some of the names I've seen thrown about. That said, I don't see a package that would get it done. The Twins organization is not deep in pitching, and they will probably have to add another arm in the off-season. The Twins should be clinging to young controllable arms like Varland and SWR, and I don't see the Cardinals taking more outfielders in return.

A little off track, but I don't read too much into any perceived lack of pitching depth in the minors.  The big team gutted the depth by calling everybody up in the last 18 months:
Ryan
Ober
Duran
Moran
Jax
Balazovic
That isn't necessarily a bad thing today.  Three years of rebuilding that depth sounds about right. 

[roger]

If they are doing a deal like this, the headliner must be either Larnach or Wallner.  After watching his brutal night in left field last night, I would hope it would be Wallner.  Add a solid young pitching prospect from Class A or lower and that should be enough to get it done. 

Is it a must to do a deal like this, probably not.  But it also would probably help this year and beyond.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, goulik said:

Another Lefthanded bat? Rather give Walner and Larnach more chances. If we’re gonna trade for an outfielder it needs to be a righty.

He hits LH pitching well and is being compared to Michael A. so I’m pretty sure he is a right handed bat…….turns out he hits from both sides.

My guy is former starter in ‘23 for the Reds, Stuart Fairchild. He’s been optioned to AAA because Friedl has to play everyday and now Steer is playing OF 50% of the time due to all their IF call ups & Votto’s return. He’s squeezed out!

Fast RH bat - plays CF - 15 XBH in 156 AB’s in ‘23 - .743 OPS and he’s at AAA with no way back to big club. Can’t cost much to attain!! Basically a young Michael A. Taylor.

[JD-TWINS]

Cron doesn’t make sense to me when we have a better hitter on the roster in Solano…….if we need a RH bat at 1B we have one. Cron is familiar and has a nice ball juiced ‘19 but at this point Solano seems to be the right guy……been doing it most of 4 months.

[Twinkies are for eating]

Why any Twins fan trust Falvey/Lavigne to make a trade that would benefit this organization is beyond me. Let the next front office make a trade. 

[saviking]

Here is Lewis/Krilloff/Julien/Larnach/Wallner combined statistics in a Twins uniform this year ..

AB 634

Hits  179

Runs 95

HR  28

RBI  97

BA  282

OBP  372

SLG  465

Why the hell would we trade one of these guys to pick up another veteran? They are the foundation of the future. Trade your veterans away if you want but leave the young guys alone.  

[nlites09]

I know you write to get responses.  Why would the Twins trade for another of?  Especially a borderline dude?

 

Let Wallner play, let Larnach play.  Don't trade your young pitching.

 

Get tid of Gallo, move Kepler.  Move Buxton to OF, take a chance on injuries with him.

 

And we have good relief depth, hang woth them.  

 

Yes to Julien at 2b.  Pamper Correa along at ss/dh

 

Move your manager.

 

 

[Guest]

36 minutes ago, Twinkies are for eating said:

Why any Twins fan trust Falvey/Lavigne to make a trade that would benefit this organization is beyond me. Let the next front office make a trade. 

I have never seen anyone with negative reputation points.  I gotta say in all honesty, I'm a little jealous.

[weitz41]

Carlson is one of the two or three OF that would make sense as a guy who hits lefties really well. It's what we would have to give up that makes me wonder. I'd guess Varland, Larnach and maybe an A or A+ pitcher. I might be a bit off, just guessing.

1st we need to move one or both of Gallo/Kepler.

Then sign me up.

[ashbury]

39 minutes ago, Verified Member said:

I have never seen anyone with negative reputation points.  I gotta say in all honesty, I'm a little jealous.

Just to be contrary, I am not downvoting this post of yours. 

[Lou Hennessy]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

Here is Lewis/Krilloff/Julien/Larnach/Wallner combined statistics in a Twins uniform this year ..

AB 634

Hits  179

Runs 95

HR  28

RBI  97

BA  282

OBP  372

SLG  465

Why the hell would we trade one of these guys to pick up another veteran? They are the foundation of the future. Trade your veterans away if you want but leave the young guys alone.  

Carlson is the same age or younger than each of these players. 

 

I also didn't propose trading Lewis, Kirilloff or Julien to acquire him.

[GNess]

Of course, every move comes with the caveat of what do the Twins give up in return? The FO has made some good trades (Joe Ryan acquired for Nelson Cruz) and some poor moves (Mahle - yikes!)

But it is the core job of the FO to build a roster that can win reasonably consistently over time and realistically compete for a World Series. It would be malpractice if a team in the Twins position regardless of the relative strength of the division they are in did nothing at the deadline. The cost of acquiring a decent RP and/or decent RH bat won't/shouldn't sink the future. 

[specialiststeve]

His contract is up at the end of the year.. giving away an asset for an underperforming player.... nah. 

[joefish]

Trading from a position of strength. 

Only that. 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

His contract is up at the end of the year.. giving away an asset for an underperforming player.... nah. 

His "contract" would be up in 2027. Until then, Twins property via arbitration if they choose.

[ashbury]

Switch hitting is great, if it provides proficiency against lefty and righty pitchers alike.

If not, then it's no better than being a platoon bat.  But the Cardinals will be expecting full value for him in trade, making him not much of a value.

In 2019, his most recent season with any significant playing time in the minors, he was a force from both sides of the plate.

As a major leaguer, he's been less than average against right-handed pitchers.  That trend has continued in 2023.

If he can't step up his production batting as a lefty, then he's just another platoon bat covering the smaller '"half" of the workload.  Another "lefty killer" bat like Garlick and a parade of others, albeit with apparently better defense.

If we're confident David Popkins can unlock the missing potential, where the mighty Cardinals braintrust has failed, then sure, trade away valuable assets for him.  I'm skeptical.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Great story. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Two step analysis. First, is the player additive to the team this year and beyond? I would say Carlson definitely is. Remember, no Gallo and maybe no Kepler or MAT next year. I'm not sanguine that Wallner AND Larnach will be solid MLB players next year. Maybe one, but probably not both, and maybe neither. Carlson could really help in 2024 and is controllable through 2027. Would be a good get. 

The second step is the tough one; the cost. St. Louis is clear that they want at or near MLB ready pitching. Wallner or Larnach alone will not be near enough. Nor would Varland or SWR alone. I am not willing to trade Varland because I think he's part of next year's rotation. 

Here's a trade thought - Twins get Carlson and reliever Jordon Hicks. Cardinals get SWR or Matt Canterino, Wallner or Larnach, and Headrick or Henriquez. BTV says Carlson and Hicks for Canterino, Wallner, and Headrick or Henriquez is about even. I'll change it to Carlson and Hicks for Canterino, SWR, and Larnach. That trade I would make. If you change out Wallner for Larnach, I then would want a prospect in addition from St. Louis but then I would make the trade. Would you?

[stringer bell]

I think the decision for the Twins will be affected by the status of Buxton. If he is a DH until he isn’t the Twins need for a CF is pretty strong and adding a major league center fielder becomes a necessity. Losing pitching isn’t ideal, but I think the system can handle it.