Reevaluating the Value in the Pablo Lopez for Luis Arraez Trade

[Nine of twelve]

5 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

Way too early to tell. Arraez has been brilliant; Lopez just okay, so far. That might change. I’d give it at least a full season before giving judgement. 

I'd give it at least a full career before giving judgement.

[rwilfong86]

Not looking good as it stands. I've turned on more Marlins games recently than Twins because the Twins brand of baseball is unwatchable. 

[rwilfong86]

3 hours ago, danielp19653 said:

I'm not sure where the hate towards his defense is coming from either? From what I see on baseball reference he's been a plus defender at second and neutral at first? Sure 4 defensive runs saved isn't incredible but would be a career best for Polanco or Dozier before him? The best defensive season in the last ~11 years at second and a plus DRS doesn't scream bad defense to me 

People who say Luis is poor defensively didn't watch the stream of Instagram videos of him working on his defense all winter. He's not committed an error all season and has looked good turning double plays for the Marlins. 

[Whitey333]

I will miss Arraez for his hitting and his enthusiasm.  He was a fan favorite.  But I guess for most of you that doesn't matter.  This team and their "style" of baseball is totally boring.  They play with very little enthusiasm and drive.  The type of play, swing and miss at all costs produces not much excitement.  I too have watched the Twins since the 60s and the past two and half years have produced some if the most boring baseball I've seen in twins history.  Plus the past couple of.years we sure haven't gotten much.production from some of our so called superstars.  I sure can't see where it shows that they are going in the right direction.  One game above 500 in a sandlot infested division is not a cause for celebration but concern.  It's time for the players to play up to their potential and beyond.

. 

 

[tony&rodney]

Unreasonable to assess a trade after just a few months. Neither Pablo Lopez nor Luis Arraez are one day wonders, making an evaluation now completely a reflex. Check back in four years. If you are the fidgety type - two years.

[Nashvilletwin]

6 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

So I ask, where would Luis Arraez play in 2023 and 2024 for the Twins? 

First Base and the occasional DH batting lead off - every day.

[rickyriolo]

Miami won this trade.

[howeda7]

Bad trade the day it was made. Worse trade now.  Lopez is a commodity. A meh RH starting pitcher.  Arreaz is not. 

[Finlander]

Arraez is not a singles hitter. He's not a homerun hitter. He's a proven elite hitter with around 99th percentile bat to ball skills. Very respectable slugging percentage. He hits in the clutch, and he puts pressure on the opposing team with his unique talent at the plate. I'd much rather have him up in an extra inning game and a runner on second than a Rob Deer/Chris Davis type hitter. We're on pace to set strikeout records, and unfortunately it's not with our pitching.

Lopez is a decent pitcher, nothing elite. His past arm issues balance out any knee concerns with Arraez. I like Lopez. But I do wish a prospect or two (and/or Kepler) could have been added to Arraez to fetch us a second Miami pitcher.

I can't help but think of the Twins dumping David Ortiz because he wouldn't learn to slap the ball to left field, and now we've moved Arraez because he's not a power hitter. Cases of mistaken identities.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Two months in, the verdict from the masses is in—unmitigated disaster of a trade.  I’ll wait awhile before I decide, I’m not so sure.

[TwinsDr2021]

10 hours ago, howeda7 said:

Bad trade the day it was made. Worse trade now.  Lopez is a commodity. A meh RH starting pitcher.  Arreaz is not. 

meh? commodity? if that was true you would think would have had an abundance of them the last few years, and yet they haven't. Is he an elite pitcher? no, if he was it would have cost more than Arraez. But he has went out against the NYY, SD and Tampa for 6 plus innings and shut them down.

[TwinsDr2021]

8 hours ago, Finlander said:

But I do wish a prospect or two (and/or Kepler

It would have taken Lewis or Lee and another couple top prospects (if Miami would have even done that) and I highly doubt adding Kepler would have reduced the prospects required.

[jorgenswest]

That was the kind of pitching performance they need against a good playoff team. Lopez is a playoff caliber starter.

Sadly their offense makes bullpen day pitchers look like playoff caliber starters. If Arraez were in the lineup he would only add to the LOB totals after the batters behind him strike out.

[Nine of twelve]

10 hours ago, Finlander said:

I do wish a prospect or two (and/or Kepler) could have been added to Arraez to fetch us a second Miami pitcher.

If we wanted them to take Kepler we also would have had to send them at least one more prospect.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

15 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

First Base and the occasional DH batting lead off - every day.

Where would Kirilloff play? LF ? 

[Trov]

I hate when people evaluate trades based just on the players involved.  I say this because roster building is just not that simple.  If we did not make the trade for Lopez, we would be having SWR, Winder, Sanchez, or some combo of guys doing pen games for our 5th starter right now.  Lopez just had a great start, in a Twins loss, but not his fault.  But really without Lopez in our rotation right now we would be pretty bad off and everyone would be begging for a trade for a starter. 

Assuming Arraez would have put up same numbers with Twins this year, not sure if he would, but he still would be doing well, he would have maybe helped us a few games.  Would he be playing 2nd or 1st mainly for us?  I do not know, but if he is in the line up, someone else is out, which right now would have been a good thing.  However, we have much more depth in our system of MLB ready or hopefully in near future, that can play 1st and 2nd, more than we have MLB ready starting pitching.  

I love Arraez and he is fun to watch.  He does not fit the current Twins offense approach, not saying that our current approach is good, but our hope is that in next year or two we will hopefully have someone close to or better hitting at 2nd and 1st base.  Sure, they will not have the same average, but their OPS will be similar or better, is the hope. Time will tell. 

It is too early to judge the trade, and if you look at just players involved, you are short changing the fact the organization hopes Lee and AK will be taking the positions Arraez would most likely be playing for them, and the hope both will be overall better on both sides of the ball.  Arraez is still a super talent, do not get me wrong, but we dealt from a position of depth, to a team with depth.  We both had needs and it fit perfect.  I do not agree you cannot look at the extension as part of the value assessment either because we could not have signed Lopez to an extension without the trade for him, at best we would have had to sign him in FA, which may not have happened.  

[ashbury]

19 minutes ago, Trov said:

But really without Lopez in our rotation right now we would be pretty bad off and everyone would be begging for a trade for a starter.

Yes but the proposed trades would all start with Kepler packaged with Pagan for some team's #2 guy.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Yes but the proposed trades would all start with Kepler packaged with Pagan for some team's #2 guy.

As well they should!

[tony&rodney]

16 hours ago, Finlander said:

I can't help but think of the Twins dumping David Ortiz because he wouldn't learn to slap the ball to left field,

The myth that won't die. Ortiz was Davis Arias when he became a Twin via trade (Seattle) and had not done anything to make a case for a position on a MLB roster. He was released, nobody picked him up, and then he received a flyer fromBoston. The rest is history but Ortiz leaving the Twins didn't cause a single teardrop. He did turn Fenway Park into his personal playground -good for him. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

On 6/7/2023 at 5:30 PM, tony&rodney said:

Check back in four years. If you are the fidgety type - two years.

We are coming up on the two year anniversary of the Berríos trade - though I would never confuse you for the fidgety type. 🙂

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

We are coming up on the two year anniversary of the Berríos trade - though I would never confuse you for the fidgety type. 🙂

Correct. I liked Berrios and would have offered him a good contract. Jose throws innings and is a strong #3 pitcher mostly. So, I did not think it was a good thing to trade a good starting pitcher. If Toronto was so keen, I wanted Gabriel Moreno plus a flyer on a young prospect. 

The hype on Simeon Woods Richardson when he was a Mets prospect seemed overblown for the stuff presented. SWR could still be a fair pitcher but he will need at least another year after this year to refine his command and control.

Austin Martin should be a good player for a major league team. I don't know if that is the Twins. He lost time trying to hit for power. You can see (via milb.com the last few years) that he is a pretty fun player to watch when he plays his game. He has some speed, makes contact, and has a decent glove. He just doesn't stand out. Like many younger players, he will need to get an opportunity. 

The Berrios trade is too early to judge still and Arraez and Lopez are both better players in my estimation, which makes it even more difficult to come to an early conclusion. Pitching almost always wins in the end, but not always (Lou Brock trade).

[USAFChief]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The myth that won't die. Ortiz was Davis Arias when he became a Twin via trade (Seattle) and had not done anything to make a case for a position on a MLB roster. He was released, nobody picked him up, and then he received a flyer fromBoston. The rest is history but Ortiz leaving the Twins didn't cause a single teardrop. He did turn Fenway Park into his personal playground -good for him. 

Off topic, but Except for the David Arias part, this is complete myth.

Not done anything? 

Hjs last 3 years with the Twins: 3 years, 340 plus games, almost 1300 PAs, OPS's of .810, .799, .839. Some injury issues, but obvious offensive skill and potential for more. 

He was only 26 his last season as a Twin.

He was released because Terry Ryan wanted to save a couple hundred thousand dollars and gave the DH job to Matt LeCroy.

Ortiz was a good hitter with the Twins. Not the great hitter he became, but good. 

"He did nothing with the Twins" is false.

[twinstalker]

Quote

Salas has yet to face a pitcher younger than himself this season, so some struggles are expected for a young player.

This is basically true of any prospect who provides real hope.  Sure, there are exceptions, and so far, apparently, Salas hasn't faced the exceptions.  Basically, we're looking at a worst possible outcome here.  20 isn't by any means old for A+, but given he played there last year and can't do a damn thing this year, he's for the most part taken himself off the prospect list and onto the depth list, much like Wander Javier did.

The only real hope is there is something seriously wrong, mentally or physically.  Real talent shows itself one way or another, and nothing is being shown here.