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Entering Mother’s Day, Rocco Baldelli’s club was among the best pitching teams in baseball. They had gone back and forth with the Tampa Bay Rays for that title, and metrics from ERA to strikeouts and even WAR have shined a positive light on just how good the Minnesota staff is.
That really shouldn’t be unexpected given how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine built the 2023 Twins. The Bomba Squad is long gone, and flipping someone like Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez shows where the priorities lie. This season, the plan was to pitch very well and be strong defensively. So far the former has been exceptional while the latter has left a bit to be desired.
How the lineup factored in from there was a question mark, but the answer should have never been expected to be this bad.
With relatively strong health, Minnesota has seen strong run from players like Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, and Byron Buxton. Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach have slumped, but Alex Kirilloff and Jorge Polanco both provided immediate boosts upon their return to the lineup. Still though, save for the offensive output against the Chicago Cubs, results have been less than ideal.
Minnesota’s 4.38 runs per game checks in below a 4.56 league average mark, and their 93 OPS+ is reflective of the production as a whole. Their 31.7% hard hit rate is right around league average, which doesn’t stand out as a problem, but the swing and miss tendencies have reared an ugly head.
Owning a strikeout rate of 25.2%, the Twins join only the Mariners and Giants among teams to surpass the one-quarter threshold. Walking 9% of the time puts them 11th in that avenue when it comes to getting on base, but the lack of contact is leaving opportunities without capitalization far too often. Having gone 5-for-33 (.152) with the bases loaded to start the year, plenty of runs have been left stranded on the base paths.
That’s where the negativity is right now, but the likelihood that it remains seems rather far-fetched.
Buxton is a substantial strikeout hitter, as is Gallo, but both have shown an ability to drive on-base percentage through walks. Expecting Correa to continue being a career-worst version of himself doesn’t make sense, and the perfect storm of Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach both flopping together seems unlikely as well.
Ultimately the Twins have decided to give away a couple of spots in the batting order in favor of defense. Christian Vazquez was brought in as a strong veteran catcher, while Michael A. Taylor’s value is in providing Gold Glove defense while Buxton only hits. Everyone else has either hit their floor or has opportunity to improve, and reinforcements are on the way.
Although Edouard Julien did little in his brief cameo with Minnesota, we’re something like a month away from seeing Royce Lewis. Brooks Lee could soon be behind him, and Matt Wallner could move from the Saints lineup alongside of a rebounding Miranda. Because of how the pitching was built, the lineup is being given time.
Chicago has shown they aren’t a good team, and Cleveland hasn’t done themselves any favors to suggest they can hang for the long haul. With the Twins pitching being what it is, a lineup that rebounds even the slightest amount is going to put Minnesota creating substantial distance in the rearview mirror.







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