What's so Bad About Max Kepler?

[Hans Birkeland]

Max Kepler has been a little better lately, but Twins' fans still want him gone. What's our deal?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

I get why people are sick of Max Kepler. He looked like a transcendent talent eight years ago;  a sweet-swinging lefty who slowly rose to dominance over minor-league competition after signing as a raw 16-year-old wild card out of Germany. He looked great doing everything and the expectations were sky-high. He then treaded water his first few seasons in the big leagues, holding his own offensively, slashing .233/.313/.417, while flourishing defensively. His metrics looked good, his BABIP looked low, and the Twins were so sure of a breakout they gave Kepler a long-term extension, potentially buying out several of his free agent years.

The breakout seemed to come in 2019, when he popped 36 home runs and got MVP votes, but in retrospect we all know it had to do with the juiced ball that year. He’s reverted to the form he showed from 2016-2018 since then, which is worth about 3.0 WAR over a 162 game sample. He still plays great defense, doesn’t strike out and offers 20 home run power. His career OBP is .315, which is pretty playable given that.

So the crusade against him is a bit much, with Aaron Gleeman-types offering the same critiques (poor contact quality, not being as good as we thought, blocking other prospects) and thinking if they repeat them over and over, it makes the case more compelling.

But let’s be real here. The contact quality issue is ever-present, but he nonetheless puts up average offensive numbers, with a career 100 OPS+. He isn’t as good as we thought but who cares; this isn’t a sunk cost... developing average players is good! I had a commenter in a piece I did on Alex Kirilloff complain that seeing Kirilloff having a Kirk Gibson-like career would be a disappointment, so it's no surprise Twins fans are disappointed Kepler didn’t turn into Paul O’Neill . 

Part of the frustration with Kepler is when he makes an impact. His production comes in drips, not bursts (like Byron Buxton). He needs to get his timing right before he’s impactful, but once he does, he’ll give you a hard hit ball every game against a right-hander. It’s not sexy but it is pretty valuable over time, and even this year, a recent hot drip (.298/.355/.614) has raised his OPS by 107 points since he was chastised for his baserunning mistake in Tampa.

And it's not like the Twins’ other options are great. Or, we can't prove that yet. Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach aren’t exactly Mays and Mantle. Wallner is cited by Gleeman ad-nauseum as the “back-to-back Twins minor league player of the year,” in trying to justify giving him runway. Except Gleeman himself has always been the one to put that honor in quotation marks because the award tends to reward players who dominate the high minors but aren’t anticipated to do well in the majors. Previous winners include Randy Dobnak, Kennys Vargas and Zach Granite. And Wallner may fit that bill, as well. Keith Law placed him 15th on his preseason rankings of Twins prospects, with the following comment:

"Wallner has an 80 arm and plus raw power with terrible pitch recognition — the man just does not hit offspeed stuff anywhere near often enough to be a regular, with massive strikeout rates last year: 30 percent in Triple A, 38.5 percent in the majors."

Fangraphs puts Wallner eighth on their mid-season Twins prospect rankings, noting that his 70% zone contact rate would have ranked as the lowest in all of baseball, five percent lower than Josh Donaldson who was the next worst. Baseball Prospectus ranked Wallner tenth, with the note that, “Few hitters find sustained success in MLB making such little contact as Wallner did in his debut.” Where did Gleeman rank him? Fourth.

Us having collective ADHD and wanting novelty and star level performance at all times is no reason to ditch a perfectly average big league regular like Kepler. Sure, Wallner threw out Brandon Belt and his necrotic knees trying for a double once, but Kepler would have made the catch on that same ball without leaving his feet. And do the Twins need more swing and miss in their lineup?

Larnach is a decent fielder, much better than Wallner but without the range of the more athletic Kepler. He also has had a full season’s worth of games in the majors and hasn’t hit for any power, with 18 career home runs in 177 career games. Some of that lack of production happened while Larnach was fighting through injury (more on that next paragraph), but this year his OPS+ sits at a Kepler-ish 92, meaning eight percent below average.

Kepler just hasn’t been that bad, especially if you parse out his injuries in your analysis similar to how we evaluate Larnach. He contributed 2.2 bWAR last year despite playing for two months with a broken toe, ranking between Joe Ryan and Nick Gordon for the season totals in bWAR. While playing with that injury he posted a sub .500 OPS.

This is where Gleeman in particular is most disingenuous. He has never mentioned Kepler’s toe injury in any of his analyses that I’m aware of, but he has mentioned on a few occasions that Kepler is not one to play through injury, viewing him as a player who likes to be 100%. Which is it?

What I expect from Kepler is exactly what he was producing last year prior to the toe injury- .244/.344/.390 with good defense in right field. He’s shown the ability to be a little better than that, but as is, that is a three WAR player, and the sort of production any team should be happy to pencil in from their seventh or eighth best hitter. Look at any team (besides the Braves) and tell me how good their seven-hole hitter is.

Of course, this Twins team needs to get their offense going, and Kepler hasn’t helped much overall. But the focus shouldn’t be on sacrificing defense in favor of mystery boxes. Peter Griffin put it best when offered the choice between a mystery box and a boat. “A boat's a boat but the mystery box could be anything, it could even be a boat!”

Similarly, on a recent podcast, Gleeman mentioned the downside of cutting Kepler was that Wallner and Larnach don’t perform. “Then you can just trade for another team’s Max Kepler.” was his solution.

Kepler is also important to the clubhouse, and you could see he was one of the more emotional players coming out of the much-ballyhooed team meeting, cussing out the plate umpire on a brutal called strike in Baltimore, which I can’t remember him doing, ever, and giving perhaps the most dramatic bat flip for the Twins all year one at-bat later. Max Kepler is playing defense and posting a .730 OPS while not striking out that much. He is not the problem.

As much as you, me and Gleeman all want to see the next shiny toy without enough experience to have a cap on their projection, I’m glad the Twins’ brass stuck to their guns and didn’t do a knee-jerk DFA weeks ago when Kepler was struggling the most.

Kepler is vegetable lasagna, a lower octane Nick Swisher, a younger Mark Canha, a prettier Austin Kearns. And he’s making less than Gio Urshela. Give him a break.

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[Mike Sixel]

Kepler has "struggled" on offense for several years......it isn't about "shiny new toys" which is more than passive aggressive toward those that want change.

Kepler isn't on the roster next year. They have NO IDEA if Larnach or Wallner are legit MLB players. Gallo isn't on the roster next year. They aren't good enough to win the WS or likely any playoff series with this offense......So, they are literally in the same position next year as this, no LF, CF, or RF on the roster that you know anything about (assuming Buxton isn't playing CF regularly).

The FO needs to think beyond just this year, and to do that, they need to learn what they have in two guys that might be as good or better offensively (or might be worse) than Kepler. 

[Hans Birkeland]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Kepler has "struggled" on offense for several years......it isn't about "shiny new toys" which is more than passive aggressive toward those that want change.

Kepler isn't on the roster next year. They have NO IDEA if Larnach or Wallner are legit MLB players. Gallo isn't on the roster next year. They aren't good enough to win the WS or likely any playoff series with this offense......So, they are literally in the same position next year as this, no LF, CF, or RF on the roster that you know anything about (assuming Buxton isn't playing CF regularly).

The FO needs to think beyond just this year, and to do that, they need to learn what they have in two guys that might be as good or better offensively (or might be worse) than Kepler. 

They CAN pick up Kepler's option for next year, and if he finishes strong I wouldn't bet against it getting picked up. Wallner might be good trade bait since there is a good chance he flames out, but his numbers couldn't look better to other teams right now.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Hans Birkeland said:

They CAN pick up Kepler's option for next year, and if he finishes strong I wouldn't bet against it getting picked up. Wallner might be good trade bait since there is a good chance he flames out, but his numbers couldn't look better to other teams right now.

This team needs to move on or assess its ability to draft and develop players. They have zero young OFers on the roster, not one this FO developed. That's not good....

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

They CAN pick up Kepler's option for next year, and if he finishes strong I wouldn't bet against it getting picked up. Wallner might be good trade bait since there is a good chance he flames out, but his numbers couldn't look better to other teams right now.

Go look at the teams likely to sell, and tell me what you'd want back for Wallner, who might be a legit staring OFer with 6 years of control.....

[Hans Birkeland]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Go look at the teams likely to sell, and tell me what you'd want back for Wallner, who might be a legit staring OFer with 6 years of control.....

I would want a lot. A good right-handed bat with team control.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Hans Birkeland said:

I would want a lot. A good right-handed bat with team control.

Good luck finding that on the sellers, and why is a team giving a proven guy up with years of control for an unknown with years of control? 

[Hans Birkeland]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Good luck finding that on the sellers, and why is a team giving a proven guy up with years of control for an unknown with years of control? 

That's how deadline trades work? How did the Nationals get Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps? The sellers market needs to materialize a lot before we can start throwing names out there but Wallner might be a popular ask.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Mike's comment is the other factor to consider that you omitted - where is this team going next year and beyond? I understand being "satisfied" but not thrilled with another Kepler kind of year - .230/.315/.420 in the short term. I think people were very down on Kepler because we weren't even getting that until this recent hot streak. 

The bigger question is where we going with this? Kepler has an option next year at $10 million. That's more than the Twins were willing to pay for Eddie Rosario, who was a better player or at least a better hitter. Short of Kepler continuing this hot streak for the rest of the season, it sure seems unlikely that the Twins will pick up that option. If you start with the assumption that the current team's ceiling is a division title and maybe a couple of playoff wins or one playoff series win, the hope is we would improve going into next year to be a true contender. In order to do that, we need to know if Wallner or Larnach is an upgrade over Kepler and/or Gallo. The only way to find out is to play them on at least a semi regular basis at the MLB level. Keeping both Kepler and Gallo on the roster essentially makes that impossible. So where were headed is to a 2024 season without Kepler and/or Gallo and a complete mystery as to whether our current players can fill that gap. That's not a good way to run a railroad.

I'd be fine with keeping Kepler this year if we traded Gallo and gave Wallner some run in left field. I am not as high on Wallner as are others here because of his high strikeout rate in the minors and his brutal defense, but he did have an intriguing short run last month so I think it's worth giving him a shot. Let's see if he can actually be a solid contributor or whether he's another high strikeout, bad defending, occasional power guy.

[Riverbrian]

If he keeps hitting like this... I will absolutely shut up about him. 

However... at this point... I am still willing to compare and contrast the 2.5 years of poor offensive production against his current 15 day fantastic stretch. 

Right now... Play him like he is hot because he is on the roster and hot. 

Decision dates on Kepler are July 31 and November 10th.

If he survives July 31 but does not not survive November 10th.

He better play well in his remaining months with the team or he was just a clog in the system.  

[Dman]

Maybe Larnach and Wallner are not the answer in right field but we won't know for sure until they get a chance.  My frustration with Max came from all the ground balls and pop ups to the right side.  He just hits it where they are so often and kills rallies it gets hard to watch sometimes.  Yeah he still gets his walks and goes on enough of a HR hot streak to even things out some but over time you start to yearn for something more.  I think that is where most fans are with him.  Yep Larnach and Wallner could be worse but we need to find out and we should have Rosario and Rodriguez close to ready if they get moved up to AA this year.  They need something better than average in right and I don't think Max is the answer.

[Mike Sixel]

To be clear, your article is well written and your arguments have merit. But I really think you are selling the context of this team and next year short. 

[DFlow]

We are missing a large topic in this: roster construction. As of right now, we have three everyday defensive specialists/dead weights in the lineup: Taylor, Vazquez, and Kepler. Historically, Kepler has been able to be considered the defensive specialist with Buck in Center and guys like Garver behind the plate. Now we are trotting out too many easy outs which gives you a below average offensive team. Kepler is fine, but he doesn’t fit the current roster construction. This team desperately needs to either fix Vazquez or get Buck back into CF to justify Kepler.

[Mike Sixel]

29 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

That's how deadline trades work? How did the Nationals get Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps? The sellers market needs to materialize a lot before we can start throwing names out there but Wallner might be a popular ask.

That's not even close to trading a proven hitter with years of control for a minor league hitter. 

[TwinsDr2021]

41 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

They CAN pick up Kepler's option for next year, and if he finishes strong I wouldn't bet against it getting picked up. Wallner might be good trade bait since there is a good chance he flames out, but his numbers couldn't look better to other teams right now.

What you are suggesting is this FO is so bad that it would pick up a 10 million contract for a with a 98, 91, 98 OPS+ the last three years? But you might be right since they signed Gallo for 11 million (87, 121, 80)

 

[TwinsDr2021]

39 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

That's how deadline trades work? How did the Nationals get Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps? The sellers market needs to materialize a lot before we can start throwing names out there but Wallner might be a popular ask.

Can't agree with this at all, unless of course you saying Wallner could be traded for a relief pitcher?

[Hans Birkeland]

24 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Can't agree with this at all, unless of course you saying Wallner could be traded for a relief pitcher?

He could be, but it better be a great one plus a B level prospect coming back.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I saw the title of this article and laughed and laughed expecting the comments to be beyond vitriolic.  I am pleasantly surprised to be wrong.  Please keep up the civility...

In a perfect world, Max Kepler is your 4th OF.  The Twins (or Kepler's) unwillingness to play him in CF hamstrings everyone going forward. 

The article does a great job of addressing the "problems" with Kepler.  Realistic expectations need to be had here.  There is no definitive better option in the minors.  I also think clubhouse impact plays a role here.  Everyone needs to do a cost-benefit check, realize the OF positions in the Twins system are not deep or strong, and any demonstrative improvement will cost resources.  Unless they make a move or two before the deadline, expect to see Max patrolling RF again next year. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 minute ago, Hans Birkeland said:

He could be, but it better be a great one plus a B level prospect coming back.

Not so sure a 25 year old minor league player that requires a 40 man spot is going to return what we hope he does. But it does seem like an overpay for a relief pitcher unless that relief pitcher is cost friendly with some control able years.

[jmlease1]

Why are people so down on Kepler and ready to move on? because since his breakout year in 2019, he's been worse on offense every single full season since. (he's been really good lately, but still below league average for the season, so we'll see where this lands) he no longer plays any CF, which lessens his value, and his defense has often appeared to have slipped (he was pretty good last year, but the numbers this season look less than great, and he didn't perform particularly well in 2021). He's gotten dinged with injuries in 2021, 2022, and again this season.

He's gotten increasingly frustrating as a player since his big year, and while it may be completely unfair to expect him to have another performance like that juiced-ball year, it's not unfair to wonder why we invest so much money and playing time in a corner OF who isn't much of an offensive player. Kepler has been a regular for 8 seasons (including this one) and been an above average hitter exactly twice (one year was the juice ball, the other year was the pandemic shortened season).

Kepler isn't a bad guy or even a bad player...but should he be a starter? He's on pace for less than 2 bWAR this year and even with a hot few weeks is still below league average as a hitter. this team needs more offense, and we have hitting prospects in the minors that have little left to prove there.

[chpettit19]

Why would you expect Kepler to hit .244, or have a .344 OBP? 2019 and 2017 are the only seasons he hit .244 (.243 in 2017 technically), and he's never topped .319 in OBP in any season outside of 2019 when he was at .336. He's shown the ability to be better than a .390 slugger (which he currently is), but he's literally never shown the ability to be a .244 BA, or .344 OBP, player for a full season. Why would you expect that?

And why are you calling him their 7th best hitter? He hits in the top 5 more often than not. Is he good enough to be a top 5 hitter?

And if you're going to use Wallner's MLB K rate in 18 games in 2022, why not use his MLB K rate in 11 games in 2023? It's 16% this year. I certainly don't expect that to be who he is as a hitter, and I don't think he's a star, but give both sides of that data. Wallner may not be a league average hitter, or he may be better than one. We know Kepler isn't better than that. And he plays an offense first position that needs to be better than your 7th best hitter. And I value defense more than almost anyone around here. But not from a RF only, league average (at best) bat.

[nicksaviking]

I think the bottom line is that Kepler has been here eight years, and has hit below expectations in seven of them. Few players get that kind of leash. If the team is looking to upgrade the offense, his spot in the starting lineup is by far the easiest to replace because of the options behind him. Even if Wallner doesn't pan out, they literally have a half dozen options in the high minors they can cycle through to see which ones will.

[Hans Birkeland]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would you expect Kepler to hit .244, or have a .344 OBP? 2019 and 2017 are the only seasons he hit .244 (.243 in 2017 technically), and he's never topped .319 in OBP in any season outside of 2019 when he was at .336. He's shown the ability to be better than a .390 slugger (which he currently is), but he's literally never shown the ability to be a .244 BA, or .344 OBP, player for a full season. Why would you expect that?

And why are you calling him their 7th best hitter? He hits in the top 5 more often than not. Is he good enough to be a top 5 hitter?

And if you're going to use Wallner's MLB K rate in 18 games in 2022, why not use his MLB K rate in 11 games in 2023? It's 16% this year. I certainly don't expect that to be who he is as a hitter, and I don't think he's a star, but give both sides of that data. Wallner may not be a league average hitter, or he may be better than one. We know Kepler isn't better than that. And he plays an offense first position that needs to be better than your 7th best hitter. And I value defense more than almost anyone around here. But not from a RF only, league average (at best) bat.

Good points.

.344 may be on the high side for Kepler, but a .390 SLG is on the low side so I'm just saying give me a .730 OPS however I can get it.

As far as him being the 7th best hitter, you're right he does bat high in the order a lot, which I find pretty annoying, but with the injuries it is what it is.

For Wallner I was just quoting Law for his K rate in 2022, but he's at over 30% in Triple A this year so I'm just not sure he isn't Kennys Vargas with a better arm.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

Good points.

.344 may be on the high side for Kepler, but a .390 SLG is on the low side so I'm just saying give me a .730 OPS however I can get it.

As far as him being the 7th best hitter, you're right he does bat high in the order a lot, which I find pretty annoying, but with the injuries it is what it is.

For Wallner I was just quoting Law for his K rate in 2022, but he's at over 30% in Triple A this year so I'm just not sure he isn't Kennys Vargas with a better arm.

That's fair on the OPS.

I don't know that we can blame the batting spot on injuries. They've always hit him in the top 5 or 6 his whole career. And he's had to hit their because their offense has never been good enough not to need him there. That's not his fault, but when you're taking up a lineup spot that teams typically look to for offense, and you're a league average hitter in the top 5 or 6 in a lineup, it's pretty easy for people to point at you and say you're not doing enough. Lewis and Polanco are the only 2 guys I see injured who'd jump in front of him, but 1 of them would be replacing Julien so it's not like there's a whole lot of injured guys ahead of him.

I'm not sold on Wallner. He's doing better in AAA than I expected, and there's a possibility he's a better hitter than Kepler. There's no real possibility he's a better defender, but this team needs offense, and, in my opinion, should be willing to sacrifice cOF defense for a shot at more offense. The pitching staff leads the league in K rate so they can get away with a little less defense. Kepler wasn't even that good out there before his new found energy burst the last couple weeks.

I've often defended Kepler (including coming into this year) as the victim of circumstance meeting too high expectations. He never reached his expectations, and was on teams where he had to be an impact bat which he simply couldn't do. But we know who he is, and we know what this team needs, and it's the same thing next year's team is most likely to need. Offense. It's easier to replace a corner bat than an up the middle bat when looking for offense. That makes Kepler (and Gallo) the easy choices for first places to look. I don't know if the Twins have the answers on hand in the system, but I know Kepler isn't the answer. I like him, and think he's a decent enough player (I'm fine keeping him as the 4th OFer). He just isn't what the Twins need, unless he's magically unlocked a new level in his age 30 season after incredibly consistent performances for 7 of 8 previous seasons. I find that hard to believe.

[wornsmooth]

2 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

They CAN pick up Kepler's option for next year, and if he finishes strong I wouldn't bet against it getting picked up. Wallner might be good trade bait since there is a good chance he flames out, but his numbers couldn't look better to other teams right now.

He might flame out. Happens more often than not in baseball.

Could be the next .330 hitter also.

He got 8 hits in row, if memory serves, his last couple games with Twins before being sent down.

8 in a row takes more than luck

[David Maro]

Not a fan of Kepler,but this whole team is in love with the homerun. When you look at Buxton and Correa they swing out of shoes. They have done a little better with the strike out since last week. But Sundays ninth inning trying to hit solo homeruns and striking out 3 times. People seem to forget we don't have a LF since letting Eddie walk. Now we want to have plug and play RF as well. If you look around the league teams have 6 or 7 players who play almost every game. This team will not go anywhere with this FO and manager rotating the lineup game after game. Doing this has been a losing proposition. Players need to know I'm playing my position today. Having 5 of 6 players who play every position hasn't worked.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

55 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I think the bottom line is that Kepler has been here eight years, and has hit below expectations in seven of them. Few players get that kind of leash. If the team is looking to upgrade the offense, his spot in the starting lineup is by far the easiest to replace because of the options behind him. Even if Wallner doesn't pan out, they literally have a half dozen options in the high minors they can cycle through to see which ones will.

Sorry Nick, but I think this is part of the perception problem with Kepler.  Whose expectations?  Yours?  Kepler has been fairly consistent in production. You are paying for defense, some power, the occasional hot streak, and consistency,   How many OF have the Twins cycled through in the last 7 years?

Teams are not going to have 8 all-stars every year.  Kepler is not a god, nor is he "holding anybody back".  Guys like Kepler are important.  He would be a starter or rotation player on just about any other team in the league.  Not the best OF on the team, but a necessary piece.  IMO, he gets the brunt of the hate when it should be pointed in other directions
 

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, David Maro said:

Not a fan of Kepler,but this whole team is in love with the homerun. When you look at Buxton and Correa they swing out of shoes. They have done a little better with the strike out since last week. But Sundays ninth inning trying to hit solo homeruns and striking out 3 times. People seem to forget we don't have a LF since letting Eddie walk. Now we want to have plug and play RF as well. If you look around the league teams have 6 or 7 players who play almost every game. This team will not go anywhere with this FO and manager rotating the lineup game after game. Doing this has been a losing proposition. Players need to know I'm playing my position today. Having 5 of 6 players who play every position hasn't worked.

Since AK came up, the OF has been Gallo, Taylor, Kepler nearly every game. Buxton has DHd nearly every game. CC has been at SS nearly every game. AK at first since he came up. That's every position but 3B, which Lewis played every game he wasn't hurt, and 2B which rotates among Julien and Castro and Farmer, and C which is two guys just like every other team....so, 6 guys every game nearly. 

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Sorry Nick, but I think this is part of the perception problem with Kepler.  Whose expectations?  Yours?  Kepler has been fairly consistent in production. You are paying for defense, some power, the occasional hot streak, and consistency,   How many OF have the Twins cycled through in the last 7 years?

Teams are not going to have 8 all-stars every year.  Kepler is not a god, nor is he "holding anybody back".  Guys like Kepler are important.  He would be a starter or rotation player on just about any other team in the league.  Not the best OF on the team, but a necessary piece.  IMO, he gets the brunt of the hate when it should be pointed in other directions
 

I think it's pretty fair to say both Kepler and the Twins expected more than a league average hitter. I think it's pretty fair to say they expected him to have an OPS+ over 100 more than twice in 8+ seasons. Especially when 1 of those seasons had a funny ball, and the other was only 60 games long. You'll never convince me that the Twins or Kepler would honestly say they'd be happy with slightly below average offense out of him in the vast majority of his years. I don't for 1 second think it's only fans expectations that have been missed. You don't hit a guy in the top 5 of your lineup for half a decade and expect them to spit out below average numbers. He's come up short on all expectations.

But, yes, he's a legit major leaguer that would find a spot on many teams. The problem is the team kept pretending he was suddenly going to be a top 5 hitter. And those circumstances have lead to him not meeting expectations. If he were the 4th OFer his performance would be meeting that role's expectations, but even then he'd have come up short on expectations, because all involved expected him to be more than a 4th OFer.

[nicksaviking]

57 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Sorry Nick, but I think this is part of the perception problem with Kepler.  Whose expectations?  Yours?  Kepler has been fairly consistent in production. You are paying for defense, some power, the occasional hot streak, and consistency,   How many OF have the Twins cycled through in the last 7 years?

Teams are not going to have 8 all-stars every year.  Kepler is not a god, nor is he "holding anybody back".  Guys like Kepler are important.  He would be a starter or rotation player on just about any other team in the league.  Not the best OF on the team, but a necessary piece.  IMO, he gets the brunt of the hate when it should be pointed in other directions
 

He's had an OPS over .760 once. Only twice has he had an OPS+ over league average, the second being 2020 which I'm fairly confident in saying was a let down considering his 2019 season appeared to be his big breakout. He was a top 50 prospect, I think saying he's hit below expectations nearly every year is an understatement if anything. Teams don't usually ride out these kinds of players for a decade, particularly not at the most easily replaceable position on the field. .

If he was a Randy Bush, who was a rotational player who'd always give way to the new prospects and free agents, Kepler probably would be beloved. But he's not, they've basically ran him out to start since day 1. They've made a concerted attempt to upgrade every single other position on the diamond, but never right field.