What's so Bad About Max Kepler?

[KirbyDome89]

Complaining about Kepler criticism being disingenuous while framing the side making the arguments as "ADHD fans with outsized expectations, obsessing over shiny new toys," seems odd....

You're expecting 3 WAR production, and if things break right even more value? Kinda hard to take some of this seriously...

[Major League Ready]

My question is ... If he stays hot (relatively speaking), will a couple months of good play net a good offer and if so will they take that opportunity to trade him at the deadline or will they hold on to him because he is hot.  My hope is the hot streak wins us some games and promotes a trade opportunity that is executed.  I am going to be disappointed if they continue to ride this horse after the deadline.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Complaining about Kepler criticism being disingenuous while framing the side making the arguments as "ADHD fans with outsized expectations, obsessing over shiny new toys," seems odd....

You're expecting 3 WAR production, and if things break right even more value? Kinda hard to take some of this seriously...

That line was definitely insulting. 

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, wornsmooth said:

 

He got 8 hits in row, if memory serves, his last couple games with Twins before being sent down.

8 in a row takes more than luck

He reached safely eight times in a row. At least a couple of those were walks or HBP and one of the hits was a jam shot that didn't get out of the infield. 

You can count me among the Wallner doubters, as well. The K-rate is high and the team already fans at a record pace. As far as how the players at AAA are hitting, it wouldn't shock me if Larnach was recalled before they would bring up Wallner. 

Kepler is on a nice run right now. Maybe he can keep it up for a while. I still don't want him on the club next year. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

My question is ... If he stays hot (relatively speaking), will a couple months of good play net a good offer and if so will they take that opportunity to trade him at the deadline or will they hold on to him because he is hot.  My hope is the hot streak wins us some games and promotes a trade opportunity that is executed.  I am going to be disappointed if they continue to ride this horse after the deadline.

If it was me... we wouldn't be enjoying this hot streak right now. 

He would have been off the roster in Early June actually probably off the roster in the off-season. 

If he continues swinging like this for the next couple of months... I still wouldn't be wrong about cutting him in June. 

[Major League Ready]

50 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If it was me... we wouldn't be enjoying this hot streak right now. 

He would have off the roster in Early June actually probably off the roster in the off-season. 

If he continues swinging like thi for the next couple of months... I still wouldn't be wrong about cutting him in June. 

I can see a number of things when considered in aggregate that would persuade the FO to wait until the deadline.

1) The series of events last year that led to an outfield with Contreras and Cave.

2) The hope that the offense does a 180 and the teams has a reasonable shot at postseason success in which case they don't sell off assets.

3) Kepler becomes tradeable which saves the team about $3M

4) Kepler becomes tradeable, and they get a decent prospect back.

He has been the team's best hitter the last 30 days with a 905 OPS and a wRC+ of 150.  If that falls off over the next month, DFA him.  If he continues, he is valuable to both us and other teams.  He will bring a pretty decent prospect if he is plays like this for the next 3 weeks.  

 

[stringer bell]

I don’t see a reasonable scenario to trade Kepler for anything that will help the club now. 

[Major League Ready]

22 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I don’t see a reasonable scenario to trade Kepler for anything that will help the club now. 

So we shouldn't make trades that make us better in the future?  I guess we should not have traded for Duran or Ryan.

[NotAboutWinning]

Expectations. RF is an offense first position. If the Twins had a screaming offense, we could say "yeah but he plays the Target Field RF like no one else". With a mediocre offense, missing that offensive piece is glaring.

[SotaSports in NM]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

This team needs to move on or assess its ability to draft and develop players. They have zero young OFers on the roster, not one this FO developed. That's not good....

I agree with your assessment of the FOs ability to draft and develop...but I can't help but chime in with Emanuel Rodriguez...

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Now that he is hot,

Trade him before he returns to hitting slow grounders to 2B. In the playoffs, you will have both Buxton and Taylor to play late inning D and thus Kepler will not have as much value then.

[Mike Sixel]

37 minutes ago, SotaSports said:

I agree with your assessment of the FOs ability to draft and develop...but I can't help but chime in with Emanuel Rodriguez...

I am a believer, but he's at least two years away. 

[TNTwinsFan]

For those calling to replace Kepler, next year's RHB OF Class leaves a little to be desired. Gurriel is intriguing to me. As is Bader. Perhaps trade market is the way to go?

[Aerodeliria]

The other point, which seems to be an unwarranted drumbeat, is that Max Kepler is some kind of defensive specialist...sorry, but that is 2018 talk. MK is mediocre fielder. He has had some very crushing misplays in the outfield (the incident in Boston comes to mind in the extras) this year and is sporting a sparkling -0.1 WAR regarding defensive metrics. I hope MK stays hot, so we can trade him away for something. I just don't see a massive upside with Kepler.

I used to defend Kepler, but he is not the player I thought he was.

[TwinsDr2021]

10 hours ago, SotaSports said:

I agree with your assessment of the FOs ability to draft and develop...but I can't help but chime in with Emanuel Rodriguez...

and Julien and Jeffers, pretty impressive list for 7 years.

[stringer bell]

13 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

So we shouldn't make trades that make us better in the future?  I guess we should not have traded for Duran or Ryan.

Given that the Twins are in first place and their pitching staff might be the best they've ever had, I think the priority at the trade deadline is to make the club better this year.

[Trov]

I have never been super high on Max, nor super low.  I would go against those that said he is always due for a breakout year, due to low BABIP, and this year without the shift people were saying the BABIP would go up, it did not.  However, because of his defense I was willing to deal with him.  I want him batting near the bottom overall, but we could do worse.

[Linus]

The better question is what is so good about Max Kepler?  He is a defense first player playing an offense first position. The corner OF spots are the only places to change in order to shake up this offense. And it’s not Maxs fault. The FO has failed to find a better replacement. 

[Major League Ready]

32 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Given that the Twins are in first place and their pitching staff might be the best they've ever had, I think the priority at the trade deadline is to make the club better this year.

By various metrics they are about the 15th best team in the league.  1st place and contender are not even remotely synonyms. Many posters used the same "1st place" logic last year.  Apparently, lessons were not learned.  Being in 1st place is an exceptionally poor measure of the relative merit of this team.  The 1st place justification is desperate logic for those fans extremely focused on "this year".  That's a very good way to be bad next year and the year after that and so on.   

Pretty much everyone criticizes the front office when they won't accept reality and move on from a player.  This is the same thing, different scope.  We can invest in the future by playing the numerous young players we have and perhaps selling or we can throw good assets away on a team with an extremely low probability of post-season success.  I would add that they are far more likely to improve from within.  They are not one player they are several players away.  Their best shot is Kirilloff / Larnach / Julien / Wallner / Miranda stepping up and even then their best chance at success is Buxton / Correa and Polanco performing the way they are capable.

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

They CAN pick up Kepler's option for next year, and if he finishes strong I wouldn't bet against it getting picked up. Wallner might be good trade bait since there is a good chance he flames out, but his numbers couldn't look better to other teams right now.

As a guy who’s called for Max being DFA’d more than once this year…….if you go deeper than the occasional eye test and look at the numbers presented Wallner isn’t as good, & Max is reasonable.

I watch most every game and Kepler’s defense in the last week probably out shines anything Wallner could do in 5 years. There’s value in that even though it’s tough to remember when Max taps out to the second baseman.

If he can stay at average OPS of .730  - hit 24 HR’s in 130 games - hit .235 plus, with his defense, he should start v. every RH we face and probably against half the LH as well. He may well exceed these expectations.

Clubhouse positive is part of why he’s been kept - gotta be with his tenure.

If he keeps playing at the pace we’ve seen lately they will definitely pick up his option for ‘24. …….gotta say that part of his problem is staying healthy but some seems to be between his ears - sure seems his mind is right over past couple weeks on O & D…..big hits & big catches!!

[Squirrel]

31 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

By various metrics they are about the 15th best team in the league.  1st place and contender are not even remotely synonyms. Many posters used the same "1st place" logic last year.  Apparently, lessons were not learned.  Being in 1st place is an exceptionally poor measure of the relative merit of this team.  The 1st place justification is desperate logic for those fans extremely focused on "this year".  That's a very good way to be bad next year and the year after that and so on.   

Pretty much everyone criticizes the front office when they won't accept reality and move on from a player.  This is the same thing, different scope.  We can invest in the future by playing the numerous young players we have and perhaps selling or we can throw good assets away on a team with an extremely low probability of post-season success.  I would add that they are far more likely to improve from within.  They are not one player they are several players away.  Their best shot is Kirilloff / Larnach / Julien / Wallner / Miranda stepping up and even then their best chance at success is Buxton / Correa and Polanco performing the way they are capable.

Come on … stick to the topic here … you are at 4 and 5 degrees of separation here 

[Hans Birkeland]

35 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

By various metrics they are about the 15th best team in the league.  1st place and contender are not even remotely synonyms. Many posters used the same "1st place" logic last year.  Apparently, lessons were not learned.  Being in 1st place is an exceptionally poor measure of the relative merit of this team.  The 1st place justification is desperate logic for those fans extremely focused on "this year".  That's a very good way to be bad next year and the year after that and so on.   

Pretty much everyone criticizes the front office when they won't accept reality and move on from a player.  This is the same thing, different scope.  We can invest in the future by playing the numerous young players we have and perhaps selling or we can throw good assets away on a team with an extremely low probability of post-season success.  I would add that they are far more likely to improve from within.  They are not one player they are several players away.  Their best shot is Kirilloff / Larnach / Julien / Wallner / Miranda stepping up and even then their best chance at success is Buxton / Correa and Polanco performing the way they are capable.

Every year the Twins are decent, the knock against them is starting pitching.

Every year when analysts look at the dark horses or favorites going into the postseason, its the teams with the best starting pitching that are highlighted.

Now, the starting pitching has to stay healthy, but imagine Gray, Ryan and Lopez with Ober kicked to the bullpen for the playoffs. This is a golden opportunity with how terrible our division is. If you don't give it a shot, why even try?

[stringer bell]

27 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

By various metrics they are about the 15th best team in the league.  1st place and contender are not even remotely synonyms. Many posters used the same "1st place" logic last year.  Apparently, lessons were not learned.  Being in 1st place is an exceptionally poor measure of the relative merit of this team.  The 1st place justification is desperate logic for those fans extremely focused on "this year".  That's a very good way to be bad next year and the year after that and so on.   

Pretty much everyone criticizes the front office when they won't accept reality and move on from a player.  This is the same thing, different scope.  We can invest in the future by playing the numerous young players we have and perhaps selling or we can throw good assets away on a team with an extremely low probability of post-season success.  I would add that they are far more likely to improve from within.  They are not one player they are several players away.  Their best shot is Kirilloff / Larnach / Julien / Wallner / Miranda stepping up and even then their best chance at success is Buxton / Correa and Polanco performing the way they are capable.

I don’t buy that they are a hopeless case just because they stumbled for most of the first half. The recent past is filled with teams that didn’t look like championship caliber, but turned it around (Off the top of my head—‘19 Nationals, ‘21 Braves and ‘22 Phils). The pitching has been top notch and it’s supposed to be between 60 and 75 percent of the game. There is so much room for improvement from established players (Correa, Buxton & Polanco) and some young guys might step forward (Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien Jeffers).

The Twins have been handed an invitation to the playoffs. I think they should take that invitation. 

[Mike Sixel]

37 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I don’t buy that they are a hopeless case just because they stumbled for most of the first half. The recent past is filled with teams that didn’t look like championship caliber, but turned it around (Off the top of my head—‘19 Nationals, ‘21 Braves and ‘22 Phils). The pitching has been top notch and it’s supposed to be between 60 and 75 percent of the game. There is so much room for improvement from established players (Correa, Buxton & Polanco) and some young guys might step forward (Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien Jeffers).

The Twins have been handed an invitation to the playoffs. I think they should take that invitation. 

That ATL team aggressively moved young players into the lineup because their veterans weren't great.....

[stringer bell]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That ATL team aggressively moved young players into the lineup because their veterans weren't great.....

Rosario, Soler, Duvall?

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, stringer bell said:

Rosario, Soler, Duran?

Maybe it was the following year. My bad. Not that they're bad now....

I think it is fair to want them to add..... Go look at the sellers and find an OF.... And if you aren't moving on from Kepler, why are you moving on from Gallo who has outhit him? Are we really trading assets to fill third for six weeks? 

[Major League Ready]

42 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I don’t buy that they are a hopeless case just because they stumbled for most of the first half. The recent past is filled with teams that didn’t look like championship caliber, but turned it around (Off the top of my head—‘19 Nationals, ‘21 Braves and ‘22 Phils). The pitching has been top notch and it’s supposed to be between 60 and 75 percent of the game. There is so much room for improvement from established players (Correa, Buxton & Polanco) and some young guys might step forward (Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien Jeffers).

The Twins have been handed an invitation to the playoffs. I think they should take that invitation. 

What were those teams willing to invest in terms of trading prospects for help.  I honestly don't know with the exception of the Braves who gambled nothing but came up with two players that played like superstars at the end of the year.  I think we would all be just fine with any acquisitions that cost next to nothing.  Who did the Nationals and Phillies trade for / what was the impact of those players and what did they give up to get them?

Are they example of teams of invest very little and won or are they teams that are examples of teams that won without investing much at the deadline?

[stringer bell]

15 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

What were those teams willing to invest in terms of trading prospects for help.  I honestly don't know with the exception of the Braves who gambled nothing but came up with two players that played like superstars at the end of the year.  I think we would all be just fine with any acquisitions that cost next to nothing.  Who did the Nationals and Phillies trade for / what was the impact of those players and what did they give up to get them?

Are they example of teams of invest very little and won or are they teams that are examples of teams that won without investing much at the deadline?

My point is that it isn't automatic that the Twins should be dismissed as a serious World Series contender this year. Trading away assets that can help them win this year (Gray, Maeda) just doesn't make sense when they have been gift-wrapped a chance to compete in the playoffs. To the OP, is it the same for Kepler? He has some value, but if I'm the GM and I can find an upgrade, I'd take it. I'm not sure who that might be, but as noted the Braves found three outfielders for a minimal price three years ago and won the World Series.

[Major League Ready]

5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

My point is that it isn't automatic that the Twins should be dismissed as a serious World Series contender this year. Trading away assets that can help them win this year (Gray, Maeda) just doesn't make sense when they have been gift-wrapped a chance to compete in the playoffs. To the OP, is it the same for Kepler? He has some value, but if I'm the GM and I can find an upgrade, I'd take it. I'm not sure who that might be, but as noted the Braves found three outfielders for a minimal price three years ago and won the World Series.

You are using examples without illustrating if they are examples of teams that made investments or teams that won without investing.    I don't know about the Phillies.  I don't remember them doing anything.  The Nationals traded for a couple RPs and gave up nothing.  None of the prospects every played at the ML level.  The Braves invested nothing so using these two as an example makes no sense.   Are you going to be happy if the twins pick up someone that is performing poorly as the Braves did in 21?  Don't we already have that situation?  Should we swap one non performing player for another?

The teams you site made very modest investment.  I don't think that's what you are advocating so these examples actually contradict your position.

[Hans Birkeland]

30 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You are using examples without illustrating if they are examples of teams that made investments or teams that won without investing.    I don't know about the Phillies.  I don't remember them doing anything.

 

56 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

My point is that it isn't automatic that the Twins should be dismissed as a serious World Series contender this year. Trading away assets that can help them win this year (Gray, Maeda) just doesn't make sense when they have been gift-wrapped a chance to compete in the playoffs. To the OP, is it the same for Kepler? He has some value, but if I'm the GM and I can find an upgrade, I'd take it. I'm not sure who that might be, but as noted the Braves found three outfielders for a minimal price three years ago and won the World Series.

The Phillies were terrible defensively and went out and got Brandon Marsh, who solidified center field for them. They also got rid of Didi Gregorius and traded for Edmundo Sosa, who was great defensively for them.

As for trading Kepler, it has to be for something that improves the team now. I don't think Lane Thomas is that guy, maybe Connor Joe of the Pirates who can really hit lefties but has no track record of success. Jorge Soler again but he's such a Jekyl and Hyde kind of player I don't think he improves the team much, either with his poor defense.

If the team goes out and gets a bat, it needs to be Justin Turner or better, and even that carries risk outside of the prospect capital required.