Would the Twins Consider a Long-Term Deal with Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis?

[Cody Christie]

Earlier this week, the Diamondbacks agreed to terms with Corbin Carroll after only 32 big-league games. Would the Twins consider a similar deal with Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

The Diamondbacks and top prospect Corbin Carroll agreed to terms on a massive extension earlier this week. Carroll is guaranteed $111 million over the next eight seasons. The deal also includes a $28 million club option for the 2031 season and up to $20 million in escalators between the 2029-31 seasons. The escalator clauses are tied to his finishes in awards voting throughout the deal. 

He will receive a $5 million signing bonus and a $1 million base salary in 2023. Moving forward, he will earn $3 million in 2024, $5 million in 2025, $10 million in 2026, $12 million in 2027, $14 million in 2028, and $28 for the deal's final two seasons (2028-29). In 2031, the $28 million club option contains a $5 million buyout. Overall, the deal buys out the remainder of Carroll's team-controlled seasons and an additional two free-agent years. It is the largest contract ever signed by a player with fewer than 100 days of MLB service time. 

Last season, the Braves signed rookie center fielder Michael Harris to an eight-year, $72 million contract extension with club options for 2031-32. He will earn $5 million per season in 2023-24, $8 million annually in 2025-26, $9 million in 2027, $10 million per season in 2028-29, and $12 million in 2030. His 2031 option is $15 million, and his 2032 option is $20 million with $5 million buyouts. Harris is one of many young Braves players to sign an extension early in their big-league careers. 

Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis have been widely considered the team's top two prospects for the Twins, including being ranked number one and two at Twins Daily. There is some debate about who should be in the top spot, with our voters having them finish in a nearly unbreakable tie. Lee ranks higher than Lewis on nearly every national top-100 list, but the future is bright for both players. Lewis has limited big-league experience, and Lee has a chance to debut in 2023. 

Brooks Lee, SS
Lee is roughly the same age as Harris and Carroll, with his college experience being the most significant difference between the players. Lee could have turned pro in the same draft as the other two players, but he wanted to play collegiately for his father at Cal Poly. In three college seasons, he hit .351/.426/.647 (1.073), and many evaluators considered him the best college hitter in the 2022 MLB Draft. Minnesota showed faith in him during his professional debut by promoting him to Wichita for the team's run in the Double-A playoffs. 

There is a wide range of outcomes for Lee's development in 2023. The Twins will likely start him at Double-A to begin the year, and he can spend most of the season getting comfortable at that level. He can also hit his way onto the big-league roster at some point during the coming campaign. The Braves worked on Harris' extension on the way to him winning the NL Rookie of the Year. Minnesota could do something similar with Lee, but there are no guarantees that he will debut in 2023. 

Royce Lewis, SS/OF
Lewis is two years older than the other players mentioned above, so a long-term deal comes with some questions. He's had two ACL surgeries since turning pro, which means the Twins have team control over Lewis through the 2028 season when he is 29 years old. Does Minnesota want to give Lewis guaranteed money into his early-30s? Would Lewis agree to a deal less than what Atlanta gave Harris? His injury history makes a long-term deal tricky for both sides to find common ground. 

Last season, Lewis returned strongly from his first ACL surgery by hitting .313/.405/.534 (.940) in 34 Triple-A games. He was equally impressive in his big-league debut, with a 145 OPS+ through his first 41 plate appearances. Lewis is known for his positive attitude and strong leadership skills, so that might be something to invest in from the Twins' perspective.    

The Twins are in a different winning window than the Diamondbacks, so an extension similar to Carroll might not be in the team's best interest. Arizona is signing Carroll to be the face of the franchise while they rebuild and add more young talent. Harris' deal is probably closer to what the Twins would consider, but there is no rush to extend Lee or Lewis. 

Would you offer a Carroll- or Harris-style extension to Lee or Lewis? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Doctor Gast]

I'd consider for both but for less. Considering Lee hasn't played a MLB game yet & Lewis's knees. While we're at it let's extend Lopez & Duran. For a guy that normally doesn't go for early extensions, I'm really going hog wild. But I think these guys are special. 

[chpettit19]

I'm probably the biggest Lewis supporter on these boards, and a huge advocate for the Twins doing some of these early extensions to buy out some FA years for well below what market value will be by then, but not even I would give Lewis an extension after back to back ACL surgeries. If he comes back and plays the 2nd half like the star I think he'll be then I'd certainly look to give him a Carroll-type extension next spring, but not before that.

If Lee destroys AA and debuts this season I'd definitely try to lock him into a Harris type extension.

[mikelink45]

Lee, not Lewis.  But is this the year or is it next year for Lee?  We cannot afford to extend too many injury prone players.  Let's see what Lewis does in a full year before considering this.  We don't even know where these two will play.  The roster is not filled with aging vets.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Not sure about Lee, I need to see him at the MLB  level first. Lewis needs to prove he is healthy. Not to mention Boras doesn't normally do extensions that buy out the first couple free agent years. I would be surprised if he was open to doing one.

[farmerguychris]

yes

 

[TwinsDr2021]

I  hate to point out the obvious, but both Harris and Carroll played in the majors at age 21 and will play this whole season at age 22 (Harris the whole season and Carroll until August 21st). Harris was the rookie of the year and 13th in MVP voting. Lee will also play this whole season at 22 but has only played a handful of games above A+, so an extension for him should not happen and will not happen before the end of this season and only if he comes up at some point this season and shows the skills of a future all star. Royce Lewis likely won't play again until he is 24 (June 5th) and then will have to pick up where he left off last year. With that said at this point Lewis and Lee aren't close to Harris and Carroll and  we (Twins Fans) shouldn't be comparing them.

[Tyler from Oregon]

If you can get them for (current market adjusted) deals like the Polanco or Kepler deals, then you absolutely go for it. Otherwise I think you take one more season before you start handing out those contracts, so you can see where they are developing (or not). Agreed with the people who said you absolutely extend Lopez and Duran this season though.

If you can go into 2024 having Lopez, Ryan and Ober locked up for the coming years, you are in good shape.

[stringer bell]

Does it matter that the Twins have a shortstop signed for six years and both of these guys are nominally shortstops? Neither will likely be playing another position until midseason at best. Is Lee projected to be an elite hitter as a third baseman? Second baseman? How about Lewis? Will he end up a corner outfielder, center fielder, third baseman or second baseman? Too many questions for guys who won't have a full year of active time on the major league roster. A year from now might be a better time to make these speculative deals.

[CoasterProductions]

Lee and Lewis but Lee first. I genuinely think that Lee by the end of the season could be the starting 3rd baseman for 2024 and then extend him and Lewis would be the perfect fit at second after Polanco leaves. If we are talking now I would would extend all four of Ryan, Ober, Duran, and Miranda.

[Fatbat]

Yes to both but after this season. They need to break the varsity locker room door down as well as knock the cover off the ball. Lee should fit well at 3rd, Lewis at 2nd and Julien as a super util/backup/DH in 2024. THe best part is that ownership is willing to pay for top notch talent. 

Edited March 17 by Fatbat
Fat thumb

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

Not sure about Lee, I need to see him at the MLB  level first. Lewis needs to prove he is healthy. Not to mention Boras doesn't normally do extensions that buy out the first couple free agent years. I would be surprised if he was open to doing one.

Lewis has had 2 ACL surgeries and is owed $750K at best for 3 years or so & then not much more (maybe $35-$45M total, best case) for 3 more years……..you don’t think Boras wouldn’t take his %, yesterday, on a $111 million deal???

That said, there’s no reason for the Twins to be what I think is irrational, and pay guys because of where they were drafted. Lewis has a dozen or so games in the Show with a probable bad knee going forward and no defined position on defense at this point. Lee has had great success, over 20 odd games in AA. Don’t even understand considering the conversation.

I really like both of these guys and expect great things from both - big pieces of our team’s future!!! Writing checks for $100M plus prior to any MLB success and frankly, 2 years sooner than needed for “an early contract”, just doesn’t add up to good management.

Both guys have to be starters at some position on the Big Team for a season to be considering long term deals. We just traded a guy with bad knees that played for 4 years and had a career BA of .314. One batting title. There were 11 other guys in the game that hit over .290 in ‘22. Do we think Royce Lewis is going to be markedly better than Arraez? Think about it….I get Lewis may not be damaged after his latest surgery but he certainly has the genes to suffer another injury. Also, Lewis has more power, more athleticism. Athleticism alone doesn’t put the ball in play at a .314 clip……..I know he hit .307 or whatever when up for a dozen games …….Arraez hit .365 until the end of July. Just saying we shouldn’t be quite so enamored with guys that are still all “potential based”.

After this year we may be talking about how big of a star Miranda is or Nick Gordon or some pitcher. Can’t blow up our economic future flexibility by following the moves of a franchise like the D-Backs.

[Jocko87]

I think both of them would be turning it down, even after this year.  Lewis with the Boras factor and Lee would wait to drive the price up.  We should certainly wait until we know how the draft plays out.  One of the pitchers would be in line for this money first in my mind. 

[Nine of twelve]

How many times has any team ever extended a player who has played zero major league games?

This was intended as a rhetorical question but after I typed it I reread it and wondered if this has actually occurred. Does anyone know?

[tony&rodney]

Not happening. Neither of these players are top ten global prospects.

Lee has not played a single game in MLB. Lewis has had two ACL surgeries and a week of MLB.

We could just as likely wonder about a long term contract for any other minor league prospect. 

[TruthInDuluth]

Foolish to even consider paying a prospect long term, tough enough paying existing players long term. We tend to imagine once a player shows talent it will improve. One needs only look at Mauer contract to see the mistake of over paying. One great season of 30 plus homers, and then a ten year contract. Never again to hit anything close to that number again

and now we’re talking giving a PROSPECT big money?

[tony&rodney]

54 minutes ago, TruthInDuluth said:

Foolish to even consider paying a prospect long term, tough enough paying existing players long term. We tend to imagine once a player shows talent it will improve. One needs only look at Mauer contract to see the mistake of over paying. One great season of 30 plus homers, and then a ten year contract. Never again to hit anything close to that number again

and now we’re talking giving a PROSPECT big money?

It is possible to be opposed to the idea of long term contracts for Lee and/or Lewis without mentioning Joe Mauer and proving yourself uninformed. Mauer never hit 30 homers. He never had a ten year contract. Mauer made the Twins an incredible amount of money above every dollar he ever received from the team. That is well documented by many. However, there are people who were unhappy to see Mauer get paid, which is true but has nothing to do with the post.

[TwinsDr2021]

15 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

How many times has any team ever extended a player who has played zero major league games?

This was intended as a rhetorical question but after I typed it I reread it and wondered if this has actually occurred. Does anyone know?

I remember in 2014 that the Astros signed/extended minor leaguer Jon Singleton. Didn't really work out, Can't remember anybody else but maybe.

[Rosterman]

You wanna see a good year out of both. Royce is questionable right now. Plus he is getting almost 1.5 years of service time on the IL list, which is a bummer.

Lee has only performed in a few dozen games. Need to establish a position for him going forth. Plus, he can actually play three more seasons before the Twins even have to call him up, remember that. Hopefully that won't be the case.

But, yes, if you can get a guy for $50-60 million into their free agent seasons, always worth the gamble, I think.

[jkcarew]

Lee this spring in his first-ever look at what amounts to AAA+ pitching…

36 K%; 5 BB%; 474 OPS

We might want to tap the brakes on the extension for now. I think we’ll have time.

[jkcarew]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

It is possible to be opposed to the idea of long term contracts for Lee and/or Lewis without mentioning Joe Mauer and proving yourself uninformed. Mauer never hit 30 homers. He never had a ten year contract. Mauer made the Twins an incredible amount of money above every dollar he ever received from the team. That is well documented by many. However, there are people who were unhappy to see Mauer get paid, which is true but has nothing to do with the post.

But, that’s really not the point. We don’t care whether Joe Mauer made money for the owners, we care whether the contract was worth the value received and the opportunity cost over the life of the contract…in term of how it related to winning games.

The commentator obviously doesn’t thing Mauer’s was. And he used it as an example. You might disagree. But, comment was relevant to the topic and not “uninformed”

[dxpavelka]

On 3/17/2023 at 7:23 PM, Nine of twelve said:

How many times has any team ever extended a player who has played zero major league games?

This was intended as a rhetorical question but after I typed it I reread it and wondered if this has actually occurred. Does anyone know?

Astros signed Jon Singleton to a 5 year $10 million deal in 2014.  He rewarded them with 420 plate appearances and a negative .9 WAR