Week in Review: Slaying Demons and Smacking Dingers

[Nick Nelson]

For the first time in more than 20 years, the Twins clinched a winning season against the dreaded New York Yankees. They followed by taking care of business against a very bad Royals team, with their success fueled by barrage of bombas harkening back to 2019.

It was a good week.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/24 through Sun, 4/30
***
Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 17-12)
Run Differential Last Week: +14 (Overall: +26)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (3.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 23 | MIN 6, NYY 1: Gray Tosses Another Gem, Shuts Down Yanks
Game 24 | MIN 6, NYY 2: Twins Take Season Series with Clean Win
Game 25 | NYY 12, MIN 6: Maeda Struggles in Blowout Loss
Game 26 | MIN 7, KC 1: Bats Pile On Early, Arms Take Care of the Rest
Game 27 | MIN 8, KC 6: Twins Fend Off Late Comeback from Royals
Game 28 | KC 3, MIN 2: Offense Leaves Too Much Meat on the Bone
Game 29 | MIN 8, KC 4: Big Early Lead Holds as Twins Take Series

NEWS & NOTES

The front office's decision to build a rotation essentially seven-deep with MLB-caliber starters has paid dividends quickly, as two Minnesota starters are already down. 

That this scenario raises no major alarms is a big credit to the way this contingency-laden Twins pitching staff was built.

Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle came out of starts on consecutive days last week with arm issues, and both are going to be shut down for a while. Maeda was placed on the injured list with a right triceps strain, replaced by Bailey Ober, who'd been optioned days earlier. For Mahle, the diagnosis is a posterior impingement and a flexor pronator strain, necessitating a month-long (at least) hiatus from throwing and re-evaluation. Louie Varland is in line to replace him.

The bullpen got a boost with the addition of Brock Stewart, a resurgent former Dodgers prospect who is reinventing himself as a hard-throwing reliever at age 31. He's looked great so far, tossing three scoreless innings with four strikeouts. 

Brent Headrick, who plugged in admirably as long reliever for 10 days, got optioned back to Triple-A to make room for Stewart, but his impressive debut will put him at the top of the list when the teams finds itself needing length in the pen again. It currently seems unlikely that Josh Winder, called up Thursday, is going to be able to provide that effectively. He looked brutal in his season debut Sunday.

Finally, Kyle Farmer is officially on the comeback trail. Having gotten his face fixed up after a very scary HBP to the mouth a few weeks ago, Farmer appears set to start a rehab assignment in the coming week. 

 

HIGHLIGHTS

By taking two of three from New York at Target Field last week, the Twins won a season series against the Yankees for the first time since 2001 – meaning Rocco Baldelli accomplished a feat that eluded both Ron Gardenhire and Paul Molitor over a span of 22 years. 

These performances against premier heavy hitters in the American League – they're now 6-4 against the Astros and Yankees – provide some early-season evidence of this Twins team's legitimacy. They are not merely the least bad team in a crummy division.

But let's make no mistake: this is a crummy division. This was reiterated when the worst of the worst in the AL Central came to town for a long weekend series. The Royals arrived having lost seven straight, and the Twins extended that streak to nine en route to a 3-1 series victory that leaves them 6-1 against KC this year.

Propelling Minnesota's success this past week was a powerful breakthrough from the offense, which produced 43 runs in seven games (6.1 R/G) thanks to 13 homers, 13 doubles, and three triples. With the exception of a disappointing showing on Saturday, the lineup was consistently on point, making opposing pitchers miserable with a steady rhythm of good ABs and hearty contact.

 

Leading the way? Jorge Polanco, whose return has made an emphatic impact at the top of the batting order. His switch-hitting power bat is everything the Twins needed, rolling into the season on an eight-game hitting streak before Sunday's 0-for-4 snapped it. 

Starting six of seven games last week, Polanco went 8-for-26 with with three doubles, one home run, and one... ALMOST home run. 

 

Polanco's rejuvenating punch was more than welcome, but he was hardly alone in delivering at the plate. Other notable performances included:

• Joey Gallo bashing his way to five extra-base hits (two homers, two doubles, and a triple) as he continues to make the Twins look smart with his resurgent start.
• Max Kepler shaking off his rough start with an 8-for-22 week that saw him reaching base consistently and making things happen, redeeming Rocco Baldelli's ongoing preference to place him atop the batting order.
• José Miranda launching three home runs and a double after managing just two extra-base hits through his first 22 games.

And of course, Byron Buxton doing his damn thing with a game-changing series of offensive performances that perfectly justified his usage in the designated hitter spot. He went 7-for-23 with four home runs and 10 RBIs in n utterly dominant stretch that reminded us of his absolutely elite slugging prowess.

 

On the one hand, it's kind of a bummer that Buxton is limited to DH. On the other hand, he's played in 26 of the team's first 29 games, starting 25, and he's been a huge factor in their strong start. Who can complain?

The situation is easier to abide with Michael A. Taylor continuing to look as good as he has. His defense in center field is top-notch and Taylor also brings a differentiating quality to the lineup, as he showed with an athletic flurry that included a bunt-double and steal-of-third on Friday. 

As we saw over the weekend, aggressive and disruptive base-running is pretty much the only tool in Kansas City's kit. But it's nice for Minnesota to be able to at least brandish it on occasion.

LOWLIGHTS

The Twins have gotten off to a strong start and jumped out to an early lead in the division while receiving very little from their biggest offseason (re)acquisition, and arguably their greatest talent. Carlos Correa had a really bad April.

Through one month, the shortstop has graded out as essentially a replacement-level player. Outside of a two-game burst in New York, he's been almost devoid of big moments at the plate, churning outs on the way to a .202/.283/.351 slash line. The past week saw him go 4-for-24 with as many GIDP (2) as RBIs. Correa's swing seems slow, as reflected by a spray chart that shows a lot of difficulty turning on the ball and pulling it with authority.

Correa's poor production has consistently come in the most critical lineup spots – he batted second in every start before moving to the three-hole on Sunday – which has an outsized effect on the offense's overall strength. This is not to say Correa should be benched or even moved down in the lineup, but it does underline the upside of how much better this team can be once he gets going.

The other low point of the past week that deserves to be repeated is the mere attrition of the pitching staff. No two ways about it: losing two rotation members on back-to-back days is a really rough blow, especially when one of those guys had the upside of a 28-year-old Tyler Mahle. 

The availability of Ober and Varland mitigates the damage of these injuries, and one could even argue that the rotation will even be improved. All part of the plan. But I don't think that anyone could suggest losing both Maeda and Mahle within the first month of the season was anywhere near an ideal scenario.

Maybe one, or both, can work their way back into a meaningful rotation role this season. To be honest, I doubt it, and I don't know why anyone would feel otherwise. 

TRENDING STORYLINE

Two key questions are looming over the Twins as the calendar flips to May: How long until Alex Kirilloff joins this roster, and how long until Nick Gordon exits it? 

Both outcomes feel inevitable – a matter of when, not if. Their fates are not necessarily directly tied to one another, but ultimately the 2016 first-round pick is destined to supplant the 2014 first-rounder as a permanent fixture on the roster as a lefty-swinging corner bat.

Before the season began it was already apparent that Gordon might have a tough time finding regular playing time on a mostly healthy Twins roster. That's been exactly the case: Gordon's start on Sunday was just his 14th in the team's 29 games, and that includes just three starts in the past 16. In his limited time, Gordon has been one of the least productive hitters in the majors. He's serving no value to this roster at the moment.

The trouble, of course, is that Gordon is out of options, meaning that the Twins can't send him down without exposing him to waivers. They shouldn't let that reality hold them hostage, and I don't think they will, but it does mean they'll probably wait as long as they can to make a move. I see Gordon's timeline as being tied to Farmer and his return.

Swapping in Kirilloff for Gordon (or Willi Castro) doesn't really work, because the barrier isn't roster space but playing time. Yeah, you can open up a spot by waiving Gordon but that doesn't create at-bats because he wasn't getting any, nor is Castro, who ain't starting against righties anyway.

With Gallo, Larnach, and Kepler all playing well, and Buxton implanted at DH, there's just no clear path to any kind of regular playing time for Kirilloff at the moment. His rehab window expired on Sunday and he was optioned to the minors, which is a workable solution for now, but this has become an active situation. If Kirilloff keeps raking in Triple-A it becomes very difficult to justify leaving him down there regardless of what's happening in the big leagues.

LOOKING AHEAD

The AL Central is very bad, and the Twins took advantage of that fact last week to build their buffer to 3 ½ games. They can continue to assert their dominance in the coming week by asserting their dominance against the two other purported contenders in the division: the White Sox, who've already made themselves irrelevant with a truly pathetic opening month, and the Guardians, who are worth taking somewhat seriously despite also looking quite egregiously bad thus far.

TUESDAY, 5/2: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Michael Kopech
WEDNESDAY, 5/4: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Louie Varland v. RHP Dylan Cease
THURSDAY, 5/5: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Lucas Giolito
FRIDAY, 5/6: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Zach Plesac
SATURDAY, 5/7: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Sonny Gray v. LHP Logan Allen
SUNDAY, 5/8: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Cal Quantrill

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[FlyingFinn]

Heard Cory Provus on the radio say that if Kirilloff spends less than 21 days in the minors, starting now after his rehab is over, he actually doesn't use up an option year. I hadn't heard that before. Not sure that makes a difference as once Kirilloff is up we should be expecting him to stay and hit well (and hope he doesn't get injured). If he doesn't, it would surprise me, but then you are at the point of not trusting he will ever make it.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins opened the year with a satisfactory month. The pitching was good mostly and now the team is hitting well. I sure hope the good at bats and sound play continues because May looks to be a much tougher schedule than April.

Chicago and Cleveland have both been in a funk but these teams are competing every day. The seven runs by Chicago in the bottom of the 9th inning today came as a shock to Tampa Bay. Kansas City just seems off a bit. The Royals looked better than the Nationals, but started games slowly and didn't get enough from their starting pitchers. This next week should be interesting given how the Twins struggled versus these clubs last year.

Alex Kirilloff presents an awkward situation. He has not proven anything at the major league level but he also has nothing left to learn or prove in AAA. Additionally, he is a player with the ability to hit for both average and power while playing a good first base. Tough calls will need to be made by the middle of May.

[ashbury]

49 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Heard Cory Provus on the radio say that if Kirilloff spends less than 21 days in the minors, starting now after his rehab is over, he actually doesn't use up an option year. I hadn't heard that before. Not sure that makes a difference as once Kirilloff is up we should be expecting him to stay and hit well (and hope he doesn't get injured). If he doesn't, it would surprise me, but then you are at the point of not trusting he will ever make it.

Sounds correct to me, unless he messed up some detail that I would mess up too.   There is indeed a provision that short total stays do not count.

Of course it's to be hoped that once he comes up, he'll never need to be optioned again, making it all moot.

[Blyleven2011]

I know the article is a week of baseball in review but I'm taking it as a 10 game  review of the homestand  ...

It was a good winning homestand going 6-4  against the nationals ,  Yankees and royals ...  

We extended our lead of the division to 3 1/2 games  ...

The national's series wasn't good losing 2 out of three  , had things been reversed and we had won the series  it would have been  a great homestand  ...

The twins have to take the bad teams seriously  with a killer instinct and put them away , otherwise you will get beat  , I keep preaching a killer instinct  , keep your head in the game at all times , make  adjustments in your at bat with runners in scoring position or with 2 strikes to make contact   , to often the twins hitters fail and leave to many runners left on base by swinging at air ...

Strikeouts drive me crazy ...

Got to cut down on these Strikeouts cause they drive me crazy   ...

Did I say Strikeouts make me crazy ...

A good winning month of baseball  , now use that killer instinct and start running away with the division  ...

I would really like a 10 game plus winning streak to show me that we are legitimate ...

 

[theBOMisthebomb]

"...the White Sox, who've already made themselves irrelevant with a truly pathetic opening month, and the Guardians, who are worth taking somewhat seriously despite also looking quite egregiously bad thus far."

It's too early for statements like this. We are Minnesota and all the losing and choking in this town the last 30+ years has trained me to not even use terms line irrelevant and egregiously bad on May 1 when talking about the competition. This is Minnesota. 

[Doctor Gast]

After the ordeal in NYY stadium, MN went into a slight funk. Fortunately the return of Polanco has gotten us out of it. The return of Polanco has kept Gordon in the OF where he belongs & now he's showing some life. We got the momentum on our side but CWS & especially CLE will try to disrupt that so we need to play them tough, Duran looked human but with warmer weather the team will look better.

I'm looking forward to Kiriloff & Lewis coming back even though it'll cause some issues. Ober & Varland will be fine. If Larnach continues to have difficulty to adjust to off speed he might also be sent down in favor of Kiriloff. We had a good April but May, June & July will be better.

[jmlease1]

Not a surprise that the return of Polanco had a significant impact on the offense: he's a heck of a player and going into the season he was clearly the 3rd best position player on the roster. Losing him for several weeks was always going to be a bit of a drag.

Great week for the Twins. 5-2 is a pretty nice record. Only blemish is Mahle: that injury doesn't sound good to me, and we're very fortunate to have Varland and Ober ready to go. (I'm a little less concerned with Maeda, who I always expected to miss some time and the injury feels less serious)

Big week coming up with division foes, lots of opportunity to put some real distance between us and the rest of the central.

[mikelink45]

The option year for Kiriloff does not matter - if he is as good as projected he should be here and he should be used.  I do not believe in delaying promotions or wasting the youth of potentially really good players. 

[Guest]

Mahle and Maeda are exactly where I thought they'd be at this point.  Now we'll see just how well the FO has developed back-up talent.  Ober has earned the right to stay in a big league rotation, and Louie has promise.  We shall see.

Having AK instead of Castro to rotate through the lineups in LF or 1B is a no-brainer.  Move Gallo to CF, have Taylor for a late-inning defensive replacement.  Stop over-thinking it.

[Peter]

17-12 was excellent month in winning series against Yankees/Astros. Whose cares if we are in bad division. We can blow this open winning series against sox/Cleveland this well. Schedule gets tougher but this is different twins team. Our pitching has been excellent/lineup is good c4 will heat up. No complaints so far.

[MABB1959]

Sad for Majeda and Mahle.  Not sure we got the best in either trade.  Mostly lack of games played.

[wabene]

Not sure why people are saying the schedule gets tougher, that stretch with the Astros, Yanks, and both Sox was supposed to be the daunting part. They did leave a little meat on the bone against the Nationals and Marlins, but overall very good. Headrick has been a pleasant surprise and he may slot ahead of the 22 year old SWR as next man up in the rotation. Here's hoping Maeda is back if/when that is necessary. Mahle sure is a guarded dude, hard to know what we get out of him. 

Man Gray is intense. But man what an artist. This staff is so much more fun to watch than what I'm used to. For years rooting on the 6'6" 1st round pick Gibby to just throw the damn ball and how's about over the plate? Varland is the opposite, no pedigree and just gets after it. We now have 5 starters that I will tune in to watch. 

[roger]

Thanks for the summary, Nick.  It is a refreshing read when someone's writing is brutally honest.

I see their move when Farmer comes back next Monday as Castro going down to St. Paul.  That leaves AK as the one player needing to be activated with Gordon the most likely departure.  That is unless there is an injury to Gallo, Keps, or Larnach?  Gonna be interesting.

 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Minderbinder said:

Mahle and Maeda are exactly where I thought they'd be at this point.  Now we'll see just how well the FO has developed back-up talent.  Ober has earned the right to stay in a big league rotation, and Louie has promise.  We shall see.

Having AK instead of Castro to rotate through the lineups in LF or 1B is a no-brainer.  Move Gallo to CF, have Taylor for a late-inning defensive replacement.  Stop over-thinking it.

Castro has Farmer’s spot on the roster…..he’s 2-3 weeks away.

Gordon - Solano - Larnach & his own ability to prove he’s healthy are the issues blocking Kiriloff from being brought up.

Larnach being sent down while at a pace for 110 RBI seems slim. Gordon hit 27 doubles & 8 HR & batted .289 after May last year……plays 4 positions. Solano is mediocre on defense at either 2B or 1B………an asset against LH pitching! ………….to me, Solano gets optioned before Gordon. Farmer & Miranda can pick up his slack on the roster.

Injury to someone is Kiriloff’s other path.

[walkstar89]

Gordon has the ability to play semi-decent CF which is kinda important given Buxton may not be healthy to play CF all season. I'd prefer to have Kepler / Gallo be the backup CF and get AK up here, as his offense outweighs the defensive downgrade of Kep or Gallo in OF....but I doubt that's what the Twins are thinking

[Dman]

I wouldn't sleep on the Guardians just yet.   They have had starting pitching injuries I believe Civale and McKensie also Pleasac and Quantrel are off to slow starts.   They have had position player injuries as well.  They are bringing up their young stud pitching though and I think they had two AAA pitcher in the top 100 so that could change things for them.  

Last year they started off slow and finished very strong.  I suspect the same thing will happen this year.  One more thing they haven't played any games against KC yet so they have a chance to catch up real quick once they play them.

I don't understand why the White Sox are this bad.  They have a good rotation and decent pen but with all the talented position players they have they are very inconsistent at the plate and generally play poor defense.  Unless they kick in gear real quick the best scenario seems to be a .500 team.

Twins have their flaws as well but hopefully the built in depth and keeping players healthy helps them win more games to build the division lead. and keeps them from falling off a cliff at the end of the season.

Lot's of baseball left. Here's hoping the Twins bats are better in the month of May.

[Minny505]

What an unusual Twins team! ...and in a good way.

Looking at Fangraphs team metrics, they are basically an average offensive team with average team defense and an ELITE pitching staff. ELITE. 

This is like a really good psilocybin trip. I'm completely disoriented from my real world grounding of the being a bottom 5 pitching staff thru most of the 2010s

...and I'm loving it!