The Twins Lineup Presents a Silver Lining

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have largely flirted with distance from the competition by staying just a few games above .500 most of the year. That hasn’t been because of their pitching, but it is the lineup that presents an opportunity for them to run and hide.

 

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Entering Mother’s Day, Rocco Baldelli’s club was among the best pitching teams in baseball. They had gone back and forth with the Tampa Bay Rays for that title, and metrics from ERA to strikeouts and even WAR have shined a positive light on just how good the Minnesota staff is.

That really shouldn’t be unexpected given how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine built the 2023 Twins. The Bomba Squad is long gone, and flipping someone like Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez shows where the priorities lie. This season, the plan was to pitch very well and be strong defensively. So far the former has been exceptional while the latter has left a bit to be desired.

How the lineup factored in from there was a question mark, but the answer should have never been expected to be this bad.

With relatively strong health, Minnesota has seen strong run from players like Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, and Byron Buxton. Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach have slumped, but Alex Kirilloff and Jorge Polanco both provided immediate boosts upon their return to the lineup. Still though, save for the offensive output against the Chicago Cubs, results have been less than ideal.

Minnesota’s 4.38 runs per game checks in below a 4.56 league average mark, and their 93 OPS+ is reflective of the production as a whole. Their 31.7% hard hit rate is right around league average, which doesn’t stand out as a problem, but the swing and miss tendencies have reared an ugly head.

Owning a strikeout rate of 25.2%, the Twins join only the Mariners and Giants among teams to surpass the one-quarter threshold. Walking 9% of the time puts them 11th in that avenue when it comes to getting on base, but the lack of contact is leaving opportunities without capitalization far too often. Having gone 5-for-33 (.152) with the bases loaded to start the year, plenty of runs have been left stranded on the base paths.

That’s where the negativity is right now, but the likelihood that it remains seems rather far-fetched.

Buxton is a substantial strikeout hitter, as is Gallo, but both have shown an ability to drive on-base percentage through walks. Expecting Correa to continue being a career-worst version of himself doesn’t make sense, and the perfect storm of Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach both flopping together seems unlikely as well.

Ultimately the Twins have decided to give away a couple of spots in the batting order in favor of defense. Christian Vazquez was brought in as a strong veteran catcher, while Michael A. Taylor’s value is in providing Gold Glove defense while Buxton only hits. Everyone else has either hit their floor or has opportunity to improve, and reinforcements are on the way.

Although Edouard Julien did little in his brief cameo with Minnesota, we’re something like a month away from seeing Royce Lewis. Brooks Lee could soon be behind him, and Matt Wallner could move from the Saints lineup alongside of a rebounding Miranda. Because of how the pitching was built, the lineup is being given time.

Chicago has shown they aren’t a good team, and Cleveland hasn’t done themselves any favors to suggest they can hang for the long haul. With the Twins pitching being what it is, a lineup that rebounds even the slightest amount is going to put Minnesota creating substantial distance in the rearview mirror.

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[Karbo]

This team so far has great starting pitchers, the lineup, although totally dependent on the long ball, should be adequate, but the pen has me worried. Lopez and Duran are quality pitchers, but Griffith is looking shaky. Nice find with Stewart, but after that is a big day to day question. If I was the GM I would be looking for a couple of reliable 2 inning relievers and this team could be a serious contender IMHO!

[stringer bell]

After their offensive explosion vs. the Cubs, the Twins are averaging 4.65 runs per game and above the mean. They are 11th of 30 in runs per game. I agree that the offense has not been consistent, and there have been far too many games with three runs or less.

[John Belinski]

It appears that calling up AK has really helped the whole team hit better. Ak is hitting .400+ and for some reason the whole team seems to be hitting better since he joined the team. The Twins were the worst hitting team in baseball before AK joined the team. Sometimes it just takes one hitter to hit well and others seem to follow.

Last week I was concerned about the Twins being a winning team, but now think they are headed in the right direction as a team.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins are doing well and the pitching has carried the team mostly giving the offense time to warm up. I was pretty sure that two young guys were big keys for the Twins this season. Both Alex Kirilloff, already showing his glove and stick matter, and Royce Lewis can be dynamic. I did not think we would see both Bailey Ober and Louie Varland this early, and man have they been good.

The season is young and counting out Cleveland, or any team, is looking for bad luck. The Twins need only to take care of their own fortunes.

Right now I'm not seeing consistently good swings from Brooks Lee at AA, and Jose Miranda looks like he is still searching for the ball at AAA. Eddy Julien looked pretty good for the Twins in his very short stint with the team and continues, even in a minor slump, to have good at bats, get on base, and hit for extra bases. Julien does not have a golden glove but all talk of that shortcoming has been blown way out of proportion. Eddy gets to most balls and make the plays. He just isn't as athletic and always looks a little stiff. Matt Wallner may have a rough time getting his next opportunity. He has done a fine job working on his defense and his speed is more noticeable in the field as he has become more comfortable out there. Something tells me that he always believed he would be a pitcher/DH and never worked as hard at playing defense. I think the Twins are sitting on a decent roster collection right now. If Buxton, Correa, and Polanco reach expectations, we could begin to see how good the young guys (Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Julien) are as compliments.

[Craig Arko]

Eagerly awaiting the arrival of a productive Royce Lewis.

[jmlease1]

The lineup definitely got off to a slow start this season, with some players underperforming and others getting pretty unlucky out there (i.e., hard hit balls going straight at someone). Obviously the offensive explosion from this weekend isn't sustainable, but there's a real likelihood that more consistent run support is on the way.

A lot of us have ben very hopeful about Kirilloff; the bat plays, it's just a question of whether or not he's healthy. So far, so good on that end of things, and he adds something a little different to the lineup, potentially. It's still relatively small sample sizes, but he also hasn't presented big splits either, so he shouldn't need to be platooned much. I'll be interested to see if he's still showing this excellent strike zone judgment as the season progresses, because if he's refined that and keeps drawing walks when they don't give him anything worth swinging at, he's going to continue to be a force.

Having Polanco back is also a big addition, even if he's dropped off a bit from his season debut. He's a threat in the lineup and one of the things we saw from Bomba Squad days was how much a deeper lineup could exhaust a pitcher. With Taylor showing a better power stroke this season, Vazquez is really the only zero in the lineup right now.

The big question for me is whether or not Gordon can find his form again. he's still not looking good at the plate and while he's been a little unlucky, he's also been bad, reverting back to some old habits i think. It would be nice to have him be a more solid bench bat, especially with Solano and Castro doing little to impress.

[Vanimal46]

10 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Eagerly awaiting the arrival of a productive Royce Lewis.

As am I. Jose Miranda may have a difficult time getting a call up if Lewis produces right away. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Lots of positives but two potentially worrisome negatives - bullpen depth and lineup depth. The Twins desperately need one more solid late inning bullpen piece. Duran and Lopez are good, high end late inning relievers. Jax is good as a 6th/7th inning guy but not as a late inning guy. Stewart and Pagan seem ok as middle relievers - I can't believe I just said that - but both could have a 6+ ERA month any time now.  Thielbar coming back will help but we need one more guy. It doesn't look like Moran or Alcala is that guy nor is there anyone at AAA. Trade?

I think if Kirilloff is the real deal then the lineup is only one guy short -  a good speed/on base/leadoff hitter type. Is Lewis that guy this year? He might be. Add in Miranda by July as the RH 1B once Lewis takes over at 3B and the lineup could be pretty good and pretty deep. Yes, too much swing and miss. Yes, I would love to trade in Kepler and/or Gallo for a quality RH hitting corner OF but that isn't going to happen. 

Add Lewis on June 1 at 3B, get the 20221-22 Thielbar back, trade for a solid late inning reliever, and avoid injury, and this could actually be a 90-95 win team. Yes I know, the Easter Bunny could also turn out to be real but a guy can dream, right?

[Craig Arko]

18 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

As am I. Jose Miranda may have a difficult time getting a call up if Lewis produces right away. 

 

[David Maro]

Sometime you need a wake up call,as the team got. Sending Miranda to St Paul was needed weeks ago and finally happened. His all around play was showing up every day. Farmer playing 3rd has stabilized the position until Lewis is ready. His at bats have been far better than Miranda's. This week on the West Coast will tell everyone if they are going to compete. The pitching has been good,the offense has been a problem. The other 29 teams know throw pitches above the zone and let the hitters get themselves out. Hopefully they take some of the at bats they had this weekend with them.

[William K Johnson]

Adding Kyle Farmer at third has upgraded that position both offensively and defensively.

[2wins87]

Watching an offense sputter can be really frustrating but the amount of negativity over the past few weeks was kind of extreme for a team that has been pretty solidly over .500 the whole time.

I think Correa actually looks like he's finally coming around this time after a couple of false starts earlier this year.

Kirilloff has definitely been a spark for the offense.  Feeling pretty optimistic about him as a building block for the next few years right now.

Good to see Larnach's confidence building week in AAA carrying over too.  His streakiness has been tough but when he's been good he looks like a building block too.  A more consistent Larnach could really help for building the team next year as well.

I'm not really counting on huge contributions from most of the top hitting prospects for this year, even if they are nearly ready, but I do think that Royce Lewis could really be the key piece in a few weeks.  He can bring another dynamic to the team with both the bat and his speed on the bases, not to mention making Willi Castro redundant and sending him to AAA while also putting Farmer into a bit more of a platoon role where his bat should really thrive. 

I could be pinning a lot of hope on a guy who will most likely be a little rusty.  But if he does rake against minor league pitching during his rehab assignment it could be a tough wait for two weeks before he is likely to be activated.

I wonder what the plan will be with Buxton now that the weather is warming up.  Given the perceived success of their DH plan, I could see them keeping him there exclusively all the way to late August and then just playing him in center a few times a week to get ready for a playoff run.  Still, him getting maybe 2 starts a week in center would be nice from a team building stance, though maybe not worth the additional risk.  I'd especially like to see Jeffers get into the lineup at DH one more time a week to at least get a better assessment of whether his bat really is breaking out this year.

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The optimist in me sees so many underperforming players that you have to think the only direction they can go is up.  That is fun to say when you are in 1st place and 3.5 games ahead (albeit in a terrible division).

It is interesting how injuries continue to play a huge part in how the offense has rolled so far this year.  Kiriloff, Polanco, Kepler, Farmer, not even looking at the pitching staff.

So much luck is required to be a viable WS contender.  Injuries play a huge part of that.

[Ricky Vaughn]

I just can't see Lee being brought up this year. he looks like he is right where he belongs in Wichita. Also he doesn't have a place to play. It would take a lot of injuries to get him on the 40 man. I hope Lewis can take over at 3rd and Buxton can go back to the outfield. This would let Miranda become a !B/DH. He just doesn't seem athletic enough to play 3b.

[DocBauer]

The offense is still built for power and potential OB%, but lacking speed and overall contact. Still, it shouldn't be as bad as it has been at times. And the past few days showed it's potential. 

Kirilloff brings a different approach of better contact and spraying the ball than some of the other hitters in the lineup. That different dimension/approach helps. I think Lewis could help with that as well. But there's little doubt in my mind that a slumping Miranda and Larnach and slow to warm up Correa cast a big cloud over some of the production, or lack thereof, so far.

I think, as constructed, this team is probably going to always be a little bit feast or famine. But there's enough talent and potential that we just should never see the kind of week long stretches we have before when scoring 2 runs is max value. But an entire roster going cold at the same time seldom happens either. 

I think they are going to be just fine. But Lewis, Lee, Julien, and some continued growth by others, will eventually provide this team with a better "contact" approach...while still having power...that I think will give the offense more daily consistency. But no major injuries and just guys hitting to their norms should give the offense more than enough production to go along with this excellent staff.

[Blyleven2011]

I not sure the batting lineup has a silver lining at the moment with so many hitters struggling to produce in batting average , clutch hitting , adjustments  with two strikes and if the manager doesn't like to steal bases , maybe the hit and run would be the answer ... ...

The only way to go is up   ....

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

As am I. Jose Miranda may have a difficult time getting a call up if Lewis produces right away. 

Lewis is a luxury & I don’t expect to see him until he is excelling at AAA…….probably 5-6 weeks from now.

Kiriloff has been a big shot in the arm. CC is coming around over last week with 4-5 doubles & a HR. A guy really lengthening the line-up is Farmer. No more issues at 3B over last 5 games and he’s 7-18 at the plate……Twins are 4-1 since his return!

Gordon is getting playing time in CF regularly which was the plan until Polanco wasn’t ready. He’s getting his act together. 

[Minny505]

7 hours ago, Karbo said:

 the pen has me worried. Lopez and Duran are quality pitchers, but Griffith is looking shaky. Nice find with Stewart

Griffith is getting BABIP'd to death without the hard contact to support concern.

Stewart OTOH brings a world of concern with him to the mound each time he makes that long walk. A 9:8 K:BB ratio is traversing a tightrope without a safety net. 

[Minny505]

6.5 weeks into the season and the pre-season observation is playing out as true that this year's Twins looks like they stole the Dodgers playbook and are executing it mid-market team style.

They stockpiled depth all thru the 40 man roster, and even beyond, to weather the regular season storm of attrition that is inescapable by all but the 2022 Guardians. 

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Lewis is a luxury & I don’t expect to see him until he is excelling at AAA…….probably 5-6 weeks from now.

Kiriloff has been a big shot in the arm. CC is coming around over last week with 4-5 doubles & a HR. A guy really lengthening the line-up is Farmer. No more issues at 3B over last 5 games and he’s 7-18 at the plate……Twins are 4-1 since his return!

Gordon is getting playing time in CF regularly which was the plan until Polanco wasn’t ready. He’s getting his act together. 

I also felt Lewis was a luxury initially, and would be happy to see him in July. I still would be. But it sure looks like we might see him come June 1st. Like Kirilloff, he's a super talented player who can make a real difference. And I'm still not certain where his best spot will be, though I suspect he will begin at 3B once back. He could move to make room for Lee in the not to distant future. He'd be one of the best 2B in all of MLB, and I'd love him there long term. But what about Polanco, and even Julien, who needs to be fit in somewhere? Lewis could also be a hell of an OF!

There is nothing wrong, generally speaking, with a lineup in today's game being built around power and solid OB% hitters with a large number of K's. But you ALSO need those guys who can just put the bat on the ball and HIT. You need a mix to counter all the various pitchers and their different approaches. Otherwise, you get the feast and famine games we've seen for a couple years now from the Twins offense.

Correa, Polanco, Kirilloff, Lewis, and potentially Lee and Julien and even Martin, one of these days, provide those kinds of "hitters"...while still having power themselves...to go along with the dangerous power plant kind of bats like Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, Miranda, Gallo, etc. We still have Gallo for this season. I have real hope for Larnach, and some for Miranda...who I like a lot but worry about roster crunch..and even Wallner as a Gallo clone. 

I still hold out hope Gordon will prove his 2nd half of 2022 was real, as he could be very useful and his speed might still be better utilized going forward. And I fully appreciate Farmer, and would love to find room for him next season, but he's not a full time starter on a championship team, especially with all of these options ready or near ready.

Even in today's game, you need the "hitters" who can make contact in addition to the big power bats. And I think the Twins are pretty close to putting together a killer of a position player roster. Still need a couple young guys to put it together. But even now, AK, Polanco, and Correa are 3 guys who fit that role.

Things are going to get really interesting the 2nd half of this year, and going in to 2024.

[Jocko87]

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Lewis is a luxury & I don’t expect to see him until he is excelling at AAA…….probably 5-6 weeks from now.

Kiriloff has been a big shot in the arm. CC is coming around over last week with 4-5 doubles & a HR. A guy really lengthening the line-up is Farmer. No more issues at 3B over last 5 games and he’s 7-18 at the plate……Twins are 4-1 since his return!

Gordon is getting playing time in CF regularly which was the plan until Polanco wasn’t ready. He’s getting his act together. 

Lewis isn’t a luxury. He’s a #1 overall pick that has shown he can play well in the bigs. Just like Kirilloff if he’s healthy he’s playing with the big club.  

For a roster standpoint they want and need Farmer back in the utility role, Correa and Polanco need a DH or off day at least once in a while. It would not surprise me if Solano was the move for Lewis.  Miranda can fill his role as a better version with options if the need becomes critical. 

[tony&rodney]

10 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

He just doesn't seem athletic enough to play 3b.

Maybe, but he is better at third than he was at first base. At third a player is involved in less than three plays per game whereas the number is close to eight for a first baseman.