Spring Stories: Who gets the Opening Day start?

[Adam Neisen]

With a rotation suddenly loaded with high-end veterans, who get the Opening Day honors?

Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Spring training has begun, and the season is right around the corner. The start of the season begs the age-old question, who is the Opening Day starting pitcher?

The Twins have never spent significant money or pushed all their chips in to acquire a true "ace," which has left the spot of Opening Day starter as a revolving door of pitchers. The Twins have used three different pitchers in the last three years and eight different in the past ten years. 

This year, however, the Twins are in a different situation. While they still don't have a real #1 that so many desire, they have five starters that all could reasonably start on Opening Day. Who's the most likely to get the nod?

The most significant deciding factor is, more than likely, health. This past season, Sonny Gray was presumed to be the Opening-Day starter after his March 13th acquisition, but he was behind pace in spring training, and the honor was given to rookie Joe Ryan. 

It's possible that a similar situation may take Tyler Mahle out of the running. Mahle was acquired at last year's deadline but threw just 16.1 innings with the Twins before his season ended due to shoulder injuries. As of now, Mahle's spring training is going normally, but it is something to monitor as we head toward Opening Day. His upside is arguably the highest in the rotation, but he's only had one above-average season in his career. His lack of consistent performance and last year's injury makes him the least likely of the four to start on Opening Day.

While he isn't a definitive #1, Pablo Lopez substantially raises the rotation's floor. His talent is similar to Sonny Gray's, and he has shown that he can be a workhorse-type pitcher, throwing 180 innings this past season. Lopez is pitching in the WBC for Venezuela, so his performance and health may dictate his chances for Opening Day. He is also brand new to the Twins, and teams tend to pick veteran starters with more experience on the team, so it may limit his chance to start Opening Day.

Kenta Maeda is clearly another candidate. He was the Opening Day starter two years ago in 2021, coming off a (shortened) season in which he finished second in the American League Cy Young Award voting. But last year was a lost year for him as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. That doesn’t necessarily disqualify him, but there are more worthy candidates.

That leaves the two front-runners: Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray. In 2022, Ryan became the first Twins rookie to start on Opening Day since 1969. Ryan was solid with a 2.2 WAR and a 109 ERA+. He also showed his durability by leading the team in innings pitched with 147. He has no history of substantial injuries and will be ready to go on Opening Day. His lack of a track record of successful pitching is the only thing holding him back. 

Sonny Gray proved his spot as the #1 last year with 2.4 WAR and a 125 ERA+. While he did land on the IL three times, he finished the season with no injuries. Gray is the veteran of the four at 33 years old and has already pitched an entire season for the Twins. Gray has been in the league for a decade and has shown his ability to perform consistently year after year. He also has a reputation in the clubhouse as a team leader.

After looking at team history, previous injuries, and other factors, all signs point to Sonny Gray starting Opening Day. Gray has already pitched in live BP down in Fort Meyers and has no limitations in spring training. His previous time with the Twins and his veteran talent make him the strongest candidate to start on Opening Day. 

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[dxpavelka]

Not sure who will get the start but the closest thing we've had to an "ace" in a generation will probably come into the game in the 8th or 9th inning.

[miracleb]

Agree.....Gray!

(Of course....we need to get all of these guys TO the start of the regular season.....)

[Squirrel]

A poll on this subject is in the forums, started a couple weeks ago, if anyone wants to vote, check out the totals so far

 

[mikelink45]

I say Ryan - he had it last  year and he gave us a good season.  He is going to be with us a long time (I hope) and it would be great to see him out there again as a reward. 

[Squirrel]

I think Gray is opening day starter with Ryan being given the home opener. Although, it depends on how the rotation is set up and how pitchers are doing. If Maeda continues to progress, I could see the Twins giving him one of those games

[Nine of twelve]

We just discussed this a couple weeks ago. What is the point of doing it again?

[Squirrel]

56 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

We just discussed this a couple weeks ago. What is the point of doing it again?

If you don’t want to participate in a discussion, don’t. If you have suggestions for the site or want to make complaints, please use the ‘Questions about’ forum. These kind of comments are off topic and derail the discussion. The original discussion was in the forums, linked above, but it was a poll and not a full article. Thanks.

[2wins87]

Probably where everyone is at by the end of spring training will play the biggest role.  But all things being equal I would agree Gray based on veteran-ness and performance last year.

If there is a rough 1-5 order I think they might continue with Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, and Maeda.  Honestly all 5 of those guys probably have close to equal odds of being the Twins' best starter at the end of the year though (for better or worse).

[HoskenPowell]

I'd go Pagan as a opener. Like the Rays use. 

[Squirrel]

9 minutes ago, HoskenPowell said:

I'd go Pagan as a opener. Like the Rays use. 

While I know you were being funny, I still had to dislike this on two points … the use of an opener and the use of Pagan in that position. It’s just too horrifying to laugh!

[gman]

I think it comes down to health and how everyone is doing. All things being equal, I would give the game to Gray. But I also think there is no wrong choice.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

30 minutes ago, HoskenPowell said:

I'd go Pagan as a opener. Like the Rays use. 

I hope Pagan has a great season for the Twins and surprises 99% of us at TD. I'm pulling for him. 

[saviking]

19 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

While I know you were being funny, I still had to dislike this on two points … the use of an opener and the use of Pagan in that position. It’s just too horrifying to laugh!

I'm glad we are having fun with it because of all the spring training questions, at this point, who opens as the starter is the last thing on my mind. And I share your horror of the word Pagan. Maybe was the Pagan god of stress .. 

[Whitey333]

I'm going with last year's opening day starter in Joe Ryan.  He's earned it plus we are playing the Royals one of the weaker teams.  Ryan was very good against the poor teams and generally bad against the good teams.  Everyone talks about the depth of starters for the Twins.  Years we have decent veterans.  Everyone in the starting rotation has injury issues past or present.  If they perform to their ability the Twins will be fine.  But if they pitch to the mediocre side it could be awful.  It's a staff that can go either way.  I'm hoping they do well because the pitching is so important.

[Iwasatgame6]

I agree that it likely will be Gray.  It makes the most sense.  But I would love for the Joe Ryan Experience to make it back to back years.  As someone else in the comments noted, Ryan is the most likely to be on the team for years to come.  The 2020s could be looked back at as the Joe Ryan decade.

[rationalfan]

My mind weighs 2 things. One is how much do I care about the rotation order to theoretically get an extra start for my best pitcher(s) and/or match up with other teams' best starters?  I don't know that this matters a lot now.  Managers, especially Rocco, like to stick with a schedule and actually look to minimize usage rather than maximize it and since there are so many off days in April, teams have their rotations lose alignment pretty quickly so by mid-May, the matchups are off anyway.  So that leaves the second thing which is what it symbolizes.  When healthy, Gray is the better pitcher so Rocco could send  the message that the best player plays.  However, due to his age and very good start to his young career, Ryan is the most likely to be part of this rotation down the road so the message could be "you're our guy".  

I'm old school enough that I would choose the best pitcher and would go with Sonny which promotes the message of "we aim to win this year and we're starting the season with our best".

[Nine of twelve]

2 minutes ago, rationalfan said:

...there are so many off days in April...

This year's April is atypical. There are only 3 off days from the start of the season on 3/30 until 4/30. Those dates: 3/31, 4/7, and 4/17. 29 games in the first 32 days of the season.

[joefish]

Grey for me. 

[TCSquad]

If the Twins carry the traditional five-man rotation, and there's only one off-day between the Season Opener and the Home Opener (that being the day after the Season Opener) then the #2 starter will open the season at home. But that also means then the Opening Day starter would not pitch against the reigning World Series champs (Astros) at home that first homestand (they'd pitch the lone night game against the White Sox.) So just some extra layers to work out.

[Luke Thompson]

I think Sonny Gray is the correct choice, great article very interesting read.

[rwilfong86]

Whoever between Lopez, Gray, or Ryan that looks better in spring training.

[Brandon]

The starter should be the winner of 2 out of three if paper, rock and scissors .  That’s usually the best way to settle a 5 way tie.

[Doctor Gast]

I think it'd Lopez, primarily because he has had a head start getting ready for WBC. But still it could depend if he'd get enough rest prior to slot into there.

[Lefty61]

I'm lining up rotation for White Sox series, starting with Ryan in Opener, then Gray, Mahle, Kenta, Lopez (vs. former team), back around, Gray gets Home Opener, and White Sox series set up for Lopez, Ryan and Gray.  White Sox being the div favorite, set the tone early with a series win at home!

[TaterTot]

Gray deserves the honor of being the opening day starter, as he was the one of the most reliable twins pitchers last year WHEN he was on the felid. At 33, he likely has only has a few seasons left, although he may well be one of the pitchers who stays around a long time. All depends on how his spring goes though.

[rikker49]

Starting Rotation should be:

1.Gray

2.Lopez

3.Ryan

4.Mahle

5.Maeda