Is Pablo Lopez's Weird "Weakness" Already Fixed?

[Adam Neisen]

Just because he was traded to the Twins, Pablo Lopez may already be in a position to thrive. 

Image courtesy of Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Recently, the Twins acquired Pablo Lopez plus two prospects in exchange for Luis Arraez. While the trade could be unpopular and controversial within the fanbase, Lopez adds depth to a starting rotation with multiple question marks. 

Looking deeper into Lopez's numbers, you might notice something out of place: he has a drastic home/away split  - and not in the way you might think. Due to familiarity, weather, fans, and multiple other factors, a pitcher's stat line is often significantly improved at home. Take Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, for example: 

Sonny Gray
Home - 67.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 10.4 SO/9
Away - 52 IP, 3.63 ERA, 6.8 SO/9

Joe Ryan
Home - 83 IP, 3.04 ERA, 9.8 SO/9
Away - 64 IP, 4.22 ERA, 8.6 SO/9

Pablo Lopez is almost the exact opposite. 

Home - 87 IP, 4.55 ERA, 8.1 SO/9
Away - 93 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9

Lopez had more innings pitched, a higher ERA and WHIP, and worse strikeout and homerun numbers while playing at his home stadium. Why is this the case, and what could it mean for his time as a Twin?

Baseball Savant uses multiple advanced stats to measure the differences between venues, including Park Factor, wOBACon, and BACON. Lopez’s previous home stadium, the Marlins’ loanDepot Park, ranks about average in all three. loanDepot Park ranks even lower for home runs, in the bottom third in the MLB. There is nothing out of the ordinary to suggest it inherently hurts pitchers. 

All of the loanDepot park factors are irrelevant now as Target Field will be his home field. Target Field favors pitchers slightly more than Miami, suggesting a slight upgrade in home-field production. 

But strength of schedule also appears to play a role in his reduced home numbers. Lopez played in the NL East, arguably MLB’s toughest division. At home, he faced off against NL East rivals four times, along with starts against the Padres, Dodgers, and Cardinals. All the teams that Lopez made home starts against have a combined win percentage of .516. For comparison, the Baltimore Orioles have the most challenging schedule heading into 2023 with a .509 win percentage.  

This should be a problem no more, as the AL Central is arguably the worst division in baseball. The Twins are heading into 2023 with the third-easiest strength of schedule at .495. Instead of multiple games against the Mets and Braves, he gets multiple games against the Royals and Tigers. The Twins will play 26 home division games next year, and assuming health, Lopez will get four or five of those starts. 

Every team and every individual player has their weaknesses, but the Twins are lucky when it comes to Pablo Lopez because there is a simple explanation for one of his glaring issues. Lopez should already see improvements by simply playing at Target Field and in the AL Central. By the end of the season, Pablo Lopez could implement himself at the top of the rotation and become a fan favorite at his new home stadium. 

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[Doctor Gast]

It's weird that Lopez's home/ away splits were as bad as they were in MIA. Wish he feels very comfortable at Target Field, where he kills it at home. 

[Karbo]

I'm hoping a healthy Mahle also shows improvement due to not pitching in Cin.

[Muppet]

So he becomes a better pitcher by pitching in the AL's AAAA league? I'd say that just hides his "weakness" rather than fixes it. By that token, all of the Twins are probably not as good as they appear on paper (which might be true). 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Not quite an advantage as we will now be playing a more balanced schedule, but I get your point.  There should be improvement in his home field stats.

The change in schedule doesn't really make a big difference in how challenging it is. The biggest changes in win percentage of opponents from the new schedule is like .008%. A bunch of the games we used to play against the Royals and Tigers will now be against the Pirates and Rockies. A bunch of the games we used to play against the White Sox and Guardians will now be against the Cardinals and Braves. It all balances out pretty closely.

[Trov]

What I like best about this article is the looking deeper into who he faced in those home starts versus road starts. When I look at the specific games, his worst games home and away were against the Mets.  Next worst game was home against the Padres, but one of best road games was against Padres.  

When you look at each team he pitched both home and road Atlanta was basically the same.  Cubs, he did much better at home than in Chicago, could be the park playing in.  Rockies was about equal, no runs allowed either place.  Brewers about equal as well, 0 runs home 1 run road.  Mets he had 5 games only 1 he gave up 1 run in 5 and 3 in 6, other than that he was just bad against them.  Giants he split, doing better on road.  St. Louis he did much better at home.  Nationals he did much better on road in his 2 games, than his 1 home game.

Really, when you look at teams he played both home and away, it is pretty evan.  I think for most part there is not much to look at for the splits. 

[Freddy Stolz]

Mr. Neisen, I feel like these splits don’t really address the core starting rotation problem that the Twins have.
 

While seeing a low ERA can be indicative of a good pitcher, if the number is only low because he’s pitching against the royals and tigers, it doesn’t add the ace that the twins desperately need.

If he shows improvement, and becomes a strong pitcher against good lineups like the Astros and Yankees, then by all means the trade was great, but if he doesn’t separate himself from the pack, and just becomes another 2nd rotation slot starter, I really don’t think he will be what the Twins need to go far this season.

[Blyleven2011]

I'm not sure what I got from this article  ...

If he can't beat the very good teams ( above 500 clubs ) and beats the teams he suppose to then he will not win a playoff game  ...

I hate hearing we are a weaker division and would rather hear we are a lower revenue division  ... 

You got to play the game , play it the right way and you can compete during the season and maybe contend in the playoffs ... 

I'd like pitchers to think they can beat anybody or at least keep us in the game ,  i want a bulldog please because your article is saying he doesn't win as often to the higher revenue teams ......

[GNess]

Agreed playing against lesser teams more frequently should result in better performance. But the link to being an ace and projecting postseason outcomes is beyond speculation. Postseason wins come from such a wide range of factors and plenty of teams (except apparently the Twins for a long time) find ways to win some postseason games lacking an ace or even an ace type performance.

Consider the loss to the Astros 4-1 in 2020. Maeda delivered an "ace performance" but the defense and relievers broke down in the 9th inning.

The Twins like all MLB teams will be fully capable of winning games in the postseason if they manage to get there.

Twins fans seem spooked by the current postseason losing streak. Maybe a fan version of PTSD...

[Iwasatgame6]

16 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'm not sure what I got from this article  ...

If he can't beat the very good teams ( above 500 clubs ) and beats the teams he suppose to then he will not win a playoff game  ...

I hate hearing we are a weaker division and would rather hear we are a lower revenue division  ... 

You got to play the game , play it the right way and you can compete during the season and maybe contend in the playoffs ... 

I'd like pitchers to think they can beat anybody or at least keep us in the game ,  i want a bulldog please because your article is saying he doesn't win as often to the higher revenue teams ......

When the Lopez trade news broke, the first thing I saw people on twitter yelling about was his home/road splits and that he must therefore not be that good or be getting lucky or whatever.  This provided some helpful context to that argument for me.  I don't think anyone mistakes Pablo for a true Ace, but hopefully we'll get more of that 3.00 ERA and strikeout-per-inning guy!

[sun]

Maybe the Marlins didn't provide him with enough run support. I doubt that the fans expect him to be an ace when the Twins only traded 1 player yet received 3 in return. 

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, GNess said:

Agreed playing against lesser teams more frequently should result in better performance. But the link to being an ace and projecting postseason outcomes is beyond speculation. Postseason wins come from such a wide range of factors and plenty of teams (except apparently the Twins for a long time) find ways to win some postseason games lacking an ace or even an ace type performance.

Consider the loss to the Astros 4-1 in 2020. Maeda delivered an "ace performance" but the defense and relievers broke down in the 9th inning.

The Twins like all MLB teams will be fully capable of winning games in the postseason if they manage to get there.

Twins fans seem spooked by the current postseason losing streak. Maybe a fan version of PTSD...

Getting repeatedly kicked in the face and gut punched will do that.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Iwasatgame6 said:

When the Lopez trade news broke, the first thing I saw people on twitter yelling about was his home/road splits and that he must therefore not be that good or be getting lucky or whatever.  This provided some helpful context to that argument for me.  I don't think anyone mistakes Pablo for a true Ace, but hopefully we'll get more of that 3.00 ERA and strikeout-per-inning guy!

Im not expecting an ace.  Id consider him being successful if he put up 3.50 ERA and 170 innings.

[dxpavelka]

7 hours ago, GNess said:

Agreed playing against lesser teams more frequently should result in better performance. But the link to being an ace and projecting postseason outcomes is beyond speculation. Postseason wins come from such a wide range of factors and plenty of teams (except apparently the Twins for a long time) find ways to win some postseason games lacking an ace or even an ace type performance.

Consider the loss to the Astros 4-1 in 2020. Maeda delivered an "ace performance" but the defense and relievers broke down in the 9th inning.

The Twins like all MLB teams will be fully capable of winning games in the postseason if they manage to get there.

Twins fans seem spooked by the current postseason losing streak. Maybe a fan version of PTSD...

Can't win post-season games if you're on the golf course.

[awmonahan]

This article isn't exactly an endorsement of Lopez as a playoff pitcher...here's hoping a tweak or two to his pitching and a better OF defense help him get where we need him to go. 

[miracleb]

The same logic would then translate to last year's ERA from our starters....their ERAs were 'artificially' lower...... because they pitched in the Central division.   

[gil4]

17 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'm not sure what I got from this article  ...

If he can't beat the very good teams ( above 500 clubs ) and beats the teams he suppose to then he will not win a playoff game  ...

It looks like the main point is he can beat anyone as long as he isn't pitching in Miami.  That problem is solved. 

Of course, we really don't know the cause of those weird splits.  Maybe it isn't the stadium, maybe it's home life and will follow him.  Maybe he has a lumpy bed and doesn't sleep as well at home. Maybe he has too many distractions at home and can focus better on the road.  Maybe it's small sample size and will even out.  I didn't check his game log, but maybe the split was caused by one game where he pitched 1-1/3 innings and gave up 10 runs, which this year will happen on the road instead. Maybe it is the stadium, but he will hate Target Field too.  

Or maybe the stadium in Miami is the problem and his road numbers will stay the same and his home ERA will be 2.00 instead of over 4.00, and he will win the Cy Young award and game 7 of the World Series.  (It's February. We're allowed to hope for unrealistic things.)

Edited February 10, 2023 by gil4
changed first sentence